Middle Eastern Regional Internet Trends… · The IPv6 Internet is growing very slowly in the...

Middle Eastern Regional Internet Trends

December 2010

© 2010 Renesys Corporation. http://www.renesys.com Page 2


Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 4

Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................ 5

Methodology and Interpretation ............................................................................................................. 9

Country Summaries ............................................................................................................................... 11

Iraq.................................................................................................................................................... 12

Oman ................................................................................................................................................ 16

Lebanon ............................................................................................................................................ 18

Syria .................................................................................................................................................. 21

Qatar ................................................................................................................................................. 22

Bahrain .............................................................................................................................................. 25

Jordan ............................................................................................................................................... 34

Kuwait ............................................................................................................................................... 37

Iran.................................................................................................................................................... 41

Egypt ................................................................................................................................................. 44

Saudi Arabia ...................................................................................................................................... 47

United Arab Emirates ........................................................................................................................ 52

Regional Trends in Internet Transit Markets .......................................................................................... 55

Market Dominance of International Providers: “On-Net” Percentages ............................................... 56

Market Dominance of Domestic Providers: “On-Net” Percentages..................................................... 60

Key Internet Outage Event of 2010 ........................................................................................................ 64

Snapshot of the IPv6 Regional Internet ................................................................................................. 67

IPv6 Trends by Country ...................................................................................................................... 68

The Future of the IPv6+IPv4 Dual Internet ......................................................................................... 68

Appendix A: Routing Terminology ......................................................................................................... 69


Executive Summary

The Bahrain Telecommunications Regulatory Authority has asked Renesys to examine recent trends in IP

interconnection for Bahrain and its neighbors in the Gulf region. The goal of the 2010-2011 study will be

to fairly and objectively characterize the evolution of the region’s primary Internet service providers,

their patterns of interconnection, and their response to infrastructure incidents such as submarine cable

cuts.

At the close of 2010, the Middle East’s national Internet ecosystems contained nearly 11,000 distinct

IPv4 networks, out of roughly 380,000 on Earth. Renesys continually monitors the paths traffic takes to

reach every worldwide network, and actively verifies the performance of those paths using multipoint

latency measurement.

Together, these datasets permit the objective study of interconnection and Internet transit diversity,

integrating regional network observations that have been collected continuously over a period of years.

Key findings include:

The largest domestic providers of the region tend to have a higher than average on-net market

share, suggesting restricted competition.

Bahrain is a notable exception to this trend, and leads the region in lowering the percentage of

the domestic market seen on-net with the largest domestic providers.

As 2010 comes to a close, Bahraini providers are taking advantage of more diverse international

transit than ever before.

Bahraini providers still have fewer available choices for international transit than others in the

region. Two new submarine cable landings should improve this picture in 2011, and the region

will have additional terrestrial connectivity options as well.

The Bahrain Internet Exchange, once the default alternative provider in the Kingdom, is losing

market share as with the arrival of more international transit diversity.

Batelco’s lack of multihomed customers artificially constrains their on-net share of the domestic

market, and potentially their growth.

The April 2010 shunt fault on the Sea-Me-We-4 cable off of Alexandria showed that major cable

failures are survivable, if nations pursue a strategy of achieving significant international transit

diversity.

The IPv6 Internet is growing very slowly in the region, despite the looming threat of IPv4 address

space exhaustion. A prolonged and potentially painful multi-year transition period is inevitable,

and may pose special challenges for regional regulators.


Key Findings

The largest domestic providers of the region tend to have a higher than average on-net market share,

suggesting restricted competition. However, Bahrain is a notable exception to this trend.

The average “largest domestic provider” on Earth sells

to 36% of their own national market, as evidenced by

published routes to domestic customers. Lower-than-

average on-net percentages for largest providers are

common in highly competitive markets such as the USA

(9%), Great Britain (11%), Germany (14%), and Canada

(27%), where a deep field of competitors reduces the

likelihood that any single largest domestic provider will

serve a dominant percentage of the national market.

Within the Gulf region, the weighted average is 71% on

net with a single provider, roughly twice the worldwide

average.

”On-net" percentages for largest domestic providers. Orange indicates 50%+ of the domestic market on-net with a single provider, red 90%+. Bahrain is light green, at 28%.


Bahrain (28%), Kuwait (35%), Iraq (38%), and Egypt (38%) score in line with worldwide averages. In

these countries, multiple independent service providers compete to offer access to international transit,

so that no single provider gains what could be considered a dominant share of the domestic IP transit

market “on net.”

Saudi Arabia (69%) and Jordan (76%) are higher than average, but clearly have at least some active

competitors gaining measurable IP market share. Lebanon (65%) has a high percentage of satellite

Internet providers, each of which takes away potential market share from a strong incumbent.


Oman, Qatar, Yemen, Syria, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates all have more than 90% of their

domestic market on-net with a single domestic provider. Few realistic alternatives exist for

international IP transit, other than that mediated by the largest domestic provider.

As 2010 comes to a close, Bahraini providers are taking advantage of more diverse international

transit than ever before.

In March 2010, Saudi Telecom launched its Viva mobile service in Bahrain, utilizing dark fiber leased

from GCCIA. Backup transit was provided over Flag FALCON via the Bahrain landing station. Bahraini

providers Menatelecom, Kalaam, RTS, Etisalcom Bahrain, and GCCNGN/Rawabi quickly moved to acquire

international transit via STC, and today, STC has an estimated 21% of the Bahraini market on-net.

October 2010 saw a surge in Bahraini utilization of the Flag FALCON cable, with leading competitive

providers Menatelecom and Zain Bahrain both showing evidence of substantial Flag transit for the first

time. Flag’s on-net percentage of the domestic market has risen from 26% to 45% over the course of

the year, with Tata’s on-net percentage falling from 93% to 82%, and Emirates’ from 35% to 28%.

Bahraini providers still have fewer available choices for international transit than others in the region.

Bahraini providers still do not have access to the full array of international service providers that are

available in other countries at consortium-based cable landings. As 2010 closes, Bahraini providers

have four choices for international transit: Tata, Flag, Emirates, or STC. By contrast, the largest

providers in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt typically have access to six, eight, or even ten international

carriers, and use them all simultaneously for transit, letting them compete for every packet sent and

received. In Bahrain, Tata and GBI both plan new submarine cable landings in 2011, which should

increase the range of direct International transit available to domestic providers.

Additional terrestrial connectivity options for the region are likely to materialize in 2011.

The Gulf region has always lacked a terrestrial alternative to failure-prone submarine cables for

European and Asian connectivity. Turkish, Russian, Iraqi, Azeri, and even Iranian carriers are stepping

into the gap, hoping to provide attractive terrestrial routes for the region’s IP traffic. The JADI-link

(Jeddah, Amman, Damascus, Istanbul) is theoretically complete and likely to be the first online, although

it has not yet made a visible impact in the routing tables. Saudi-Iraqi and Jordanian-Iraqi routes are likely

to follow, connecting the region to transcontinental Russian transit.

The Bahrain Internet Exchange, once the default alternative provider in the Kingdom, is losing

market share as with the arrival of more international transit diversity.

LightSpeed Communications, who became a Flag customer in 2009, added the BIX as a backup provider

in March, thereby reducing the likelihood of suffering a single-carrier outage. Because the BIX resells a

50-50 mix of Tata and Emirates traffic, it represents a very reasonable diversification strategy for any

Bahraini company that uses a lot of Flag transit.


