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Is the strategic case for EMD still intact? October 2013 Thanos Papasavvas Fixed Income and Currency Strategist [email protected]
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Page 1: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Is the strategic case for EMD still intact?

October 2013

Thanos Papasavvas

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

[email protected]

Page 2: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Page 2 | CONFIDENTIAL

14873

Global specialist asset manager

Investec Asset Management

● Founded in 1991 by current leadership

● Independently managed entity within

Investec Group

● Employees have direct equity

participation in the firm

● Origins are African – presence and

perspective is global

● Investment and Operational hubs in

London & Cape Town

● Client group teams in Africa, Americas

and Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe,

Middle East and the UK

● Over 760 employees*

● Approximately US$ 100 billion in assets

under management

Client group

Investments and Client group

As at 30 June 2013

* Permanent employees

Quarterly

AfricaClient group: 76

Investment professionals: 69

UKClient group: 26

Investment professionals: 85

Americas and JapanClient group: 18

Asia PacificAsia client group: 21

Australia client group: 5

EuropeClient group: 12

Middle EastClient group: 2

USD

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MASTER PITCHBOOKS\IAM

INTRO\~Evidence\IAM Intro_evidence.xlsx\Firm AUM

Over 760 employees*

Region Staff

Client group: 26

Investment professionals: 85 Plus HK Dealer

Client group: 12

Client group: 76

Investment professionals: 67

Client group: 2

Asia client group: 21

Australia client group: 5 Plus Janaya

Client group: 18 Plus FIG

Americas and Japan

UK

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Jun 13Jun 13

USD US$100.7bn

Jun 13

Quarterly

Page 3: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Global43%

Emerging Markets

57%

A focus on global and emerging market investing across asset

classes

• Developed Markets

• Emerging Markets

• Multi-Strategy

Fixed Income – US$32bn

• Global

• Regional

• Emerging Markets

• Frontier Markets

Equity – US$40bn

• Global

• Emerging Markets

• Income

Multi-Asset – US$17bn

• Commodities

• Private Equity

• Private Debt

Alternative – US$6bn

AUM by asset class

AUM by underlying asset

Figures reflect assets under management on a net sourced basis. A further US$6.3bn assets under

management are third party funds on advisory platform

Source: Investec Asset Management, as at 30 June 2013

Quarterly USD

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MASTER PITCHBOOKS\IAM

INTRO\~Evidence\IAM Intro_evidence.xlsx\Asset Class_tables

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MASTER PITCHBOOKS\IAM

INTRO\~Evidence\IAM Intro_evidence.xlsx\Asset Class_pies

Strategy by asset class $'m

Equity US$40.1bn

Fixed Income US$31.6bn

Multi-Asset US$17.2bn

Alternative US$5.7bn

Not Specified US$270.5m

Administration US$6.0bn

Footnote US$6.3bn

Equity42%

Fixed Income34%

Multi-Asset18%

Alternative6%

Jun 13

Page 4: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Fixed Income mandate range reflects our skill set

Multi-Strategy Emerging Markets

Allocation & Credit Target Return

Global Bond

Global Strategic Income

Investment Grade

High Income

Rates & Currency Liquidity

Reserve Management

Managed Currency

Global Debt & Currency Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt

Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt

Emerging Markets Blended Debt

Emerging Markets Corporate Debt

Emerging Markets Currency

Southern African Rates Money Market

Absolute Income

Dynamic Bond

Flexible Bond

Hedge

Frontier & African Credit Credit Income

Corporate Bond

Credit Opportunities

Page 5: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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EM Fixed Income Assets under management

● Increased assets significantly across different strategies

● Further $650 million

managed for internal

fixed income and multi-

asset portfolios

\\mercury.iam.corp.investec.com\gdrive\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MA

