Mid-year population estimates 2017

Dr Pali LehohlaStatistician General

@StatsSA#Population

Mid-year population estimates uses the latest available data on fertility, mortality and migration to estimate the population size of

South Africa.

56,52 MillionSouth Africa’s population, mid 2017 is

SouthAfrica’smid-yearpopulationhasincreasedby

902200from2016estimates.

South Africa’s population, mid 2017

56,52 Mil

51% 49%

Female Male

(28,9M) (27,6M)

White 8%(4,5M)

Coloured 9%(5M)

Indian 2%(1,4M)

Black African 81%45,7M

TotalbyPopulationGroups

1,21M

2.89M

3,85M

4,44M

5,78M

6.5M

6,51M

11,06M

14.27M

0,00M 2,00M 4,00M 6,00M 8,00M 10,00M 12,00M 14,00M 16,00M

NorthernCape

FreeState

NorthWest

Mpumalanga

Limpopo

EasternCape

WesternCape

KwaZulu-Natal

Gauteng

There are 14,3M people living in Gauteng and it remains

South Africa’s most populated province. The Northern Cape is the province with the smallest population with 1,2M

people.

PopulationRankbyProvince

WC26%

NC29%

EC34%

FS30%

NW30%

LP35%

MP32%

KZN32%

GP25%

South Africa30%

Limpopo and Eastern Cape have the highest proportion

of people 15 years and under.

Distributionofthoseyoungerthan15yearswithineachprovince

0-4

40-44

5-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-39

AgeprofileofGautengandEasternCape

EasternCape

Gauteng

Male Female

Gauteng hasmoreworkingagepopulationcomparedtotheEasternCape.

EasternCapehasayoungeragedpopulationwithmorechildren

The rate of population growth has increased over time from 1,17 in 2002 to 1,61 in 2017

1,171,61

-1,50

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

2002/3 2004/5 2006/7 2008/9 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17

GrowthRate

TotalGrowthRate

-0,85

1,56

-1,50

-0,50

0,50

1,50

2,50

3,50

2002/3

2004/5

2006/7

2008/9

2010/11

2012/13

2014/15

2016

/17

Declining population growth rates among young people (15-34) in conjunction with increasing growth rates among elderly aged 60+ indicates

that South Africa's population is Ageing.

GrowthRate

Elderly60+

2,48

0,182002/3

2004/5

2006/7

2008/9

2010/11

2012/13

2014/15

2016

/17

02/03 16/17 02/03 16/17 02/03 16/17

Due to the impact of HIV and AIDS, there was negative growth among children under 15, but with the introduction of PMTCT and ART programs there was a reverse in the growth rate among children from negative to positive.

Youth15-34Children0-14

Fertility(births)

On average, a woman will

give birth tochildren in

her lifetimeProvided that current fertility

behavior prevails

2,41

21,7

24,8

21,4

2,5 2,46

2,73 2,72

2,41

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fertility

Total Fertility RateCrude Birth Rate

Link to demographic dividend: As the rate at which births occur declines, the young dependent population grows smaller in

relation to the working-age population. With more workers and fewer young people to support, a country will have a window of

opportunity for accelerated economic growth.

2.7

2,4Fertilityhasdeclinedfromanaverageof2,73childrenperwomanin2007to2,41childrenperwomanin2017

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

LP EC NW MP NC KZN FS WC GP

National average of children born per female in 2017 GPandWC

experienceaTFRlowerthanthatofthenationalaverage

of2.41

FertilityRates

ProvincialFertilityRates

Mortality (deaths)

LifeexpectancyofSouthAfricansin2017

64years(2017)

Lifeexpectancyhasincreasedby

approximately2yearsbetween2012and2017

NDPtarget:70yearsby2030

LifeexpectancyofSouthAfricansin2017

61,2yearsformales

66,7yearsforfemales

National Development Priorities:Tracking and achieving

progress in demographics

52,9 52,3

61,256,6

54,7

66,7

40,0

45,0

50,0

55,0

60,0

65,0

70,0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

The decline in Life Expectancy between 2002 and 2006 can be attributed to the impact of HIV

and AIDS.

The gains in life expectancy is accredited to access to ART

LifeExpectancy

Peoplearelivinglonger

LifeExpectancy

Years

72

70

66

65

65

64

64

64

62

67

64

61

61

60

58

58

58

560 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

WCGPNCLPMPNWEC

KZNFS

LifeexpectancybyprovinceAverageof5yeargapinlifeexpectancybetweenmalesandfemales

Years

HIV population (in millions) Prevalence of persons living with HIV

17,65 17,98

20,23 21,17

7,314,64

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Adults15-49 Women15-49 Youth

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

PersonslivingwithHIV

The decline in prevalence among youth is an indication of decline in the

rate of new infections

7.06 million people are living with HIV. This represents 13 in every 100 people

Over time HIV prevalence amongst adults age 15-49 is increasing whilst declining

among youth 15-24

Improved access and uptake of ARVs in SA has enabled HIV positive people to live longer and healthier lives leading to

an increase in the HIV population over time.

Approximatelyone-fifthofSouthAfricanwomenintheirreproductiveagesareHIVpositive.HIVprevalenceamongtheyouthaged15-24hasdeclinedovertime

from7,3%in2002to4,6in2017.

Rates

13,4 9,0

48,1

32,8

71,3

42,4

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mortality

CrudeDeathRate

InfantMortalityRate

The crude death rate is down from 13,4 deaths per 1 000 people in 2002 to 9,0 deaths per 1 000

people in 2017

Infant mortality has declined from 48,1 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2002 to 32,8

infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2017Under5MortalityRate

Migration

African

1072557

Asia59 432

White-112 740

Immigration contributes to the

growth of the South African population

Internationalmigration2016-2021

Overthelast5yearperiod5outofevery10internationalmigranthassettledinGP

Gauteng, Western Cape, Mpumalanga and the North West province are net receivers of

in-migrants

Limpopo and the Eastern Cape experienced the largest outflow

SelectedProvincialOutMigrationFlows

Western Cape Gauteng Eastern Cape Limpopo

Gauteng is the most preferred destination for international and inter-provincial migrants in South Africa

Whereas Eastern Cape and Limpopo experienced the biggest outflow related to

internal migration

SelectedProvincialInMigrationFlows

Thank youThe Mid-year population estimates, 2017 is also available to download

from the Stats SA app