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The contents of this unclassified report in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation was compiled from various open sources and unclassified embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S. private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
Inside This Report:
1) OSAC Program
2) Mexico– Trends in Mexico– Area Overviews– Areas of Concern– Implications– Best Practices– Outlook
Mexico: Opportunities and ChallengesJuly 12, 2011
2
OSAC Overview
• Formed in 1985 to Promote Security Cooperation Between U.S. Government and Private Sector– Over 7,000 registered users, 17+ analysts and coordinators– Email and telephonic consultations, detailed written analysis,
events, and conferences
• Country Council Program Promotes Information Sharing at the Local Level– Seven active country councils throughout Mexico– Opportunity to network and share best practices with Regional
Security Officers (RSOs) and private sector participants
For Further Information https://www.osac.gov/Pages/AboutUs.aspx
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
21202280
5153
6587
15273
Cartel-related Homicides in Mexico
Year
Num
ber o
f Hom
icid
es
4
Trends
• Mexico is Averaging 253 Cartel-related Homicides Per Week– Homicides in 2011 could reach or exceed the record set in 2010
• Cartels are Less Organized and Disciplined– Takedowns of leadership; fracturing and infighting– Collateral damage increasing
• Escalation in Tactics– VBIEDs, large-scale shootouts, narco-roadblocks
• Violence Continues to Intensify and Spread– Decapitations, mutilations, daytime shootouts– Guadalajara, Central Mexico
• Corruption and Involvement of Authorities in Criminal Activity
• Diversification into Traditional Criminal Activities
8
Monterrey
• Epicenter of Gulf-Zetas Conflict– Over 4,000 cartel members
• 663 Cartel-related Homicides in Nuevo Leon as of May– Exceeds all of 2010
• Unprecedented Levels of Corruption– Ineffectiveness of local authorities
• Kidnapping and Carjacking– 56 percent increase in stolen vehicle
reports
• U.S. Government Response– Partially unaccompanied status, curfew,
armored vehicles
9
Mexico City
• Relatively Immune from Cartel-related Violence– Isolated incidents of violence in
lower income suburbs; associated with small-scale narcotics sales
• Crime Rates in Mexico City Remain Critical– Armed robbery, kidnapping,
carjacking
• Criminals Typically Select Victims Opportunistically Based on Perceived Wealth– Expensive watches, jewelry,
electronics
10
Guadalajara
• Significant Increase in Cartel-related Violence – Nacho Coronel’s death in July 2010
• Conflict Between La Resistencia and CJNG– Possible Zetas incursions
• High-profile Incidents in January and February– Narco-roadblocks– February 12 Butter Club attack
• Increased Security Presence for Pan-American Games
February 2 Narco-roadblock in Guadalajara
February 12 Butter Club Attack
11
Areas of Concern
• Tamaulipas and Michoacán– Travel warning advises U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel
• Monterrey– Significant security concerns in the city– U.S. Consulate is a partially unaccompanied post
• Chihuahua and Sinaloa– Statistically the two most violent states in Mexico– Travel warning advises U.S. Citizens to defer non-essential travel to
Ciudad Juarez and Culiacan; visit Mazatlan only during daylight hours
• Durango, Coahuila, and Zacatecas– Travel warning advises U.S. citizens to defer travel to Durango,
Gomez Palacio, Torreon, Saltillo, Piedras Negras, Ciudad Acuña, Fresnillo and surrounding areas
12
Areas of Concern
• San Luis Potosi– Travel warning advises U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel
on highway 57D
• Nayarit and Jalisco– Travel warning advises to defer non-essential travel to Colotlan
and Yahualica near the Zacatecas border; exercise extreme caution near borders with Michoacán and Zacatecas as well as in or near the cities of Tepic and Xalisco, Nayarit
• Nogales and Surrounding Areas
• Guerrero and Morelos– Travel warning advises to exercise extreme caution in
northwestern Guerrero; do not take road through Ciudad Altamirano to Ixtapa and Zihuatanejo
– Acapulco has experienced a significant increase in violence
14
Implications
• Direct Impact of Violence Still Heavily Concentrated Among Cartel-affiliated Individuals– Indiscriminate tactics, such as large-
scale shootouts, are leading to increased collateral damage
• Restricted Travel in Some Areas Limits Ability to Operate
• Rising Security Costs and Insurance Premiums
• Reduced Expatriate Willingness to take Assignments in Mexico
• Psychological Impact on Employees
15
Best Practices
• Restricted Travel to High Risk Areas– Spending the night on U.S. side in border areas
• Travel During Daylight Hours– Scheduling flights and overland trips
• Maintain a Low Profile– Most criminals select victims opportunistically based on
perceived wealth
• Avoid High-risk, Compromising Situations– Excessive alcohol consumption and staying out late at bars
• Minimize Overland Transportation
• Travel on Toll Roads and Only Use Radio Dispatched Taxis
16
Mexico in Perspective
Mexico Brazil Colombia Belize Guatemala El Salvador Venezuela Honduras0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3225
3744
50
61
75 77
Estimated Homicide Rates in Latin America
Country
Hom
icid
es p
er 1
00,0
00 In
habi
tant
s
17
Homicide Rates
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
3531
29 2826 25 26
2426
29.332.1
Homicide Rates in Mexico
Year
Hom
icid
es p
er 1
00,0
00 In
habi
tant
s
18
Outlook
• Violence will Continue and Likely Rise in the Near-term
• Violence will Continue to Spread– Guadalajara, Central Mexico
• Continued Cartel Expansion into Traditional Criminal Activities– Rising crime in many areas
• Any Improvement will Likely be a Long-term, Gradual Process– Institutional reform– Availability of legitimate opportunities
• Despite Violence, Mexico Remains an Attractive Location for U.S. Investment and Expansion
19
Questions?
Justin Lamb Regional Coordinator for
Western Hemisphere
+1 571 345 2221
Shari Peart Country Council and Outreach
Coordinator for WHA
+1 571 345 7747