On the other hand, with the market entry of STC, and the expanded presence of Flag, other companies

may see opportunities to replace BIX transit with direct international capacity. Menatelecom dropped

BIX transit at the start of August 2010, having added Saudi Telecom as a third provider 60 days earlier.

Kalaam and RTS followed suit in October and November. Unless the BIX can reverse this trend, its

historical role as the Kingdom’s default alternative service provider may be in doubt, and national transit

diversity may suffer.

Batelco’s lack of multihomed customers artificially constrains their on-net share of the domestic

market, and potentially their growth.

Of all the incumbent providers in the region, only Batelco continues to have no autonomous system

customers downstream – that is, no customers that can have multiple service providers. Bahraini

companies whose primary current provider is Tata, or the BIX, or STC, would presumably welcome the

change to lower their risks by acquiring Batelco as a backup provider, given its Flag and Tata transit,

Emirates peering, and physical diversity. Without a multihomed customer strategy, however, there’s a

risk that Batelco’s relative on-net share of the Bahraini market will continue to shrink as the domestic

market grows and diversifies around it.

The April 2010 failure of SMW4 showed that major cable failures are survivable, if nations pursue a

strategy of significant international transit diversity.

Unplanned Internet infrastructure failures are the unintentional testing mechanism that reveals whether

a country’s Internet ecosystem is sufficiently diverse. In 2010, the shunt fault encountered by SMW4

off of Alexandria, Egypt was the primary event of this type. Across the region, providers shifted

European transit to alternative providers on alternative cables. In Bahrain, customers who were heavily

dependent on Tata saw packet delays to Europe increase by hundreds of milliseconds, as traffic re-

routed around the planet. The event was a reminder that international transit diversity is the best

insurance against regional outages.

The IPv6 Internet is growing very slowly in the region, despite the looming threat of IPv4 address

space exhaustion. A prolonged and potentially painful multi-year transition period is inevitable.

Today, only about 40 IPv6 networks from the Gulf region appear in the global routing table, and only a

handful of domestic and international providers offer any kind of IPv6 connectivity.

As IPv4 allocations are exhausted, telecommunications regulators throughout the region may rapidly

find themselves overseeing a lucrative (and increasingly desperate) market for IPv4 address space, in

which new market entrants can be shut out by existing providers for lack of adequate IPv4 addressing

resources. Affected parties should begin to consider whether a country’s existing IPv4 allocations

might constitute a finite national resource, like radio spectrum, that is potentially subject to regulatory

oversight.


Methodology and Interpretation

Renesys continually monitors the global Internet routing table, synthesizing second-by-second changes

in the advertised paths to every connected network on earth, and measuring round-trip latencies to

those networks from around the world. Years of consecutive continuous observations are then mined

to produce summaries of evolving interprovider relationships in each country, and each region of the

world.

This report focuses on two particular kinds of measurements: on-net market share estimates and route

selection percentages.

On-net market share is an estimate of the percentage of a given market that is, directly or indirectly, the

customer of a given provider. Renesys computes the provider’s customer base score (a proprietary

model designed for comparative provider rankings, that incorporates a contribution from each network

prefix originated or transited by any of the provider’s downstream customers). That customer base

score is then divided by the total customer base score for the market as a whole (all network prefixes

believed to geolocate there) to create the on-net percentage.

Route selection percentages incorporate additional information: the percentage of Renesys

observation points that believe that the given provider is the “best” (selected) route to a given prefix at

any moment. This yields an estimate of instantaneous share for any provider within any market, which

may fluctuate second by second as the customers in that market change their routing preferences

among the providers with whom they have transit contracts.

One can think of the on-net market size as a natural upper bound for the route selection percentage;

the on-net market share is the percentage of a market that the provider could provide transit to, if it

were always selected as the best route by all its customers.

Note that route selection percentages sum to 100%, while on-net percentages generally sum to greater

than 100%. To see why, consider a simplified scenario in which a country is served by two international

carriers, and every customer in the country has direct transit contracts with both of them. Each of the

two carriers would have 100% of the country on-net. But at any moment, all else being equal, they

would each be expected to have a route selection percentage of 50%.

Starting on page 53, on-net tables show the on-net percentage of each international and domestic

service provider within a given national market, as that percentage has evolved over a period of years.

As a reminder, these are upper bounds for route selection, and will often sum to more than 100%, in

situations where downstream customers have multiple provider choices.


This report contains three primary kinds of visual displays.

Market graphs show the primary domestic and international

providers for a country, along with their interconnection

weights. Domestic providers are light blue; international

providers are light red. Arrows indicate customer-provider

relationships, and the percentage numbers on each arrow

indicate the percentage of the national market that is

estimated to be “on net” in that relationship. In other words,

if that relationship were to disappear (because a cable was cut,

or because a contract were not renewed), the label indicates

the percentage of the national market that could potentially

be affected by routing instability or outage.

Transit shift plots present a histogram of a given provider’s

route selection percentages to each of their upstream transit

providers, summing to 100%. The thickness of colored bands

gives a visual indication of the importance of each provider in

supplying Internet transit to the autonomous system in question

over some lookback period (in this report, 2010).

Customer transit plots look at a provider’s downstream customers

instead, estimating the contribution each one makes to the

provider’s total national traffic . In this report, customer transit

plots are normalized by national market size, to give additional

information about the growth or decline of a given provider within

the domestic market, based on the sum of inputs from each of its

direct customers.

.


Country Summaries

The countries of the Middle East vary widely in their approach to Internet economics. Some, like the

Kingdom of Bahrain, show continuing trends towards increased competition and Internet transit

diversification. Others have been slower to diversify, leaving a single domestic incumbent in control of

market-dominant portions of the national Internet ecosystem. In all cases, geography is strongly

determinative of international transit diversity. Countries with access to multiple consortium-based

submarine cable landings have an abundance of international transit alternatives, which may or may not

be made available to a broad set of competing domestic providers.

The sections that follow provide capsule summaries of the leading domestic providers of each country in

the region, summarizing their interconnections with international providers graphically. Additional

plots illustrate the international transit available to each provider, and show how that transit blend has

changed throughout 2010.


Iraq

The smallest Internet economy in the region, and the 109th largest worldwide, is Iraq’s. The Internet

economy of Iraq is once again growing, with new investment evident and new connections to

neighboring countries appearing almost monthly. The US military’s portion of Iraq’s national Internet

continues to drop, as the domestic market expands. While most visible autonomous-system level

activity currently takes place in the northern provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan, one can also see evidence for

growth and interconnection in the Baghdad area.

Looking forward, new cable landings at Basra in 2011 will connect Iraqi providers more firmly to the

Gulf’s regional submarine cable network in the south, and new Turkish, Iranian, Azeri, and Russian

connectivity will provide attractive terrestrial paths to Europe and Asia in the north. These paths can

provide vital backup connectivity in the event of failures on the submarine cables that serve the Gulf,

and will link up with existing Iraqi fiber connectivity to Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Indeed, if the Iraqi central and provincial governments can address security concerns, and continue

reconstructing the nation’s fiberoptic backbone and metro networks, Iraq may emerge as a major

regional conduit for low-latency IP transit between the Gulf states and Europe. Iraq’s incumbent

operator, state-owned ITPC, has reaffirmed its stated policy of pursuing privatization and encouraging

the growth of a diverse set of domestic Internet transit providers.

