Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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PT Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
April 2007
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Table of Contents
Investing in Indonesia p. 3Portfolio Strategies p. 19
Finance 22Agriculture 46Infrastructure 62Energy 82Consumption 90Automotive 98Heavy Equipment 102Property 106Transportation 114
MPAM Fund p. 118Agreement Specimen p. 130
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Investing in Indonesia
Stable Economic Growth– GDP 2006 = 5.50%– GDP 1Q07 (YoY) = 5.6% – IDR appreciation = 8.2% YTD– Inflation 2006 (YTD) = 6.6%– Inflation 2007F = 6.5%
Interest rate– SBI 1 mo = 9.0% (30 March 2007) - room for rate cut – Deposit rate declines faster than loan rate
Easing Monetary Policy
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
more…
Privatization Program– IPO
PT Jasa Marga – Toll RoadPT Indonesia Power – ElectricityPT Wijaya Karya – ConstructionPT Bank Tabungan Negara – BankPT Krakatau Steel – Steel
– Strategic Bank Negara Indonesia
Infrastructure project– Toll road– Power plant
Earning growth – fastest in region
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Indonesia Economic Indicators
Sovereign risk
– USD LT debt• S&P : B, positive outlook• Moody’s : B2, positive outlook• Fitch : BB-, positive outlook
– IDR LT debt• S&P : B+• Moody’s : B2• Fitch : BB-
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Indonesia Economic Indicators
9.258.759.7512.757.78.31 –mo SBI at year end (%)9,0008,9009,0209,8309,2908,420USD/IDR at year end
7.16.56.617.116.45.1Inflation (%)
OTHERS
297.4295.01292.96277.69245.21230.2Nominal GDP (USD BN)7.06.55.55.66.54.1Real GDP growth (%)
GDP
2008 F2007 F2006200520042003
Source: Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of statistics, F- MPAM
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Indonesian Market
Market P/E 2007 F -13.7xAttractive P/E
Upgrade rating –positive outlook
Source: F- MPAM
02468
1012141618
HSI STI KLCI PCOMP JCI SET
2007 F
2008 F
SETJCIPCOMPKLCISTIHSIP/E
8.913.012.613.715.416.22008 F9.613.714.415.218182007 F
ThailandIndonesiaPhilippineMalaysiaSingaporeHong Kong
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
more…Credit has been plentiful – Banking SectorLow inflationMacro stabilityMarket Cap: IDR 1.321 Trillion = USD 146 Billion per 30 March 2007First Quarter 2007 Capital Inflow USD 2.4 Billion (USD 362 million in equity)Consensus SBI 8.5% by mid year – demand for Banks and PropertyCommodities price recorded the strongest earning growth –mining & plantations
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
more…
0
5
10
15
20
25
ROE (%) 24.1 18.4 16.5 15.2 13.2
JCI SET PCOMP KLCI STI
Highest ROE 2006 in the region
Economic improving
Fund flow from government project
Earnings will be double in 2010
Source: Bloomberg
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Regional Indices Performance
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2006
SHSZ300JCIHSISTIKLCINIKKEI
KOSPI
1,368.2
16,194.6
906.6
2,337.9
15,101.5
1,164.1
920.9
28 Dec 05
1,434.5
17,224.8
1,088.9
2,963.5
20,001.9
1,805.5
1,979.9
28 Dec 06
55.1JCIIndonesia
32.5HSIHong Kong
26.8STISingapore
20.1KLCIMalaysia
6.4NIKKEIJapan
4.9KOSPISouth Korea
115SHSZ300China
Change (%)CodeCountry
Source: Bloomberg
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Performance Indexes Asia Pacific
(0.92%)
DowJones
IndiaBSE 30
Hong Kong(HSI)
Japan(N 225)
Taiwan(TWSE)
Korea(KOSPI)
Indonesia(JCI)
Singapore(STI)
Malaysia(KLSE)
Shanghai(SSE)
(5.18%)(0.82%)0.36%0.78%1.26%1.39%8.24%13.69%18.86%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
SSE KLSE STI JCI KOSPI TWSE N 225 HSI Dow BSESource: Bappepam-LK
From 29 Dec 2006 – 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
more…
2005 – 2006 JCI up 55.1% (2nd best in the region)
Shares are still undervalued
Corporate profits faster than expected
Buy back shares
Supporting the stock market
High profit to reduce default
Dividend payment
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Earning Growth
• Fastest earnings growth in Asia• Corporate earnings for 2006 YE growth at 25.8%
2.14.111.914.115.018.819.119.920.722.8
Hong Kong
SingaporeThailandChinaKoreaIndiaPhilippinesMalaysiaTaiwanIndonesia
Source: F- MPAM
Earning Growth 2007 F
0
5
10
15
20
25
Indonesia Taiwan Malaysia Philippines India Korea China Thailand Singapore Hong Kong
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Jakarta Index
as of 30 March 2007
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USD/IDR Exchange Rate
as of 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
New Regulations• Parliament passed a new regulations to benefit the investors called
Investment Bill– To reduce cost for doing business in Indonesia– To create a series of investments and job creations
Ex: 1. Eliminate Tariffs on capital goods2. Allow investors to invest in 15 key industries including palm oil
processing, food processing, agribusiness, ship building, etc3. Economic partnership agreement between Indonesia and
Japan, which will exempt 90% of Indonesia exports to Japan from tariffs including textiles and footwear
• A Railways regulations– Allow stated-owned companies, regional government companies, private
and others to develop and operate railways• Next plan is to liberalize airport and port ownership
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Government plan
• Investment – lower interest rate & low inflation
• Simple administration for any investments
• Tax reform – competitive tax
• Law enforcement
• Increase security
• Political stability
• Infrastructure project
• Labor prosperity
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Concerns
• High oil prices
• Global terrorism
• The American current-account deficit
• Small market cap
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Strategies
CTRA (10), CTRS (8)7Property
ASII (10)8AutomotiveUNTR (10)8Heavy Equipment
INDF (10), KLBF (8)8Consumption
BLTA (10)7Transportation