STER PITCHBOOKS\WORKING FILES\Emerging

Market - DO NOT USE\~Evidence\Emergin

INSTITUTIONAL MASTERS and Portfolio Review USD Update: Quarterly

Assets under

management

30 June 2013 $m

Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt 12,654

369

497

446

211

Global EMD subtotal2 13,994

9,924

Bond 2,830

Cash 5,955

Multi-Strategy 1,140

3,727

Credit Income 498

High Income 404

SA Credit Opportunities 2,826

Regional EMD subtotal 13,651

27,829

Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt

Emerging Markets Corporate Debt

Emerging Markets Currency

SA Rates

SA & African Credit

Total

Emerging Markets Blended Debt1

Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategies

1. Emerging Markets Blended Debt includes a double count of assets held within Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt,

Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt and Emerging Markets Corporate Debt strategies. 2. The total Global EMD subtotal AUM

removes the double count of these assets. Source: Investec Asset Management, as at 30 June 2013

Page 6: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Global outlook

Page 7: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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The US is close to stepping back from QE

Unemployment rate US Unemployment

● Unemployment will take time to reach its target, which Bernanke might still adjust

● With actual tightening still 2 years away

● Recent data has been relatively disappointing with the latest Non-Farm Payrolls number below

expectations

Source: St. Louis Fed

Page 8: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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…but this does not mean automatic rate hikes

Japanese National Consumer Price Index

● US in the 1930’s and two decades of Japan have shown that we can deal with inflation but not

deflation

Source: Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Nat'l CPI year on year % change 2% Target

Bernanke’s worst nightmare: deflation

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

EU Inflation Composite US Inflation Composite

Japan Inflation Composite

US, Japan and EU Inflation Composites

(Normalised)

Page 9: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Eurozone stability

● Merkel expected to form coalition government and enforce the restructuring programme

● ECB will continue to do whatever is necessary to ensure economic stability

● European PMIs continue to improve

US and EU Dataflow EU Dataflow v GDP growth

Source: Investec Asset Managment, Bloomberg

Page 10: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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China soft-landing

● New administration still targets growth rate of 7% - 7.5% by pursuing structural change

● US, UK, Eurozone and Japanese pick-up will be supportive

● Most recent Chinese data has shown improvements, Chinese equities are up 14% from June lows

Chinese activity indicators

Source: Bloomberg, UBS estimates, CEC, August 2013

Chinese equities have recovered

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

Nov-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 May-13 Sep-13

Shanghai Composite Index

Page 11: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Manufacturing PMIs have recovered from August

● Purchasing Managers’ indices in EM rose to 51.6 on average

● Inflation remains well-behaved with falling food prices and moderate domestic demand offsetting

the affects of a slightly higher oil price and currency weakness

Manufacturing PMIs Seasonally Adjusted

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

Average

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

VietnamCzech

Hungary

Poland

Russia

Israel

South Africa

Turkey

Brazil

Mexico

Post-Crisis Average

50

Current (Aug-13)

Previous Reading

Latin

America

CEE

Asia

MEA

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

Sep 10 Jun 11 Mar 12 Dec 12 Sep 13 Jul 14

CPI

CPI F'cst

EM Inflation Forecasts

Source: Investec Asset Management, September 2013

Page 12: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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14873

Sources: Citi Research, Bloomberg, 22 July 2013

Associated responses to US and China GrowthAccumulated response (over 4 quarters) of EM growth to US and

China growth shocks

Mexico: Industrial Sector v US ISM

● US and China have similar effects on EM growth

● However, the US strength is enough to offset the Chinese slowdown

Accumulated response (over 4 quarters) of EM growth to US and China growth

shocks

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1 SD shock to US growth rate 1 SD shock to China's growth rate

LatAm Asia EMEA

%

A Strong US Economy should turn this around

Page 13: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Emerging market fundamentals remain strong

Cumulative current account differences plus FDIAs a percentage of final GDP, both leading up to the Asian financial crisis and more recently

