Memory Link Technology+Trends

8/3/2019 Memory Link Technology+Trends

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Memorylink 2011

Technology Trends

The Present as Seen from the Future

Thomas A. Freeburg

10/5/2011


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Memorylink 2011

Prediction is hard especially

when its about the future.

Yogi Berra

210/5/2011


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Memorylink 201110/5/20113

State-of-the-Art - Speed

1

10100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,00010,000,000

100,000,000

1,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

100,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000

10,000,000,000,000

1750 1850 1950 2050 2150 2250 2350 2450

MilesperHour Light

Man-Made Vehicles


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Hard Drive Capacity

10/5/20114

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


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Hard Drive Cost

10/5/20115


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Microprocessor Transistor Count

10/5/20116

Moores Law


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So What Will You Carry in 2010? The personal terminal/communicator will be a single pocket-

sized device that will be pager, telephone, computer, memo pad,

address book, mail-box, book, TV set, --- .

It will include a hands-free two-way audio interface better than

either handset or speakerphone.

Your primary interface to it will be speech.

It will include a camera for visual input of all sorts.

It will include a small visual display (perhaps of the peephole

variety), but will be intended to be used with data glasses. Biometrics will be used to provide the ultimate in security.

Your communicator may recognize you by your BO.


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The Face of Bandwidth Supply Will

Change

The individual user will own a much larger portion of the

network equipment

Networking will become distributed -- CO Switches will

atrophy, and may disappear

Large entrenched carriers (like the telcos) will no longer

dominate

There will be many new entries in the carrier business -

utilities, municipalities, ---

Small regional (or even neighborhood) carriers will appear

Free networking will become a large factor


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Memorylink 2011

Prediction is hard especially

when its about the future.

Yogi Berra

910/5/2011


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Memorylink 201110/5/201110

Abundance ScarcityProfit $

Ever-Increasing

Availability

Ever-Decreasing

Cost


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Memorylink 201110/5/201111

ConsumerGoods

Power Profit

Availability

Cost

IndustrialRevolution


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Memorylink 201110/5/201112

ConsumerGoods

Power Profit

Availability

Cost

ApplicationsTransistorProfit

Availability

Cost


Personal

Computer

Age


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Memorylink 201110/5/201113

ConsumerGoods

Power Profit

Availability

Cost

ApplicationsTransistorProfit

Availability

Cost

AwarenessBandwidthProfit

Availability

Cost


Personal

Computer

Age

Age of

Personal

Bandwidth


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Memorylink 201110/5/201114

When a New Economic Cycle Starts

The previous owners of the newabundance see their world ending;

They try everything to stop it -- FUD,

legislation, other government intervention,

searching for new geographically remote

markets, And they generally fail


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Memorylink 201110/5/201115

New developments in communicationshave always been the pivotal points in the

growth of human society.-Isaac Asimov

Communications technology is driving the

individuals ever-widening sphere of awareness.The Crimean War was the first war covered bynewspapers.

Matthew Bradys photographs of the Civil War excited

necessary support in the North. The telegraph madecentral control of the war possible.

Newsreel coverage of WW2 was the most immediate linkfor much of America.

Television coverage of the Vietnam War had a dramaticand unforeseen impact on public acceptance.

Desert Storm was planned around CNN.

Did TV cause the fall of the Soviet Union?

These are just a few example of the inextricableintertwining of technology and society.


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When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth

will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it

is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic

whole. We shall be able to communicate with one

another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not onlythis, but through television and telephony we shall

see and hear one another as perfectly as though we

were face to face, despite intervening distances ofthousands of miles; and the instruments through

which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly

simple compared with our present telephone. A manwill be able to carry one in his vest pocket.

-Nicola Tesla Colliers, 1926

10/5/201116


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Memorylink 201110/5/201117

The future isnt what it used to be.-Yogi Berra

Ask not what technology can do for you, but rather what it will doto you.

-Tom Peters

If it works, its obsolete.

-Daniel Burrus

Technolo Invention Production evelo ment TimeFluorescent 1852 1934 82 yearsRadar 1887 1933 46 yearsBallpoint pen 1888 1938 50 years

Zipper 1891 1923 32 yearsDiesel locomotive 1895 1934 39 yearsCellophane 1900 1926 26 yearsPower Steering 1900 1930 30 yearsRocket 1903 1935 32 years

Helicopter 1904 1936 32 yearsTelevision 1907 1936 29 yearsKodachrome 1910 1935 25 yearsIntegrated Circuit 1936 1960 24 years

