1

An Ecosystem Services Approach to Climate Change Adaptation: Case-studies

of Inverloch and Sandy Point, Victoria

Michael Spencer

A project funded by DSE, Gippsland

NOT THE FINAL VERSION

0

Contents Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1

An ecosystem services approach ............................................................................................... 1

Climate Change impacts ................................................................................................................ 3

Ecosystem Services .................................................................................................................... 4 Geographic Scope ........................................................................................................................ 4

Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services ................................................................. 7

Ecosystems and human well-being .........................................................................................13

Bibliography .....................................................................................................................................14

1

Introduction This paper offers an ecosystem services perspective on research being undertaken by an interdisciplinary team to look at what a climate adapted settlement would look like in 20301. The research focuses on two Victorian coastal communities; Inverloch (Bass Coast Shire) and Sandy Point (South Gippsland Shire). These localities are being used as comparative case studies with a view to generalising the findings for a national approach to climate change adaptation for communities. Specifically, this paper is interested in what additional insights can be gained from an ecosystem services approach to assist in understanding climate change impacts on the two communities and the choices available. It is hoped this will contribute to answering a series of research questions posed for this study regarding climate change induced trends; choices communities need to make; maximising well-being, and; generalised principles for small urban settlements. It should be noted that this is not a comprehensive evaluation but rather an indicative study intended to highlight areas for potential further work. As such any conclusions drawn should be seen as tentative and indicative rather than conclusive and comprehensive. Nevertheless it is hoped that this paper will contribute to the study team’s deliberations.

An ecosystem services approach An ecosystem services approach has been adopted for a number of studies examining the impacts of climate change, for example (Daly-Hassen, Potthast, & Gader, 2012) (Kareiva, Tallis, Ricketts, Daily, & Polansky, 2011). In general, the approach is to examine the impact of climate change on a range of specified ecosystem services and the potential of that impact to change human well-being. In other words, how will climate change impact biophysical and human systems in a way that influences the availability of ecosystem services, what are the likely consequences for human well-being and the choices that need to be made. As this project is brief and general in nature, it will focus on an identification of the services likely to be impacted rather than attempt to quantify the extent of those impacts. The starting point for many ecosystem service assessments is the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005) conceptual framework illustrated in Figure 1 below. The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment framework shows the linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being.

1 NCCARF; What would climate adapted settlements look like?

2

Figure 1 Linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being

(Wittmer & Gundimeda, 2012) The diagram below from a subsequent project, The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) shows how human interventions impact the relationships between ecosystems and biodiversity and human well-being based on the choices made by a community or set of decision-makers. Figure 2: TEEB pathway from ecosystems and biodiversity services to human well-being

(Kumar, 2010)

3

Neville Ash and his colleagues (Ash & et. al., 2010) emphasise the need to consider both the ‘process and the product’ in any ecosystem assessment; stakeholders need to be fully engaged in the process design. This is because ecosystem assessments involve choices between services based on values held by the individuals making those decisions. Lack of stakeholder ownership of the process will diminish the legitimacy of the assessment with its intended audience. Defining scope is an essential precondition. Boundaries are important but not necessarily the boundaries set by project sponsors. Contrary to their views about stakeholder ownership, Ash et al (Ash & et. al., 2010) believe the geographic boundaries for an ecosystem assessment may be different from the boundaries envisaged by the intended audience. For instance, in this project, the boundaries set are two towns but as will be shown below, the ecosystem boundaries will be difference to the socio-political boundaries envisaged. “In many cases there will be a geographic mismatch between the most appropriate units for assessment of ecosystems and their services (which depend on biophysical data and their boundaries) and those for assessment of human well-being (which depend on socio-political and economic data and boundaries).” (Ash et. al. 2010:13) The process adopted for this project is set out in Figure 3 below starting with a summary of anticipated changes anticipated for the two towns as a result of climate change, considering these in the context of the range of potential ecosystem services, itemising potential change in ecosystem services and the impact of these changes on human well-being.

Climate Change impacts The draft report Climate Futures for the South East Australian Coasts (Monash Sustainability Institute, 2012) notes a number of trends that could be expected to impact Inverloch and Sandy Point over the course of this century. These are summarised in Table 1 under four headings; Temperature, Precipitation, Sea Level Rise and Extreme Events. It should be noted that there are a large number of caveats in relation to the forecasts summarised below and a great deal of variability within the ranges listed. In some cases, beyond the ranges indicated. The baseline used for projections below is generally 1990 or close to that date.