● EM debt, both external and

foreign currency-

denominated, are lower now

● EM not as vulnerable as late

90’s as some suggest

Source: Moody’s, Investec Asset Management calculations, 2013

Page 14: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Local EMD

Dollar EMD

Corp EMD

Developed Govt

EMD offers value vs. developed market bonds

● EM bonds have attractive yields of

5.7 – 6.6 % with low interest rate risk

● Spreads of 3.6 – 4.5% over developed

markets attractive

● Return vs. risk very attractive as interest

rate risk currently much lower in EM

Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future, losses may be made. Data is not audited

Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, 31 August 2013. *As at 19 September 2013

Bond yields EMD vs. Global*

Update

Monthly

Data from

Duncan / Julia

or Grant

Send excel file

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MASTER PITCHBOOKS\GSF\GSF

EM Blended Debt Fund\~Evidence\EM Blended

evidence.xlsx\Bond yields

Local

EMD

Hard Currency

EMD

Corp

EMD

Developed

Govt

Yield 6.5 5.8 6.0 2.5

Duration 4.8 6.9 5.2 6.7

Page 15: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Return estimates over three years

● Even under the scenario currently priced into

markets, Local EMD offers attractive returns

● The returns are driven by strong components

often overlooked:

1. Yield or accrued income

2. The roll down of the curve

3. Reinvesting matured bonds at higher yields

JPM GBI-EM (Local Currency Sovereign Debt) returns

Local Currency Bond Yield in three years' time

Annualised

Crncy Apprec. 7.00% 7.20% 7.40% 7.60% 7.80% 8.00% 8.20%

3.0% 10.1% 9.8% 9.5% 9.1% 8.8% 8.5% 8.2%

2.0% 9.1% 8.8% 8.5% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2%

1.0% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2%

0.0% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2%

-1.0% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2%

-2.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2%

-3.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2%

-4.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2%

-5.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%

BofAML US Govt Bond – three year forecast

10-year UST Yield in three years' time

3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.90% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%

2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7%

Source: Investec Asset Management Calculations, JPMorgan, BofAML, Bloomberg, as at 17 September

Page 16: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Accessing Emerging Market Debt

EMD Strategic Case

Page 17: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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EM Blended Debt

Accessing the emerging market themes Key drivers and relationships

Source: Investec Asset Management

EM

them

es

Asset

cla

sses

Local

Currency

Debt

Hard

Currency

Debt

EM

Currencies

EM

Corporate

Debt

EM

Equities Commodities

Inflation

improvement

Fiscal policy

strength

BOP

strength

Growing

company

earnings

Corporate

balance

sheet

strength

Higher

productivity

Infrastructure

spend

Macroeconomic strength Aggregate demand growth

Page 18: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Page 18 | CONFIDENTIAL

14873

Global Emerging Market Fixed Income team

Emerging Markets team – November 2012 – Slide 1 of 2

Leah Parento – Utilities, Consumer &

Light Industrials

Peter Eerdmans –

Asia

Werner Gey van Pittius –

MEA & CIS

Antoon de Klerk – Africa

Sergey Bolshakov – Resources

Grant Webster – MEA & CISDuncan Ngandu –

Latam & CEE

Mark Evans –

Asia

Victoria Harling – Quasi-sovereign

Tammy Lloyd – Telecom, Real Estate

& Heavy Industrials

Investment Specialists – Sovereign & Currency

Investment Specialists – Corporate

Vivienne Taberer – Latam Michail Diamantopoulos – CEE

Strategy Leaders

5 Fixed Income & Currency Dealers

Julia PoszmikEMD Investment Support

Stacy Xie – Financials

Thanos PapasavvasFixed Income & Currency Strategist

Wilfred Wee* – Asia

*New joiner May 2013

Page 19: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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14873

Our philosophy in managing local EMD

● Focus on bottom-up decisions:

− Top-down decisions and market-timing are notoriously difficult

− Much easier to add value in relative country and currency positions

● Cover all the bases, don’t get caught up in a single theme:

− Market very good at getting caught up in a single theme

− Much better to analyse wide range of factors so one can be contrarian and be prepared for the next theme

