Mexico Design Frame version 5

Designing Deeper Appreciation of an Emergent Narco-Problem with Mexico and the United States:

“Aplicamos diseno por los amigos”

Research conducted by Ben Zweibelson for US Army School of Advanced Military

Studies unclassified applications (design approach to Narco-Crisis 2012)

Today’s Metaphor

Today’s Metaphor

Environmental Frame

Problem Frame Operational

Approach

Question: As a planner, can you develop an environmental frame, problem frame, and operational approach using FM 5-0 for the current Mexican situation?

FM 5-0 ‘design’

Create Environmental

FrameCreate Problem

FrameOperational Approach

(design frame)Narrative and

graphical description

Relevant actors; interrelations

Refinement of environmental

frameAreas for action to achieve end state

Initial guidance; end state; time

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

tensions

Problem statement

Broad actions to achieve end state

Resources and Risks

Deliverables

1. Problem Statement2. Initial CDR’s Intent3. CDR’s Initial Planning

Guidance4. Mission Narrative5. Other Products

Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*

According to FM 5-0 (3-7), the goals of design are:1. Understanding ill-structured problems2. Anticipating Change3. Creating Opportunities4. Recognizing and Managing Transitions

(3-16): Division Commanders…were issued further instructions to “establish a safe and secure environment” in Ninewa Province, Diyala Province, and Baghdad. This was a task unfamiliar to them- an ill-structured problem.(3-23): Design helps to clarify objectives in the context of the operational environment and within the limits imposed by policy, strategy, orders, or directives.(3-41): Understanding the operational environment begins with analyzing the context of the situation in accordance with guidance and direction from a higher authority.

FM 5-0 ‘design’


FrameCreate Problem









tensions

Problem statement


Resources and Risks

Deliverables



Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*

‘Building Castles in the Sky’


FrameCreate Problem









tensions

Problem statement


Resources and Risks

Deliverables



Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*

The environmental frame is a narrative and graphic

description that captures the history, culture, current state, and future goals of relevant

actors in the operational environment.

The problem frame is a refinement of the

environmental frame that defines, in text and graphics, the

areas for action that will transform existing conditions

towards the desired end state.

The Operational Approach is a broad conceptualization of the general

actions that will produce the conditions that define the desired end

state. It is important that narratives accompany lines of effort to ensure Soldiers understand the operational

approach.Does this help you as a

planner?

How do you get to the Problem Frame? When do you know when

to move to the next step?

What Design is Lacking?


FrameCreate Problem









tensions

Problem statement


Resources and Risks

Deliverables



Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*

1. The ‘What’

2. The ‘Why’The Plot

Core Patterns

Differences

The Unknown

Marco Ambiental(Environmental Frame)

1. ‘operational and mission variables’ (FM 5-0; 1-21) positioned onto your blank canvas help establish the WHAT.

2. Gharajedaghi discusses function, structure, and process (Systems Thinking p112)

3. Undisciplined Discourse wastes time, resources, and may target the wrong problem!

Figure A1: Divergent Mapping of Mexico at Macro Level

United States

South American/Asian Drug Production

Nationalism

Mexico

Mexican Natural Resources

Mexican natural resourcesMexican Social Factors

Catholicism

Limited oil and gas reserves

Poor agriculture capacity

Poor Mexican economy

Spanish Aristocracy

Natives

Mexican Political Corruption

California Gold Rush

Conquistadores

Illegal Weapons Dealing

NAFTA

WHAT

Cycle of Corruption

Bribes

profit

Drug Supply

Slaves


United States


Nationalism

Mexico

90% of cocaine imported by U.S. trafficked through

Mexico2nd largest exporter of oil to

U.S. in the world

25% of Mexican GDP=legal exports to U.S.

Economic recession: Mexican GDP down 6.5% in

2009.

$21 billion yearly; ‘remittances’ from US

Mexican workers


Mexican oil in severe decline; represents 1/3rd Mexican GDP.


