MEN OF VIOLENCE?THE DRIVERS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE ENGLISH

DEFENCE LEAGUE (EDL)

TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE ASSN MEETING, LONDON, 2013

Matthew Goodwin (co-authors David Cutts and Laurence Janta-Lipinski)

@GoodwinMJ

Four questions.

1. Who sympathises with the EDL, and who joins?

2. What are their core concerns?

3. What are the most important drivers of EDL support?

4. Finally, what was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?

Data and Methods

• Survey based on random sample of 1,666 respondents from @YouGov online panel

• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet access, age, gender,

social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership

• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size

• From these, we will examine 298 agree with EDL values: ‘EDL sympathisers’

• And we will explore 124 who have/would consider: ‘EDL members’

• Survey was undertaken October 21-22 2012 (during period of decline)

• We’ll use these data for two tasks:

1. To examine EDL sympathisers and members, compared to wider population

2. To conduct logistic regression analysis to identify the key predictors of public

support for the EDL

Social Profile – Who are they?Age Breakdown

• Sympathy concentrated most heavily among citizens aged 45 and older

• Membership higher than average among 18-29 year olds

18-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-59 Yrs 60 Yrs +

16

23

3129

27

22

25 26

20

26 2628

EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full Sample

Social Profile – Who are they?Class Breakdown

• EDL support is spread relatively evenly across social classes• Sympathy stronger than average among skilled manual workers (C2)• Membership strongest among routine non-manual, semi-/unskilled

workers

Profe

ssio

nal/m

anag

eria

l

Routin

e no

n-m

anua

l

Skille

d m

anua

l

Semi/u

nski

lled

man

ual

25 28 262220

34

192728 29

21 22

EDL Sympathizers EDL MembersFull Sample

Social Profile – Who are they?Working status

• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are unemployed• Some evidence EDL members in more economically insecure

positions

Work full-time Work part-time Unemployed Retired

50

12

3

26

39

21

7

15

48

13

4

23

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Social Profile – Who are they?Levels of Education

• Both groups of EDL supporters characterised by low education levels• Only limited evidence that members are especially low educated

No

Qualifi

catio

ns

GCSE/Sec

onda

ry le

vel

A-Lev

el

Other

pos

t-16

qual

s

Degre

e/Pos

tgra

duat

e

9

39

1317 18

12

41

20

5

20

8

27

17 17

27

EDL Sympathisers EDL MembersFull Sample

Social Profile – Who are they?Property Status

• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are in social housing• Little evidence to support popular assumptions concerning social

housing

Own/mortgage Local authority rented

Privately rented/other

69

7

18

56

11

21

66

7

21

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Social Profile – Who are they?Newspaper Readership

• Both groups of EDL supporters tend to rely on tabloid newspapers• Worth noting these criticized for irresponsible coverage of

Islam/migration

No paper Broadsheet Tabloid Other/local paper

18

10

65

7

18

9

64

10

25

14

50

12

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Party IdentificationWhere is EDL support coming from politically?

• Large majorities of EDL supporters identify with mainstream parties• Both sympathisers and members more likely to identify with centre-

right• No more likely than average to reject political parties

Labour Conservatives Lib Dems UKIP/BNP Other No party

25

43

9

31

19

3234

10

31

19

33

29

12

1 2

20

EDL Sympathisers EDL MembersFull sample

Trust in Institutions% who say they ‘do not trust much’, or ‘at all’

• EDL supports broadly reflective of wider trend: high levels of distrust• But consistently more distrustful (with exception of journalists)• Members significantly more distrustful of police than average

Parli

amen

t

MP'

s

Polit

ical

par

ties

Loca

l cou

ncill

ors

Europ

ean

Uni

on

Polic

e

Jour

nalis

ts

75 7985

69

85

46

7177

85 8675 78

51

706775 79

63

75

32

77

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Attitudes toward the Political Systemwhich statement comes closest to your view?

