Meteorological Development Lab (MDL)FY14 Accomplishments and Plans for FY15

Dr. Mike Farrar, MDL Director

NCEP Production Suite Review

December 03, 2014

Outline

• MDL Projects: FY14 Accomplishments and FY15 Plans– National Blend of Models– Model Output Statistics (MOS)– Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)– Storm Surge– National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)– Iris/Impacts Catalog/iNWS– Rip Current Monitoring and Prediction– Virtual Laboratory (VLab)

• Additional FY15 Projects• MDL Strategic Plan

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National Blend of ModelsA Sandy Supplemental Gap Mitigation Project

Goal: Develop a nationally consistent set of gridded guidance products for NDFD weather elements based on available model data (NWS and non-NWS), verification, and bias correction techniques while leveraging national computing power.

Phase I: Produce deterministic grids for the Day 3-8 time frame:• Temp, Dewpoint, Max/Min Temperature, Sky Cover, Wind, 12-H PoP• Produced 2x/day: 0000 and 1200 UTC• Global models (deterministic and ensemble)

Later Phases: Extend to a full set of NWS Deterministic and probabilistic products covering days 1-10.

EKDMOS work will be done under this umbrella

WCOSS

National Blend of Models Schedule

FY 14 Accomplishments• National Blend project scope finalized (Dec 2013)• Completed sample-size sensitivity studies to determine optimal balance

between computing resources and training data for post-processing. Results published in Reforecast White Paper, Hamill et al. (April 2014)

• Preliminary Blend Products (T, Td) available for evaluation in MDL’s viewer (Sept 2014)

FY 15 Plans• Complete transition of 12-H PoP from OAR development to MDL

implementation • Add additional elements: Winds, Sky Cover, Max/Min Temperature• Begin work on OCONUS domains, starting with Alaska• Prototype Blended guidance ready for evaluation

WCOSS

National Blend of ModelsVerification

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~blend/blender.prototype.php

OpenLayers Viewer developed to:• Compare candidate analyses• Evaluate parallel URMAs• Evaluate prototype Blend grids

alongside NDFD/WPC/GMOS• Provide verification of prototype

Blend grids

Coming soon:• Additional elements• Improved image labeling• Blend forecast point layer

Monthly grid and point scores for the blend will be added to the MDL monthly NDFD verification soon

Provide comments via Blender page on Vlab

WCOSS

MOS FY14 Accomplishments

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• Update of GFS-MOS cool season wind equations (COMPLETED: 11/5/13).

• Pacific MOS ceiling height and sky cover (COMPLETED: 11/5/13).

• GFS-MOS extended range (MEX) mean sky cover (COMPLETED: 11/5/13).

• Addition of predominant weather and precipitation type to GFS-based gridded MOS product suites for CONUS and Alaska (COMPLETED: 4/8/14).

• Added ECMWF station-based deterministic and ensemble MOS into NCO’s “quasi-production” job stream.

• Performed evaluations of parallel NAM and GFS model data to assess impact on the MOS guidance.

WCOSS

MOS FY15 Plans

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• Refresh of GFS MOS station guidance for the cool season in response to GFS model upgrade (scheduled for January 2015)o Addition of stations to Colorado Basin RFC SHEF messageo Remove all dependencies in operations on GRIB1 model data and convert

all output to be GRIB2.• Refresh of GFS MOS station guidance for the warm season in

response to GFS model upgrade (scheduled for March 2015)• Extend GFS-based gridded MOS forecasts for CONUS and Alaska to

day 10 (may be bundled with warm season MOS implementation).• Implement station-based ECMWF MOS into the NCEP production

suite (planned for May 2015)• Other items as resources allow:

o Refresh of NAM MOS station guidanceo Updates to Alaska Gridded MOSo Add sky cover and QPF to 2.5km Hawaii Gridded MOS

WCOSS

LAMP FY14 Implementations

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• New LAMP convection and upgraded lightning guidance was implemented into NWS operations (April 8, 2014).• The guidance is produced hourly, is on the 2.5km NDFD grid, and is

available on operational NDGD, the NWS ftp server the LAMP website: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/gfslamp.shtml

• The guidance is also put on a 5km grid and sent on the SBN/NOAAPort in support of legacy applications in AWIPS.