Catholicism



Central location geographically for N-S

trade routes.


Spanish Aristocracy

Elitism

Political Position is a Business Investment

Social Classes

Natives

Spanish

Slaves


Mexican War (US 1820)

Loss of TerritoriesCalifornia Gold

Rush

Fallen Myian Empire

Conquistadores


Drug Demand

NAFTA

Skilled job market

WHAT

Ethnic Identities

Language

Cycle of Corruption

Bribes

Mismanagement

Elitism

Bribesviolence

profit

Drug Supply


United States


Nationalism

Mexico


Mexico2nd largest exporter of oil to

U.S. in the world

25% of Mexican GDP=legal exports to U.S.

Economic recession: Mexican GDP down 6.5% in

2009.

$21 billion yearly; ‘remittances’ from US

Mexican workers


Mexican oil in severe decline; represents 1/3rd Mexican GDP.


Catholicism



Central location geographically for N-S

trade routes.


Spanish Aristocracy

Elitism

Political Position is a Business Investment

Social Classes

Natives

Spanish

Slaves


Mexican War (US 1820)

Loss of TerritoriesCalifornia Gold

Rush

Fallen Myian Empire

Conquistadores


Drug Demand

NAFTA

Skilled job market

WHAT

Ethnic Identities

Language

Cycle of Corruption

Bribes

Mismanagement

Elitism

Bribesviolence

profit

Drug Supply


Mexico

Cycle of Corruption

Bribes

Mismanagement

Elitism



Mexico

Bribesviolence

profit

Drug Supply

Lets continue the environmental frame by asking WHAT and

WHY about corruption, politics,

and crime.

Mexican Population

Figure A2: Divergent Mapping: Power in Mexico

State Power Cartel PowerCorruption

Executive Branch

Other nations Narco-syndicate

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

State Level

Local Level

Mexican Army

Police

Media

Drugs are profit oriented

Cartels

Bribes and Violence

President

Senate (upper)128 seatsChamber of

Deputies (lower)500 seats

WHAT

Mexican Population



President Executive BranchCabinet Members

Ambassadors


Consuls General

Ruling Political Party



Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

State Level

Local Level

Municipalities (2,000x)

Governors

Mexican Army

Police

Sinaloa Cartel Gulf CartelAFO/Tijuana Cartel

Zetas

Narco-terror

bribes

assassinations

Militant action

Media

ABLO

VFC/Juarez Cartel


employment

WHAT

Mexican Population




Ambassadors


Consuls General




Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

State Level

Local Level


mayors

Municipal council

Governors

State senate

State chamber of deputiesState judicial

Local judicial

Mexican Army

Police

Sinaloa Cartel

Municipo Libre

Federal District

90% of legislation

10% of legislation

80% revenue from federal

Gulf CartelAFO/Tijuana Cartel

Zetas

Narco-terror

bribes

assassinations

Military desertion

100,000 soldiers deserted 2000-2006

Militant action

Media

ABLO

VFC/Juarez Cartel

Decisive terrain (trafficking routes)


Supply from other nations

employment

WHAT


State Power Corruption


Ambassadors Consuls General




Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

State Level

Local Level


mayors

Municipal council

Governors

State senate


Local judicial

Mexican Army

Police

Municipo Libre

Federal District

90% of legislation

10% of legislation


WHY are Mexican Politics so

perpetually corruptive?

Mexican Population

Figure B: Divergent Mapping of Ruling Political Party Cycle of Power

‘Sexenio Cycle’ (six years)

Cabinet Members

Ambassadors

Other nations

Consuls General

Magistrates

State judicial

Local judicial

New President

Election

Year 1

Year 4

Year 5

‘dedazo’ tradition

Old President

Election period

Simple majority direct vote

Federal District

Eliminated in 2000Presidential list (PRI names)

Ruling Political Party(PRI from 1917-2000)