● Use a structured approach to unlock a wide range of opportunities:

− Use quantitative tools and detailed scorecards to provide discipline

− Separate the analysis on local currency bonds, hard currency bonds and currency

● Apply strong diversification through a disciplined portfolio construction process:

− The best way to manage and limit risk in the portfolio

− A wide range of independent ideas should lead to much more consistent alpha

Font size

requested by FM

Page 20: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Disciplined and repeatable process driven by bottom-up views

Portfolio built bottom-up, supplemented with top-down checks and balances

Top-down

Beta

discussion

Vigorous debate

unlocks insight

across Investec’s

investment teams

FINAL

PORTFOLIO

Structured approach

captures

experience and

controls risk

Fundamentals, valuation and

market behaviour

Disciplined approach based on

“Compelling Forces”, covering

wide range of factors

Bottom-up

Page 21: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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14873

-0.16

-0.14

-0.13

-0.05

-0.05

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.05

0.09

0.10

0.16

0.20

0.21

-0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40

Indonesia

Malaysia

Colombia

Philippines

Nigeria

Romania

Peru

Turkey

Poland

South Africa

Hungary

Israel

Thailand

Chile

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

Total = +0.20

Latest Dynamic portfolio – active positions

Active duration positions Active currency positions

The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time

Source: Investec Asset Management, 30 September 2013 Off-composite index positions

\\mercury.iam.corp.investec.com\gdrive\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MA

STER PITCHBOOKS\WORKING FILES\Emerging

Market - DO NOT USE\~Evidence\Emergin

Update: Monthly Dynamic

-6.09%

-5.03%

-4.99%

-4.97%

-2.52%

-2.51%

-2.12%

-1.94%

-0.13%

-0.03%

0.01%

0.01%

0.04%

0.14%

1.81%

1.93%

2.13%

3.82%

4.04%

4.20%

5.02%

-0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06

Taiwan dollar

Singapore dollar

Israel shekel

Chile peso

Czech koruna

Malaysia ringgit

Colombia peso

Turkey lira

Peru nuevo sol

South Africa rand

Romania leu

Thailand baht

Philippines peso

Hungary forint

Nigeria Naira

Mexico peso

Poland zloty

Indonesia rupiah

Korea won

Brazil real

Russia ruble

Total = -7.17%

Page 22: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Page 22 | CONFIDENTIAL

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Update

Quarterly USD

Source: Investec Asset Management GIPS Report. Data to 30 September 2013

*GIPS compliant. **Composite inception date 31 July 2006

Performance would have been lower had management fees been included

Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future, losses may be made. Data is not audited

2006 (Jul) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD)

EM Local Currency Debt Aggregate 10.9% 20.4% -7.1% 31.5% 16.7% -2.3% 18.3% -8.0%

JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged10.9% 18.1% -5.2% 22.0% 15.7% -1.8% 16.8% -7.6%

Relative performance 0.0% 2.3% -1.9% 9.5% 1.0% -0.5% 1.5% -0.5%

Investec Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt (Aggregate)Performance track record

Annualised (Gross) performance in USD*Annual (Gross) performance in USD*

-0.7%

-8.0%

-3.9%

2.1%

8.8%10.3%

-0.4%

-7.6%

-3.7%

1.8%

7.3%9.0%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

3 months YTD 1 year 3 years p.a.

5 years p.a.

