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Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl
Michael StahlHead of Economic Department
GESAMTMETALLthe employers’ association of the German
metal and electrical industry
The current economic Situation of the Germanmetal and electrical industry
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 2
Branches of the M+E Industry
• Automotive industry • Mechanical engineering • Electrical engineering • Fabricated metal goods industry • Foundries • Communication equipment• Medical, precision and optical
instruments • Steel working, steel rolling • Non-ferrous metalworking industries • Steel and light metal construction• Shipbuilding and marine engineering• Drawing and cold rolling mills• Aerospace equipment, manufacturing
and repair
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 4
60
80
100
120
140
Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
July
Incoming orders (by origin)
Upwards againIndex value 2005 = 100, quarterly figures, seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price
July 2009 compared to July 2008
Abroad: -27,8 % Domestic: -13,9 % Total: -21,5 %
Domestic
Abroad
Source: Federal Statistical Office.
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 5
60
80
100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bottom of the crisis
July 2009 compared to July 2008Fabricated Metal Goods: - 28,5% Electrical Engineering: - 16,6% Mechanical Engineering: - 40,7% Automotive Industry: - 8,1%
1.Q.
July/June 2009 compared to April/May 2009 seasonally adjusted
Fabricated Metal Goods: +2,4% Electrical Engineering: +5,2% Mechanical Engineering: +9,2% Automotive Industry: +11,3% April/May
June/July
Incoming orders by branches
Mechanical Engineering
Fabricated Metal Goods
Electrical Engineering
Automotive Industry
Index value 2005 = 100,quarterly figures, seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price
Source: Federal Statistical Office.
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 6
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Still on the bottom
July
July 2009 compared to July 2008 -25.7 percent
Production
Quarterly figures, seasonally adjustedIndex value 2005 = 100
Source: Federal Statistical Office.
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 7
Production by branches
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fall stopped
Fabricated Metal Goods: -33,5% Electrical Engineering: -24,8% Mechanical Engineering: -31,5% Automotive Industry: -21,5%
July 2009 compared to July 2008
1.Vj.
June/July
April/May
Source: Federal Statistical Office.
Mechanical Engineering
Fabricated Metal Goods
Electrical Engineering
AutomotiveIndustry
Quarterly figures, seasonally adjustedIndex value 2005 = 100
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 8
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan. 76,2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
July 69,3
Normal use of capacity
Source: ifo Business Survey.
Average degree of capacity utilisation in percent of their full use of capacity
As low as never before
Capacity Utilisation
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 9
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
July
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.474
Increase in Employment from April 2006 to September 2008:
+242.000
Reduction
July 2009 compared to July 2008 -4.4 percent
Reduction since October 2008:-154.000
Employment
Seasonally adjustedMeasured in thousands of employees
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Gesamtmetall Calculations; *2009 prelimenary figures.
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005
The gap opened again
2006
vacant positions* (reported and not reported)
2007
August
2008 2009
Seasonally adjustedMeasured in thousands of people
Unemployed People
*) according to FAL researches every second vacant position isn‘t reported to FEA
Sources: Federal Employment Agency (FEA), Gesamtmetall calculations.
Labour Market of M+E Occupations
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 11
Job security
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Incoming Orders
Employees
2. Q. July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June
Expected employment at a normal level of productivity
Companies stick to permanent staff
Production
seasonally adjusted
Index value 2. Quarter 2008 = 100
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Gesamtmetall Calculations.
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 12
Short-time work in the M+E Industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mrz Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Sources: Federal Statistical Office
thousand
2008 2009
480.224
121.200
71.200
363.873
225.263
288.200
648.700
726.200
142.799
82.045
73.539
967.200
974.500896.400
40.721
Short-time work is exploding – Wave of announcements ebbs away
Number of people covered by announcements
Number of Short-time worker
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 13
Full time work
netpay
SC
100 % Short-time work
netpay
SC
100 % Short-time work +
further training
netpay
SC
SC = Contributions to Social Security Insurance
Employer Employee
0 € 0 €
What does the employer have to pay?
only up to 7th month
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 14
Example: 50 % Short-time work
Short-time work with 50 % reduction of working time
netpay
Employer Federal Employment Agency
netpay
cancellednet pay
STWA67 %Employees
pay
STWA = Short-time working allowance
ES*
Employer subsidy by CA(*not in all regions)
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 15
-3,7 -2,6 -1,5
28,2 29,5
-6,5
0,0
-17,6
5,73,8 3,1
-16,1
1,4
11,2
1. half-year
2. half-year
1. half-year
3.Q 4.Q 1.Q 2.Q 3.Q
2007 2008 2009
Source: Federal Statistical Office.
Job security
Declining productivity – rising costs
Production per hour
Unit labour cost
Annual percentage change
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 16
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sep.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bottom of the crisis
May
Business Situation
Source: ifo Business Survey.
The balance values of the current business situation are the differences of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”
Assessment of the present state of business
Balance values, seasonally adjusted
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 17
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sep.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Positive again
Business Expectations
The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”
Business outlook for the coming half-year
Balance values, seasonally adjusted
Source: ifo Business Survey.
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 18
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Obviously less Sceptical
Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun.
Expected Development of Exports for the next 3 Months
2008 2009
Business Expectations
Source: ifo Business Survey
The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “expected to rise” and “expected to decline”
Expected Development of Production for the next 3 Months
Balance values
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 19
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20Further Layoffs in Sight
Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun.
2008 2009
Balance values
The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “expected to rise” and “expected to decline”
Expected Development of Employment for the next 3 Months
Source: ifo Business Survey
Business Expectations
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 20
Consumer Prices
3,1
1,6
0,8
0,3
-0,2
0,6
1,0 1,1 1,2 1,2
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
III IV I II III IV I II III IV
Close to Stability
annual percentage change
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Consensus Forecasts, September 2009
quarterly figures
2008 2009
forecasts
July -0,5 Aug. 0,0
2010
Berlin 09-10-02 Dr. Michael Stahl 21
Forecasts 2010
2008 2009 2010
GDP 1,3 -4 1/2 1 1/2
productivity 0,0 -2 1/2 3
consumer spending 0,4 1/2 -1/2
public spending 2,1 2 1/2 2
investment 3,3 -22 1/2
export 2,9 -15 5
import 4,3 9 1/2 3
consumer prices 2,6 0 1
Out of the Crises?annual percentage changes
source: IW Köln, 21.9.2009