Today, nearly all visible ASN-level Internet routing in Iraq takes place over terrestrial paths from

Kurdistan to its neighbors in the north.


Primary Iraqi transit providers include Newroz Telecommunications (AS21277), based in Suleimaniya,

which has 3 downstream ASN customers, 39 originated networks, and 18 transited networks. Newroz

receives transit from Turk Telekom (80%) and Global Crossing (20%). It has 40% of the country “on-net”

– that is, 40% of all Iraqi IP space receives Internet transit (at least partially) through Newroz.


Where Newroz looks west for transit, IQ networks (AS44217) looks east. With 4 downstream ASN

customers, 6 originated networks, and 19 transited, IQ Networks has 18% of the country on-net, and

now receives 100% of its Internet transit from Russian provider Rostelecom (AS12389), utilizing Iranian

connectivity through the Azeri Internet Exchange in Baku.


A third Iraqi provider, the Al-Sard Group (AS39216), utilizes a blend of Azeri transit (Delta Telecom) and

Iranian transit (DCI Iran) along the same physical routes. Several downstream autonomous systems,

including Goran Net, CellNet, and the American University at Suleimaniya, derive their transit from some

combination of these, while others still utilize VSAT connectivity.


Oman

Oman’s Internet ecosystem is slightly larger than Iraq’s, ranking 10th regionally and 103rd globally. Its

domestic transit diversity is substantially lower, however. OmanTel (AS8529) has 100% of the nation’s

IP space on-net, and transits a total of 106 networks, on behalf of 2 major downstream customers. Very

little evidence for fixed-line or mobile IP diversity is evident in the national transit graph.

The OmanTel NAP (AS28885) accounts for a third of the customer base, and Omani Qatari (AS50010) for

another two-thirds. Omani Qatari appeared in January 2010, and is transiting large amounts of IP space

on behalf of Nawras Mobile Broadband (the country’s 2nd mobile licensee).


On the other hand, with cable landings from FLAG Falcon and SMW3, Oman can easily draw upon

diverse international transit. OmanTel’s transit is spread across seven international providers.


Lebanon

Lebanon’s Internet ecosystem (ranked 100th globally) has historically suffered from a lack of

international consortium-based submarine cable landings, with connectivity only to Cyprus and Syria. It

still has higher-than-expected international transit diversity, largely because enterprises rely on satellite

connectivity from a large number of providers. At least 17 different Lebanese service providers have

direct international IP connectivity of one form or another.

The proposed landing in 2011 of the new IMEWE cable at Trablous will change the entire dynamics of

the Lebanese Internet marketplace. For the first time, a wide range of European and Asian carriers will

be available to Lebanese operators, and the impacts on transit pricing and carrier diversity are likely to

be profound.


For now, the largest provider, Liban Telecom (AS42020), has 68% of the nation’s IP space on-net. It

transits 363 IPv4 networks on behalf of 12 downstream ASN customers. Utilizing Cypriot connectivity,

its transit providers include Level3, AT&T, Flag, and PCCW.


Second-place domestic provider Ogero Telecom (AS42003) has no customers downstream, but

originates 45 IPv4 networks, representing 51% of the country’s IP base. It receives nearly all its transit

from the incumbent, as well as a very tiny amount directly from PCCW.


Syria

Ranked 97th globally, Syria’s Internet ecosystem is dominated by an incumbent provider, Syrian Telecom

(AS29386), with 99% of the national market on-net, and no non-incumbent ASNs downstream.

Transit is via submarine cable to Cyprus, and is largely provided by Deutsche Telekom. When the JADI-

link project is complete, substantial additional transit should become available through Turk Telekom via

terrestrial fiber. Turkish transit appears to have actually shrunk over the course of 2010, in favor of

Deutsche Telekom.


Qatar

The Qatari Internet ecosystem, like that of Oman, showcases a dominant incumbent with a broad set of

international providers, made possible by three fiber connections to the neighboring UAE. Qatar is the

93rd largest Internet ecosystem globally.


Q-Tel (AS8781) is the dominant Qatari provider, with 99% of the national IP space on-net. It serves 9

downstream ASN transit customers, and transits 210 networks on their behalf. Its diverse array of

transit providers includes Hurricane Electric, Tata, Flag, NTT, Level3, Stixlite Singapore, and AT&T.


The Qatar Foundation for Education, Science, and Community (AS29384) has become something of a

service provider in its own right, with one downstream ASN customer, 15 originated networks, and 12%

of the national IP space on-net. It has indirect international transit through Q-Tel, but also a direct

connection to Flag, and phased out a direct connection to Tata earlier this year.


Bahrain

Bahrain’s Internet ecosystem is the 92nd largest in the world, despite serving a population of less than

one million people. In the context of the other regional Internet ecosystems, Bahrain is notable for its

progress towards domestic competition in the IP marketplace, as the estimated on-net shares of the

incumbent and competitive providers have come roughly into balance.

The general availability of new international transit providers in the Bahrain market in 2010 (not only

Flag, but also Saudi Telecom in connection with the launch of its Viva mobile service) has created

significant change. Domestic transit relationships in 2010 have seen significant flux, as ISPs continue to

seek reliable, low-cost connectivity to international markets for their customers.


Long-time observers of the Bahrain transit market will note that Zain, Mena, and Etisalcom Bahrain are

now substantial consumers of Flag transit, in addition to Nuetel, Lightspeed, and Batelco. Flag’s

percentage on-net of the Bahraini domestic market now approaches 45% (up from the 26% share it has

held in recent years). Tata’s on-net share has dropped from 99% (Jan 2009) to 93% (Jan 2010) to just

82% today.

Batelco’s continuing lack of downstream ASNs has resulted in the steady erosion of the percentage of

the national Internet ecosystem that it can count among its customers. Today, Batelco (AS5416) retains

an estimated 26% of the country’s Internet ecosystem on-net, representing 143 IPv4 networks. Batelco

receives approximately 60% of its transit from Tata, and 40% from Flag; the percentage of Flag transit

has drifted gradually upward over the course of 2010 within a 10% band.


Competing provider Zain Bahrain (AS31452) has 28% of the national market on-net, and like Batelco,

splits its transit between Flag (45%) and Tata (55%). After achieving access to Flag transit in October,

Zain rapidly moved to phase out its Emirates transit and cut its reliance on Tata by approximately half.


Another competitor, Menatelecom (AS39015), has 30 originated networks (22% of Bahrain on-net), and

splits its transit between Saudi Telecom (40%), Flag (35%), and Tata (25%). Mena added transit through

Saudi Telecom in June, phased out its transit through the Bahrain Internet Exchange in August, and

gained access to Flag transit in October, finishing the year with a very different transit spectrum than it

started with.


LightSpeed Communications (AS39273) added transit through the Bahrain Internet Exchange in March,

restoring some measure of transit diversity (they had been single-homed to Flag since 2009).


The Bahrain Internet Exchange (AS35019) now has 12 ASNs downstream, and approximately 17% of the

nation on-net. The BIX continues to retain Tata and Emirates for transit, in the same 50-50 mix utilized

in recent years.

In 2010, the BIX had only one significant customer win: LightSpeed communications, returning to the BIX

in March after a long absence in order to obtain backup transit and restore dual-homed status.