TLKM (9), ISAT (10), PGAS (10), BNBR (8), TOTL (7)9InfrastructurePTBA (10), MEDC (6)8Energy
AALI (10), LSIP (6), UNSP (8), TBLA (6)9Agriculture
BBRI (10), BBCA (10), BNGA (8), BDMN (8), BNLI (6), BMRI10Finance
Stocks pickScale (1-10)
Sector
Investment Ranking : Scale 1-10 ( weighted) in scale - 10 = top priority, 9 = priority, etc
Scale 1-10 ( weighted) in stocks pick – concerns on market cap & liquidity
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Equity Rating Key
Recommendation FundamentalTarget Fair Value for 12 months view• BUY : return > 15%• Outperform (OP) ; return 0% – 15%• Under perform (UP) : return (10%) – 0%• SELL : return < (10%)• Discount > 40% from fair value, we highly recommend BUY – fundamental remain unchanged• Bullish Market maximal price 1.1 x Fair Value
Recommendation Technical• Tactical Trading
• Return is calculated when recommend has changed ( + / - )
• Recommendation can be changed anytime depend on the pattern
Up trend Pattern : Ascending Triangle, Flag, Double or Triple bottom, Inverted Shoulder Head Shoulder, Wedge
Downtrend Pattern : Descending Triangle, Double or Triple Top, Shoulder Head Shoulder
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
News
• Indonesian Central Bank (BI) make a new regulations for banks — Old rule : clients who has a bad credit in one bank will
get the same treatment in other banks even they do not have a bad credit in other banks
— New rule : clients will get an individuals treatment in each banks depend on the conditions
– Positive : lower NPL on Banks with LDR > 70%
• Banks must be maintained their NPL < 5 % in 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank BRI – BBRI
As of 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
32.6
27.61
Disc. (%) to
FV
5,050
5,250
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
6,700
6,700
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Focusing on micro
• Strong loan growth expected at 19.5% growth in 2007
• Plan to lend to the toll road and agribusiness sectors
• Concern on single presence policy ( Government Own 57.37%) with
BMRI
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5,05015,247
157,458136,73620,722
7,0115,01110.641429.72.7
11.218018.24.778
61,458
2007 F
(1.94)13.531.76
(0.80)22.7721.2117.71(0.46)15.320.33
(27.02)(17.03)
0.55(7.61)(3.29)
7.54(1.77)
70.247.91
26.0225.9726.408.88
11.79(9.66)13.96(0.67)
(15.90)(12.33)
13.2923.004.20
(5.80)89.43
5,15013,429
154,725137,84616,878
5,7844,25710.65
35929.63.7
13.5179
18.824.9
72.5362,570
3,02512,437
122,775109,42213,352
5,3123,80811.79
31529.84.4
15.415815.34.7
77.533,030
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 6,700
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE. TARGET 5,500
BREAK FROM CHANNEL RESITANCE: STABLE 5,600 NEXT TARGET 6,200
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
5,050
5,250
Price
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
(3.80)
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank BCA - BBCA
As of 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
27.45
26.21
Disc. (%) to
FV
5,100
5,150
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
6,500
6,500
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
SME42%
Corporate41%
Housing8%
Credit Card5%
Etc.4%
Loan Breakdown• BCA plans to move aggressively on
mortgage loan product in 2007 offering a low rate–
mortgage is a low credit risk and the yield is over SBIs
• More room for credit expansion – LDR >40%
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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5,15022,875
197,406175,67721,72910,873
5,2536.4382
26.212.7
10.218020.81.5
45.162,876
2007 F
(0.96)18.0511.6510.6720.2614.6523.80
(13.51)10.72(9.83)
(23.07)(16.73)
9.09(5.83)
(11.76)11.91(0.96)
52.9425.8417.7218.1614.0123.9117.9312.1218.153.26
33.9628.9417.85
2.6(10.52)(3.54)53.04
5,20019,376
176,799158,73018,067
9,4834,243
7.4345
29.073.51
12.25165
22.091.7
40.3063,491
3,40015,397
150,181134,33215,847
7,6533,597
6.6292
28.162.629.5140
21.531.9
41.7841,485
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 6,500
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL. NO 3 SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TRENDBREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 3. TARGET 5,450
UP TREND, BREAK CHANNEL RESITANCE 1. TARGET 5,500
Remark
5,150 – 5,250
5,200 – 5,300
Resistance
4,900 – 5,000
4,950 – 5,050
Support
5,100
5,150
Price
CHANNEL
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
(0.97)
Return
(%)
30-Mar--07
26-Jan-07
Date
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Niaga – BNGA
As of 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
47.29
22.47
Disc. (%) to
FV
740
890
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,090
1,090
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Strong loan growth expected 24% in 2007
• Focusing on mortgage
• Concern on single presence policy with Lippo Bank
SME42%
Housing12%
Corporate26%
Consumer15%
Credit Card5%
Loan Breakdown
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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7407,015
49,15044,240
4,9101.192
8286.15
7133.78
2.311.2
1215
3.391.8
8,880
2007 F
(19.56)17.245.595.952.5615.9
27.77(0.80)31.48
103.866.48
(34.19)103.38(9.90)31.47
8.2(14.11)
127.1645.2911.9311.0120.7041.4018.4614.81
(10)(21.35)
92.85252.74(35.65)(3.42)
(41.49)(0.66)
132.59
9206,014
46,54441,752
4,7871,028
6486.254
16.572.16
17.025.9
16.652.51
84.7810,339
4054,124
41,58037,610
3,9667275475.460
21.071.126.749.17
17.244.29
85.354,445
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 1,090
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
CONSOLIDATION 730 –800BREAK FROM DOWNTREND LINEPOSSIBLE REVERSE TREND FROM SIDE WAYS TO UP TRENDBREAK 800: TARGET 850
BREAK PATTERN: TARGET 730
Remark
(I) 790 – 810(II) CHANNEL
RESISITANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
730 - 750
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
740
800
890
Price
CHANNEL
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
SELL
HOLD
Rec.