• The 2.5km grids of LAMP convection and lightning became available on the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPort (May 8, 2014).

WCOSS

• Version 1.1.0: Upgraded Gridded LAMP guidance (Apr 2015)- Improved Gridded Ceiling Height and Visibility:o New LAMP stations to improve C&V in marine areas and Canadao Improvements to consistency of 0-hr and early projections o Minimizing Cig & Vis temporal inconsistencies

- Improved Temperature and Dewpoint:o Augmenting with additional MOS input points and observational

data to provide improved, spatially detailed forecast grids. o Will improve grids in WR and over marine areas.

- Additional elements: Winds and Sky cover

LAMP FY 15 Plans

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WCOSS

• Version 2.0.0 (Sep 2015)- Improved Gridded Ceiling Height and Visibility:

o Further improvement using HRRR model- Improved Convection and Lightning:

o Using MRMS radar data and Total Lightning datao Higher temporal resolution: 1 hour periods for the very short-

range period (0-6hrs or 0-8hrs)o Longer temporal extent: 2 hour periods for the 1-36h period

• Adding Convective Storm Tops: FY16

LAMP FY15/16 Plans

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WCOSS

Storm Surge FY14 Implementations

• Probabilistic storm surge (P-Surge) 2.0 (July 8, 2014)– Latest SLOSH basins– Incorporate tides in each ensemble member– Provide above ground level guidance– Provide 6-hr temporal (e.g. 0-6, 0-12, 0-18, … 0-78 hour and 0-6,

6-12, 12-18, … 72-78 hour) guidance with the AGL products

• Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) 1.5 (Oct. 14, 2014)– Switch forcing from 1 degree GFS winds in GRIB1 to 0.5 degree

GFS winds in GRIB2– Output to the 2.5 km NDFD CONUS and 3 km NDFD Alaska grids– Correct a mask used in the Bering Sea

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WCOSS

Storm Surge FY15 Plans

• P-Surge 2.5 (February, 2015)– Increase temporal resolution of the “incremental exceedance above

datum” products from 6-hourly to 1-hourly– Output key products to 2.5-km grid to assist NHC with storm surge

watches and warnings

• ETSS 2.0 (March 31, 2015)– Nest coarse extra-tropical basins with fine scale tropical basins for the

East Coast and Gulf of Mexico– Implement inundation code for storm surge– Operationalize post processing methods for computing total water level

at stations and provide the result to AWIPS/AHPS via SHEF messages

• ETSS 2.1 (July 28, 2015)– Create basin(s) with overland information which cover both the Bering

Sea and Arctic– Implement inundation code for storm surge and gridded tide

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WCOSS

Storm SurgeFuture efforts

Sandy Supplemental funding will enable NWS to also:• Accelerate plans to improve tropical storm surge

modeling by enhancing P-Surge to– Incorporate greater than 100-hr tracks– Allow it to handle sub-hurricane strength storms– Allow it handle two simultaneous storms– Develop products for Caribbean Basins

• Improve extra-tropical storm surge modeling by creating– Probabilistic Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (PETSS) by forcing the

upgraded ETSS model with all 21 GFS ensemble members (scalable to include other ensemble model's members)

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WCOSS

NDFDFY 14 Implementations

• Upgraded NDFD input to Great Lakes Wave Model (GLWM) to 2.5km (Nov 2013) and streamlined delivery of mosaics to EMC. (Oct 2014)

• Increased temporal resolution from 6-h to 3-h for day 1-3 forecasts in the NDFD oceanic domain. (Dec 2013)

• Implemented GMOS default for NDFD Weather grids when WFOs fail to provide day 7 forecasts. (Apr 2014)

• Transitioned full-resolution CONUS grids (1-h resolution at 2.5km) from experimental to operational status. (Aug 2014)

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NIDS/IDP

NDFD FY 15 Plans

• Move experimental NDFD map viewer into NIDS production environment (Jan 2015)

• Make Haines Index (for Fire Wx) mosaic of EMC and WFO grids available via NDFD (implementation pending receipt of EMC grids).