Offsetting this gain were several key customer losses in the second half of the year, perhaps driven by

broader availability of FLAG and STC transit as competitive options. Menatelecom (AS39015) left in

August and is now triply-homed to Tata, Flag, and STC. Kalaam (AS35443) left in October, and RTS

(AS42931) left in November; both are now singly-homed to STC (a net loss of national transit diversity).


This plot captures the steady decline in total route selection percentage through the BIX over the last 4

years.

At its peak in early 2007, the BIX could expect to route traffic for nearly 50% of the national IP transit

market: everyone but the incumbent.

Since then, the BIX customer base has stayed relatively fixed, with only minor additions and

subtractions, and no participation by the incumbent. Meanwhile, the rest of the domestic market has

grown steadily. In the closing months of 2010, the BIX has lost customers to alternative providers as

access to international direct transit has improved. With 17% of the Kingdom on-net, route selection

percentages are now below 10% (with providers treating BIX transit as their backup route, and

preferring other, direct routes via STC, Tata, or Flag). If these trends continue, the BIX could easily be

reduced to single-digit route selection share by the end of 2011.

There is an implicit risk in such a scenario: if the so-called ‘single-homed’ autonomous systems, who buy

from a single provider, choose to replace the dual-homed BIX with a single international carrier, then

the Kingdom’s net transit diversity will decline, and more service-impacting Internet outages may result.


Viva (AS51375) entered the Bahrain mobile market as the Kingdom’s third mobile licensee. Owner

Saudi Telecom (AS41426) began offering Internet transit to Bahraini companies in June 2010, several

months thereafter.

As this plot shows, STC’s route selection percentage of the national market has grown steadily with each

passing month. At the close of 2010, just over 20% of the Bahrain IP transit market is estimated to

route through STC on any given day, despite having neither Batelco nor the BIX as customers.


Finally, Flag (AS15412) also picked up substantial new Bahrain market share at the end of 2010, growing

to route nearly 40% of the total transit market within a matter of weeks. Tata (AS6453) saw mirror-

image declines in their on-net and route-selection percentages, as direct STC and Flag transit became

more broadly available to Bahrain’s domestic providers.


Jordan

Jordan’s modern relationship with France Telecom continues to guide the development of its Internet

ecosystem (the 90th largest worldwide), with transit from Orange over the Flag FEA cable at Aqaba

representing the majority of the country’s Internet transit.

Incumbent Jordan Telecom (AS8697), which still has 75% of the national market on-net, serves 13

downstream ASN customers, transits 104 networks on their behalf, and originates 9 IPv4 blocks (plus

one IPv6 block) for itself. Besides France Telecom (60%), its transit providers include Level3 (15%),

Saudi Telecom (15%), and Tinet (5%).


Critically, Jordan Telecom controls the FLAG landing facility at Aqaba; a second FLAG landing facility, to

be managed by competitor Vtel, has been nearing completion for the last year and may improve

competing providers’ access to international IP bandwidth. When the JADI-Link project reaches fruition,

terrestrial connectivity through Syria to Turkey will likely add Turk Telekom (AS9121) as an additional

source of Jordanian transit to Europe.


XOL Jordan (AS42912) is a distant second-place competitor, with 14% of the country on-net (4 ASN

customers downstream, 6 originated IPv4 networks, 23 transited networks), and a single provider (Saudi

Telecom). Another competitor, Neu Telecom (AS47887) comes in just behind XOL, with 8% of the

country online (8 ASNs downstream and 43 networks). Neither competitor uses the incumbent for IP

connectivity, preferring instead to connect directly with international carriers (Saudi Telecom for XOL,

PCCW and TInet for Neu Group).


Kuwait

Kuwait’s Internet ecosystem is the 63rd largest globally; it is characterized by a fairly large set of

competing service providers, none of whom has a dominant share of the domestic market.


Kuwait Data Center Company (AS43852, with 34% of the domestic market on-net) has 3 ASNs

downstream, and 126 networks transited.


QualityNet (AS9155, with 24% of the domestic market on-net) has 11 ASNs downstream, 184 networks

originated, and 115 transited.


Other Kuwaiti providers with substantial market share include Gulfnet Kuwait (AS3225, 19% on-net),

Wataniya (AS29357, 18%), and KEMS (AS6412, 20%). These providers typically get their transit from

five or six international and regional providers, including Tata, Level3, PCCW, Emirates, and Q-Tel, and

from each other (creating a complex web of ad-hoc bilateral transit and peering arrangements that

substitute for a local Internet exchange).


Iran

A regional discussion of Internet transit would be incomplete without a look at Iran, the 50th largest

Internet ecosystem worldwide. The state-owned telecommunications company, DCI (AS12880) is the

dominant provider, with 89% of the national market on-net; they serve 76 domestic ASN customers and

transit more than 900 IPv4 networks.


Iranian international transit is diverse, with submarine cable connectivity providing the incumbent with

access to Telia, PCCW, Tinet (since March 2010), Singtel, Cable and Wireless (since August 2010), TI

Sparkle, Telecom Malaysia (since June 2010), and Flag. Terrestrial fiber connectivity in the north

provides additional geographic diversity, with significant transit from both Turk Telekom and (since

January 2010) Russia’s Rostelecom. Indeed, today Rostelecom has become the most important

international carrier serving the Iranian market.


Beyond DCI, international transit for Iran is scarce but growing. Iranet/IPM (AS6736, with 18% of the

Iranian market on-net) is a distant second, with 19 ASNs downstream and 248 networks transited.

Iranet receives international transit from Azeri Delta Telecom (60%) and Telia (40%).


Egypt

Egypt’s Internet ecosystem (ranked 47th globally) is similar in size to Iran’s, but exhibits significantly

higher domestic diversity.


Etisalat Misr (AS36992, with 37% of the Egyptian market on-net) has 14 ASN customers, 648 networks

originated, and 252 transited. International transit is balanced between TI Sparkle and Tata, with minor

contributions from PCCW and Emirates.


The incumbent, Telecom Egypt (AS8452, 31% on-net) has 30 ASN customers, originates 1114 IPv4

networks (plus 1 IPv6), and transits 552 more. International transit is broadly distributed across TI

Sparkle (40%), Level3 (15%), Cogent (15%), NTT (15%), Tata (5%), TM Net (5%), and Flag (5%). This

transit blend has been largely stable in recent years, except during times of crisis (such as the April 2010

SMW4 shunt fault incident, clearly visible in the transit shift plot below).


Saudi Arabia

The 44th largest Internet ecosystem in the world belongs to Saudi Arabia.


Incumbent Saudi Telecom (AS39386) maintains a dominant share of 68% of the domestic market. STC

originates 10 IPv4 networks and 1 IPv6 network, transits 703 networks on behalf of 37 ASN customers,

and maintains a very broad set of 13 international service providers (see transit shift plot below).


Mobily/Bayanat (AS35819), STC’s primary domestic competitor, is a distant second, with only 18% of

the domestic market on-net. Mobily provides service to 17 downstream ASNs, originates 206 IPv4 and

2 IPv6 networks, and transits 159 networks. Its providers include France Telecom (25%), Tata (25%),

Global Crossing (20%, new since May 2010), Level3 (20%), and Emirates (10%).


Etihad Atheeb (AS47794) comes in an even more distant third in the Saudi market, with nobody

downstream and 44 self-originated networks, totaling 6% of the domestic market on-net.


As an example of a smaller Saudi provider, Zain KSA (AS43766) originates four Saudi prefixes, splitting its

transit between STC and ITC.