7.50
(10.11)
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
23-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Danamon – BDMN
As of 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
19.08
18.03
Disc. (%) to
FV
6,550
6,100
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
7,800
7,200
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
Loan Breakdown
SME46%
Corporate15%
Motorcycle21%
Cars9%
Housing3%
Credit Cards6%
- Focusing in SME and automotive segments (ADIRA)
- Concern on Single Presence Policy (with BNII)
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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6,5508,150
87,05076,29710,753
2,8451,910
9.3383
192.7
17.10215
193.8
84.532,579
2007 F
(2.96)(58.69)
6.065.4
13.8815.0844.155.44
42.386.3
(22.85)(8.55)79.16
(13.63)15.1511.90(1.40)
42.1041.9221.0422.599.93
(22.45)(33.84)(1.45)
(34.06)230.74
29.6266.96
(40.88)(4.34)26.92(8.80)42.79
6,75012,93482,07372,386
9,4422,4721,3258.82269
17.863.5
18.7120
223.3
75.5133,042
4,7509,113
67,80359,043
8,5893,1882,0038.954085.42.7
11.2203
232.6
82.823,140
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 7,800
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
TARGET 7,300
UP TREND
LONG TREM: TRIPLE BOTTOM
SHORT TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOM
BUY6,55030-Mar-07
TARGET 7,300
BREAK 6,100: TARGET 6,700
(NOTE: ACHIEVED 23-MAR-07). UP TREND
TARGET 7,300
RemarkResistance
5,450 -5,850
Support
6,050
6,100
Price
LONG TREM: TRIPLE BOTTOM
SHORT TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOM
TRIPLE BOTTOM
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
8.26
(0.82)
Return
(%)
20-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Permata – BNLI
As of 30 March 2007
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
33.33
37.93
Disc. (%) to
FV
900
870
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,200
1,200
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Benefit from lower interest rate
• ASII and Standard Chartered Bank own BNLI
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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9006,125
41,68036,544
5,136655365
788.29.342.0
17.2016
15.54.1
84.56,970
2007 F
3.4419.0910.137.39
36.5225.7117.3616.66120.513.0712.99
(20.48)
14.8124.241.684.51
20.8336.748.80
15.1646.2630.575.429.095.26
(27.98)(17.67)
18.91
37.7526.925.85
20.83
8705,143
37,84534,030
3,762521311
640
8.261.77
21.63-
13.53.3
83.106,669
7203,761
34,78232,155
2,5723992955.538
11.472.15
18.19-
9.82.6
78.505,519
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 1,200
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Recommendation Technical
SHORT TERM: SIDEWAYSPRICE DIRECTION: IF BREAK CHANNEL LINE
BREAK NECKLINE TARGET 1,070SORT TERM: SIDEWAYS
Remark
900 - 910
900 - 910
Resistance
840 - 850
840 - 850
Support
900
870
Price
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
3.44
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
42
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Mandiri – BMRI
As of 30 March 2007
43
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
40.00
32.07
Disc. (%) to
FV
2,500
2,650
Price
upgrade on restructure
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
4,100
3,500
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Asset recovery/ restructure
• Potential low NPL – 2007 NPL < 5%
• Low Valuation – upgrade
• Forecasting change – better NPL
Corporate49%
Commercial30%
Small7%
Micro2%
Consumer12%
Loan Breakdown
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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2,50037,082
277,915251,57426,340
5,2503,6505.8618415.82.7
12.787.4
239.9
59.851,580
2007 F
(13.79)27.893.884.31
-93.6550.7630.2254.6261.22
20(47.84)
46.89(6.5)
(42.03)8.6
(12.90)
76.8222.971.560.41
13.46128.19301.49
15.38296.66255.07
58.45(55.60)300.59
6.07(35.74)
10.1080.16
2,90028,994
267,517241,17126,341
2,7112,421
4.51199.8
2.2524.3559.5
24.6217.0855.02
59,221
1,64023,578
263,383240,16423,215
1,1886033.930
2.761.42
54.8514.8523.2126.5849.97
32,871
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 4,100
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
BREAK NECKLINE 2,850 SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND
BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL: TARGET 2,750
TARGET 2,375, ACHIEVED
BREAK 2,650 FILTER 1 % (2,600 – 2,575) TARGET 2,375BUY: BREAK 2,650 – 2,700 WITH HEAVY VOL
Remark
NECKLINE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
2,500
2,550
2,425
2,650
Price
INVERTSHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
Rec.