Power consolidation

90% of legislation

80% of revenue

Bypass State levelNepotism

Working class static

Rich remain rich

Corruption suppresses opposition to PRI

Years 2-3

President

WHAT

Mexican Population


‘Sexenio Cycle’ (six years)

Cabinet Members

Ambassadors

Other nations

Consuls General

Magistrates

State judicial

Local judicial

New President

Election

Year 1

Year 4

Year 5

‘dedazo’ tradition

Old President

Election period

Simple majority direct vote

Federal District

Eliminated in 2000Presidential list (PRI names)


Power consolidation

90% of legislation

80% of revenue

Bypass State levelNepotism


Rich remain rich


Years 2-3

President

WHAT does Mexican society do in reaction

to this cycle of political corruption when the majority remain entropic?

Mexican Population



Working class staticCorruption suppresses opposition to PRI

WHAT does Mexican society do in reaction

to this cycle of political corruption when the majority remain entropic?

Mexican Population

Figure C: Divergent Mapping of Mexican Federal Power Structure

Nepotism Working class static

Rich remain rich



Executive Branch

Alternative to PRI political monopoly

State Level disenfranchised

Municipo Libre

State Level

Governors

State Legislature

State Judicary

State Level disenfranchised

Bypass State level

Supreme Court

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

PresidentSenate (upper)

128 seats

Chamber of Deputies (lower)

500 seats

Legislative Branch 31x states; 1x federal district

Drug Cartels

Military deserters

Profit centric

Bribery

Narco-terror

Decisive terrain: trafficking routes and crossing sites

Illegal employment options

WHAT



If the PRI perpetually GAINED power, WHY

did the PAN and other parties rise in

power to replace them by 2000?

Nepotism Working class static

Rich remain rich


Figure D: Divergent Mapping of Mexican Political Evolution 1917-2010

Prosperity

Entropy

TimePast

19001930

20102000

19901970

19501920

Old Regime Elites

Old Regime Poor

Positive Feedback Loop

(power)

Negative Feedback Loop:

steady state poverty

This is a linear convergent map using time and a simple prosperity to entropy axis. This particular convergent map focuses on the Mexican federal government.

WHAT



Nepotism

Working class staticRich remain rich



Prosperity

Entropy

40 million poor

19001930

1920

Revolution1910-1920

Constitution: 1917

Old Regime Elites

Old Regime Poor

PRI: new elites

PAN President

(Fox)

2nd PAN President (Calderon)

1st president

PRI wins presidency

continuously

1929: PAN founded

1997: PRI loses absolute majority

in legislature

1939: NAP political Party

20th century poor current century poor

1989: PRD Party

PVEM goes entropic until

1993

1950

1940: PAN congressional

seats

1989: 1st non-PRI governor (Baja)

1986: PVEM political Party

19701990

20102000

Time

1990: Labor Party

Past

10 million starving poorWHAT


Prosperity

Entropy

Past

19001930

1920

Revolution1910-1920

Constitution: 1917

Old Regime Elites

Old Regime Poor

PRI: new elites

1st PAN President 2000 (Fox)

2nd PAN President

2006 (Calderon)

1st president

PRI wins presidency

continuously

1929: PAN founded

1997: PRI loses absolute majority

in legislature

1939: NAP political Party

20th century poor current century poor

1989: PRD Party

PVEM goes entropic until

1993

1950

1940: PAN congressional

seats

1989: 1st non-PRI governor (Baja)

1986: PVEM political Party

19701990

20102000

Time

1990: Labor Party


(power)


(power)

Positive Feedback Loop? (power)





PRI still has 17x states

PAN has 8x states



40 million poor

10 million starving poorWHAT

PRI: new elites


(power)

WHY is the Mexican Political Corruption positive feedback loop perpetual regardless of what political party controls

it?

Figure E: Divergent Mapping of PRI power reduction 1929-2010

Nepotism


Rich remain rich



PRI magistrates enforce PRI policies

PRI dominated congress backs

executive

State governors back PRI president

Federal funds controlled by

Executive

This is a cyclic map featuring a positive feedback loop with Mexican federal power over the past century.

