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Mercado de la Tilapia en EE.UU. - INFOPESCA

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Tilapia Market in the U.S. Mercado de la Tilapia en EE.UU. O mercado de tilápia em os EUA
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Tilapia Market in the U.S.

Mercado de la Tilapia en EE.UU.

O mercado de tilápia em os EUA

¿Quiénes Somos?

• Desde 1858 reportando el mercado de materias primas

• Compañía más antigua de EE.UU. Reportando mercado

• Imprenta a lista de precios

¿Qué Hacemos?, y ¿Cómo?

• Sondeo de mercado • Analistas y Reporteros recolectando datos

cualitativos y cuantitativos • Referencia de precio • Información y transparencia • POR TAL BRINDA EFICIENCIA AL MERCADO

Indicadores Económicos, Producción

Economic Indicators, Production

Indicadores Econômicos, Produção

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

DP M

oney Income %

of Real DI per C

apita Tr

illio

n U

SD$ Disposable personal money income

Real disposable personal incomeDP Money Income % of Real DI per capita

Disposable Income & DP Money Income Source: ERS, USDOC

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Disposable Personal Money Income Per-CapitaReal Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita

Disposable Income & DP Money Income Source: ERS, USDOC

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Trill

ions

of

U.S

. Dol

lars

Food at homeFood away from home

Food Expenditures Source: ERS

Recession

Total: 1.3 Trillion

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

At Home Away from Home

At home and away from home, per capita Source: ERS, USDOC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Special Unemployment Rate: Unemployed and Discouraged Workers

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons

Unemployment Source: BLS

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Empl

oym

ent (

1000

's)

Source: BLS.gov

Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries

'13

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

Food Service Manufacturing Retail2013 New Jobs: 227.700 10.000 164.500

New

Job

s 2013 New Jobs (Jan - July)

Source: St. Louis Fed

-8.000

-6.000

-4.000

-2.000

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Empl

oym

ent (

Thou

sand

s)

Total Jobs Added by Age Range Since 2005

16-54 55+

Source: St. Louis Fed

El Mercado de Tilapia

The Market, Tilapia

Mercado, Tilapia

14,0

14,5

15,0

15,5

16,0

16,5

17,0

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius Catfish All Seafood

Consumption per capita Source: NFI, NMFS

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius All Seafood

Consumption per capita Source: NFI, NMFS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mile

s de

Ton

elad

as

Rest of the World

Ecuador

Colombia

Tanzania, United Rep. of

Kenya

Viet Nam

Taiwan Province of China

Nigeria

Mexico

Uganda

Bangladesh

Thailand

Brazil

Philippines

Indonesia

Egypt

China

Producción Mundial de Tilapia Source: FAO

80 123

164 222 229 253

332 292

371

125

125

134

103 109 97

90

87

78

43

50

51 58

58 54

52

54

55

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

lbs.

Fresh Fillets Frozen Whole Frozen Fillets

Tilapia Imports to the U.S. by Commodity Type (Total), All origins Source: USDOC

125 125

134

103 109

97 90 87

78

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

lbs.

Frozen Whole

Tilapia Imports to the U.S. Whole Fish-All origins Source: USDOC

54,06

51,40

45,88 45,50

50,20

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Million lbs.

Imports of Frozen Whole Fish YTD (Jan – Jul) Source: USDOC

China (mainland) 57,2%

China (Taiwan) 39,8%

Ecuador 0,2%

Panama 0,1% Thailand

1,1%

Malaysia 0,0%

Hong Kong 0,2%

Other 1,4%

YTD 2013

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

Mill

ion

lbs

2011 2012 2013 10-'12 avg.

Cyclical Behavior of Imports Source: USDOC

$-

$0,50

$1,00

$1,50

$2,00

$2,50

$3,00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011 2012 2013

Avg. Retail Price, Whole Sale (Jan – Jul) Source: Urner Barry

43

50 51 58 58

54 52 54 55

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

lbs.