(1,96)
5.15
8.49
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
9-Mar-07
9-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
46
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : Astra Agro Lestari – AALI
As of 30 March 2007
47
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
27.77
24.32
Disc. (%) to
FV
12,600
12,950
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
16,100
16,100
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• CPO prices continue to strength
• Demand for CPO also strength (Demand > Supply)
• The cheapest production cost / ton in the industries
USD 184
CPO80%
Palm Kernel8%
Derivatives10%
Non CPO2%
Revenue
6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)
10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)
USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton
UNSPAALILSIP07 F
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
48
12,6005,8004,176
4763,7002,3581,57327.12
99942.525.36
12.61265
2,3508.40
19,834
2007 F
054.3419.42
(36.36)34.5996.6699.8929.5299.8948.52
(25.70)(49.97)180.42)
34.59(32.80)
0
157.1411.489.56
31.464.80
0(0.38)
(10.64)(0.38)(4.95)
145.36158.12(70.91)
4.80(12.59)157.15
12,6003,7583,497
7482,7491,199
78720.94
50028.637.22
25.2195
1,74612.50
19,843
4,9003,3713,192
5692,6231,199
79023.44
50230.122.949.77325
1,66614.307,713
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 12,600
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
13
49
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL. SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE BREAK RESISTANCE. TARGET 14,050
BREAK UP TREND SUPPORT (SINCE OCT 06)
UP TRENDBREAK TRIANGLE: TARGET I - 15,700BREAK 15,700 - TARGET II
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
12,800 –13,300
Support
12,600
13,250
12,950
Price
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
TRIANGLE
Pattern
BUY
SELL
BUY
Rec.
4.90
2.31
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
50
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : London Sumatera – LSIP
As of 30 March 2007
51
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)
10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)
USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton
UNSPAALILSIP07 F
16.13
17.39
Disc. (%) to
FV
6,200
5,750
Price Remarks
OP
BUY
Rec.
7,200
6,750
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Selling palm products to domestic markets (83% of sales)
• Compare industries – LSIP the highest production cost per ton
Revenue Break down :
• Palm 70%
• Rubber 21%
• Seeds 5%
• Others 4%
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
52
OPFair Value IDR 7,200
6,2002,6753,5671,7651,802
705480
17.94372
26.644.70
16.6761
1,64312.706,790
2007 F
(6.06)24.5319.507.69
33.8854.9558.4227.2166.8218.33
(29.78)(43.69)
1.6766.63
(30.98)(6.06)
505.5017.1814.7210.9719.462.48
(14.89)(27.37)(14.56)(28.86)406.02608.68
019.66(4.66)
123.72
6,6002,1482,9851,6391,346
455303
14.11223
22.516.69
29.6060
98618.407,229
1,0901,8332,6021,4771,125
444356
19.42261
31.641.324.18
0824
19.303,231
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
14
53
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
LONG TERM: UP TRENDSIGNAL BUY: BREAK RESISTANCE WEDGE
LONG TERM: UP TRENDBREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 5,400
Remark
RESISTANCEWEDGE
Resistance
SUPPORTWEDGE
NECKLINE
Support
6,200
5,750
Price
WEDGE
SHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER
Pattern
HOLD
HOLD
Rec.
7.82
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
54
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : Bakrie Sumatera Plan. – UNSP
As of 30 March 2007
55
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
30.43
32.32
Disc. (%) to
FV
1,150
990
Price
Upgrade concern of CPO & rubber price
demand > supply
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,500
1,310
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• CPO and rubber price continuous strength
• The Lowest PBV and PE in the industry
6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)
10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)
USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton
UNSPAALILSIP07 F
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
56
BuyFair Value IDR 1,500
1,1501,1421,570
540900675256
22.46110
28.492.90
10.4519
3866.40
2,681
2007 F
18.5614.4813.77
(16.92)23.2965.0031.5714.9331.576.72
(6.37)(9.89)18.7523.32
(34.02)18.56
133.7312.9310.84
(13.79)48.6879.4968.0048.7768.0013.0057.2139.13
049.04
(22.40)133.82
970997
1,380650730409195
19.5484
26.703.10
11.6016
3139.70
2,261
415883
1,245754491228116
13.1450
23.631.978.34
0210
12.50967
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
15
57
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
TARGET DOUBLE BOTTOM: 1,350
Remark
NECKLINECHANNEL RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
1,150
990
Price
LONG TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOMUP TREND CHANNEL
UP TREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
16.16
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
58
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : Tunas Baru Lampung – TBLA
As of 30 March 2007
59
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
30.15
38.98
Disc. (%) to
FV
315
295
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
410
410
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Concern on small cap and liquidity
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
60
BuyFair Value IDR 315
3151,3552,2151,270
945155
715.24
177.511.37
18.535
2293.20
1,299
2007 F
31.2513.488.107.179.38
14.8133,9618.04
(10.53)22.4820.0046.6925.009.56
(52.24)31.25
20.00(2.21)41.2126.2068.7513.45
783.33803.31375.00423.46(28.89)(74.74)406.33
68.54(31.63)
20.00
2401,1942,049
1,1185864135
534.44
196.131.15
12.634
2096.70990
2001,2211,451
939512119
60.49
41.171,61
500.791249.80825
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
16
61
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
SIDEWAYS
BREAK UP TREND CHANNEL: TARGET 280
CRUCIAL PRICE: 305 – 310. IF BREAK 310 BREAK WITH VOL. TARGET 380
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
315
330
295
Price
UP TREND CHANNEL
Pattern
HOLD
SELL
BUY
Rec.