United Arab Emirates

The UAE has, by some measures, the largest regional Internet ecosystem (ranked 40th globally), though

certainly not the most diverse. The Internet transit market consists of a duopoly between two largely

state-owned incumbents, Etisalat and Du.


Emirates Telecom (“Etisalat,” AS8966) is the dominant half of the duopoly, with 98% of the domestic

Internet transit market on-net. Region-wide, they serve 19 ASN customers downstream, and over 840

transited networks. Domestically, there are only a few ASNs downstream, including the TRA, competing

incumbent Du, Emirates Internet (AS5384, operated by Etisalat), and the ISC’s Dubai instance of the F-

root server.

International transit diversity, on the other hand, is very strong, thanks to the landings of every major

regional and consortium-based submarine cable. In 2010, Level3’s contribution grew most strongly,

after a brief outage during the April shunt fault.


Emirates Integrated Telecom (“Du”, AS15802) provides some internal competition to Etisalat, and has

28% of the domestic market on-net. They originate 127 IPv4 prefixes, and offer Internet transit service

to the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (AS5613), but have no other autonomous system customers

downstream.

Like Etisalat, Du enjoys significant international transit diversity, and has steadily increased the

proportion of its routes selected through direct international providers, while reducing its visibility

through its competitor. Flag has been the largest beneficiary of this process in 2010, and now appears

in nearly 60% of selected routes for Du, with newcomer Level3 picking up another 10% in the last

months of 2010.


Regional Trends in Internet Transit Markets

To begin to summarize some of the trends exposed in these brief country summaries, it’s helpful to look

at the nation-scale transit picture from two different perspectives:

international provider strength (measuring diversity available at the cable landing), and

domestic provider strength (measuring diversity available in the local market).

The following sections contain tables of on-net customer percentages to support both perspectives on

the data, looking back over the period 2007-2010.


Market Dominance of International Providers: “On-Net” Percentages Looking first at international carrier dominance in each market, the “on net” percentages show how

much of each national Internet Ecosystem is a customer of each provider over time. A carrier’s on-net

percentage can rise if it is successful in selling to more customers. The most common cause of a

reduction of on-net percentage is the entry of new carriers into the market, leading existing customers

to fail to renew existing contracts. However, on-net percentages can also fall even when existing

customers are satisfied, if the domestic market is growing quickly and new growth accrues to other

competitors. Note that percentages will sum to more than 100% in markets where customers have

multiple service providers – on-net percentages are upper bounds for route selection percentages.

The following tables list selected on-net percentages for the largest international providers serving each

national market, from 2007 through 2010 . “On-net” is computed by dividing a given provider’s

estimated domestic customer base by the total size of the national market for IP transit. A “domestic

provider” is one that originates no more than 30% of its total customer base outside the country.

CC ASN NSP Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Nov-10

AE 3356 Level 3 59% 50% 30% 33% 40% 46% 49% 54%

AE 3549 Global Crossing 51% 48% 18% 41% 24% 20% 29% 43%

AE 2914 NTT 56% 46% 17% 13% 29% 24% 27% 41%

AE 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 35% 36% 27% 25% 40% 29% 40% 39%

AE 1239 Sprint 69% 66% 45% 33% 48% 51% 45% 37%

AE 15412 Flag Telecom 56% 46% 18% 16% 16% 15% 18% 28%

AE 6453 Tata 24% 50% 20% 26% 49% 47% 23% 15%

AE 7473 SingTel 3% 28% 31% 34% 33% 43% 25% 8%

AE 3491 PCCW 21% 41% 17% 26% 3% 2% 2% 1%

BH 6453 Tata 93% 95% 92% 99% 97% 93% 93% 82%

BH 1239 Sprint 46% 45% 58% 26% 51% 60% 61% 72%

BH 3356 Level 3 44% 47% 58% 26% 51% 60% 24% 59%

BH 2914 NTT 43% 47% 30% 56% 35% 60% 55% 48%

BH 15412 Flag Telecom 42% 46% 32% 26% 22% 26% 20% 45%

BH 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 27% 35% 35% 42% 42%

BH 8966 Emirates 27% 31% 35% 35% 38% 28%

BH 3549 Global Crossing 35% 35% 42% 28%

EG 1239 Sprint 90% 91% 92% 60% 73% 69% 75% 77%

EG 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 25% 44% 74% 43% 36% 45% 59% 59%

EG 3356 Level 3 68% 58% 53% 62% 77% 55% 46% 40%

EG 6453 Tata 1% 28% 19% 26% 30% 32%

EG 2914 NTT 68% 58% 49% 45% 51% 32% 22% 28%

EG 15412 Flag Telecom 68% 58% 49% 55% 41% 34% 25% 23%

EG 3549 Global Crossing 1% 10% 15% 12% 13% 8%

EG 701 Verizon Business 37% 12% 6% 8% 10% 7% 3% 3%



IQ 3549 Global Crossing 20% 29% 55% 11% 7% 57% 72% 71%

IQ 3356 Level 3 18% 17% 26% 60% 91% 66% 54% 55%

IQ 1299 Telia 3% 9% 13% 35% 34% 41% 47% 45%

IQ 9121 Turk Telekom 8% 17% 21% 29% 40%

IQ 3491 PCCW 1% 20% 25%

IQ 701 Verizon Business 11% 16% 19% 37% 24% 6% 11% 11%

IQ 702 Verizon Business EMEA 9% 8% 19% 28% 24% 6% 11% 11%

IQ 1239 Sprint 9% 29% 49% 36% 46% 57% 35% 8%

IQ 209 Qwest 77% 61% 9% 7%

IQ 22351 Intelsat 9% 8% 9% 18% 13% 6% 7% 7%

IQ 6453 Tata 9% 8% 16% 24% 35% 21% 16% 3%

IQ 2914 NTT 2% 3% 16% 17% 30% 43% 9% 2%

IQ 174 Cogent 8% 6% 19% 7% 15% 8%

IR 1299 Telia 4% 5% 2% 77% 93% 97% 94% 91%

IR 3549 Global Crossing 79% 38% 26% 64% 80% 72% 72% 61%

IR 3356 Level 3 75% 85% 82% 90% 88% 76% 66% 51%

IR 3491 PCCW 50% 35% 26% 33% 39% 36% 55% 51%

IR 3257 Tinet 2% 4% 31% 32% 65% 44%

IR 3561 Savvis 52% 70% 71% 59% 76% 10% 31% 31%

IR 9121 Turk Telekom 73% 69% 41% 89% 57% 56% 31% 29%

IR 12389 Rostelecom 10% 33% 15%

IR 2914 NTT 84% 88% 60% 47% 39% 20% 3% 14%

IR 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 82% 89% 62% 80% 56% 41% 25% 8%