WHAT

Figure E: Divergent Mapping of PRI power reduction 1929-2010

Nepotism


Rich remain rich


Municipo Libre

90% of legislation


Massive Executive

Power


1970: reform to electoral system

1990: proportionate representation law for minority parties

1940: minority seats established in congress

2000: ‘dedazo’ eliminated

1990: proportionate representation law for minority parties

1989: first non-PRI governor (Baja)

1989: first non-PRI governor (Baja)

1997: PRI loses absolute majority in

congress


congress


congress

PRI magistrates enforce PRI policies

PRI dominated congress backs

executive

State governors back PRI president


Executive

WHAT

This environmental framing revolves around many WHAT and

WHY questions to ‘frame’ the energy that operates within the

structures.

Ruling Political Party Cartels

Majority Mexicans


Majority MexicansPerhaps a metaphor exists that can help describe and explain how the

Mexican system functions with these actors?


Majority Mexicans

Let’s call NASA!

Figure E1: Convergent Mapping of Mexican Power with Divergent Gravity Pipe

WHAT/WHY

Prosperity

Entropy

Resistance increases as actor pushes higher

Resistance lower towards bottom

Political Elites

Cartels Majority Mexicans


WHAT/WHY

Prosperity

Entropy

Resistance increases as actor pushes higher

Resistance lower towards bottom

Political Elites


Police Judiciary Protects/Punishes

ConstitutionCatholicism (values)

Limited Resources


WHAT/WHY

Political Elites

Prosperity

Entropy


Decline of PRI (1990s)

Fall of Old Regime (1917)

Rival Political Parties

PAN

Majority suppressed



Military

Desertion

Arms Deals

Bribes

Nepotism


Rich remain rich

Corruption

‘me over us’

Political Corruption Carrying CapacityViolent Crime Carrying Capacity

Police and Army lose monopoly on violence

Political corruption cycle continues with new occupant

Limited Resources

Limited Economy

Limited Choices

Mexican Economy predisposed to Illegal Prosperity

Rival Cartels


WHAT/WHY

Political Elites

Prosperity

Entropy





PAN

Majority suppressed



Military

Desertion

Arms Deals

Bribes

Nepotism


Rich remain rich

Corruption

‘me over us’


Police and Army lose monopoly on violence

Political corruption cycle continues with new occupant

Limited Resources

Limited Economy

Limited Choices

Mexican Economy predisposed to Illegal Prosperity

Rival Cartels


(power)



Municipo Libre

90% of legislation


Massive Executive Power


Executive

$21 billion yearly; ‘remittances’ from US Mexican workers

WHAT/WHY

Political Elites

Prosperity

Entropy

CartelsMajority Mexicans




PAN

Majority suppressed



Military

Desertion

Arms Deals

Bribes

Violence/crime damages society


Limited Resources

Limited Economy

Limited Choices

Rival Cartels

Scarface Analogy to Mexican Poor

Scarface

Unable to legally prosper

Enters organized crime

Rises through ranks

Expands Drug Empire

Dies due to Cartel competition

Logically replaced by competitor

Corruption and bribes weaken state system

Middle of Movie

End of Movie

Beginning of Movie

http://affiliates.allposters.com/link/redirect.asp?item=1677584&AID=1578735739&PSTID=1&LTID=2&lang=1

Political Elites

Prosperity

Entropy

Cartels



PAN


Rival Cartels

WHY do Cartels and Politicians follow similar

paths in Mexico?Decline of PRI (1990s)

Figure F: Divergent Mapping of ‘WHY’ and Mexican Political Corruption/Illegal Economy

Police (enforce)

Mexican Poor

Extreme Poor

40 million

10 million

Judiciary Protects/Punishes

Middle Class

Average Mexican: dislikes actions of those above the law, but if they ever rise up over the law, they will do the same behaviors.

Historical Selfishness: Catholic and Aristocratic disparities in power and rules (Spanish Rule); everyone is out to get their share before it ‘runs out’.