4.54
11.86
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
1-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
62
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Infrastructure : Telkom – TLKM
As of 30 March 2007
63
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
21.82
15.70
Disc. (%) to
FV
9,850
9,550
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
12,000
11,050
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Cash rich
• Room for expansion
• Dividend Promising
• Strength growth
• Concern on retirement plan
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
64
BuyFair Value IDR 12,000
9,85060,14581,53033,78047,75026,98013,678
22.74678
28.654.16
14.52372
2,3695.70
198,576
2007 F
(2.48)16.3816.673.48
28.2422.7521.184.12
21.18(5.50)
(23.95)(19.52)
20.7828.26
(16.18)(2.48)
71.1923.6112.400.22
25.8028.0141.2114.2441.2112.2536.0821.2341.2825.81
(18.07)71.19
10,10051,67869,88032,64537,23521,98011,287
21.84560
30.315.47
18.04308
1,8476.80
203,616
5,90041,80762,17132,57329,59817,170
7,99319,12
39627.014.02
14.88218
1,4688.30
118,944
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 F(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
17
65
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
BREAK NECKLINE: 10,350BREAK RESISTANCE NO 4: TARGET 10,500POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND TO UP TREND
TURNING POINT TARGET 9,800
BREAK TRIANGLE; TARGET 8,900THE PRICE STABLE OR MAKE A NEW DIRECTION AND NOT BELOW SUPPORT NO 3, WITHIN 1 – 2 WEEKS
Remark
NECKLINE
RESISTANCE NO 4
Resistance
9,550SUPPORT
NO 3
Support
9,850
8,950
9,550
Price
TRIANGLE
Pattern
BUY
BUY
SELL
Rec.
10.05
6.28
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
13-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
66
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Infrastructure : Indosat – ISAT
As of 30 March 2007
67
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
14.40
19.16
Disc. (%) to
FV
6,250
6,000
Price Remarks
OP
BUY
Rec.
7,150
7,150
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Growth promising
• Concern on buy back shares from government
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
68
OPFair Value IDR 7,150
6,25014,67537,90021,20016,700
4,1251,93713.20
36011.602.03
17.36130
3,0734.80
33.962
2007 F
12.6119.9010.7311.429.86
21.3937.3814.5733.3325.042.50
(15.54)(7.14)
9.86(18.64)
12.61
(3.48)5.614.403.006.19
(6.93)(13.12)(17.74)(11.76)(18.19)(9.10)
0.39(1.41)
6.18(4.84)(3.48)
5,55012,23934,22819,02715,201
3,3981,41011.52
2709.281.98
20.56140
2,7975.90
30,158
5,75011,58932,78718,47214,315
3,6511,62314.00
30611.342.18
18.79142
2,6346.20
31,245
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
18
69
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
CONSOLIDATION, MAKE A NEW PATTERNSTABLE 6,200 – 6,350, WITHIN 2-3 WEEKS, TARGET 6,800
BREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 6,600
UP TREND
Remark
NECKLINE
Resistance
6,050 – 6,150
5,700 – 5,800
5,700 - 5,800
Support
6,250
6,150
6,000
Price
DOUBLEBOTTOM
Pattern
BUY
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1.62
2.5
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
23-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
70
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Infrastructure : Perusahaan Gas Negara –PGAS
As of 30 March 2007
71
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
60.42
50.83
Disc. (%) to
FV
9,350
8,950
Price
Upgrade
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
15,000
13,500
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• All negative news has been priced to the market
• Open access competition is likely to be delay
• Net profit will pick up in 2008 – forecast > 100%
• All projects are still on schedule
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
72
BuyFair Value IDR 15,000
9,35011,50018,46511,465
7,0003,1251,69014.70
38024.146.06
24.61237
1,54210.50
42,448
2007 F
(19.40)73.4022.1720.2025.5430.59
(10.68)(48.49)(8.87)
(28.85)(35.79)(11.55)127.88
25.57(43.00)(19.40)
68.1222.0520.1913.8632.8354.09
119.4879.84
117.1965.2526.57
(22.59)103.92
32.75(21.11)
68.12
11,6006,632
15,1149,5385,5762,3931,89228.53
41733.939.44
27.82104
1,22818.42
52,663
6,9005,434
12,5758,3774,1981,553
86215.86
19220.537.46
35.9451
92523.35
31,325
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
19
73
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
BREAK UP TREND CHANNEL, TARGET 10,200TREND WILL BE REVERSED FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND, BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL (SINCE AUGUST 2006)
UP TRENDSIGNAL SELL, BREAK FROM SUPPORT NO 6
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANC
ENO 2
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
NO 2
LINE NO 6
Support
9,350
8,950
Price
UP TRENDCHANNEL
PARALLEL TREND
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
4.46
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
74