• Make 2.5km NDFD available via SOAP/XML (TBD, depending on ability of current NIDS server to process).

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NIDS/IDP

Impacts Catalog

Goal: Develop a centralized database of weather-, water-, and climate-dependent societal impact information to allow the NWS to support data-driven decision making in the provision of DSS and the issuance of hazards products.

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IDP

Impacts Catalog

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IDP

FY 14 Accomplishments• Completed Requirements Definition• Completed OT&E of Impacts Catalog Prototype Version

FY 15 Plans• Stand-by migration of Iris/iNWS/Impacts Catalog to IDP in FY15• OT&E of Impacts Catalog Beta Version

Rip Current Monitoringand Prediction

Goal: Develop objective diagnostic and forecast guidance for all coastal and Great Lakes beaches impacted by rip currents.

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IDP

WCOSS

Rip Current Monitoringand Prediction

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IDP

WCOSS

FY 14 Accomplishments• Implemented webform to support the collection and storing of

lifeguard observations of rip currents and surf zone conditions in support of new NWS-United States Lifeguard Association MOU.

FY 15 Plans• Plan MDL-NOS-EMC feasibility/validation study of NOS (Dusek)

rip current forecasting scheme • Migrate MDL lifeguard rip current observation system to Liferay-

based framework to support rehosting on IDP

Goal: To manage innovation, streamline O2R, and accelerate R2O in NOAA.

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NOAA VLab

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NOAA VLab IDP

FY 14 Accomplishments• Implemented AWIPS Distributed CM within VLab• Implemented Google Analytics for VLab• Established VLab User Support Desk• More than doubled number of VLab Users, Projects, and Communities

FY 15 Plans• Complete migration to IDP on December 5• Upgrade VLab Collaboration Services to LIFERAY 6.2 EE• Implement Project Repository – Ideas Marketplace• Establish linkage to NOAA R&D Project Database• Support development of Central Region SOO Communities• Implement Google Open ID Single Sign-On• Begin planning/design for Central Development and Testing Environment

Additional FY15 Efforts

• AutoNowCaster (ANC): Implement as part of MRMS in support of NCEP/AWC operations in FY15

• SmartInits for GFE: Nationalization and Configuration Management

• Aviation Forecast Verification Tool (AFVT): Evaluation of AFVT prototype at AWT 2015 Summer Experiment

• MDLNet Migration: see next slide

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MDLNet (NOAA8872)

• MDL’s development environment– General Purpose computing system, located in SSMC2

• Current solution is problematic– Kluge of hardware; some could be better hosted elsewhere– Funding not aligned with new PPA structure– Poor use of SSMC2

• Identifying functional requirements that drive MDLNet– WCOSS access, web pages, AWIPS, ANC, and more

• Rehosting within other systems, as appropriate• Find optimal way to host remainder

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MDL Strategic Plan

• Timing is right to do a Strategic Plan now– WRN Roadmap 2.0 new NWS priorities– New in 2014: Budget/HQs Reorganization + new MDL Director– Synchronize with NCEP’s Strategic Planning schedule

• Main areas of focus in MDL Strategic Plan:– People– Infusion of new/improved Science and Technology– Infrastructure (Hardware, Software, Systems, Facilities)

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MDL Strategic Plan NCEP-Related Topics

• Availability of retrospective runs for post-processing to be included in EMC’s model development schedule

• Need for reliable WCOSS development environment • Facilities: Potential move of MDL and OHD to College Park• Storm Surge: How to best support organizationally (MDL-

EMC-NHC)?

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MDL Strategic PlanSchedule

• 11/14/2014: Provide draft plan v1 to MDL employees for review and comments (COMPLETED)

• 11/19/2014: Meeting with all MDL employees to discuss overall strategy, draft plan v1 (COMPLETED)

• 12/8/2014: Provide draft plan v2 for review/comment– Internal (MDL) + External (NWS SSDs, NCEP, PPA Leads, OAR)

• 12/31/2014: Draft plan v3 ready for further vetting• 1/6/2015: Present highlights at AMS (Glahn Symposium)• Jan-Feb 2015: Finalize strategic plan and work on implementation

plans

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