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Capability of passive microwave and SNODAS SWE estimates for hydrologic predictions in selected U.S. watersheds

Missouri Basin River Forecaster’s Meeting28-29 January 2014

Carrie M. Vuyovich, PE

ERDC/CRREL

Overview

• Background • Distributed snow data available in the U.S.• Previous study to evaluate Snow Water Equivalent

(SWE) data

• Motivation for current study• Water Budget Analysis• Snowmelt Timing Comparison• Conclusions• 2011 Flood Demonstration

Distributed Snow Data in the U.S.NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) SNODAS

• SWE estimates based on multi-sensor snow observations combined with energy balance snow model

• Hourly/Daily gridded SWE product for conterminous U.S.

• 1 km2 resolution• POR: October 2003 – Present • Sources of Error:

• Uncertainty in forcing and observation data• Gaps in available observation data

Snow Water Equivalent 21 Feb 2006 (Cline 2008)

NOHRSC Flight Lines (http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/)

Distributed Snow Data in the U.S.

Passive Microwave SWE• SSM/I

• POR: July 1987 – Present• Algorithm: SWE = C(TB,19 – TB,37)

• AMSR-E• POR: June 2002 – July 2011• Algorithm accounts for forest cover,

shallow/deep snow

• Sources of Error– Wet snow– Vegetation– Saturation depth– Topography– Snow metamorphosis

• 25x25 km resolution

Comparison of passive microwave and SNODAS SWE by HUC8

Conclusion: Best comparison in areas with < 20% forest cover with an average annual maximum SWE < 200 mm

Vuyovich et al, (in press), Water Resources Research

SNODAS - AMSR-E SNODAS - SSM/I

R2

Comparison of passive microwave and SNODAS SWE by HUC8

SNODAS - AMSR-E

SNODAS - SSM/I

Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency measure:

Great Plains SWE estimates

Objective: Evaluate SWE estimates from the 3 datasets (SNODAS, AMSR-E and SSM/I) by comparison to water budget components in selected Great Plains basins.

1. Sheyenne River near Cooperstown, ND

2. Cannonball River at Breien, ND

3. Moreau River near Whitehorse, SD

4. Bad River near Ft. Pierre, SD

5. Cheyenne River at Spencer, WY

6. White River near Interior, SD

7. White River near Oacoma, SD

8. Ponca Creek near Verdel, NE

9. South Loup River at St. Michael, NE

Methods

Where the SWE was the max annual value R, P and ET are the total volume measured through the spring melt

period, typically March – June GW is the loss to deep groundwater ΔSM is the change in soil moisture from the beginning to end of the

period

Water Budget data• Discharge: USGS daily streamflow records at basin outlet• Precipitation: NOAA CPC model output, NCDC stations• Evapotranspiration: NOAA CPC model output, NCDC stations• Soil Moisture: NOAA CPC model output for soil moisture

R² = 0.86

R² = 0.74

R² = 0.870

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 20 40 60 80

SWE+

P-ET

+/-S

M (m

m)

Runoff (mm)

Runoff and calculated water budget

SNODAS

AMSRE

SSMI

R² = 0.35

R² = 0.46

R² = 0.810

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 20 40 60 80 100

SWE+

P-ET

+/-S

M (m

m)

Runoff (mm)

Runoff and calculated water budget

SNODAS

AMSRE

SSMI

Example ResultsSheyenne River at Cooperstown, ND

Ponca Creek at Verdel, NE

020406080

100120140160

SWE

(mm

)

AMSRE-E

SSM/I

SNODAS

0

50

100

150

200

SWE

(mm

)

AMSRE-E

SSM/I

SNODAS

Results

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Corr

elati

on, R

2

SNODAS

AMSR-E

SSM/I

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Dis

char

ge (c

ms)

SWE

(mm

)

SNODAS AMSR-E SSM/I Moreau River Discharge

Timing of snowmelt

Timing of Spring runoff: typically corresponds to onset of snowmelt. Method: calculated timing difference between start of spring runoff and peak SWE

Winter snowpack and spring runoff for the 2008-09 water year in the Moreau River basin, SD.

Results

-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

SNODAS

AMSR-E

SSM/I

Average Difference between peak SWE and start of runoff (days)

South Loup River, NE

Ponca Creek near Verdel, SD

White River Near Oacoma, SD

White River Near Interior, SD

Bad River near Ft. Pierre, SD

Cheyenne River at Spencer, WY

Moreau River near Whitehorse, SD

Cannonball River at Brien, ND

Sheyenne River, ND

Conclusion• Passive microwave estimates of SWE are well-correlated to water

budget components in the Great Plains region of the US.

• Potential use for satellite SWE estimates in water resource applications in the Plains.

2011 Missouri River Flood

Comparison to historical statisticsSSMI_January

Above Record Maximum

Above 75th percentile

Between Average and 75th percentile

Between 25th percentile and Average

Below 25th percentile

Below Record Minimum

1May1Apr

1Mar1Feb1Jan

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

0

20

40

60

80

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JulD

isch

arge

(cm

s)

SWE

(mm

)

SSM/I Missouri River at St. Charles, MO US Army Corps of Engineers, 2011

15

Passive Microwave signal observations

Questions?