MIGRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

POLI 146A

READING

• Smith, Talons, ch. 13

• Domínguez and Fernández de Castro, chapters 2, 4, 5 (Mexico, Central America, Caribbean)

Introduction: Patterns and Policies

THE NUMBERS GAME(S)• Flows• Stocks• Proportions• Costs and benefits• Rates of assimilation

Emotional Issues and Political Debates

• Ethnicity vs. melting pots

• Diversity vs. tradition

• Fairness vs. efficiency

Numerical Dimensions

• ~11 million illegal immigrants in U.S.• 55-60% from Mexico• 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now

in U.S.• U.S.-Mexican wage ratio ~ 8:1 or 10:1

Undocumented Immigrants in the United States

2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000

10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000 26 000 28 000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2003

Mill

ones

Mexican-Origin Population in United States, 1900-2003

Mx-born (9.9)

1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0° 8 6°1 14 °

3 0°

2 6°

2 2°

1 8°

E s t a d o s U n i d o s d e A m é r i c a

G o l f o d e M é x i c o

T ró p i c o d e C án ce r

B e l ic e

E sc a l a 1 :1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

O c é a n o P a c í fi c o G u a te m a la

1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0°1 14 °

3 0°

2 6°

2 2°

1 8°

Go l f o d e C a l i f o r n i a

(Ma r d e C o r t é s )

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 k m

Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants

Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Años

Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003

Border Patrol Agents

Effects of Border Enforcement

1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona)

2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers)

3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent stays)

4. More women and families

5. Increased loss of life

Deaths at the Border

2001 = 528

2002 = 470

2003 = 478

2004 = 460

2005 > 500

Migration and the Global Economic Crisis (2008+)

• Context: joblessness everywhere• New entries down (not due to border

enforcement, since 95% of migrants without papers get through)

• Return migration growing (despite concern in Mexico about major increase)

• Net migration from Mexico ~ zero• Within USA, unemployment among Latino

men > Anglo men

The Range of Policy Choice: Legal Migration

• Revise legal quotas

• Revise criteria for entry

The Range of Policy Choice: Illegal Migration

Strategies for restriction: Building fences Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper) Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187) Punishing employers

Strategies for opening: Augmenting quotas Guest-worker programs Eliminating barriers

Strategies for reduction: Targeting economic development Circulating information Additional steps?

Initiatives on Migration

Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001)

Phase 2: Focus on Security and Border Fortification

Phase 3: The Second Bush Term

• Temporary amnesty for those here and employed

• Guest-worker program

• Eventual path to citizenship

OBAMA AND THE CIR

• Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth)

• Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas

• Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000

• Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers

• Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

What Would You Do?