The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan, its implementation and

some potential PPPs

Jesper H. AndersenHead of unit (EU Water Policy)

DHI Water • Environment • Health

Round table discussion seminar

The environmental standing of the Baltic Sea:from political proposal to practical project

17 March 2008, Copenhagen, DK

Mission

• The HELCOM BSAP will neither save the Baltic Sea nor result in Good Environmental Status (sensu MSFD)

• Hopefully its implementation will improve environmental status as well as ecological status (sensu WFD) and conservation status (sensu HD)

• My mission today is to:– Focus on BSAP implementation in an adaptive

management framework– Outline an ongoing PPP as well as two

potentially promising PPPs

A few word on eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

The BSAP and adaptive management…

Source: Andersen & Pawlak, 2006

BSAP and eutrophication…

• The ’eutrophication segment’ of the BSAP is largely based on scenarios made by MARE/NEST

• The approach is state-of-the-art

Source: HELCOM, 2007

The BSAP and adaptive management…

Source: Andersen & Pawlak, 2006

B, G, Y, O, and R = H, G, M, P, and B

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Assessment of eutrophication status

Source: Andersen et al. (2007)

Overall objective:

• Assess the eutrophication status in the whole Baltic Sea on the basis of a harmonised approach

Additional objectives:

• Visualise and conceptualise the effects and extent of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

• Describe the causes of eutrophication and quantify the inputs of nutrients to the marine environment

• Assess the effectiveness of already taken measures in order to indicate i) to what extent the goals are fulfilled or not, and ii) to what extent supplementary measures are required

• HELCOM EUTRO-PRO is a ongoing but informal PPP (MS authorities, IGO, and a private partner)

Eutrophication and the way forward…

• Politics seem to have over-ruled science…

Source: HELCOM, 2007

A word of caution…

Source: Jackson et al., 2001

Linking BSAP, WFD and HD…

• Eutrophication has reduced SAV density and distribution

• However, SAV is many areas also limited by substrate availability, especially in Germany and Denmark

• Examples:– Limfjorden (Denmark) – reconstruction of 2 km2 stone reef will

reduce hypoxia risk in the order of 95%

– Arkona Basin - O2 ’inputs’ from the Belt Sea are significantly reduced - can we do anything to improve the situation?

• This could develop into a PPP …

BEACON, another PPP?

• Modelling of environmental issues is in general un-coordinated at a Baltic Sea-wide scale

• A lot of resources could be spend more effectively• … and in support of the BSAP implementation …

• We need co-ordination, harmonisation and a Baltic Sea Ecosystem Modelling Network (BEACON):– Hydrographic ensemble modelling– Reference conditions– Hypoxia– Boundary conditions (WFD coastal vs. MSFD marine)– Habitat building species (Fucus, Mytilus, Zostera, etc.)– Implementation (products, up-stream catchments, scenarios,

demonstration projects ► BEACON Tool Box)

• BEACON is a potential Public Private Partnership• Currently, a consortium is being set up with

participants from all Baltic Sea States (based on HELCOM EUTRO-PRO and BALANCE activities)

Wrap up (1)

• The HELCOM BSAP will not save the Baltic Sea

• However, implementation of the BSAP will improve environmental status in all parts of the Baltic Sea

• The eutrophication segment should be scrutinized, especially in regard to the planned nutrient reductions

Wrap up (2)

• Potential PPPs in support of BSAP implementation could include:

– Further development of assessment tools (together with the indicator on which they run) complementing existing HELCOM tools (HEAT (eutrophication) and BEAT (biodiversity))

– Supplement REDUCTIONS with ’ecological engineering’ in order to speed up recovery without infringement of EU directives

– Establish a Baltic Sea Ecosystem Modelling Network with focus on ensemble modelling, RefCon, hypoxia, boundary conditions, distribution of habitat building species, and ultimately a “Tool Box”

• Finally a word of caution:

– Involve all relevant institutions (public and business) that are willing to support BSAP implementation

– Tangible solutions cost a lot of money– Think BIG

Thank you for your attention