Transistor 1936 1950 14 years

GM Seed 1980 1991 11 years


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Memorylink 201110/5/201118

How US Society Accepts Technology

1

10

100

0 10 20 30

Radio 1918-1948

Television 1945-1965

Cell Phone1984-

VCR 1973-

Internet

Automobile 1892-1922

Genetically Engineered Corn

On-Line Shopping

Years After Introduction

Penetration

%

Source: Electronic Industries Association 1997Nature 29 April 1999

Wikipedia


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Memorylink 201110/5/201119

Each New Technology

Grows Faster

Telephony took 75 years to reach 50 million users

Automobile 45

Radio 38

Television 13

Internet 4

GM Seed 1.5


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Memorylink 201110/5/201120

History of the Automobile

1852 - Otto invents the 4-cycle engine

1886 - Daimler puts engine on a tricycle1892 - Benz builds a motor truck

1900 - The horse still reigns in the kingdom of transportation -

after all, its met the needs of the human race for 5000

years, and theres no shortage of horses

1914 - World War I breaks out, and military planners realize they

cant breed horses and mules fast enough; they adopt

motor vehicles, because they can be manufactured

1918 - Millions of soldiers head home, where they are no longer

satisfied with horses and demand cars, trucks and tractors1921 - Ford Model T goes into full production


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Memorylink 201110/5/201121

The Internet Revolution?

History!


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Memorylink 201110/5/201122

The Four Classes of Response

Time Instantaneous. The response to actions that are a subliminal but necessary

part of the current mental effort, such as each keypress while composing a

letter, must be virtually immediate.

Less than 2 Seconds. Response to actions that are an explicit part of the

mental process should be less than the normal life-time of the user's short-

term memory. When the user has to remember information throughout

several interactions, this limit is very important.

2 to 10 Seconds. After a major psychological "closure," the user is in a state

of lowered mental energy, and is prepared to simply wait for the next action,

as long as the interval is not long enough for impatience to set in. This

interval is equivalent to e.g., the ringing of the telephone just dialed, or the

computer's response to a detailed data-base inquiry.

Greater than 10 seconds. In general, delays longer than 15 seconds make it

very difficult to carry out any interactive operation. For a busy person, mental

captivity for this period is unacceptable.

i l d l f h


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Memorylink 201110/5/201123

A Simple Model of the Human

Information Processing Mechanism

Perception

Focus of Attention

Long Term Memory

CognitionRecall

7 Items (+or - 2)6 bits

Source: Miller, The Psychological Review, March 1956

Sense Organs


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Memorylink 201110/5/201124

With the advent of broadband connections,the Internet is already inside the human

cogitation loop. There are many instances

where we can use the Net to supply the

choices for comparative reasoning, instead

of taking the time to memorize them all.

Machine-Enhanced Brain


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Memorylink 201110/5/201125

Rate of Growth

Source: How Much Information? 2003,

0.00E+00

5.00E+18

1.00E+19

1.50E+19

2.00E+19

2.50E+19

3.00E+19

1995 2000 2005 2010

New Inform ation,

bytes

1.00E+13

1.00E+14

1.00E+15

1.00E+16

1.00E+17

1.00E+18

1.00E+19

1.00E+20

1995 2000 2005 2010

New Inform ation,

bytes

Contents of Library of

Con ress, b tes


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Memorylink 201110/5/201126

Yahoo! and OMD Reveal Study Depicting Life Withoutthe Internet

Wednesday September 22, 7:30 am ET

Study Participants Suffered Withdrawal Symptoms, Feelings of Loss When

Deprived of Web Access for Two Weeks

"This study is entirely indicative of the myriad ways that the Internet, in just ten short

years of mainstream consumer consumption, has irrevocably changed the daily lives

of consumers. This is true to the extent that it was incredibly difficult to recruitparticipants for this study, as people weren't willing to be without the Internet for two

weeks," said Wenda Harris Millard, chief sales officer, Yahoo!.


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Memorylink 2011

The Internet The greatestinformation resource in human

history


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Memorylink 201110/5/201128

Global Internet Traffic

Terabytes per Hour

Down Up

Surfing 520 52Email 78 78

File Sharing 60 60

Totals 658 190

Total Traffic 1.8 Terabits/sec

Source: How Much Information? 2003,

Email

File Sharing

Surfing


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Memorylink 201110/5/201129

Private Use Dominates

Source - The State of the Net

1998 71.34952 57.07962 73

1999 62.149592000 66.09808

2001 69.17318

2002 71.56806

2003 73.4332 Residentia

2004 74.88577 Corporate

2005 76.01703 Other2006 76.89806

2007 77.58421

2008 78.11858

2009 78.53475

2010 78.85886

Residential,75%

Corporate,15%Other,10%


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Memorylink 2011

Voice and Data Per User

10/5/201130


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Memorylink 201110/5/201131

Content Generation is

a Cottage Industry

Blogs Personal Web Pages

YouTube et al Neighborhood ISP

Local ads

Communications is Focused


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Memorylink 201110/5/201132

Communications is Focused

on the Individual

High Personalization Communications focused on the

intersection of individual, place, social

context, and time

Always present Smartphone


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Memorylink 201110/5/201133

Whats Happened to Television?

Youtube and its like have already begun todominate viewing.

In spite of time-shifting, Internet-based

viewing includes almost all movies, currentbroadcast entertainment (perhaps with a 24-

hour delay), and has overtaken broadcastnews in popularity.


