Michael Kuby, Professor, ASU School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning

withScott Bernstein, President

Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago

In US, household size is shrinking - andPhoenix is on track with national trend

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Percent of Households with 1-2 Persons

USPhoenix MSA

Phoenix and Maricopa lead nation in gross vacancy rates

• “Of the ten most populous cities in 2010, Phoenix had the highest gross vacancy rate at 12.8 percent.”

• “Of the ten most populous counties in 2010, Maricopa County, AZ, had both the largest percentage-point increase (4.5) during the decade and highest vacancy rate (13.9 percent) in 2010.”

– US Census Bureau, Housing Characteristics 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-07, Oct. 2011.

Metro Phoenix has an oversupply ofsingle-family detached houses

Total SF Detached 1,156,600 100%Total SF Detached Occupied 1,023,500 88.5%Total SF Detached Vacant 133,100 11.5%

Source: American Housing Survey, Table C-01-AH-M for Metropolitan Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, 2011

Vacancies do not include homes under development – permits for SFH still mismatched to household size

% Households 3+ Persons

% Permits Single Family

2005 40.0 86.72013 38.3 69.2

Local civil infrastructure* costs are much higher for low-density development

Low Density (less than 1 unit per acre)

High Density (more than 10 units per acre)

Infrastructure Cost per

Housing Unit $62,000 $25,000

Source: CNT Staff analysis, Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, Madison WI

*Water, sewer, roads. Based on a study by CNT in Wisconsin

Transportation in U.S. Household Budgets

Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.

Annual transportation costs (driving + public transit)

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/

Affordable Locations Relative to Median IncomeHousing < 30% H+T < 45%

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/

Foreclosures were also concentrated on the urban fringe

Source: http://archive.azcentral.com/business/foreclosures/index.php

The Sun Corridor: Far From a Foregone

Conclusion

Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.

ADOT has recommended the yellow route as the preferred alternative for Phoenix-Tucson passenger rail service, but there’s no financing yet.

Source: ADOT, Passenger Rail Study, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, 2015: http://azdot.gov/planning/CurrentStudies/PassengerRail

Will migration continue as the Sun Belt gets hotter?

Source: ADOT Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment, November 2014.

Feel free to contact us

• Prof. Michael Kuby, mikekuby@asu.edu, 480-965-6850

• Scott Bernstein, CNT, scott@cnt.org