MISTA Geopolitics Annual Report 2017 - SEI...wp 5: foresight: sweden in a changing geopolitical...

ANNUAL REPORT 2017

EDITORIAL TEAM: KEVIN M. ADAMS, BRENDA OCHOLA, AND EVA KRUTMEIJER

THIS ANNUAL REPORT CAN BE DOWNLOADED ONLINE AT WWW.MISTRA-GEOPOLITICS.ORG

http://www.mistra-geopolitics.org/



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MISTRA GEOPOLITICS ONE YEAR DOWN THE LINE: AN INTRODUCTION BY BJÖRN-OLA LINNÉR

WHAT IS MISTRA GEOPOLITICS?

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT/

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT/

KEY OUTPUTS/

WP 1: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY IN THE ANTHROPOCENE

WP 2: IMPACT PATHWAYS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

WP 3: GOVERNANCE RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL RELATED SECURITY RISKS

WP 4: THE INTER-RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPES AND THE SDGS

WP 5: FORESIGHT: SWEDEN IN A CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE

BORDERLESS CLIMATE RISKS: MISTRA GEOPOLITICS AT COP23

CLIMATE SECURITY GOVERNANCE: A NEW RESEARCH AGENDA

EVENTS AND PUBLICATIONS

HOW DO WE WORK?

WHO ARE WE?

2017 FINANCIAL SUMMARY

CONTENTS

m i s t r a g e o p o l i t i c s

MISTRA GEOPOLITICS – ONE YEAR DOWN THE LINE A N I N T R O D U C T I O N B Y P R O G R A M M E D I R E C T O R B J Ö R N - O L A L I N N É R

It is a great pleasure to look back and

reflect on our first year of progress in

Mistra Geopolitics. Thanks to the efforts

of the host institution and our partners,

the research programme was officially

launched in early May and was able to

complete, as planned, all necessary

start-up activities to begin our work. For

the first year of mobilizing a large and

diverse consortium, I am extremely

impressed by what has been

accomplished to date.

In only a few short months,

programme researchers have already

displayed broad engagement with the

Mistra Geopolitics agenda, presenting

work that ranges from migration,

mobility, and development in the context

of Africa-EU relations, global climate

policy after the Paris Agreement and

under US President Donald Trump, to

the weaponisation of food security in

Russia and China, and work on

emerging transboundary climate risks.

Mistra Geopolitics has been represented

at a wide range of international

conferences and topically relevant

stakeholder workshops.

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The Mistra Geopolitics website,

www.mistra-geopolitics.org, is flourishing

with updates and insightful comments

from our invited guests, board members,

researchers and PhD candidates. Under

the hashtag #MistraGeopolitics, many

programme participants are not only

reporting from events and announcing

publications, but engaging in societal

and scientific debates. Mistra Geopolitics

researchers have been widely visible as

they have provided commentary on

geopolitics and sustainable

development, including through media

appearances.

In the coming year, we hope to build on

this encouraging start, in part by

heightening our collaboration with

programme partners both in and outside

of academia. We are excited to see new

original research outputs from all across

the research programme, as well as

inspiring interactions with research

school participants. It is with pride and

optimism that I look forward to the future

of Mistra Geopolitics.

Björn-Ola Linnér

Programme Director

Professor in Environmental Change at

Linköping University

While we anticipated that analyses of the

intersections between geopolitics,

security, and environmental change were

topical and timely, we have been

overwhelmed by the profound interest

and widespread support for the

programme. Thus far, we have

participated in activities with numerous

organisations, including the European

Commission Joint Research Centre, the

EU External Action Service, the United

Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change, the OECD, the Green

Climate Fund, the Swedish Ministry for

Foreign Affairs, the Swedish Ministry for

the Environment, the Reference Group

for the Swedish Security Council, the

Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency,

and multiple county administrations.

Relatedly, we are continuing to

collaborate closely with our stakeholder

partners, and have recently launched a

Breakfast Seminar series which has

attracted a great deal of interest.

In parallel to our research outputs, the

Mistra Geopolitics Research School

has recruited eight promising PhD

candidates, many of whom are already

contributing to advancing knowledge in

this critical research field. In addition,

three guest PhD researchers from Brazil,

Peru, and Nigeria will join the school in

the autumn of 2018, with the aim of

fostering global collaboration and

capacity-building to analyse and respond

to the geopolitics of sustainable

development.

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We live in a complex world. The Mistra

Geopolitics research programme is designed

to explore, analyse, and understand this

complexity, specifically at the intersection of

sustainability and security.

Could radical emission reductions under the

Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target affect

the short and medium-term prospects for

human security and development?

How could Russia’s geopolitical calculus be

affected by an accelerating shift toward

renewables and thereby reductions in oil and

gas prices?

Will the combination of shifting demographic

structures in the Middle East and North

Africa and mounting environmental

pressures influence social instability and

encourage transnational migration into

Europe?