WHY

Army (defends)

Corrupt Politicians

‘me over us’

corruption

bribes

nepotism

Drug Cartels

bribes

‘me over us’

Structure

Laws

Rules

Laws

Structure

Constitution

Catholicism

Rules

violencePLANET MEXICO

Figure F: Divergent Mapping of Easter Island Population Model (branching from Heifetz’s chapter 2)

Territory on Island

Majority

Lower class

Lowest class

Justice and politics on Island

Skilled class

Current Islander: “we do this because our tradition says we do it.” Their inability to record accurate information inhibits adaptation.

Historical Entropy of skills: Deep sea fishing lost, and inability of current generation to identify decreasing resources resulted in population collapse.

Tribal factions

Tribe A

Cooperate with tribes

Larger idols

Consume more resources

Rival Tribes

Larger idols

‘tradition says continue this way’

Structure

Laws

Rules

Laws

Structure

Resources

Ideology

Rules

Cooperate with tribes

Easter Island

‘tradition says continue this way’

Consume more resources


FrameCreate Problem









tensions

Problem statement


Resources and Risks

Deliverables



Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*

‘what’ and ‘why’ established in system. 1. Energy in the system related to problems. Where do

the tensions exist?2. ‘Problemitization’ on WHY the system is CHANGING.3. Gharajedaghi’s self-reference (p122) of system that

facilitates orderly change towards organized complexity

Marco Problema (Problem Frame)

Let us return to an earlier divergent map

(environmental frame) we conducted to tie this

together.

Power

Majority Population

CartelsPolitical Parties

Mexican Population




Ambassadors


Consuls General




Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

State Level

Local Level


mayors

Municipal council

Governors

State senate


Local judicial

Mexican Army

Police

Sinaloa Cartel

Municipo Libre

Federal District

90% of legislation

10% of legislation



Zetas

Narco-terror

bribes

assassinations

Military desertion


Militant action

Media

ABLO

VFC/Juarez Cartel




employment

WHAT

Let us return to an earlier divergent map

(environmental frame) we conducted to tie this

together.

Mexican Population

Figure F2: Difference and Tension in Mexico System



Ambassadors


Consuls General




Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

State Level

Local Level


mayors

Municipal council

Governors

State senate


Local judicial

Mexican Army

Police

Sinaloa Cartel

Municipo Libre

Federal District

90% of legislation

10% of legislation



Zetas

Narco-terror

bribes

assassinations

Military desertion


Militant action

Media

ABLO

VFC/Juarez Cartel




employment

WHY

Power

Majority Population


‘me over us’

Mexican Population




Ambassadors


Consuls General




Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

State Level

Local Level


mayors

Municipal council

Governors

State senate


Local judicial

Mexican Army

Police

Sinaloa Cartel

Municipo Libre

Federal District

90% of legislation

10% of legislation



Zetas

Narco-terror

bribes

assassinations

Military desertion


Militant action

Media

ABLO

VFC/Juarez Cartel




employment

WHY

Power

Majority Population

Suppress

Suppress

toleratetolerate

Justice

Violence

Police

CrimeBarriers to power Barriers to power

LawValues


‘me over us’

Mexican Population




Ambassadors


Consuls General




Supreme Court

Legislative Branch

Judicial Branch

Magistrates

State Level

Local Level


mayors

Municipal council

Governors

State senate


Local judicial

Mexican Army

Police

Sinaloa Cartel

Municipo Libre

Federal District

90% of legislation

10% of legislation



Zetas

Narco-terror

bribes

assassinations

Military desertion


Militant action

Media

ABLO

VFC/Juarez Cartel




employment

WHY

Power

Majority Population

Suppress

Suppress

toleratetolerate

Justice

Violence

Police

CrimeBarriers to power Barriers to power

LawValues


‘me over us’

Economic Alternatives to Crime

Judiciary Policy Improvements

Secure Majority Population

Strengthen HNSF

Alter Cultural tolerance of ‘me over us’


Reduce Government Waste

FM 5-0 ‘design’


FrameCreate Problem









tensions

Problem statement


Resources and Risks

Deliverables



Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*

‘what’ and ‘why’ established in system.