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Infrastructure : Bakrie & Brother – BNBR
As of 30 March 2007
75
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
33.68
52.43
Disc. (%) to
FV
187
164
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
250
250
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Strong earning growth in infrastructure and telecommunication
78.6%Bakrie Telecommunication (BTEL)
96.8%Bakrie Communication
Equity StakeDivisionSectors
28%
25%
46%
91.7%Infrastructure
54.5%Plantation (UNSP)
Telecommunication
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
76
BuyFair Value IDR 250
1876,0559,8105,3004,510
705620
10.2423
13.750.808.131.751673.00
5,043
2007 F
20.6539.7713.2026.520.74
15.38188.52106.42188.52186.41(11.11)(58.18)150.00
0.60(30.23)
20.65
29.1758.2223.5946.837.65
175.23(26.12)(53.30)(26.12)(31.36)
15.6674.83
(35.19)7.79
(20.37)29.17
1554,3328,6664,1894,477
6112154.96
84.800.90
19.440.701664.30
4,180
1202,7387,0122,8534,159
222291
10.6311
7.000.78
11.121.081545.40
3,236
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
20
77
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
UP TRENDPOSSIBLE BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 2. BREAK CHANNEL RESITANCE NO 2: TARGET 210
BREAK FORM INTACT RESISTANCE: 170 (2ND
RESISTANCE: 175), TARGET 190-195
Remark
CHANNELRESISTANCE NO 2
CHANNELRESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNELSUPPORT NO 2
CHANNELSUPPORT
Support
187
164
Price
UP TRENDCHANNEL
UP TRENDCHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
14.02
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
78
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Infrastructure : Total Bangun Persada - TOTL
As of 30 March 2007
79
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
53.22
55.73
Disc. (%) to
FV
620
610
Price
Possible upgrade
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
950
950
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Very prospective stock – construction company
• Benefit from lower interest rate – infrastructure project can get lower rate for funding
• Upgrade depend on the 1st Quarter report
• Performance is better than ADHI
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
80
BuyFair Value IDR 950
6201,4101,058
540518178
986.95
3618.923.29
17.409
18810.101,705
2007 F
(4.62)26.015.80
(2.00)15.4733.83(3.92)
(23.75)(10.91)(16.72)(17.32)
7.060
15.33(17.21)(4.21)
0(3.70)26.5814.5545.31683564.5270.8460.0013.22
000000
6501,1191,000
5514491331029.12
4022.723.98
16.250
16312.101,788
01,162
790481309
7962
5.3425
20.06000
11200
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
21
81
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
UP TREND
RemarkResistanceSupport
620
Price Pattern
BUY
Rec. Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
Date
82
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Energy : Tambang Batu Bara – PTBA
As of 30 March 2007
83
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
41.30
31.20
Disc. (%) to
FV
3,450
3,125
Price
Upgrade valuation
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
4,875
4,100
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
- Railway RegulationRailway is the only transport for PTBA
PTBA can develop a railway transportation to transport their coal from mining to port before they are shipped to both domestic (70%) and export (30%)
Also can increase the output to 40m tonnes per annum from 10m tonnes per annum
- Power Supply PTBA plans to build a power supply in Tanjung Enim - Sumatra
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
84
BuyFair Value IDR 4,875
3,4504,9684,900
8314,069
935765
15.40332
18.801.95
10.39158
1,76610.307,949
2007 F
(2.13)41.1458.062.62
77.6841.6756.1110.6156.11
(12.14)(44.92)(37.30)
58.0077.66
(17.60)(2.13)
95.8317.379.152.92
11.5417.654.93
(10.61)1.27
(5.93)75.5793.37
011.56
(18.83)95.83
3,5253,5203,100
8102,290
660490
13.92213
21.403.55
16.57100994
12.508,122
1,8002,9992,840
7872,053
561467
15.57210
22.752.028.57100891
15.404,147
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
22
85
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
STRONG RESISTANCE: 3,450REVERSED TREND FORM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND
BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL: TARGET 3,475
SIGNAL BUY: BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL
Remark
UP TRENDCHANNEL
RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
UP TREND CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
3,450
3,250
3,125
Price
UP TREND CHANNEL
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
HOLD
Rec.
6.15
4.00
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
21-Feb-07
26-Jan- 07
Date
86
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Energy : Medco Energy – MEDC
As of 30 March 2007
87
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
17.48
23.52
Disc. (%) to
FV
3,575
3,400
Price
Waiting for selling Lapindo Brantas
Remarks
HOLD
BUY
Rec.