Since Inception

p.a.**

EM Local Currency Debt Aggregate

JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversif ied Composite Unhedged

-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

2006 (Jul)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD)

EM Local Currency Debt Aggregate

JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversif ied Composite Unhedged

Page 23: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Page 23 | CONFIDENTIAL

14873

Update

Monthly Data provided by

Mark E

Use TAB:

attribution by month

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MASTER PITCHBOOKS\GSF\GSF

EM Local Currency Debt Fund\~Evidence\EMD Graphs.xlsx\attribution

Bottom 5 contributors Contribution (ann)

Indonesia -0.10%

Poland -0.07%

Czech -0.07%

Slovakia -0.07%

India -0.05%

Top 5 contributors Contribution (ann)

Russia 0.25%

Turkey 0.21%

Brazil 0.18%

South korea 0.17%

Israel 0.17%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

FX Beta Currency selection

Duration Beta

Country selection

Curve &issue

selection

Dollar sov debt

Credit Admin* Total

Emerging Markets Local Currency DebtPerformance attribution

Major alpha sources

(relative % contribution since inception)

Positive contributions from the key bottom-up alpha sourcesPast performance should not be taken as a guide to the future, losses may be made. Data is not audited

Source: Investec Asset Management

Attribution for Emerging Market Local Currency Debt Aggregate composite,

based on actual positions and end-of-day prices. From 31 July 2006 to 30 September 2013

*Admin includes taxes, transaction costs, timing and methodology

Currency Local Debt Other

\\mercury.iam.corp.investec.com\gdrive\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\~MA

STER PITCHBOOKS\WORKING FILES\Emerging

Market - DO NOT USE\~Evidence\Emergin

Update: Monthly EMD but not the 2 currency funds

Page 24: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Why Investec Asset Management?

● Our emerging market roots give us insight into the drivers of emerging markets

● Tried and tested local bond and global currency processes

● Experienced professionals focused on local bond and currency markets

● Bottom-up process aims to generates consistent long/short alpha

● Systematic top-down review of portfolio biases

● We will limit capacity if necessary to preserve alpha opportunities

A passionate team to capture the EM opportunity

Page 25: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

Thank you www.investecassetmanagement.com

Page 26: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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Important information

It should be noted that emerging markets may have less developed political, economic and legal systems therefore these markets carry a higher

than average risk of investment and capital loss.

This communication is not for general public distribution. If you are a private investor and receive it as part of a general circulation, please contact us at +44

(0)20 7597 1900. The value of this investment, and any income generated from it, will be affected by changes in interest rates, general market conditions

and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to the assets in which it invests. The Fund’s investment

objective will not necessarily be achieved and investors are not certain to make profits; losses may be made. The Fund may invest more than 35% of its

assets in securities issued or guaranteed by an EEA state. Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future. Performance would be lower had

initial charges been included and will vary between different share classes dependant upon their applicable charges. Returns to individual investors will vary

in accordance with their personal tax status and tax domicile.

All the information contained in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Any opinions stated are honestly held but

are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. This is not a buy, sell or hold recommendation for any particular security. The portfolio may change

significantly over a short period of time.

Please note that as the Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Fund’s expenses are charged to capital, this has the effect of increasing the Fund’s

distribution (which may be taxable) and constraining its capital performance to an equivalent extent.

This communication is provided for general information only. It is not an invitation to make an investment nor does it constitute an offer for sale. The full

documentation that should be considered before making an investment, including the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, which set out

the fund specific risks, is available from Investec Asset Management.

This communication should not be distributed to private customers who are resident in countries where the Fund is not registered for sale or in any other

circumstances where its distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. Please visit www.investecassetmanagement.com/registrations to check registrations by

country. For Funds registered in Switzerland, the Prospectus, Key Investor Information Documents and Report & Accounts may be obtained free of charge

from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, RBC Investor Services Bank S.A., Esch-sur-Alzette, Badenerstrasse 567, P.O. Box 101, CH-8066 Zurich.

In the USA, this communication should only be read by institutional investors, professional financial advisers and, at their exclusive discretion, their eligible

clients, but must not be distributed to US Persons.

THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR SALE TO US PERSONS.

Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes. Issued by Investec Asset Management Limited, which is authorised and

regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, October 2013.

Page 27: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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14873

Composite disclosure

EMLCD Aggregate

Align top

Align left

C o mpo site: Emerging M arkets Lo cal C urrency D ebt (A ggregate)

A s o f: 30-Sep-2013

C o mpliance Statement

Investec Asset M anagement (IAM ) claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Investec Asset M anagement has

been independently verified for the periods 01-Jan-2000 to 31-Dec-2011.The verification reports are available upon request.

Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm's policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present

performance in compliance with the GIPS standards.Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation.

D efinit io n o f the F irm

For the purposes of GIPS®, the firm is defined as including all institutional and retail assets managed by the London entity of Investec Asset M anagement (IAM ).

C o mpo site D escript io n

Local currency emerging market debt, excluding tailored mandates, run against the JP M organ GBI-EM Global Diversified benchmark, targeting gross outperformance of between 1% and 4% over ro lling 3-year windows, regardless of

universe. Aggregate of Broad and Dynamic composites.

P erfo rmance

Performance stated as gross, is gross of investment management fees and where appropriate, portfo lio net of fees returns have been grossed up using their respective Total Expense Ratios. Performance stated as net, is net of the

highest standard institutional segregated portfo lio management fee shown below.Both gross and net performance are shown net of all trading expenses.All portfo lio returns are calculated net of irrecoverable tax and gross of

recoverable tax on income and capital gains, and the calculation is based on the assumption that tax is deducted from income on the ex-dividend date.

Additional information regarding the firm's policies for valuing portfo lios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request.

C urrency

The currency used to report performance for this composite is as denoted on the accompanying Composite Performance Results report.

D erivat ives D isclo sure

Portfo lios in this composite regularly use bond futures, interest rate swaps, credit linked notes and fx forwards to explo it investment opportunities in emerging markets. M aximum exposure (and therefore implicit leverage) is contro lled by

a VAR limit.

D ispersio n

Dispersion is calculated as the asset weighted standard deviation of all constituent portfo lios that were included in the composite for the entire year. If a composite consists of less than five portfo lios, no measure of dispersion is

presented.

Ex-P o st Standard D eviat io n

The three year annualised standard deviation measures the variability of the composite and benchmark returns over the preceding 36 month period.Standard deviation measures are not shown where there are less than 36 monthly

observations available.

M anagement F ees

The management fee for this composite is based the highest standard institutional segregated portfo lio management fee which is 0.75% per annum.

C o mpo site C reat io n D ate

This composite was created on 01-M ar-2011.

A full composite list with descriptions is available upon request.

C o mpo site Inceptio n D ate

The inception date for this composite is 31-Jul-2006

Page 28: Miami citywire conf oct 2013 v02

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14873

Composite disclosure

Year

Composite

Return

Benchmark

Return

Composite 3-Yr

Ann St Dev

Benchmark 3-Yr

Ann St Dev

Number of

Portfolios

(*throughout

period) Dispersion

Market Value at

end of Period

Percentage of

Firm Assets Total Firm Assets

2013 (Aug) -8.05% -7.56% 13.45% 13.12% 15 (13) 0.41% 10,360,778,335

2012 18.30% 16.76% 13.12% 12.59% 14 (10) 0.33% 10,905,522,842 17.66% 61,748,125,093

2011 -2.27% -1.75% 14.01% 13.37% 10 (7) 0.45% 6,528,109,391 13.38% 48,804,774,923

2010 16.66% 15.68% 17.55% 15.82% 5 (2) N/A 4,911,421,443 11.45% 42,897,339,433

2009 31.47% 21.98% 17.09% 15.22% <5 N/A 905,087,311 3.04% 29,788,291,172

2008 -7.09% -5.22% N/A N/A <5 N/A 148,678,679 0.74% 20,090,966,300

2007 20.39% 18.11% N/A N/A <5 N/A 65,349,749 0.21% 30,599,090,684

2006 (Aug) 10.89% 10.91% N/A N/A <5 N/A 23,049,882 0.10% 23,778,330,870

Gross Returns as of: 30-Sep-2013

Firm: IIM London

Composite Performance Results

Composite: Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt (Aggregate)

Benchmark: JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged

Base Currency: US Dollar


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