Tension in system identified;Differences highlighted.

Solve the core problem with broad action that takes a long-term approach;Reprioritization in system to cancel core differences.

Figure G: Graphical Depiction of an Operational Approach to Mexico

Prosperity

Entropy

Slow SpeedIndirect‘Go’LICGradualEastern

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

RapidViolentChessHICDecisiveWestern

Time(beginning,

middle, end)

Nation prospering; discourse exists within legal and political confines; police control illegal action

Nation prospering; violent dissidents held to specific regions in nation; military IOP used to fight dissidents

Nation failing; wide-spread violence; dissidents able to dismantle government functions; edge of chaos

Nation failing; extreme police state suppresses resistance; large underground movement unable to gain traction

WHY/Approach

Figure G: Graphical Depiction of an Operational Approach to Mexico

Prosperity

Entropy

Time(beginning,

middle, end)

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Nation prospering; discourse exists within legal and political confines; police control illegal action

Nation prospering; violent dissidents held to specific regions in nation; military IOP used to fight dissidents

Nation failing; wide-spread violence; dissidents able to dismantle government functions; edge of chaos

Nation failing; extreme police state suppresses resistance; large underground movement unable to gain traction

United States

France

Japan

Russia

Iran Sudan

Somalia

Columbia

Venezuela

Israel

IndonesiaIndia

Pakistan

Edge of chaosEdge of chaos

Iraq Mexico

North Korea

Afghanistan

Yemen

WHY/Approach



Figure H: Graphical Depiction of an Operational Approach to Mexico

Prosperity

Entropy

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Actor prospering; discourse exists within legal and political confines; police control illegal action

Actor prospering; violent dissidents held to specific regions in nation; military IOP used to fight dissidents

Actor failing; wide-spread violence; dissidents able to dismantle government functions; edge of chaos

Actor failing; extreme police state suppresses resistance; large underground movement unable to gain traction

Time(beginning,

middle, end)Mexican Elites

Mexican Poor

WHY/Approach

PRI party

PAN partyDrug Cartels






Prosperity

Entropy

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Actor prospering; discourse exists within legal and political confines; police control illegal action

Actor prospering; violent dissidents held to specific regions in nation; military IOP used to fight dissidents

Actor failing; wide-spread violence; dissidents able to dismantle government functions; edge of chaos

Actor failing; extreme police state suppresses resistance; large underground movement unable to gain traction

Time(beginning,


Mexican Poor

WHY/Approach

PRI party


How can we impact the energy of this system to influence this behavior towards our desired

end state?


Prosperity

Entropy

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Time(beginning,


Mexican Poor

WHY/Approach

PRI party


Weaken HNSF

Increase Value of Drugs

Entropy onto Majority

Decrease value of Drugs

Strengthen HNSF

Improve Justice System






Prosperity

Entropy

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Time(beginning,


Mexican Poor

WHY/Approach

PRI party


DRUG CARTELS

Weaken HNSF




Strengthen HNSF




CORRUPT POLITICAL P

ROCESS

Continue Bribe Policy

Prevent Judiciary Policy Implementation



Strengthen HNSF


Static Economy







Prosperity

Entropy

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Time(beginning,


Mexican Poor

WHY/Approach

PRI party


DRUG CARTELS

Weaken HNSF




Strengthen HNSF



CORRUPT POLITICAL P

ROCESS





Strengthen HNSF


Static Economy


MEXICAN POPULATION




Strengthen HNSF


Weaken HNSF


Static Economy





Prosperity

Entropy

Q1 Q2

Q4 Q3

Time(beginning,


Mexican Poor

WHY/Approach

PRI party


DRUG CARTELS

Weaken HNSF




Strengthen HNSF



CORRUPT POLITICAL P

ROCESS





Strengthen HNSF


Static Economy


MEXICAN POPULATION




Strengthen HNSF


Weaken HNSF


Static Economy


We need to demonstrate this with time (narrative- beginning,

middle, end)

