Midwest Ozone Group Discussion on Good Neighbor SIP’s

Rob Kaleel Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium October 24, 2014

Background ◦ Model: CAMx V6.10 ◦ Modeling Period: June 17 to Sept 26 ◦ Meteorology: EPA 2011 (version II) ◦ Emissions: EPA 2011 & 2018 (version I) Canada and Mexico emissions from 2008 NEI

EPA 2018: IPM, Tier 3 NPRM (not MOVES2014), State/Federal On-the-books

Scenarios ◦ 2018 Attainment Test IPM (CAIR)

ERTAC (version 2.2) - On-the-Books

Model Sensitivity - 0.10 lb/mmbtu “emissions cap” for EGU’s w/ SCR’s

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

2002 2005 2008 2011 2018

NONROAD

NONEGU

Highway

EGU

Area

NOx

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

2002 2005 2008 2011 2018

VOC SO2

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

2002 2005 2008 2011 2018

Emission Trends and Projections

2002-2011 emissions from NEI; 2018 emissions from EPA Modeling Platform

ERTAC IPM

Starting point: Base Year CEM data by unit

Future year growth rate by region and fuel type

Future unit utilization based on historic (base year) activity

• Future emission rate based on historic (base year) emission rate (absent new controls or new emission limits)

Starting point: Base Year CEM data by unit

Future year growth rate based on generation nationally; regional growth and fuel use based on cost model

Future unit utilization based on cost model

Future emission rate projected based on control type and fuel (actual and assumed)

ERTAC EPA (IPM)

75 ppb O3 threshold

75 ppb O3 threshold

IPM ERTAC2.2

75 ppb O3 threshold

75 ppb O3 threshold

IPM ERTAC2.2

75 ppb O3 threshold

75 ppb O3 threshold

IPM ERTAC2.2

SCR’s Exceeding 0.10 lb/mmbtu – ERTAC 2.2 (2011 base projected to 2018)

0

0.025

0.05

0.075

0.1

0.125

0.15

0.175

0.2

0.225

0.25

0.275

0.3

0.325

0.35

0.375

0.4

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

State A - SCR Fleet Composite - Summer Daily

Operations - 2011-2014 May- Sept 2011-2013, May-June 2014

NOx (tons) Tons @ 0.075 NOx Rate

Daily Tons NOx

Daily Tons NOx

Lbs NOx /mmbtu

0

0.025

0.05

0.075

0.1

0.125

0.15

0.175

0.2

0.225

0.25

0.275

0.3

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

State B - SCR Fleet Composite - Summer Daily Operations -

2011-2014

May- Sept 2011-2013, May-June 2014

NOx (tons) Tons @ 0.075 NOx Rate Daily Tons NOx

Lbs NOx /mmbtu

Monitor IPM ERTAC2.2 ERTAC 2.2 SCR @0.10

Harford (Edgewood), MD 81.3 82.3 82

Babylon, NY 78.9 78.9 78.7

Westport, CT 78.5 78.6 78.5

Philadelphia, PA 77.3 77.2 76.9

Clarksboro, NJ 76.9 77 76.7

Sheboygan, WI 77.4 77.1 77

Louisville, KY 76 76.3 75.9

Cincinnati (Hamilton County), OH 76.6 76.4 76

West Alton, MO 76.3 75.3 75.3

Holland, MI 75.8 75.3 75.2

Detroit (East 7 Mile), MI 75.2 75.2 75

Columbus (New Albany), OH 75.1 75.1 74.9