Fresh Fillets

Tilapia Imports, Fresh Fillets to the U.S. (Total), All origins Source: USDOC

Ecuador 32,4%

Honduras 31,9%

Costa Rica 21,3%

Colombia 6,2%

China (Taiwan) 2,2% Brazil

2,0% El Salvador

1,9% Other 2,0%

2008

2013

Honduras 26,9%

Costa Rica 25,0%

Ecuador 21,7%

Colombia 13,3%

Mexico 5,4%

Panama 2,8%

Other 4,9%

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mill

ion

lbs

Adjusted '11 Adjusted '12 2013 '10 -''12 avg. 2008

Record year

Cyclical Monthly Imports, Fresh Fillets Source: USDOC

$3,50

$3,60

$3,70

$3,80

$3,90

$4,00

$4,10

$4,20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010 2011 2012 2013 '10-'12 avg

Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Fresh Fillets Source: Urner Barry

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

$3,50

$3,60

$3,70

$3,80

$3,90

$4,00

$4,10

$4,20

ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13

Mill

ones

AVG UB Quotations Volume

Linear behavior, pricing and other factors, Fresh Fillets Source: Urner Barry, CME, USDOC

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13

AVG UB Quotations % chg log

80

123

164

222 229 253

332

292

371

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

lbs.

Frozen Fillets

Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, All origins Source: USDOC

China 88,6%

Indonesia 8,2%

Taiwan 1,1% Thailand

0,9% Malaysia

0,0%

Other 1,1%

Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, By Origin Source: USDOC

114,1

134,1

165,6

146,5

210,0

171,5

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

lbs.

Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, YTD Source: USDOC

$1,80

$1,95

$2,10

$2,25

$2,40

$2,55

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2013 2012 2011 '10-'12 avg

Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets Source: Urner Barry

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

$1,25

$1,50

$1,75

$2,00

$2,25

$2,50

$2,75

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Million lbs.

$ pe

r lb

.

Volume *Import Value per lb. UB Pricing

*Total value reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (imports' value of tilapia frozen fillets) divided by total pounds.

Linear Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets Source: Urner Barry

$0,00

$1,00

$2,00

$3,00

$4,00

$5,00

$6,00

$7,00

$8,00

$9,00

$10,00

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Max Min Avg

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry

$3,00

$4,00

$5,00

$6,00

$7,00

$8,00

$9,00

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Max Min Avg

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

$0,00

$1,00

$2,00

$3,00

$4,00

$5,00

$6,00

$7,00

$8,00

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Avg Features

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

$4,00

$4,50

$5,00

$5,50

$6,00

$6,50

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Avg Features

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Avg Ret $ AVG imp/lb AVG UB fr/fz6 month Rolling Avg. Imp$/lb. 6 Month Rolling Avg UB (fr/fz)

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry

Conclusiones

• Economía de EE.UU. y consumo en recuperación – Desempleo tiene que mejorar para levanter

expectativas – Apoyo de nuevas generaciones comiendo fuera

Conclusiones

• Importante entender las diferentes etapas y precios en los eslabones de distribución – Precio de reemplazo de inventarios (C&F, no FOB) – Precio FOB dentro de EE.UU. (Urner Barry) – Precio Retail (al consumidor) – Tienda de Autoservicio depende del costo de compra al

importador – El importador depende del precio de compra del productor – El productor depende de precios de materia prima para procesar – El precio de la materia prima

• Alimento • Clima • Energía

Conclusiones

• Consumo Per Capita de tilapia el más fuerte crecimiento de todas las especies

• Dividir las materias primas de tilapia – Filetes frescos – Filetes congelados – Pescado Entero

Conclusiones

• Precios de reemplazo de producto muy de la mano de los precios de Urner Barry – Sin embargo, dependiendo de la oferta:

• Precios de compra y oferta varían • Poder de comprador, poder de vendedor

Gracias! Thank you! Obrigado!

Angel D. Rubio Direct: 732-575-1982 [email protected]


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