WHAT IS MISTRA GEOPOLITICS?


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These questions help to demonstrate the

way that environmental change interacts in

important ways with social, political, and

economic forces. Uncertainties surrounding

our collective future continue to grow, and

there is ample reason to believe that broad

geopolitical shifts will have far-reaching

implications for global governance and the

pursuit of sustainable development. The

dynamic linkage between geopolitical and

environmental change forms the basis of our

work in Mistra Geopolitics, where we aim to

unpack the tension between challenges and

opportunities in this era of unprecedented

social transformation.

HOW CAN OUR WORK CONTRIBUTE?

The overall goal of Mistra Geopolitics is to

critically explore the interaction between

geopolitics, security and environmental

change. In a world characterized by growing

uncertainties, the programme will contribute

new knowledge while demonstrating

opportunities created by innovation and

technological development in a number of

areas.

The broad nature of this complex challenge

requires an inter-disciplinary approach. The

programme brings together diverse

disciplines and research approaches

spanning peace and conflict, human

security, global environmental change, and

the effectiveness of domestic, regional, and

global governance.

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CLIMATE SECURITY GOVERNANCE: A NEW RESEARCH AGENDABy: Lisa Dellmuth and Maria-Therese Gustafsson, Stockholm University

Societies worldwide are increasingly

confronted by a new wave of security

challenges posed by climate change, such

as droughts, wildfires and hurricanes.

Human and state security risks posed by

climate change are often transnational and

therefore require viable and effective

intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) to

manage. IGOs such as the African Union,

Asian Development Bank, European Union

(EU), International Organization for

Migration, and United Nations (UN) High

Commissioner for Refugees (HNHCR) have

over the past two decades increasingly

engaged with climate security risks.

The growing importance of IGOs in this area

raises a number of questions. Which IGOs

address climate security risks? How, why,

and to what extent do traditional security

organizations such as the North Atlantic

Treaty Organization (NATO) or the UN

Security Council deal with climate change?

How have these IGOs interpreted their

mandates differently to address climate

security risks more effectively? To what

extent has the UNHCR expanded its work to

help climate migrants and refugees? When,

how, and why do IGOs interact with non-

governmental organizations, private

transnational regulatory organizations, and

public-private partnerships to address

climate security risks? To what degree must

IGOs with mandates in different policy areas

(e.g. development, environment, health,

migration, and security) collaborate with

other organizations in order to effectively

address climate change?

Previous research on global climate security

governance has only insufficiently addressed

these questions. Existing studies have

R e s e a r c h h i g h l i g h t SOURCE: Dellmuth, L.M. et al. (2018).

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revealed that climate change is increasingly

talked about both in connection to state security

and human security, sometimes called the

“securitisation” of climate change. IGOs have

increasingly responded to these challenges

through the creation of working groups and the

assessment of climate risks.

In terms of state security, the absence of an

international agreement has prevented the UN

Security Council from addressing climate

security challenges, and some analysts have

therefore suggested that EU may be better

suited to address these challenges due to its

comprehensive approach to security.

In terms of human security, several UN agencies

have made efforts to counteract the adverse

effects of climate change by to larger extent

emphasizing the importance of people-centred

and right-based approaches. However, although

global climate security is increasingly attracting

scholarly attention across the environmental

social sciences, we still know little about when

and why IGOs address climate security

challenges, and how they can do so effectively.

The Mistra Geopolitics programme has an

important role to play in addressing this research

need. Under Work Package 3, and in

collaboration with other programme activities, we

will address the questions of when and why

IGOs address climate security challenges, and

how they can do so effectively. This work will

identify all IGOs engaging in climate security

governance since the 1990s, quantitatively map

these

organizations and their governance

responses, explain variation in governance

responses across roughly 50 IGOs in

different policy areas, and identify pathways

to effective climate security governance

through field studies.

Findings on the effectiveness of different

types of governance responses will

contribute to evidence-based policy advice

that will be tested in stakeholder dialogues

conducted by Work Package 5. The results

will also include high-quality data on

governance responses that can be combined

with data from Work Package 2 on global

resource flows in order to understand how

and when these flows are matched with

governance responses.

Taken together, this work is at the forefront

of environmental social science research

and will advance theory on the conditions

under which IGOs can effectively address

climate-induced challenges for human and

state security.

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MISTRA GEOPOLITICS AT COP23: BORDERLESS CLIMATE RISKSBy: Kevin M. Adams, Stockholm Environment Institute

Borderless climate risks have the potential to

severely hamper or completely roll-back

progress made on building resilience through

climate change adaptation. Can they be

addressed in the follow-up of the Paris

Agreement’s global goal on adaptation?

This concern was the convening force

behind the UNFCCC Side Event at COP23

titled: A Global Adaptation Goal and

borderless climate risks: Strengths and limits

of the Paris Agreement. The following are

key insights from the event, co-organised by

Mistra Geopolitics to collaborate with

researchers, practitioners, and policy-makers

both inside and outside the programme.

