Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market synopsis Precious Metals
Base metals
High Low Close %Chg OI
High Low Close %Chg OI
MCX
MCX (Rs/kg)
Gold(Jun) (Rs/10 gm) 30,215 29,765 29,805 (1.9) 11,068
Alum.(May) 105.6 103.9 104.0 (2.3) 4,104
Silver(July) (Rs/kg) 41,559 40,511 40,749 (2.4) 10,338
Copper(June) 319.5 312.8 313.2 (2.2) 25,043
Gold Mini (Rs/10 gm) 30,312 29,750 29,805 (1.8) 10,752
Lead(May) 116.3 115.1 115.7 (0.7) 2,201
Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 41,632 40,531 40,752 (2.4) 9,496
Nickel(May) 603.1 578.0 579.1 (4.2) 23,370
COMEX (US$/oz)
Zinc(May) 124.8 122.0 122.1 (2.7) 3,607
Gold(Jun) 1,289.5 1,262.8 1,266.6 (2.1) 591,636
COMEX (US$/Ib)
Silver(July) 17.48 16.96 17.07 (2.5) 204,913
Copper 214.7 209.7 210.4 (2.2) 179,477
Ratios
LME Inventory levels
in US$ in US$ Ratio
Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg
Gold v/s Oil 1,266.6 43.4 29.2
Aluminum 2,612,625 2,617,550 (0.2)
Gold v/s Silver 1,266.6 17.07 74.2
Copper 159,600 159,025 0.4
Lead 173,775 174,025 (0.1)
Energy
Nickel 414,690 415,284 (0.1)
High Low Close %Chg OI
Zinc 394,300 395,175 (0.2)
MCX
Cr. oil(May) (Rs/bbl) 3,046 2,902 2,911 (2.2) 20,588
Currency
Nat.gas(May) (Rs/mmbtu) 142.2 139.1 140.8 0.6 8,532
Close Prev close %Chg
NYMEX
Rs/US$ 66.5825 66.5825 0.0
Cr. oil(Jun) (US$/bbl) 45.9 43.2 43.4 (2.7) 1,755,023
US$/EUR 1.1383 1.1404 (0.2)
Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) 46.5 43.4 43.6 (3.8) 2,151,701
US$/GBP 1.4407 1.4427 (0.1)
Nat.gas(Jun) (US$/mmbtu) 2.13 2.08 2.10 (0.1) 1,082,796
JPY/US$ 108.3200 107.1200 1.1
Pivot Levels MCX levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Gold 30,158 30,030 29,911 29,805 29,699 29,580 29,452
Silver 41,572 41,273 40,995 40,749 40,503 40,225 39,926
Aluminum 105.32 104.83 104.36 103.95 103.54 103.08 102.58
Copper 318.41 316.50 314.72 313.15 311.58 309.80 307.89
Lead 116.63 116.28 115.94 115.65 115.36 115.03 114.67
Nickel 598.8 591.7 585.0 579.1 573.2 566.6 559.4
Zinc 124.34 123.53 122.77 122.10 121.43 120.68 119.86
Crude oil 3,024 2,983 2,945 2,911 2,877 2,839 2,798
Nat. Gas 143.23 142.35 141.53 140.80 140.07 139.25 138.37
International levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Gold 1,287.56 1,279.95 1,272.87 1,266.60 1,260.33 1,253.25 1,245.64
Silver 17.47 17.33 17.19 17.07 16.95 16.81 16.67
COMEX Copper 214.325 212.900 211.575 210.400 209.225 207.900 206.475
Crude oil 45.56 44.79 44.07 43.44 42.81 42.09 41.32
Br. Crude oil 46.02 45.16 44.35 43.63 42.91 42.11 41.24
Nat. Gas 2.134 2.121 2.109 2.098 2.087 2.075 2.062
LME Aluminum 1,592.40 1,581.00 1,570.40 1,561.00 1,551.60 1,541.00 1,529.60
LME Copper 4,766.07 4,737.00 4,709.97 4,686.00 4,662.03 4,635.00 4,605.93
LME Nickel 8,939.41 8,818.00 8,705.11 8,605.00 8,504.89 8,392.00 8,270.59
LME Lead 1,751.70 1,744.00 1,736.85 1,730.50 1,724.16 1,717.00 1,709.31
LME Zinc 1,879.35 1,863.25 1,848.28 1,835.00 1,821.72 1,806.75 1,790.65
A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day.
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.
Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market news and Technical forecast
Gold fell more than 2% in its biggest one-day
drop in nearly 7-weeks, as a strengthening dollar
and a sharper appetite for high rise assets
sparked selling across commodities.
The metal's failure to break above $1,300, after a
weaker than expected U.S. jobs report on Friday,
also lead profit-taking among inventors.
Spot gold was down 1.9% at $1,263.93 per ounce
towards the closing session, erasing the 0.8%
gain made on Friday after weak non-farm
payrolls data. U.S. gold futures for June closed
down 2.1% at $1,266.6.
The sharp drop came after gold snapped 4-days
of losses on Friday, when the payrolls report
showed that the U.S. economy added the fewest
jobs in 7-months in April, leaving some
economists expecting only one interest rate hike
from the Federal Reserve this year.
The holdings of SPDR Gold trust increased to
836.87, as on May 9, while that of ishares Silver
trust declined to 10,454.5 tons, as of May 5.
Japanese’s yen tumbled against the U.S. dollar,
as Japan signaled it was ready to intervene in the
currency market, while a drop in oil prices
undercut stocks.
Technical outlook:
Gold’s intra-trend remains down till prices are
trading below 30010, while on the downside
prices may test 29600-29400 levels.
Silver’s intra-day trend remains down till prices
are trading below 41200-41400, while on the
downside prices may test 40500-40000 levels.
Precious metals
Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market news and Technical forecast
Oil prices pared early gains and fell sharply, on
expectations that U.S. crude inventories would
again build to record highs, taking the market's
focus off swooning Canadian oil output due to
raging wildfires.
In early trading, oil rallied more than 2% as
investors considered the loss of half, or more
than 1mn barrels per day (bpd), of Canadian
oilsands supply. Canada exports almost all its
crude from oilsands to the United States.
July WTI oil hit its highest premium in more than
3-months to July Brent oil, due to relatively
superior performance of U.S. crude since the
wildfire. The U.S. market typically trades at a
discount to the European benchmark.
Yesterday, market intelligence firm Genscape's
report of an inventory build of 1.4mn barrels at
the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for WTI
futures, added pressure on oil prices.
Investors were also wary of Saudi Arabia's
appointment of a new Energy Minister, Khalid al-
Falih, who was expected to strengthen the
kingdom's focus on oil market share over price
defense.
Natural gas futures edged lower, after the latest
U.S. weather model called for mild temperatures
over the next 2-weeks, which should reduce
heating demand during that time.
Technical outlook:
Crude oil’s trend looks sideways till prices are
trading above support at 2890, while on the
upside prices may test 3020-3070.
Natural gas remains positive till prices are trading
above 139-136.3, while on the upside prices may
rally towards 144-148 levels.
Energy complex
Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market news and Technical forecast
Copper hit its lowest in nearly a month, as weak
trade data from top consumer China highlighted
poor demand growth prospects and the dollar
rose after a Fed official kept rate hike
expectations intact.
Benchmark copper on LME closed down 2.6% at
$4,686 per ton, having earlier touched $4,685, its
lowest since April 12. Also weighing on copper
are high stocks in warehouses approved by the
LME and those monitored by the Shanghai
Futures Exchange.
China's exports and imports fell more than
expected in April, underlining weak demand at
home and abroad.
In other metals, aluminum closed down 2.3% to
$1,561 per ton, zinc down 2.8% to $1,835, and
lead was down 1.2% at $1,730.5. 3-month nickel
slid 5% $8,605, its lowest since April 12.
Technical outlook:
Copper’s intra-day trend looks down till prices
are trading below 315-316, while on the
downside prices may test 310-307 levels.
Nickel’s trend remains down till prices are
trading below 589-590, while on the downside
prices may test 575-568 levels.
Zinc’s trend remains down till prices are trading
below 123.7, while on the downside prices may
test 121-120 levels.
Lead holds strong support at 114.7, only below
which more selling is expected. Till 114.7 is
holding, prices have good chance of rebounding
towards 117-118 levels.
Aluminum’s trend remains down till prices are
trading below 105, while on the downside prices
may test 102.5-103.