Climate Change Impacts

Ecosystem Services

Change in Ecosystem

Services

Change in human

well-being

Potential Adaptation Strategies

Figure 3: Review process for this assessment

4

Table 1: Summary of Anticipated Climate Change Impacts

2030 2050 Temperature Temperature rise 0.3°- 1.5°C 1° - 3°C 1:20 year hottest day 1:3 – 1:5 by 2055 1:3.5 by 2090 Precipitation Rainfall decline 0 – 10% 0 – 40% 1:20 Extreme rainfall 1:15-17 by 2055 1:9-17 by 2090 Consecutive dry days Increase by 2090 Sea surface temperature Increase 0.3° - 2° Increase 1° - 4° Sea level Sea level rise 0.2m 0.52m+ Extreme Events Flooding events Increased risk of ‘double

whammy’ (tide, storm) Large increase toward end of century

Storm tides +0.02m – 0.2m Up to 2m total

+0.04m – 0.6m Up to 2.5m total

(Monash Sustainability Institute, 2012)

Ecosystem Services The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005) and subsequent contributions such as (Kumar, 2010) and (Wittmer & Gundimeda, 2012) provide useful catalogues of ecosystem services. These are summarised in Table 2 below.

Geographic Scope As mentioned earlier, geographic scope for an ecosystem services assessment is not necessarily the same as the socio-political scope set for the project. This is discussed below in the context of Inverloch and Sandy Point. Water is relevant to a number of ecological services considered in this study: provisioning services such as agriculture, fisheries and other consumptive uses; recreational, cultural and tourism services associated with Anderson Inlet (Inverloch) and Shallow Inlet (Sandy Point); regulating services such as flood control, and; maintenance of habitat. Figure 4 shows Inverloch situated between the Powlett and Tarwin Rivers; both are important. Town water for Inverloch is supplied from Lance Creek in the Powlett catchment and Anderson Inlet is fed from the Tarwin. Both rivers have their origin in the Strzelecki Ranges where intensive plantation forestry occurs. There is a proposal by South Gippsland Water (South Gippsland Water, 2007) to link the Lance Creek reservoir to communities to the north (Korumburra and Leongatha) and then to the Melbourne supply system. As a result, Inverloch will be linked to a series of catchments and the desalination plant (Figure 5). Sandy Point on the other hand does not have access to water or wastewater services from South Gippsland Water and the community is dependent on rainwater for tanks.

5

Similarly, for recreational, cultural and tourism services the relevant scope here is much broader than the towns themselves. Both towns have strong linkages to Melbourne and Victoria because of their role as tourist and holiday centres for this broader economic catchment. The services themselves are dependent on the existence and health of features such as Anderson Inlet and Shallow Inlet that provide aesthetic, recreational (fishing, boating, kiting etc.) services as well as opportunities to relate more broadly to nature (biodiversity). Beaches in the vicinity of Sandy Point are relevant to that town as well as the range of services offered by Shallow Inlet, Wilson’s Promontory and the surrounding district. Table 2: Ecosystem services risk assessment

Service Description Provisioning; material or energy outputs from ecosystems Food Conditions for growing food from managed agro-

ecosystems, marine, freshwater, forests etc. Raw materials Materials for construction, fuel, products such as

wood, biofuels, oils derived directly or cultivated Fresh water Water flow and purification Medicinal resources Traditional medicines as well as inputs for

pharmaceuticals (known and potential) Regulating Services; ecosystems as regulators of the natural environment Climate/air quality Influence trees and forests on temperature

(including shade), rainfall, air quality Carbon sequestration and storage

Storing and sequestering greenhouse gasses as well as well as assisting adaptation

Moderation extreme events Buffers against natural disasters (floods, storms, tsunamis, avalanches, bushfires, landslides)

Waste-water treatment Filters for human and animal waste and buffer to protect surrounding environment

Erosion control, soil fertility

Vegetation cover prevents soil erosion; soil fertility essential for agriculture and plant growth

Pollination Provided by insects, birds and bats. 87 out of 115 leading food crops depend on animal pollination

Biological control Regulation of pests and diseases that attack plants, animals and people (predators and parasites)