Figure I: Graphical Depiction of an Operational Approach to Mexico

Entropy

Prosperity

Rapid

Past

Friendly Strategic COG

Friendly Operational COG

Enemy Strategic COG

Enemy Operational COG

End state: x

Emergent

Past

Future

LOO 1:

LOO 2:

LOO 3:

LOO 2:

LOO 3:

Friendly ForcesDesired End State:-Mexican State stabile and functioning.- Illegal Economy neutralized.-Mexican HNSF regain monopoly of violence

Rival ForcesDesired End State:-Maintain power over rivals-Profit exceeds Costs- Mexican Majority Complies with Our Will

PLOT: Mexican culture, history, and society condones actions against the many to empower the few.

LOO 1:

WHY/Approach


Entropy

Prosperity

RapidSlow

Past



Enemy Strategic COG


End state: x

Emergent

Past

Future

PRI dominated Mexican political power

PRI losing power 1989-2010

Mexican Poor

Drug Cartels

PAN Party

Drug Cartels

PAN Party

PRI Elites

PRI Elites

Mexican Poor

American Domestic Resolve

Coalition Fielded Forces

Inadequate Rules, Laws, and Structure

‘Me over Us’ Mexican Strategic

Culture

LOO 1: Prosperity through Collective Participation in State

LOO 2: Security and Law Enforcement

LOO 3: Political Reform

LOO 1: Maximize Profit for ‘me’

LOO 2: Continue Reinforcing Organization Sustainment

LOO 3: Maintain Popular Support through Bribes/Violence




Cartels had tacit agreement with State

The poor condones corruption and aspires for ‘their turn.’

The poor rejects PRI elitism due to entropic degradation

Poor expect PAN to increase prosperity

Cartels increase violence to increase profit

WHY/Approach


Entropy

Prosperity

RapidSlow

Past



Enemy Strategic COG


End state: x

Emergent

Past

Future



Mexican Poor

Drug Cartels

PAN Party

Drug Cartels

PAN Party

PRI Elites

PRI Elites

Mexican Poor





Culture















WHY/Approach

Weaken HNSF




Prevent Judiciary Policy

Implementation

Static

Economy

Economic Alternatives

to Crime


Secu

re Majo

rity

Populati

on

Strength

en HNSF

Alter C

ultural to

lerance of ‘me ove

r us’

Alter C

ultural to

lerance of ‘me ove

r us’


Entropy

Prosperity

RapidSlow

Past



Enemy Strategic COG


End state: x

Emergent

Past

Future



Mexican Poor

Drug Cartels

PAN Party

Drug Cartels

PAN Party

PRI Elites

PRI Elites

Mexican Poor





Culture















WHY/Approach

The desired end state needs to be broad, yet observable after

action on the system.

The narrative should come out of this product:

plot

Friendly Ends

Enemy EndsThe Beginning

The ‘End’LOOs (what/why)

COGs

Enemy COGs

Emergence…

‘Middle’

CCIR

Did this get us from point A to point B on ‘design’ according to FM 5-0 with non-

prescriptive examples?

The End Who knew making sweaters was more profitable than drugs?

These are hide slides with other half-baked ideas…

‘Fuzzy Front-End’

Divergent Mapping

SynergyConvergent

Mapping

Di-Convergence

Initial Frame Requirements

What is the goal?

What are the problems?

Figure F1: Zweibelson’s Thesis on Design


FrameCreate Problem









tensions

Problem statement


Resources and Risks

Deliverables



Decisive Points*

LOOs, LOEs*



Divergent Mapping

Divergent Mapping

Convergent Mapping

Convergent Mapping

Date post:	25-Jan-2017
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Mexico Design Frame version 5

Documents