4,200
4,200
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Concern: MEDC can not sell its share’s in Lapindo Brantas before get the approval
from Bappepam
• If the sale is success, we recommend BUY for MEDC
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
88
HOLDFair Value IDR 4,200
3,575830
1,7901,200
590280100
12.05247
16.952.24
14.47247
1,5934.1
11,914
2007 F
0.7010.6739.8468.304.06
27.2751.5236.9123.5045.61(3.22)
(18.46)178.31
4.04(10.87)
0.70
5.1920.9711.01
(26.72)6.38
21.55(11.65)(26.96)(8.68)
(16.94)(1.12)15.18
(15.17)6.39
(4.17)5.19
3,550750
1,280713567220
668.80200
11.642.32
17.7589
1,5314.60
11,830
3,375620
1,153973533181
7512.05
21914.022.34
15.41105
1,4394.80
11,247
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (US millions)Total Assets (US millions)Total Liabilities (US millions)Total Equities (US millions)Operating Profit (US millions)Net Profit (US millions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
23
89
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
UP TRENDSIGNAL BUY: BREAK DOWNTREND LINE NO 4
SIGNAL BUY: BREAK DOWNTREND LINE NO 3: TARGET 3,675 – 3,750
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 2
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT NO 2
CHANNEL SUPPORT NO 2CHANNEL RESITANCE NO 1
Support
3,575
3,400
Price
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
8.8
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
90
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Consumption : Indofood – INDF
As of 30 March 2007
91
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
38.15
34.61
Disc. (%) to
FV
1,520
1,560
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
2,100
2,100
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Internal Restructuring
• Develop plantation to support INDF
• Growth promising
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
92
BuyFair Value IDR 2,100
1,52025,40016,98011,300
5,6802,231
9903.90111
17.432.53
13.6924
6016.50
14.355
2007 F
12.5915.765.381.06
15.1912.9049.7729.3842.3130.02(2.25)
(20.88)23.0815.13(9.72)12.59
48.3516.9318.896.71
14.4618.89
433.06355.88420.00365.72
29.61(71.47)290.00
14.4718.0348.35
1,35021,94216,11211,181
4,9311,976
6613.01
7813.402.59
17.3120
5227.20
12,750
91018,76514,78610,478
4,3081,662
1240.66
152.881.99
60.675
4566.10
8,594
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
24
93
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
BREAK DOWNTREND LINE: POSSIBLE REVERSED TREND FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND
TARGET ACHIEVED (1,800)
TARGET TRIPLE BOTTOM: 1,800TARGET FLAG: 1,710
RemarkResistanceSupport
1,520
1,800
1,560
Price
LONG TERM: TRIPLE BOTTOMSHORT TERM: FLAG
Pattern
BUY
SELL
BUY
Rec.
15.55
15.38
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
9-Feb-07
26 Jan 07
Date
94
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Consumption : Kalbe Farma – KLBF
As of 30 March 2007
95
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
38.42
24.07
Disc. (%) to
FV
1,210
1,350
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,675
1,675
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• 8 February 2007 management approved IDR 1.2 trillions share buy back plan
• KLBF can buy up to 10% of its outstanding shares
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
96
BuyFair Value IDR 1,675
1,2107,1795,4111,1004,3111,360
84011.70
8819.492.85
13.7525
4247.6
12,289
2007 F
1.6818.0814.201.10
18.1117.2423.534.62
31.344.59
(13.91)(22.58)4
400.0018.10
(17.39)1.68
20.203.560.21
(53.48)52.784.884.130.564.69
(31.84)(21.33)
14.8225.0052.76
(12.38)20.20
1,1906,0804,7381,0883,6501,160
68011.18
6718.633.31
17.765
3599.2
12,086
9905,8714,7282,3392,3891,106
65311.12
6427.334.21
15.474
23510.5
10,054
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
25
97
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
DOUBLE BOTTOM: 26 JAN-07: FAILEDPRICE MOVEMENT: 1,180 –1,350
TARGET DOUBLE BOTTOM: 1,590
Remark
1,330-1,360
Resistance
1,180-1,210
NECKLINE1,330
Support
1,210
1,350
Price
CHANNEL
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
(10.37)
Return
(%)
30 Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
98
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Automotive : Astra International – ASII
As of 30 March 2007
99
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
44.69
24.02
Disc. (%) to
FV
13,200
15,400
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
19,100
19,100
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Benefit from lower interest rate sales will pick up
2
24
14
6
54
Percentage (%)
58.45Heavy Equipment - UNTR
86.72Others - AUTO
44.51Financial services -Bank Permata (BNLI)
76.68Agribusiness - AALI
Automotive
Ownership (%)Revenue breakdown
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
100
BuyFair Value IDR 19,100
13,20064,70060,50032,87727,623
6,6905,3448.26
1,32019.351.93
10.00410
6,8236.30
53,438
2007 F
(15.92)16.564.44
(7.53)23.4734.0443.9623.5143.9616.60
(31.90)(41.60)173.33
23.47(30.85)(15.92)
53.92(10.08)(5.29)
(12.73)9.54
(22.17)(31.98)(24.35)(31.98)(37.90)
40.51126.28(65.91)
9.5346.9453.92
15,70055,50857,92935,55622,373
4,9913,7126.69917
16.592.84
17.12150
5,5269.11
63,559
10,20061,73161,16640,74220,424
6,4135,4578.84
1,34826.722.027.57440
5,0456.20
41,293
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
26
101
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
STILL ABOVE NECKLINE OF DOUBLE BOTTOM (13,000)TARGET 12,500: ACHIEVEDBREAK FROM CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 2: TARGET 15,000
BREAK FROM DOWNTREND CHANNEL NO 1: TARGET 12,500
TARGET: 17.700
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
NO 2
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
NO 2
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
NO 2
CHANNEL SUPPORT
NO 2
Support
13,200
13,900
15,400
Price
LONG TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOMDOWNTREND CHANNEL
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Pattern
BUY
SELL
BUY
Rec.
9.49
(14.28)
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
14-Mar-07
26 Jan 07
Date
102
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Heavy Equipment : United Tractors – UNTR
As of 30 March 2007
103
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
14.86
28.78
Disc. (%) to
FV
7,400
6,600
Price Remarks
OP
BUY
Rec.