IR 1239 Sprint 91% 89% 69% 87% 70% 48% 27% 8%

IR 7473 SingTel 43% 69% 71% 61% 76% 50% 41% 6%

IR 15412 Flag Telecom 63% 66% 37% 58% 39% 12% 3%

JO 5511 France Telecom - Orange 97% 100% 98% 100% 88% 85% 77% 75%

JO 3356 Level 3 1% 27% 28% 29% 37%

JO 39386 Saudi Telecom 1% 5% 36% 31%

JO 7018 AT&T 5% 35% 27%

JO 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 3% 9% 12% 30% 26%

JO 1239 Sprint 94% 49% 30% 30% 24% 23%

JO 3561 Savvis 13% 5% 5% 22%

JO 6453 Tata 14% 21% 49% 21% 24% 22% 20%

JO 3257 Tinet 49% 21% 30% 21% 19%

JO 8452 Telecom Egypt 1% 1% 1% 1% 10% 8% 9% 10%


JO 3549 Global Crossing 9% 12% 22% 5%

JO 3491 PCCW 13% 8% 7% 8% 4%


KW 6453 Tata 59% 59% 60% 75% 74% 78% 72% 76%

KW 1239 Sprint 53% 41% 49% 36% 51% 57% 44% 54%

KW 3549 Global Crossing 48% 56% 3% 25% 51% 64% 60% 48%

KW 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 39% 30% 44% 10% 41% 56% 49% 41%

KW 8966 Emirates 38% 32% 47% 60% 42% 57% 51% 39%

KW 3356 Level 3 47% 39% 38% 46% 49% 57% 40% 35%

KW 2914 NTT 43% 38% 36% 31% 41% 59% 49% 25%

KW 15412 Flag Telecom 43% 38% 37% 37% 9% 14% 11% 21%

KW 3491 PCCW 15% 55% 1% 11% 8% 14% 18% 16%

KW 7473 SingTel 17% 34% 33% 36% 19% 5%

KW 1273 Cable and Wireless 38% 2%

KW 3561 Savvis 56% 31% 29% 36% 2%

KW 701 Verizon Business 51% 30% 7% 1% 1%

LB 3356 Level 3 63% 78% 76% 66% 71% 77% 88% 86%

LB 7018 AT&T 36% 51% 52% 52% 48%

LB 1299 Telia 36% 40% 57% 44% 31% 28% 32% 28%

LB 3549 Global Crossing 32% 68% 64% 52% 28% 31% 31% 23%

LB 6453 Tata 6% 1% 2% 1% 17% 14%

LB 3491 PCCW 32% 47% 35% 27% 11% 9% 9% 10%

LB 1239 Sprint 59% 64% 55% 23% 32% 11% 11% 6%

LB 2914 NTT 48% 46% 35% 1% 11% 7% 6% 6%

LB 30721 SatGate 8% 11% 38% 40% 21% 22% 20% 5%

LB 8764 TEO LT AB 8% 11% 38% 37% 21% 22% 20% 5%

LB 12989 Eweka Internet 3% 6% 1% 17% 20% 5%

LB 15412 Flag Telecom 48% 59% 35% 13% 9% 6% 5% 5%

LB 174 Cogent 1% 3% 8% 1% 17% 17% 18% 4%

LB 3257 Tinet 4% 19% 17% 19% 3% 3% 1%

OM 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 98% 100% 100% 25% 68% 83% 99% 100%

OM 3491 PCCW 98% 100% 100% 100% 88% 93% 96% 97%

OM 3549 Global Crossing 98% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100% 96% 97%

OM 1239 Sprint 98% 100% 100% 60% 55% 96% 97%

OM 3257 Tinet 13% 94% 95%

OM 286 KPN 90% 86% 87%

OM 3356 Level 3 56% 91% 76% 90% 90% 85%

OM 7473 SingTel 100% 68% 85% 76% 70% 75% 82%

OM 9121 Turk Telekom 1% 62%

OM 4755 Tata 77% 86%



QA 8781 Qatar Telecom (Q-Tel) 83% 83% 85% 75% 98% 99% 99% 99%

QA 6453 Tata 85% 95% 93% 98% 96% 92% 86% 98%

QA 3356 Level 3 66% 67% 55% 82% 65% 91% 85% 92%

QA 6939 Hurricane Electric 18% 51% 77% 87%

QA 1239 Sprint 66% 77% 41% 79% 46% 91% 70% 81%

QA 15412 Flag Telecom 66% 63% 41% 79% 50% 85% 69% 80%

QA 2914 NTT 66% 63% 41% 79% 45% 82% 23% 80%

QA 7018 AT&T 58% 56% 68% 52% 55%

QA 7473 SingTel 72% 52% 76% 50% 68% 57%

SA 1239 Sprint 90% 93% 90% 84% 78% 80% 83% 81%

SA 3356 Level 3 52% 23% 22% 46% 64% 78% 78% 79%

SA 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 81% 89% 82% 78% 80% 77% 81% 78%

SA 6453 Tata 62% 80% 82% 78% 68% 76% 72% 76%

SA 7018 AT&T 64% 77% 74% 51% 57% 51% 53%

SA 3561 Savvis 36% 8% 15% 10% 32% 22% 60% 53%

SA 3549 Global Crossing 40% 13% 16% 85% 71% 71% 74% 48%

SA 701 Verizon Business 89% 62% 52% 6% 46% 49% 26% 17%

SY 6762 Telecom Italia Sparkle 42% 97% 87% 57% 69% 28% 4%

SY 1299 Telia 22% 14% 65% 59%

SY 1239 Sprint 42% 97% 87% 15% 69% 22% 57% 65%

SY 3491 PCCW 53% 63% 54% 36% 37% 41% 44% 30%

SY 3549 Global Crossing 53% 63% 52% 36% 44% 41% 52% 25%

SY 3320 Deutsche Telekom 57% 60%

SY 9121 Turk Telekom 54% 50% 46% 22% 14% 65% 59%

SY 3356 Level 3 22% 7% 9% 51%

SY 6453 Tata 4% 3% 58% 84% 40% 38% 13% 16%


Market Dominance of Domestic Providers: “On-Net” Percentages

Similarly, one can compute the on-net percentages for the largest domestic providers in each national

market. In the tables of domestic provider on-net numbers on the following pages, note that Iran,

Syria, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman all have a single largest domestic carrier with more than 75% of the

domestic market on-net, potentially signaling an IP transit market in which competition is limited.

Jordan, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia are intermediate cases, whose incumbent provider still retains

between 50% and 75% of the national market on-net. In each case, the emergence of a strong

competitor (typically a mobile provider) is driving demand for international transit on better terms. As

rival solutions to the international transit puzzle emerge, and domestic providers reach out to

international carriers directly, the incumbent’s share of domestic on-net market gradually declines.

Kuwait, Egypt, Iraq, and Bahrain all have a largest domestic provider with less than 50% of the market

on-net, indicating that no single provider controls access to a simple majority of IP space.

Here, on-net percentages may sum to more than 100% if one of these domestic providers sells to one of

the other listed domestic providers, as they each get credit for their overlapping customer bases.



AE 8966 Etisalat 90% 92% 93% 97% 97% 98% 98% 98% AE 5384 Emirates Internet

(Etisalat) 71% 77% 82% 78% 79% 80% 71% 70%

AE 15802 Emirates Integrated Telecom (Du)

26% 21% 16% 20% 19% 19% 28% 28%

BH 5416 BATELCO-BH 41% 45% 55% 40% 34% 31% 27% 26% BH 31452 Zain Bahrain 4% 4% 7% 24% 27% 27% 33% 28%

BH 39015 Menatelecom 2% 2% 1% 5% 10% 15% 17% 22%

BH 35019 Bahrain Internet Exchange

51% 45% 31% 32% 36% 26% 21% 17%

EG 8452 TE 34% 55% 80% 82% 51% 39% 34% 31% EG 36992 ETISALAT MISR -- -- -- -- 18% 25% 34% 37%

EG 24863 Link Egypt (Link.NET) 25% 19% 19% 21% 31% 33% 27% 25%

EG 24835 RAYA Telecom 24% 29% 27% 24% 20% 14% 16% 17%

EG 15475 Nile Online 19% 14% 10% 13% 12% 14% 7% 9%

IQ 21277 Newroz Telecom Ltd. -- -- -- 8% 17% 21% 26% 40% IQ ---

US DoD 77% 72% 49% -- -- 29% 20% 19%

IQ 44217 IQ Networks -- -- -- -- -- -- 12% 18%

IQ 49571 CellNet ltd ASN block -- -- -- -- -- 10% 10% 10%

IQ 50597 ScopeSky Communication

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 8%

IR 12880 DCI 90% 91% 94% 98% 94% 92% 90% 89%

IR 6736 IRANET/IPM 3% 2% 4% 5% 9% 11% 14% 18%

IR 21341 Soroush Rasaneh Institute

16% 13% 14% 15% 16% 13% 10% 8%

IR 34513 TSTonline 11% 9% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2%

JO 8697 Jordan Telecom 97% 100%

100%

100%

88% 85% 77% 75%

JO 8376 Jordan Data Communications

34% 38% 36% 46% 41% 44% 37% 37%

JO 42912 XOL Jo -- -- -- -- 1% 5% 11% 14%

JO 9038 Batelco Jordan 9% 16% 15% 12% 11% 8% 8% 8%


Percentage of domestic market on-net with leading providers. Dominant incumbents typically have 75%+ on-net. Percentages that add to more than 100% signify multihoming (consumer networks on-net with multiple providers).


KW 43852 Kuwait Data Center co. -- -- 27% 23% 30% 33% 34% KW 9155 QualityNet 27% 26% 28% 28% 20% 25% 26% 24%

KW 21050 Fast W.L.L. 24% 19% 17% 20% 20% 19% 19% 20%

KW 6412 KEMS 22% 24% 26% 22% 26% 23% 21% 20%

KW 3225 Gulfnet Kuwait 18% 24% 20% 13% 17% 16% 15% 19%

KW 29357 WATANIYA TELECOM 1% 5% 5% 9% 9% 9% 18% 18%

LB 42020 Liban Telecom -- 40% 30% 45% 66% 64% 63% 68% LB 42003 OGERO Telecom 18% 26% 21% 23% 42% 42% 46% 51%

LB 20535 InSat GmbH -- 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 6% 18%

LB 39010 TerraNet sal 25% 19% 20% 17% 17% 18% 16% 14%

LB 8261 Archway -- -- -- -- -- 12% 14% 13%

LB 24634 Cyberia 14% 18% 14% 12% 13% 13% 11% 10%

OM 8529 OmanTel 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% OM 28885 OmanTel NAP 98% 100% 91% 100% 100% 100% 86% 87%

OM 50010 Omani Qatari -- -- -- -- -- -- 13% 13%

QA 8781 Qatar Telecom 83% 83% 85% 75% 98% 99% 99% 99% QA 29384 Qatar Foundation 17% 16% 14% 15% 15% 15% 12% 12%

SA 39386 Saudi Telecom Company

70% 80% 79% 75% 65% 67% 72% 68%

SA 25019 SaudiNet 17% 17% 24% 26% 31% 31% 48% 49%

SA 35819 Mobily/Bayanat 2% 2% 2% 6% 18% 15% 12% 18%

SA 34400 Ettihad Etisalat 4% 8% 7% 10% 11% 8% 11%

SY 29386 Syrian Telecom 54% 63% 64% 52% 66% 84% 99% 99%

SY 24814 SCS 42% 34% 32% 44% 33% 27% 28% 28%

Percentage of domestic market on-net with leading providers (continued). Percentages that add to more than 100% signify multihoming (consumer networks on-net with multiple providers).


Top wholesale Internet providers in the Middle East region, as a single unified ranking.

These providers supply IP transit to the autonomous systems in each national market that originate the largest share of Middle Eastern IP space.

Source: Renesys Market Intelligence, Nov. 2010. http://www.renesys.com/products_services/market_intel/

http://www.renesys.com/products_services/market_intel/


Key Internet Outage Event of 2010

By far, the most significant regional

Internet outage event of 2010 was the

April 13th shunt fault of SMW4 off

Alexandria, Egypt. During the repair

window, which lasted several days in the

last week of April, customers relying on

this cable for transit encountered

problems, as traffic to Europe and the

US was re-routed through Asia, resulting

in congestion and higher latencies.

This effect is clearly visible in traceroute

timeseries from various observation

points to Bahrain through the month of

April, with a short spike in measured

latencies on the day of the shunt fault, a

modest rise due to congestion in

subsequent weeks, and a more

significant increase (by a factor of 3x or

more) during the multiday repair

window itself.


Looking at traceroute round trip

latencies from London to Bahrain

broken out by the last international

carrier, one can see clear differences in

customer experience, depending on

whether the paths traversed Tata,

FLAG, or Emirates.

Because of this provider-dependent

behavior, Bahraini customers of

Batelco suffered little disruption

during the event (Batelco utilizes

diverse FLAG and Tata transit, and

peers with Emirates).


Other countries in the region generally experienced

similar latency increases if they were reliant on

SMW4 transit for around-the-world routing to the

destinations in question.

Lebanon experienced no measurable change in

latency from any site, since their connectivity (via

Cyprus) was unaffected.

Jordanian customers experienced some degree of

latency increase if they were exposed to SMW4

routing via Saudi terrestrial transit, but no increase if

they relied on FLAG FEA.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman experienced

increased latencies that were similar to those

experienced by Bahraini consumers, with the least

severe impact in Qatar, and the most severe in

Kuwait.


Snapshot of the IPv6 Regional Internet

Country ASN IPv6 Prefix Transit Via… Originator

AE AS47862 2001:8f8::/44 AS11537 (Internet2) ANKABUT (U.A.E Research Edu Network)

AE AS51182 2a02:1718::/32 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) and AS47862 (ANKABUT)

United Arab Emirates University

EG AS24863 2001:4300:2001::/48 AS33789 (MCIT) Link Egypt (Link.NET)

EG AS24863 2001:4300:2002::/48 AS33789 (MCIT) Link Egypt (Link.NET)

EG … 19 consecutive blocks..

EG AS24863 2001:4300:2019:/48 AS33789 (MCIT) Link Egypt (Link.NET)

EG AS2561 2001:4300:2000::/43 AS24863 (Link Egypt) Egyptian Universities Network

EG AS2561 2001:4300:2020::/48 AS24863 (Link Egypt) Egyptian Universities Network

EG AS31065 2001:4300:5503::/48 AS8452 (Telecom Egypt) Ministry of Communications and IT

EG AS8452 2001:4388::/32 AS6762 (Telecom Italia) Telecom Egypt

JO AS8697 2a00:18d8::/32 AS551 (France Telecom) Jordan Telecom

JO AS8934 2a02:9c0::/32 AS47887 (NEU), via AS3257 (Tinet)

National Information Technology Center

LB AS41833 2a02:f50::/32 AS41589 (Sidus) Moscanet (WISE)

OM AS8529 2001:1670::/32 AS286 (KPN) OmanTel

QA AS8781 2001:1a10:300::/40 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) Q-Tel

QA AS8781 2001:1a10::/32 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) Q-Tel

QA AS8781 2001:1a10:3999::/48 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) Q-Tel

SA AS29684 2a00:1560::/32 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) and AS35819 (Mobily)

Nournet

SA AS30857 2001:67c:130::/48 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) and AS8895 (KACST)

Communications and IT Commission (CITC)

SA AS31416 2a00:18f8::/32 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) Applied Technologies Co

SA AS35819 2a02:9b0::/32 AS3356 (Level3) Mobily/Bayanat

SA AS35819 2a02:ce0::/32 AS3356 (Level3) Mobily/Bayanat

SA AS39386 2001:16a0::/32 AS174 (Cogent) and AS6762 (Telecom Italia)

Saudi Telecom Company

SA AS41176 2a02:d70::/32 AS6939 (Hurricane Electric) Sahara Net

SA AS8895 2001:1490::/32 AS5400 (BT), AS6453 (Tata), and AS174 (Cogent)

KACST/ISU Riyadh

IPv6 routes currently seen from regional providers (Nov 2010).


IPv6 Trends by Country The table on the previous page summarizes the origination and routing of the region’s still-modest

contribution to the global IPv6 routing table – about 40 networks in all, out of a global table of about

3,500 IPv6 routes.

Egypt has the most extensive IPv6 Internet ecosystem, representing about half of the total regional

routes. Telecom Egypt ultimately transits all Egyptian IPv6 transit, by way of Telecom Italia.

Jordan’s IPv6 Internet follows similar lines of division as its IPv4 Internet, with one block advertised by

the incumbent through France Telecom, and the other advertised by NITC, through NEU, using TINet for

international transit.

The UAE connects to the IPv6 Internet through the Internet2 research project, and through Hurricane

Electric. Lebanon’s sole IPv6 allocation, appropriately enough, transits a German satellite provider;

Oman’s transits KPN, and Qatar’s 5 networks transit Hurricane Electric.

Saudi Arabia’s IPv6 Internet is interesting because of its international diversity. In addition to tunnels

provided by Hurricane Electric, Saudi providers have succeeded in establishing IPv6 connectivity with

Level3, Tata, Cogent, and Telecom Italia. This level of transit diversity, in the absence (so far) of

significant amounts of traffic, suggests that IPv6 growth is an important strategic goal for the Kingdom.

While it does not yet appear that any IPv6 networks are being originated by Kuwaiti or Bahraini

providers, it should be noted that the IPv6 routing table is still in its infancy. Total worldwide traffic

volumes for IPv6 are, as of yet, unmeasurably small, compared to the existing IPv4 Internet.

The Future of the IPv6+IPv4 Dual Internet A lack of IPv6-only content has contributed to a chicken-and-egg problem for service providers

worldwide: service providers are reluctant to invest in IPv6 absent clear demand from users, users have

no demand for IPv6 because there’s no content to view, and content providers are not eager to invest in

IPv6 services because there’s no audience.

Despite the failure of IPv6 to thrive, the IPv4 Internet is shortly going to become a somewhat more

crowded place to do business. As IPv4 address space becomes exhausted, regional providers will find

themselves having to use existing allocations of that address space more efficiently. They should plan

for a transition period lasting many years, in which large providers with large, mostly unused IPv4

allocations will find themselves in control of a valuable (and monetizable) asset.

Telecommunications regulators throughout the region may rapidly find themselves overseeing a

lucrative (and increasingly desperate) market for IPv4 address space, in which new market entrants can

be shut out by existing providers for lack of adequate IPv4 addressing resources. Affected parties

should begin to consider whether a country’s existing IPv4 allocations might constitute a finite national

resource, like radio spectrum, that is potentially subject to regulatory oversight.


Appendix A: Routing Terminology

Internet routing has developed its own terminology over time, which may not be familiar to the

nonexpert. This section provides context for some of the terms used in this report.

Prefix (or “network”): a sequence of IP addresses that an enterprise may use to identify machines that

it attaches to the Internet (computers, routers, etc.)

• Example: 77.92.160.0/19, which is a contiguous block of 8 million IP addresses belonging to

Rawabi Telecommunications and Software.

Border Gateway Protocol (BGP): the software protocol used to establish Internet connections between

different organizations.

Autonomous System: An organization that has applied for an Autonomous System Number (ASN), in

order to be allowed to advertise its own prefixes in the global routing table.

• Example: Batelco (ASN 5416), or the BIX (ASN 35019).

Border Router: networking equipment deployed at the edge of an organization's network, in order to

establish connections to other organizations by exchanging BGP messages with them.

Advertise (or “Announce”) a Prefix: An organization that wants other people to be able to reach its

prefixes must announce them to its transit providers and peers. It does this by configuring its border

routers to send BGP messages describing networks it knows how to reach, and listen for BGP messages

that announce other people's networks.

Path to a prefix, ASPath: each BGP announcement contains an autonomous system path: a sequence of

one or more autonomous systems who passed on the announcement, representing the “best path” to

the announced prefix.

• Example: a BGP announcement containing the ASPath “7473 8966 35019 39273 30882”

indicates that the best path to the prefix goes from Singtel (AS7473), to Emirates Telecom

(AS8966), to the Bahrain Internet Exchange (AS35019), to Lightspeed Telecom (AS39273), and

finally on to Benefit Company (AS30882), in that order.

“Having a Route”: when a router hears another router announce a path to a prefix, it enters it into its

routing table, and is then said to “have a route” to that prefix. If the new route is an improvement over

its existing route, it will re-announce that improved route to all of its other neighbors. Amazingly, a new

or improved route to any prefix generally propagates to all of the routers worldwide through re-

announcement within 15 seconds.


Transit, Transit Provider: When an autonomous system signs a contract to carry another enterprise's

traffic to and from the global Internet, it is serving as a Transit Provider (i.e., “selling transit” to the other

party).

• Example: FLAG (AS15412) sells transit to Batelco.

Singlehomed, Multihomed: if an autonomous system has only one transit provider, they are said to be

singlehomed. If they have more than one transit provider, they are multihomed. Multihoming

significantly reduces the risk of having Internet instability and outages, because if one provider has a

problem, traffic can transparently fail over to the other provider.

• Example: LightSpeed is multihomed to FLAG (AS15412) and to the BIX (AS35019).

Reachable, Unreachable (or “Outaged'): If a router has a route to a given prefix, that prefix is Reachable

from its perspective; if it no longer has a route, the prefix is Unreachable. When a network prefix

becomes unreachable (that is, it is no longer being announced to any transit provider), it is no longer

connected to the Internet.

Instability: When the routes to a prefix change very quickly (often because a physical link is very

congested, or “flapping” in and out of service), the prefix is said to be unstable. A route to it may exist,

but traffic may not be flowing smoothly because link quality is poor.

“On Net”: a given network is said to be on-net with a given provider if they receive Internet transit

from that provider, directly or indirectly. Your customers, your customers’ customers, and so forth are

all said to be on-net with you.

“On Net Percentage”: the percentage of a given market (set of prefixes) that are on net with a given

provider. ONP serves as a rough measurement of market penetration or leverage, although the

existence of a high or low on-net percentage is not sufficient to conclude anything specific about the

economics or politics of the Internet ecosystem or the provider’s role in it.

Global Routing Table: the ideal routing table consisting of all the known “best paths” to all of the

prefixes on earth, from all of the border routers on earth. Renesys builds an approximation of this ideal

global picture by connecting to hundreds of organizations' border routers and synthesizing a continuous

map of their routes at one-second granularity.


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