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Flora Mer Use of climate analogues for impact studies and designing adaptation options
| Date post: | 10-May-2015 |
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Flora Mer
Use of climate analogues for impact studies and designing adaptation options
Climate Analogue Applications to design adaptation options
1. Explaining differences in crop performance2. Target varieties and crops under certain
environments 3. Farmer exchanges (Farms of the Future project)4. Plant genetic resources interdependence
And also:
4. Evaluate outputs of crop models5. Targeting agricultural trials
The principleDifferences in agricultural systems are related to climates –hence we can transfer technologies (i.e. germplasm) that work if climates are similar
1. Explaining differences in crop performance
West et al. 2010, based on Monfreda et al. 2008
Cassava yield
High yields
Temperature similarity
Could we achieve high yields here?
2. Target crops or varietiesKontela, Mali is a potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal
The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
Sorghum yield dataSorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield (t/ha)
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08
Yield data available in the Agtrials database:http://www.agtrials.org
The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
What CCAFS output?
Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
Why is it useful?
3. The Farm of the Future projectTaking the analogue concept to the field
“Where can we find at present locations the future expected climate of
a selected Reference Site to transfer adaptation options to climate change?”
Farm of the future in Tanzania
Farms of the Future in Tanzania (Lushoto)Reference site: Yamba
– Various variable combinations• Temperature and precipitation• Only temperature• Only precipitation• Combination of bioclimatic variables ( Rtotal, …)
– Various time periods: All year, specific growing season, rainy season, dry season,…
– Criteria of maps display: Within the 5/10/15 % more analogous & where 80 /70 % of the climate models used agree
– Need to take into account socio-economic parameters, soil parameters,…
How to run the analogue tool?Farms of the Future in Tanzania (Lushoto)
LushotoCCAFS site
MorogoroMorogoro
MwitikilwaMwitikilwa
NjombeNjombe
NyomboNyombo
MbingaMbinga
Farms of the future in TanzaniaAnalogue map
- Analogue run with – all year – precipitation and temperature- Starting point: Yamba- Map shows the 15% best analogues to which 80% of the GCMs agreed
Boxplot comparing dissimilarity value between the reference site and the different potential analogue sites selected
SPREAD is due to climate models
Graphs comparing future climate of the reference site with current climate of target sites selected
The best analogues site would be the one with the more similar future climate to the future climate of the reference site
Farmer exchange from the reference site to the analogue site selected
LushotoLushoto MbuziiMbuzii YambaYamba
MorogoroMorogoro
MwitikilwaMwitikilwa
NyomboNyombo
NjombeNjombe
MbingaMbinga
KinoleKinole
Analogue study Tour Villages visitedVillages visited Starting
point
Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique-Coffee nursery-StovesMasasi Village:-Water source-Fish pond-BiogasMtama Village: - Bee keeping
-Weather station visit
- Avocado trial
-Banana varieties trial
- Maize fertility mngt
-Market value chain social enterprise visit- Input supply Stockists
-Weather station visit - Bean trial visit- Tree nursery visit
- SACCOS visit
- Market visit
Farms of the future in TanzaniaJourney to Yamba’s plausible futures
Farm of the future in Ghana
“Where can we find at present locations the future expected climate of
a selected Reference Site to transfer adaptation options to climate change?”
Farms of the Future in Ghana (Lawra-Jirapa)Reference site: Doggoh
Zoom
Farms of the Future in Ghana (Lawra-Jirapa)Reference site: Doggoh
Farms of the Future in Ghana
- Reference site: Doggoh, Lawra Jirapa
- Take farmers to villages in Burkina Faso
Participatory systemic analysis of:•Key environmental challenges and vulnerabilities (adaptation to what)•Scope of the system under examination (adaptation of what and over what time frame)•Local values and visions and aspirations for the future (adaptation from whose perspective)•Existing coping strategies and tools, strengths and assets in the community (building on present strengths)
•Social, cultural, economic and political barriers and opportunities for adaptationBack-casting is then conducted to develop step-by-step plans which build on locally available strengths and resources to reach community identified goals and visions
Socially and culturally appropriate exchange locations are chosen from climate analogue locations through a participatory process.
Farmer exchanges facilitate shared examination of challenges, opportunities and strategies for reaching locally defined goals and visions.
Farm of the future in Nepal
Farms of the Future in Nepal Reference site: Beora
Farms of the Future in Nepal Reference site: Beora
Farms of the futureJourney Beora’s plausible futures
Analogue 1st Exchange visit - Nepal Chitwan - BeoraChitwan - Beora
Blog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/
4. Climate analoguesand the plant genetic resources
interdependency
Share benefits of Plant Genetic Resources?
Tougou,Burkina Faso (x= -2.252, y= 13.691) Millet: June to OctoberForward analysis: Where can we find the present climate of Tougou in the future ?
Dissimilarity Index
Analogues & the International Treaty of Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (IT-PGRFA)
• Help breeders to select future plant varieties and to identify which species provide important traits useful to adapt to Climate Change
• Build scenarios with users about opportunities to increase access to foreign PGRFA in the future
• Identify what kinds of PGRFA are useful from other parts of the world to meet climate change adaptation needs
• Find the places where it is urgent to conserve plant genetic resources
Analogues & IT-PGRFA
Conclusions
• We believe the analogue approach as an interesting tool for analysing impacts and identifying and supporting adaptation strategies
• By using analogue in different projects, we are validating our method
• However, we need to continue improving methods based on calibration and validation
• We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for improvement, and working with you in the use of the tool to continue its improvement
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1
one>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue ToolThank you.
Stay ConnectedWebsite: www.ccafs.cgiar.orgBlog: www.ccafs.cgiar.org/blogSign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins at our website.Follow us on twitter @cgiarclimateE-mail: [email protected]
Contact us !– Andy Jarvis (lead scientist)
[email protected]– David Arango (lead developer)
[email protected]– Flora Mer (FOTF-CIAT contact)
[email protected]– Julian Ramirez (co-developer)