8.500
8.500
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Benefit from lower interest rate – equipment and coal sales will pick up
• Strong Sales
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
104
OPFair Value IDR 8,500
7,40017,40011,450
5,785,6622,3101,6829.67590
29.713.73
12.54165
1.9866.60
21.102
2007 F
12.9826.8213.371.94
28.0472.77
174.91116.77174.91114.70(11.77)(58.90)135.71
28.04(23.26)
12.98
78.233.31
(5.02)(13.02)
7.70(21.81)(41.77)(43.63)(41.77)(45.93)
65.49206.08(36.36)
7.7091.1178.23
6,55013,72010,100
5,6784,4221,337
6124.46215
13.844.22
30.5270
1,5518.60
18,678
3,67513,28110,634
6,5284,1061,7101,0517.91369
25.602.559.97110
1,4404.50
10,480
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
27
105
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
BREAK RESISTANCE: TARGET 7,850
BREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 7,450
Remark
7,350
NECKLINE
ResistanceSupport
7,400
6,850
6,600
Price
ASCENDING TRIANGLE
DOUBLE BOTTOM
SHORT TERM: DOWNTREND CHANNELLONG TERM: UP TREND
Pattern
BUY
BUY
HOLD
Rec.
8.02
12.12
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
19-Feb- 07
26 Jan 07
Date
106
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Property : Ciputra Development – CTRA
As of 30 March 2007
107
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
25.00
47.43
Disc. (%) to
FV
920
780
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,150
1,150
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
Benefit from
• Lower interest rate
• Lower mortgage rate
CTRA is a better company after last year restructured and right issue
Segment Market from high to low income
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
108
BuyFair Value IDR 1,150
9201,2884,1001,2902,810
3201279.89
204.532.09
46.000
136012.505,860
2007 F
21.053.04
(7.03)(24.56)
4.073.23
(71.43)(72.27)(71.43)(72.55)
16.31323.68
012.40(8.09)21.05
153.3319.05
(16.90)(68.35)
031.91
464.40374.09
42.8600
77.330
49.57(9.33)
153.33
7601,2504,4101,7102,700
310446
35.6770
16.511.79
10.860
1,21013.604,841
3001,0505,3075,403
(96)235
797.52
49(82.29)(19.91)
6.120
80915.001,911
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)NAVEV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
28
109
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
TARGET : 1,050
RANGE BETWEEN: 750 – 820. BREAK 820, TARGET 930SCENARIO NO 2: STABLE BETWEEN 870-910: TARGET 1,020
RemarkResistanceSupport
920
780
Price
FLAG
TRIANGLE
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
17.94
Return
(%)
30 Mar 07
26Jan 07
Date
110
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Property : Ciputra Surya – CTRS
As of 30 March 2007
111
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
37.09
37.09
Disc. (%) to
FV
930
930
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,275
1,275
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
Benefit from
• Lower interest rate
• Lower mortgage rate
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
112
BuyFair Value IDR 1,275
930515
2,100902
1,198105
8316.41
426.941.54
22.148
1,800605
1,840
2007 F
(5.10)(21.61)
16.8026.5110.41
(49.03)(50.82)(37.36)(50.82)(55.46)(14.05)
92.96(53.16)
21.6210.40(5.10)
133.3318.38(4.16)
(23.82)15.4333.7740.8318.9740.8322.01
102.1565.6842.3434.5515.42
133.33
980657
1,798713
1,085206169
25.7285
15.581.79
11.4817
1,480548
1,939
420555
1,876936940154120
21.6261
12.770.886.93
121,100
475831
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)NAV (IDR)Book Value (IDR)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
29
113
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
RANGE BETWEEN 900 – 1,000
UP TRENDRANGE BETWEEN 900 – 1,000BREAK 1,000: TARGET 1,100
Remark
990-1,010
990-1,010
Resistance
900-910
900-910
Support
930
930
Price Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
0
Return
(%)
30 Mar 07
26 Jan 07
Date
114
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Transportation : Berlian Laju Tanker – BLTA
As of 30 March 2007
115
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
27.65
43.71
Disc. (%) to
FV
1,880
1,670
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
2,400
2,400
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Strong sales
• Buy back shares
• Internal restructuring
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
116
BuyFair Value IDR 2,400
1,8803,6789,0355,4213,6141,208
92325.09
22225.542.168.47
478697.00
7,816
2007 F
8.0519.6910.126.84
15.4327.70
(23.40)(36.00)(26.73)(33.64)(6.39)47.4723.6815.40
(17.65)8.05
67.3117.423.74
(14.01)55.93(9.82)86.8259.1090.5719.817.30
(12.20)90.0055.90(6.59)67.31
1,7403,0738,2055,0743,131
9461,20539.21
30338.492.315.74
387538.50
7,234
1,0402,6177,9095,9012,0081,049
64524.65
15932.122.156.54
204839.10
4,324
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
30
117
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
LONG TERM; UP TRENDSIDE WAYS: 1,660 – 1,790SIGNAL BUY: BREAK 1,790: TARGET 1,910
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
1,880
1,670
Price
UP TREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
HOLD
Rec.
12.57
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26 Jan 07
Date
118
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Fund Management
as of 31 December 2006
483Total
455Discretionary
28Reksadana Keraton
Total (billion)Products
Our Services
MPAM
Corporate Finance
Financial Advisory
Mutual Fund Discretionary
Company RestructuringMerger and AcquisitionsCapital Formation for Pre-IPOStrategic Investment Advisory
Discretionary Funds- Direct Investment
Fund- Private Equity Fund- Pooling Fund
Reksadana KeratonMix Mutual Fund
119
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen