Meteo 496 Independent Studies2013-14

ByRichard H. GrummNWS State College

Paul KnightThe Pennsylvania State University

Philosophy(adapted from original)

The evolution of technological advancements is changing the forecast aspect of meteorology. The accessibility of massive meteorological datasets is leading to an explosion of apps and bots. The former facilitates the direct involvement of users in weather decision making.

The future of forecasting and decision making based on forecasts is trending toward automation. Similar to rapid financial transactions and automated medical decision making; in the not to distant future; most forecast decisions will be accomplished by BOTS.

Your forecasting future requires high-tech skills and sound meteorological knowledge applied within a highly-imagination enabling (HIE) environment.

The suggested independent studies projects require a good base skill set, which you are readily willing to expand and improve upon. The goal is to position you to thrive in the unfolding automation of meteorological decision making in a world trending toward STEM.

Overview

• Provide projects to expand your base knowledge– Apply automated techniques to existing datasets– Explore and expand forecast knowledge using existing

datasets– Highly innovated projects for innovated students

• Prepare you for a more automated future– BOTS and APPS are the future– BOTS and then APPS will make decisions

• Make you more marketable and innovative

STEM Fields and STEM in education

• Science, technology, engineering and mathematics

• STEM Fields– Chemistry, Computer and Information Technology Science,

Engineering, Geosciences, Life Sciences, Mathematical Sciences, Physics, and STEM Education and Learning Research

• STEM is– aimed to improving high technology skills– Critical for a rapidly evolving world– Critical for job positioning in the 21st Century

HIE: Highly-Imagination Enabling

• HIE can be for a country or work environment– Going somewhere moving forward– organizations that nurture innovation and innovators.

People can turn ideas into products, services faster and cheaper than ever.

• LIE: low imagination-enabling environment– Going no where maintain the status quo– organizations that do not nurture innovation and

innovators. People do what they have always done and become irrelevant as technology changes

Adapted from Thomas Friedman H.I.E August 2013

Real World Examples

• Apps on phones

• Specifically weather Apps on phones– Decision making in the palm of your hand– Can have decentralizing effect

• RadarScope

RadarScope the Phone App• View radar live• Make warning decisions for

friends and family• Draw threat areas with your

finger and post to any social media site in seconds.

The future is herewe just take a decade or two to know it

• Most mobile APPS require some knowledge• Online sites provide forecasts and decisions• Decision APPS will follow– Decisions beyond a severe storm or snow storm– Decisions to bring warm cloths on vacation or rain

gear, buy rock salt, gas for snow blowers, bread, milk. The list goes on.

• Central forecasting and decision making are becoming too costly and inefficient

Sample Projects

• We have some sample projects– Not as complex as an APP but a start– Most require some skills but a good prototype is a

good start if it is useful and innovative – A new idea is as good as a planned project

• Some skills (we will present skills first)– Are required or can be built upon and learned– Some skill sets on next slide

Useful Technical Skillslisted in order relevance

• Programing skills of value– C/C++/C#, Java, Perl, Python– Mobile/APPS programming base knowledge

• Plotting and rendering skills of value– GrADS, GEMPAK, Pygrib, and NCL

• Database skills of value (SQL)– MySQL, MS-Access, Postgres, Oracle

• Operating skills of value:– Mobile apps/GIS– Linux operating and navigation skills

• Applications software– Word and Excel and try to avoid death by power point!

Skills you may already havebut need to grow

• Ability to use Excel or Word• Ability to manipulate and analyze data in Excel,

MATLAB, or SQL• Ability to ftp/wget data sets• Navigate in LINUX/UNIX• Ability to display data in NCL, GrADS or GEMPAK• Programming skills (C,C+

+,Java,C#,F90,Perl,Python)

Skills you may need to developthis list is just a start

• Better use Excel and Word• Data analysis in Excel, MATLAB, or SQL• Accessing large data sets via the web• Navigate in LINUX/UNIX• Improved displaying and rendering of data in

NCL, GrADS or GEMPAK• Data manipulation in C, C++, Java, C#, F90,

Perl, Python

• NAM or GFS Grid Point precipitation climatology. This allows the forecaster to know when the forecast system is predicting a significant event within the model atmosphere. (B,C,E)

• Seasonal precipitation frequency for a station teleconnected to various indices and amounts of liquid precipitation. Aid in long range forecast and planning on seasonal scales. (A,B,D)

• A measure of atmospheric blocking patterns and its associated cycles (POLAR-EURASIAN INDEX).

Similar to the previous topic this is an aid in long range forecasting and planning. (B,D,E)

• Develop an RTMA climatology (based on 7-10 years of data) and compare with NCDC hourly climatology. Improves knowledge of datasets and could improve short-term forecasting and climate model evaluations. (B,C,E,F)

• Objectively evaluate 45 day forecasts, such as the Accuweather 45-day forecast for period the period of Oct 15-Nov 15 or evaluate the NCEP Climate Forecast System forecasts for the period of October through December 2013 and project its skill into the winter months Jan-Feb 2014. (A,B,D,E)

• Case study of significant event with some emphasis on using technologies related to automated techniques and applications (B,C,E,F)

SKILLS KEY Decoder ring:A = Facile with Excel with ability to import and format data sets (text to columns, etc.)B = Familiarity with ftp and downloading large data sets (if needed)C = Ability to write a simple program in either Perl, Java, Python or C+ D = MATLAB experience or willingness to learn as you goE = MYSQL or MS-Access experience/learn as F = GrADS, GEMPAK, NCL experience

Potential ProjectsSee handout for complete list

Advanced topics

• Touch screen technology to draw and compose high impact weather threats

• Integrated decision forecasts for the common person would require reading raw data files (GRIB) and making logical decisions on the data. Would likely involve climate data component.

….these are all ideas we must start small with something manageable within our evolving skill set

Useful Scientific Skills

• Knowledge of meteorology – Basic foresting– Advanced forecasting integrating statistics and climatology

• Knowledge of Statistics– Basics, probabilities and use of first 3 moments, and

leveraging the probability distribution function

• Knowledge of big datasets and the desire to find and exploit these big datasets– Find exploit and improve use even the CFSV2!

Example

Figure 6. NMQ estimated rainfall from gages and radar for the 6-hour period ending at 0900 UTC 28 August 2013. The inset shows the locally heavy rainfall in southwestern Pennsylvania in the same time window. Return to text.

Rainfall verse historic returns and could use Flash Flood guidance

Boswell, PA Somerset Cty

Observed 1 Year PF Estimate

10 Year PF Estimate

100 Year PF Estimate

1000 Year PF Estimate

Time Window

1 Hour 3-4” 0.95 1.71 2.64 3.82 2200-0100 UTC 22-23 July 20133 Hour 3-4” 1.19 2.12 3.40 5.16 2100-0300 UTC 22-23 July 2013Table. 1. Boswell Estimated 1 and 3 hourly rainfall amounts compared to the NOAA Atlas-14 volume 2, 10, 100, and 1000 year return periods. The observations were estimated from NMQ Q2 data. The 3-hour window 2200 to 0100 UTC and the 6-hour window was 2100 to 0300 UTC. Return to text.

Could write an algorithm to alert when 80% of FFG and historic thresholds

Generate warning at 90% of 10 year and FFG and urge issuance at 100%

Automation would know all data and always check distraction free

Summary

• Course about the future though the future is now– Prepare yourself for today and improve tomorrow– Projects should be

• fun and innovative • And provide the basis for a more promising tomorrow• And of interest to YOU!

• Automation is the future and automaters are required.– Requires fewer people to automate more decisions faster.

• Learn to innovate, explore and improve your tomorrow

Other technologies

• R Statistical Computing