Base metals
Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
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Global Indices
Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close
Markets Close Prev close %Chg
Precious metals
Asia
Gold (Rs/10 gm) 29,805 30,015 210 211
Sensex 25,688.9 25,228.5 1.8
Silver (Rs/kg) 40,749 41,731 581 543
Nifty 7,866.1 7,733.5 1.7
Nikkie 16,216.0 16,106.7 0.7
Base metals
Hang Seng 20,156.8 20,109.9 0.2
Alum. (Rs/kg) 104.0 105.0 1.00 0.95
Shanghai 2,832.1 2,913.2 (2.8)
Copper (Rs/kg) 313.2 318.0 4.80 4.55
Straits Times 2,766.1 2,730.8 1.3
Lead (Rs/kg) 115.7 116.4 0.75 0.70
Nickel (Rs/kg) 579.1 585.4 6.30 6.40
America
Zinc (Rs/kg) 122.1 122.9 0.75 0.65
Dow Jones 17,705.9 17,740.6 (0.2)
Nasdaq 4,750.2 4,736.2 0.3
Energy
Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 2,911 2,967 56 60
Europe
Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) 140.8 150.0 9.2 10.5
CAC 4,322.8 4,301.2 0.5
DAX 9,980.5 9,870.0 1.1
National-International price parity
FTSE 6,114.8 6,125.7 (0.2)
MCX COMEX Close* Prev close*
INR 66.58 66.5825
Arbitrage
Gold 29,805 1,266.60 302.98 291.73
Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg
Silver 40,749 17.07 109.61 155.20
Lead - Zinc (6.45) (9.05) (28.7)
Copper 313.2 210.400 4.31 4.41
COMEX Gold - Silver 74.20 73.91 0.4
Crude oil 2,911 43.4 18.66 3.43
Brent - U.S. crude 0.19 0.71 (73.2)
*MCX premium/ (discount)
COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. June)
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Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Economic calendar
Date
Country /
Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous
8-May CNY Exports (y-o-y) -1.8% 0.0% 12.00%
CNY Trade Balance $45.56b $40b $29.86b
CNY Imports (y-o-y) -10.9% -4.00% -8.00%
CNY Imports (y-o-y) CNY -5.7% 0.30% -2.00%
CNY Trade Balance CNY 298b 254.95b 194.60b
9-May JPY Consumer Confidence Index 10:30 40.8 40.70 41.70
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:30 1.7% -0.10% 0.70%
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence 14:00 6.2 6.00 5.70
USD Labor Market Conditions Index Change 19:30 -0.9 -1.00 -2.10
EUR OECD Economic Outlook
10-May CNY Aggregate Financing CNY 2340.0b
CNY New Yuan Loans CNY 1370.0b
CNY Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 7:00 2.3% 2.30% 2.30%
CNY Producer Price Index (y-o-y) 7:00 -3.4% -3.70% -4.30%
EUR German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:30 1.10% 1.30%
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) 11:30 20.60b 20.3b
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 14:00 -£11450 -£11964
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) 14:00 -£3600 -£3357
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) 14:00 -£4200 -£4840
USD Wholesale Inventories 19:30 0.10% -0.50%
11-May JPY Coincident Index 10:30 111.20 110.70
JPY Leading Index 10:30 96.40 96.80
GBP Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) 14:00 -1.90% -1.80%
GBP Industrial Production (y-o-y) 14:00 -0.40% -0.50%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:30
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 19:30 0.30%
USD Monthly Budget Statement 23:30 $110b $156.7b
12-May JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) 5:20 ¥906b ¥425.2b
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current 44.90 45.40
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook 46.20 46.70
JPY Bankruptcies (y-o-y) 10:00 -13.15%
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (y-o-y) 14:30 0.00% 0.80%
GBP Bank of England Inflation Report 16:30
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 16:30 0.50% 0.50%
GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 16:30 375b 375b
USD Initial Jobless Claims 18:00 270k 274k
USD Continuing Claims 18:00 2120k 2121k
14-May JPY BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo 9:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 11:30 -0.10% -0.10%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 11:30 0.60% 0.30%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:30 1.50% 1.30%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:30 1.20% 2.10%
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (y-o-y) 14:30 1.60% 1.60%
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 14:30 0.60% 0.60%
USD Advance Retail Sales 18:00 0.80% -0.30%
USD Retail Sales Less Autos 18:00 0.50% 0.10%
USD U. of Michigan Confidence 19:30 89.50 89.00
USD U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 19:30 2.8%
USD Business Inventories 19:30 0.20% -0.10%
Metals & Energy May 10, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22:30 415
15-May CNY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 11:00 6.50% 6.80%
CNY Industrial Production YTD (y-o-y) 11:00 6.10% 5.80%
CNY Retail Sales (y-o-y) 11:00 10.60% 10.50%
CNY Retail Sales YTD (y-o-y) 11:00 10.40% 10.30%
CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (y-o-y) 11:00 11.00% 10.70%
Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research
022-61325232/ 022-61325249/ 022-31923810
[email protected] Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Sunil Darekar Advisor [email protected] Bharat Jha Advisor [email protected]
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