• Only small minority of EDL supporters think system is ‘completely broken’

• Sympathisers especially likely to see ‘serious faults within the system’• But generally, these supporters do not appear to be giving up on system

8

65

23

29

58

1796

58

28

2

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Issue Priorities for EDL SupportersWhat are the most important issues facing country (tick

three)?

• Both groups of EDL supporters foremost concerned about immigration• Economy 2nd most imp. issue, but they are less likely than average to cite this

issue• ‘Muslims in Britain’ distant third concern though members express strong

concern

Immigration & asylum

Economy Muslims in Britain

Europe Crime

74 72

27 2621

91

62

40

25 27

48

79

12 1317

EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full sample

Attitudes toward Islam, and Muslims% agreeing with statements

• EDL supporters consistently more hostile than average toward Muslims and Islam

• Interestingly, sympathizers consistently more hostile than members • Perceived threats from Muslims and Islam also strong among general

population

7680 80 80 82

6864

7073

62

49

5752

49 51

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Attitudes toward Immigration, and Minorities% agreeing with statements

• EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to express xenophobic views

• Significantly more likely than average to associate migrants with negative effects

• Further evidence that EDL support not single-issue in nature

46

79

46

67 71 69

46

69

48

70 65 66

30

66

24

44 42 40

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Attitudes toward Violence, and Intergroup Conflict% agreeing with statements

• All EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to expect group conflicts

• But it is members who are most likely to view violence as justifiable and necessary

• Members three times as likely as sympathisers and public to consider violence72

3729

5

65

45 42

15

46

21 155

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Attitudes toward Classical Racism Measures% agreeing with statements

• Only a minority of EDL supporters endorse expressions of biological racism• Yet EDL members significantly more likely than sympathisers & full sample to

do so• Points to a more openly racist inner core, surrounded by xenophobic circle of

sympathisers who mostly reject traditional, biological racism

Non-whites are not as British as whites

There is a difference in intelligence of Black and White

23

20

3331

1311

EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

Drilling Down:What are the most important drivers of EDL

support?

• ‘Logistic regression analysis’ is a technique that allows us to identify

the most important predictors of EDL sympathy, and membership

• We use as much data as possible, through ‘principal components factor

analysis’ (PCF) to aggregate questions that reflect particular ‘clusters’

of attitudes. There are four of these clusters:

o Classical racism (e.g. non-whites not British like whites)

o Xenophobic hostility (e.g. Immigrants are not honest and

hardworking)

o Political dissatisfaction (e.g. distrust of parliament)

o Pessimism and pro-violence (e.g. violence is inevitable, justified and

necessary)

• We test for the impact of these attitudes (and also social

characteristics) on the likelihood that somebody will sympathise with

the EDL, or consider joining the movement

What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL

sympathy

• Xenophobic hostility to minorities is the strongest predictor of EDL sympathy• Sympathy also prominent among citizens who anticipate group conflicts in the

future and who perceive violence as legitimate/necessary action• Voting for radical/extreme right parties also emerges a significant predictor of

whether someone will sympathise with the EDL• It’s not just apathy: political dissatisfaction the least influential of four clusters

What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL

membership

• Regression analysis points to particular significance of poorly educated, tabloid-reading men between 18-29 years old

• Whereas sympathisers heavily xenophobic, EDL membership predicted far more strongly by classic racism, alongside pessimistic and pro-violent outlook. While xenophobia remains significant, it is less central to explaining membership

• EDL has rallied a younger, harder and more racist core, but is surrounded by a wider circle of xenophobic sympathisers. Both groups are extremely pessimistic about the future of an increasingly diverse Britain

Lastly, What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?

How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?

Would never join Would consider joining

Consider myself a member

Don't know

77

91

13

84

61

9

Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)

N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?

Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to your view?

N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

3

21

47

29

3

22

52

23

Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)

Thanks.

@GoodwinMJ

Full academic working paper at:

http://nottingham.academia.edu/MatthewGoodwin

Chatham House report based on data at:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/189767