Habitat and Supporting Services; underpinning services, living spaces Habitats for species Food, water and shelter for plants and animals

essential for species lifecycle (incl. migratory) Genetic diversity Locally and well-adapted gene pool for further

developing crops and livestock Cultural Services; aesthetic, spiritual and psychological benefits for people Recreation and health Ares for physical activities and interaction with

the natural environment Tourism Visitation from residents of other areas Aesthetic appreciation Inspiration for art, culture and science Spiritual experience, place Sacred and religious meaning, customs, knowledge

6

For food production, Inverloch and Sandy Point sit within the broader South Gippsland agricultural area. Inverloch is a relevant but junior service centre for this region. Wonthaggi and Leongatha are of greater significance but Inverloch has at least one agricultural supplies provider as well as banks and insurance agents. Hence impacts of climate change on food production are relevant albeit relatively small. The importance of Anderson Inlet as a native fish hatchery has implications for food production as well as tourism and recreation services. Figure 4: West Gippsland Catchment Ecosystems

Source: West Gippsland CMA website accessed May 2012

Figure 5: Inverloch water supply

West Gippsland CMA accessed May 2012

7

Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services The impact of climate change viewed through this perspective reveals a different set of issues to what would be revealed if the towns were simply seen in isolation. One of the biggest challenges both communities face is the growing demand for residential real estate in coastal areas. South Gippsland Water identified both Sandy Bay and Inverloch in 2007 as places where real estate prices were being driven by ‘an influx of a new socio-economic segment’. At the time it listed Sandy Bay as a place with ‘Greater Development Potential’ because of its low population (210) and high number of residential allotments (590) (SGW 2007). With climate change expected to raise the average temperature and increase the number of extremely hot days, more moderate increases in South Gippsland and milder coastal climate will increase the attraction for people from Melbourne (and inland Victoria). This will increase pressure for sub-division adding to social and ecological pressures on the towns. The pressure of population growth, that is likely to be accelerated as a result of a more attractive climate, will add to demand for services such as water and waste-water. Inverloch is currently serviced by the Lance Creek reservoir in the Powlett River catchment. While this 4200 ML storage is able to serve the needs of Inverloch and Wonthaggi, in the 2006-07 drought, South Gippsland Water sold supply from Lance Creek to neighbouring Westernport Water where storages had fallen to just 6 per cent of capacity. This put extra stress on Lance Creek and raised operating costs (South Gippsland Water, 2007). Future climate change scenarios predict lower flows for rivers in Gippsland of between 5 and 50% by 2070 (DSE, Victoria). South Gippsland Water is now planning to permanently link Lance Creek to Leongatha and Korumburra as well as Melbourne (South Gippsland Water, 2012), this will increase water security to the same level as Melbourne and lock the community to high Melbourne prices due to costs of desalinated water (and environmental impacts of the desalination plant). Sandy Point on the other hand will need to catch its own water from rainfall and this will be influenced directly by declining rainfall in the region and potentially greater gaps between rain days and higher temperatures. Should rainwater tanks run dry expensive water would need to be ‘trucked-in’. If the population includes more permanent residents, particularly older retirees this could create social problems because of the costs involved. As well, treatment of wastewater will grow as a problem if the community is dependent on septic tanks, particularly for neighbouring wetlands in Shallow Inlet. The map at Annex 1 shows the proximity of existing development in the community to wetlands and land subject to flood inundation. Further development would need to be sensitive to the risk of seepage impacting wetlands and flood inundation. Extreme or ‘double whammy’ flood events pose the most severe threat to both Inverloch and Sandy Point. “Anderson Inlet and the township of Inverloch, will at times suffer the combination of sea level rise as well as terrestrial flooding

8

from the Tarwin River system which will create the “perfect storm” combination as far as flooding events as has been witnessed at Lakes Entrance in East Gippsland.” (Lennox, Baby, & Peterson, 2011) The extent of the potential inundation is illustrated in the series of simulations shown in Figure 6 to 9 below (Grace GIS Services, 2008) where the first shows the current level of Anderson Inlet, the second shows the inlet with a 2.0m flood (potential 2030) and the third a 2.5 m flood (potential 2050). Figure 6: Anderson Inlet and Inverloch current

Figure 7: Anderson Inlet and Inverloch, 2m storm flood

9

Figure 8: Anderson Inlet and Inverloch, 2.5 m storm flood

Of particular interest for this study is that above 2 metres the storm flood begins to encroach into the Inverloch township and lower lying property subdivisions. This is shown more clearly below (Figure 9) with property boundaries. Figure 9: Inverloch with high storm flood

While a similar tool is not available for Sandy Point, Figure 10 shows that it is surrounded by low-lying land that would be subject to inundation with storm floods of 2 metres or above.