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Memorylink 201110/5/201134

As a direct result of high-speed communications, the power to disseminate,

capture and use information no longer is centralized. Instead, information andthe power to unleash and deploy it is becoming highly distributedwhich has

far-reaching implications.

Real-time information is widespread. We all have access webcams to scantraffic before we get into ourcars. With high-speed Internet, such applications

are already ubiquitous

.

With the advent of MP3, Amazon, and iTunes, copyright laws as weve knownthem already have become obsolete. This will generate new ways for artists and

other people who create intellectual property to safeguard what they produce.

The avalanche of information, entertainment and other desirable digitalcommodities will give rise to highly sophisticated personal search agents that

learn to identify and retrieve exactly what you want.


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Memorylink 201110/5/201135

By 2020, the character of learning and educationperhaps even the very nature of

thought itself...will have changed radically. With the Internet serving up content as fastas we can consume it, information is available to drive our thought processes as soon as

we access it.greatly enhancing learning. It only awaits the awaking of our

institutions of education and the students are already ahead of them.

In other words, our ability to access information for the first time keeps pace with our

ability to process it, utilize it and incorporate it into our work and our decision-

makingcreating a new mode and level of human cognition.


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Memorylink 201110/5/201136

With the heightened capacity to deploy new information comes new risks. We must not

lose our ability to think critically. Instead, we must safeguard our critical faculties,

taking care not to sacrifice them at the altar of technology.

If the high-speed Internet enables us to use information before we even think about it,

the need then becomes evaluating it...and developing tools to help do so.

By 2020, the bandwidth to achieve all those things will no longer be controlled and

doled out by thephone company, or any other corporate structure. Instead it will be

like air, giving rise to the BPAthe Bandwidth Protection Agency.

The BPA will protect us from an endless, inescapable stream of noxious bandwidth

pollution, which we know today as spam, malware, and pornography.


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Memorylink 201110/5/201137

And as long as were talking about the BPA, how about the CDDC...the Center for

Digital Disease Control? Well need the CDDC to check those nasty viruses that will

continue to be propagated through careless Internet contact.

Just like infections that attack the human body, numerous viruses already have

established a foothold in cyberspace. To combat them, many of us already know the

basic principle of cyber-hygiene:

Be sure you know whats in anything you consume, and keep your manipulative agents

clean!

Does this sound just like what we tell our kids about personal hygiene? We should beteaching them digital hygiene too, just as we teach them to wash their hands.


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Memorylink 201110/5/201138

The ubiquity of bandwidth and the ensuing decentralization of information and power now

characterize not only communications, but virtually all forms of endeavor. I view this move

toward decentralization as the central fact of the world circa 2020even more, as the defining

reality of life during the new century.

This dynamic continues to play out in the economic and political arena, as Karl Marxs theories

about an economic system governed by a centralized authority and a complex set of rules

continue to fall by the wayside.

In retrospect, the foremost achievement of Marx was proving that Adam Smith was right:

Human systems, economic and otherwise, work best when individuals are working independently

to advance their own best interests.

Just as societies based on the Marxist paradigm continue to collapse under their ownwreckageincluding the one just south of Floridathe technology world will increasingly

resemble Smiths model of decentralized, distributed power serving the unique needs of each

individual.


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Memorylink 201110/5/201139

1750 - Franklin invents lightning rod

1800 - Volta invents the battery

1819 - Oersted shows that electricity produces magnetism1831 - Faraday shows that magnetism produces electricity

1842 - Henry detects spark transmission over a distance of 30 feet

1865 - Maxwell publishes first unified theory of electricity and

magnetism1886 - Hertz validates Maxwells theory by building radio

1887 - Michelson and Morley disprove the ether theory

1901 - Marconi shows transatlantic radio

1906 - Marconi, commenting on the new idea of broadcasting, asksWho would pay for a message with no recipient?

1912 - Titanic sinks; SOS is used for the first time; international

law is enacted requiring full-time radio watch

1918 - Commercial Radio Broadcasting Begins

History of Radio


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Memorylink 201110/5/201140

History of Teleportation1934 - Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Effect derived

1993 - Bennet et al propose quantum teleportation based on theEinstein-Podolsky-Rosen effect

1995 - Braunstein sizes the communications problem as 1032 bits

1998 - Zeilinger et al and DeMartini et al demonstrate quantum

teleportation in independent experiments


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Memorylink 201110/5/201141

Total Capacity of the Internet


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teleportation in independent experiments2022 - Pair of dice transported from St. Petersburg to Washington


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Memorylink 201110/5/201143






2028 - Mouse teleported from Moscow to Chicago


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2045 - Difficulty in transporting water and air to Lunar mining

colony leads to adoption of teleportation to solve the supplyproblem


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Memorylink 201110/5/201145







2045 - Difficulty in transporting water and air to Lunar mining

colony leads to adoption of teleportation to solve the supplyproblem

2056 - Internet bandwidth growth allows teleportation of human


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