1. Week 1: What is Research?
MFF 715: Forensic Research & Analysis
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2. Whats due on 11/20/2011 at 11:55pm
Practice 1 (individual PASS/FAIL)
Quiz 1 (individual)
Graded Discussion 1: Initial postings are due by the end of 11/17/2011. The individual replies are due by the end of 11/20/2011.
Assignment 1 (group)
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3. Learning Objectives
Understand what scientific research is and is not
Appreciate the need for sound reasoning to interpret research results
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4. Why should I care about research?
Research makes us better decision makers
Example: How should we allocate resources for fraud detection?
Example: Why are accounting fraud problems more prevalent in some divisions than others?
Research improves practice
Example: What are the best ways to perform police lineups?
Example: Are certain types of customers more likely to commit fraud than others?
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5. Truth or Myth?
Eyewitnesses are better at identifying criminals when all suspects are presented together in a lineup as opposed to one at a time
People are more likely to cheat alone when they can pocket all the profits, than when they have to cheat with colleagues and split the profits
People cheat more as the payoff gets bigger
People cheat more as the risk of getting caught decreases
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6. We have many intuitions in our lives. The point is, many of those intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions? Dan Ariely
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7. What is Research?
From the following examples, identify those cases that you would consider scientific research:
An investigator gathering information about several potential cases of financial fraud
An investigator asking a customer about her identity fraud experience
Answer: Both or none of them could be research !
The key lies on the methodology used, it should be scientific reasoning !
Scientific methodology is a systematic approachtoward understanding of the world
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8. Whats Scientific Research
A process of determining, acquiring, analyzing, synthesizing, and disseminating relevant empirical data, information, and insights to decision makers in ways that mobilize the organization to take appropriate business actions that,in turn, maximize business performance
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10. Scientific Reasoning: DEDUCTIVE
Reasoning (or inference) in which there is a relation between the premises and the conclusion so that the following property exists: if the premises are true, the conclusion must also be true.
Example 1:
All people born in the United States are U.S. citizens
John was born in the U.S.
Therefore, John is a U.S. citizen
Can you provide your own examples of deductive reasoning?
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11. NON-DEDUCTIVE INFERENCES
Deductive inference is fundamental toward the development of generalizations (theories) about the world.
However, it is constantly misused (e.g. in the media).
Example:
The first five eggs in the box are rotten
All eggs have the same expiration date
Therefore, all eggs are rotten
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12. Scientific Reasoning: INDUCTIVE
We move from premisesabout objects we have examined to conclusions (or generalizations) about objects we have not examined
Example: Everyday the sun rises; therefore, the sun will also rise tomorrow.
We use this reasoning everyday
Can you provide your own inductive example?
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13. Inductive Inference in Science
Science also uses inductive reasoning (e.g. how do we know that copper conducts electricity?)
Still, inductive reasoning is a risky business (e.g. all swans are white)
David Hume argued that inductive reasoning can not be rationally justified
but that we should use a practical skepticism based on common sense
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14. Problem with Inductive Inference: Poppers Approach
To solve the problem with inductive reasoning, Karl Popper argued that we can never know if a theory is true but only if it is false.
Karl Popper(1934) proposed that all theories should be falsifiable (that is, they could be proved wrong ).
In general, it is accepted that a theory should be falsifiable, explanatory, and have predictive power!
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15. Research Approach: Deductive
Deductive Approach
Example
Deduce a hypothesis from existing theory
Express the hypothesis in operational terms
Test the hypothesis
Examine the outcome (does it prove the theory false?)
If necessary, modify the theory in lieu of the results
Base Theory:Cognitive Dissonance (Festinger 1957)
Deduced Hypothesis: Consumers of snack foods experience cognitive dissonance due to adverse health-related publicity
Survey snack food consumers
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16. Research Approach: Inductive
Inductive Approach
Example
Berg et al (2003) studied use of cell phones by teens
Research question: How do teenagers use their cell phones?
Exploratory study in a small college using ethnographic methodology
They found that phones are used to establish and maintain the status of social networks via text exchanges
Results were used fora new design for 3G cell phones
In this approach theory follows data
Define the context of your study (e.g. a small group of students) and your data collection and analysis method (e.g. qualitative analysis)
Examine the data and develop your theory and hypotheses
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