10

Figure 10: Coastal Digital Elevation Mapping showing Inverloch and Sandy Point

(Victorian Government) As well as inundation, storm surges are expected to result in increased erosion in a number of coastal areas. As both Anderson Inlet and Shallow Inlet are surrounded by sand dunes this is likely to impact both although there does not appear to be an analysis of how or where this increased erosion will be seen. The impact of climate change on services that depend on biodiversity is known in general terms although more work is needed to investigate specific impacts. The Victorian Government says: “Many of Victoria's ecosystems have a limited ability to adapt to climate change. Those restricted to small geographic areas, or unable to migrate fast enough to keep pace with shifting climatic zones, will be particularly vulnerable. However, some ecosystems and species will be advantaged or unaffected by climate change. Climate change is already affecting plants and animals.” (DSE, Victoria). Ecosystem services dependent on biodiversity include regulatory services (pollination and biological control),

11

habitat and supporting services and a range of cultural, aesthetic and recreational services. In October 2010, consultants Aluvium prepared a Strategic Directions Statement on ecosystems in the Bunurong catchment (which includes the Powlett and Tarwin Rivers as well as Anderson Inlet and Shallow Inlet) (Zavadil & Ferguson, 2010). The statement highlighted a number of important biodiversity aspects of the region including:

• Large areas of remnant native vegetation lie along the coast with coastal scrub and grasslands from Anderson Inlet to Cape Liptrap. This vegetation corridor forms part of an east-west bio link.

• Coastal parks and reserves in the area constitute the largest continuous marine protected area in the central Victorian bioregion.

• There are good populations of native fish in many waterways. The Tarwin is listed as an important river for the threatened Australian Grayling and is considered necessary for long-term survival of the species. Remnant blackfish are of important social value to the region.

• Bunurong Catchment waterways are valued for micro invertebrate communities and significant threatened flora and fauna.

• Both Anderson Inlet and Shallow Inlet are listed as wetlands of national importance. Both provide habitat for migratory water birds, native fish and other species. Birdlife International (Birdlife) lists Shallow Inlet and Anderson Inlet as an Important Bird Areas (IPA) because both support more than 1 per cent of the world’s population of three species (three Shalow Inlet and one Anderson Inlet). Shallow Inlet was declared a Marine and Coastal Park in 1986. Anderson Inlet is one of only four locations in Victoria where mangroves have been found to occur (Ross, 2000).

• Many small spring fed remnant swamps in the Tarwin region are important to biodiversity in the region

• 20 known threatened flora species and 57 known threatened fauna species in the region

12

Figure 11: Wetland areas on Anderson Inlet, Shallow Inlet and surrounding areas

(Zavadil & Ferguson, 2010) The social and economic significance of these features were highlighted by Alluvium in pointing to the significant recreational value for bird watching, walking, fishing, boating and swimming. “Anderson Inlet alone is estimated to attract 30,000 visitors a day during peak season” for sailing, water skiing, surfing, windsurfing and kite surfing. The clash between these natural assets and development came to a head almost 10 years ago in 2003 when a proposal to develop 348 hectares of land at Venus Bay to 2,000 housing lots was put to a public meeting of more than 500 people. Opposition focused on the threat the project posed to what were referred to as Venus Bay Wetlands. The Venus Bay Wetlands Project is a community effort to resist development and seek opportunities to protect and enhance wetlands in the middle to upper reaches of Anderson Inlet. The wetlands have already been impacted by human development. This issue highlights that in addition to direct climate change pressures (temperature, rainfall, sea-level and extreme events), population pressure from people seeking a milder coastal climate will add to stress in the region. Even though Venus Bay had a population of less than 500 in 2003, more than 4,000 signatures opposing the project were obtained (Venus Bay Wetlands Project). Beyond tourism, the region’s agricultural production (food services) will be affected by climate change although this will impact Sandy Point very little and Inverloch less than centers such as Leongatha, Korumburra and Wonthaggi. The area near Inverloch (West Tarwin) is one of the most productive in Gippsland due to rainfall and soil. The majority of agriculture in the areas is dairy and beef

13

(80 per cent) with hay, now peas, sheep and lamb being the next largest contributors. Farmers in the area (particularly diary) are already making adjustments to practices in anticipation of climate change. Inverloch does have a role as a limited partial service centre for these industries. In their August 2010 report, Aluvium made two recommendations in relation to climate change adaptation for the region (Zavadil & Ferguson, 2010):

• Develop an appropriate planning framework around future development (coastal and townships) to minimize impact on environment and ecosystem services, incorporating issues of population growth and climate change – to be informed by a review of development regulations for the catchment.

• Investment into biolinks and on-farm measures to build ecosystem resilience into the landscape and protect the natural assets that also provide important ecosystem services.

Ecosystems and human well-being One observation from this brief study is that towns can’t be considered in isolation from the source and markets for the ecosystem services on which they depend. Adaptation strategies need to be considered in a broader special context. The paper has also highlighted that while the relationships are relatively easy to understand in the broad sense, models of those relationships will require much more work including detailed data gathering and analysis, particularly impacts of climate change on ecological balances. Nevertheless, this analysis has shown that economic analysis alone will not provide a sufficient base for adaptation strategies without considering the relationship between human processes and biophysical processes in this region. The two dot points provided by the Aluvium (Zavadil & Ferguson, 2010) research provide a useful starting point in so far as they point to a link between the pressures of population growth and climate change. To clarify the path forward resilience thresholds for key ecosystem services need to be defined so that in avoiding problems created by one threat, climate change, the region’s ecosystem services are not tipped over the precipice by another, population growth. An ecosystem assessment of the catchment beyond the Aluvium work would help the community understand the contribution of ecosystems to their welfare, understand the value of those ecosystems, ensure appropriate investment and risk management strategies are in place and, engage the community collectively in managing those systems for present and future generations. In so far as there is a message that can be distilled from this paper for a model adaptation strategy that can be constructed for rural communities generally, it is that one size won’t fit all and each community will need to understand its relationship with nature and the interaction between natural and human

14

systems. Simply focusing on human systems and tightly defined social-political entities such as towns will risk missing some crucial interactions and systems that support those communities.

Bibliography Ash, N., & et. al. (2010). Ecosystems and human Well-Being: A manual for assessment practitioners. Island Press. Birdlife. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2012, from Birdlife International: www.birdlife.org Daly-Hassen, H., Potthast, M., & Gader, G. (2012). Towards and economic assessment of ecosystem services under climate change: Cases of cork oak forest and Alfa grass in Tunisia. TEEB Conference. Leipzig. DSE, Victoria. (n.d.). Regional Projections, West Gippsland. Retrieved May 2012, from Understanding Climate Change: http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/regional-projections/west-gippsland Grace GIS Services. (2008). Flood Inundation Modelling - Anderson Inlet, Victoria. (Gippsland Coastal Board) Retrieved May 2012, from Grace GIS Services: www.gracegis.com.au/andersoninlet Kareiva, P., Tallis, H., Ricketts, T., Daily, G., & Polansky, S. (2011). Natural Capital. Oxford. Kumar, P. (Ed.). (2010). The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Ecological and Economic Foundations. London: Earthscan. Lennox, P., Baby, N., & Peterson, J. (2011). Local Government perspective on Climate Change as an added consideration in maintaining and extending drainage infrastructure. Proceedings of the Surveying and Spacial Sciences Bienial Conference. MA. (2005). Millenium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report. Washington, D.C., USA: Island Press. Monash Sustainability Institute. (2012). Climate Futures for South East Australian Coasts (Draft ed.). Ross, R. (2000). Mangroves and Salt Marshes in Westernport Bay, Victoria. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research. Melbourne: Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Victoria. South Gippsland Water. (2007). South Gippsland Water Plan 2008/9 to 2012/13. South Gippsland Water. (2012). Water Plan III. South Gippsland Water. Venus Bay Wetlands Project. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2012, from Venus Bay Wetlands: Venusbaywetlands.com Victorian Government. (n.d.). Understanding Climate Change. Retrieved May 2012, from Coastal Digital Elevation Model, Eastern Section, San Remo to Seaspray: http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/future-coasts/digital-elevation-models-and-data Wittmer, H., & Gundimeda, H. (2012). The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in Local and Regional Policy and Management. Routledge. World Resources Institute (WRI). (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being; Biodiversity Synthesis. Island Press. Zavadil, E., & Ferguson, C. (2010). Bunurong Catchment Ecosystem Strategic Direction Statement (Report P110047_R02). Alluvium. West Gippsland Catchment Management Authority.