1. TRANSBOUNDARY AND

TELECONNECTED RISKS

Traditionally, climate risk is closely linked to

the direct impacts of climate change, like

increased flooding, drought, heat waves, or

extreme weather events. Yet, according to

Magnus Benzie, SEI Research Fellow and

Mistra Geopolitics Researcher in Work

Package 2, this view makes several critical

omissions. “By focusing primarily on climate

impacts within national borders, both policy-

makers and researchers have tended to

overlook the ways that climate change in one

part of the world can affect people in

another,” Benzie said.

Climate impacts can flow across borders via

several different ‘pathways.’ These include

shared biophysical flows like shared rivers or

ecosystems, trade flows, financial flows like

investment, and flows of people as patterns

of mobility, migration, and tourism change.

Importantly, these borderless climate risks

do not always occur among neighbours;

transboundary risks may inspire regional

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R e s e a r c h h i g h l i g h t

cooperation when the impacts are localized,

but risk can also be teleconnected, linking

countries and people who are relatively far

away from one another. By considering the

borderless dimensions of climate impacts,

we are presented with a quite different view

of vulnerability to climate change, raising

important questions for the way we adapt,

both nationally and as a global community.

2. ADAPTATION AS A GLOBAL PUBLIC

GOOD

Throughout the conversation, a potent and

recurring example was rice trade between

exporting countries like Thailand, Vietnam

and India, and heavily import-dependent

countries like Senegal. Extreme weather

events that impact rice exporters like

Thailand cause price hikes, which makes

food security in Senegal vulnerable to

climate impacts beyond its own borders.

Taking trade relationships like these as a

focus, Oliver Schenker, from the Frankfurt

School of Finance and Management, argued

that climate adaptation should be considered

a global public good with important benefits

for both importers and exporters.

Using economic modelling, Schenker’s work

suggests that when developing countries

receive adaptation finance and are able to

optimize their adaptation, the benefits are

felt all across the globe. There is a collective

interest in financing adaptation, a statement

strongly seconded by panellists Mizan Khan,

a climate finance negotiator from

Bangladesh, and Maria Banda, who is on the

faculty of law at the University of Toronto.

3. BORDERLESS CLIMATE RISKS UNDER

THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Recognizing the potentially significant role of

borderless climate risks, as well as the

collective interest in addressing them, what

provisions or instruments exist under the

Paris Agreement to help take these into

account? According to Annett Möhner, Team

Lead for the Adaptation Committee at the

UNFCCC Secretariat, National Adaptation

Plans may be one potential avenue for

beginning to identify and assess borderless

climate risks. Some countries have already

begun to do this, though teleconnected risks

are rarely considered. Additionally, as

methodologies are developed for assessing

progress toward the Global Goal on

Adaptation and performing the Global

Stocktake in 2023, there is an opening to

raise awareness about these risks, and think

about how they may be meaningfully

incorporated into stocktaking efforts.

Likewise, as Åsa Persson, Senior Research

Fellow at SEI and Mistra Geopolitics Work

Package 2 Leader noted, addressing

borderless climate risks intersects with

discussions about climate finance, and there

is a need to think carefully about how to

manage these risks while not re-allocating

resources away from countries vulnerable to

direct climate impacts. Dustin Schinn,

Climate Change Specialist at the Global

Environmental Facility (GEF), agreed, and

suggested that countries needed to be in the

“driver’s seat” for addressing borderless

climate risks, and should be supported by

finance and global coordination.

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4. NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN

Given the country-driven nature of the Paris

Agreement, it is also important to consider

that the UNFCCC may not be the only venue

for capturing and addressing borderless

climate risks. Despite Senegal’s interest in

bolstering Thai rice production, adaptation

must be country-driven and Thailand may

rightly choose to focus on other adaptation

priorities of national importance.

Rebecca Nadin, head of the Risk and

Resilience Programme at the Overseas

Development Institute (ODI), suggested that

there is the potential to learn from other UN

conventions like the UN Convention to

Combat Desertification or the UN

Convention on Biological Diversity, or to

mainstream climate considerations into the

multitude of existing water resources

treaties. Similarly, Sara Venturini, Policy

Analyst at Acclimatise, argued that trade

agencies, financial institutions, and private

sector actors may have a substantial role to

play in this regard, especially given their

high capacities for complex risk assessment.

5. RESEARCH FOR THE FUTURE OF

BORDERLESS CLIMATE ADAPTATION

Moving forward, there is a strong call for

more knowledge and research in this area

from policymakers and academics alike. It is

especially necessary to develop

methodologies, indicators, and indices to

raise awareness about the potentially

significant impacts of borderless climate

risks, especially those that are

teleconnected. Strong calls were made to

produce specific case-studies, as well as to

develop meta-analyses that locate

commonalities, help to identify best-

practices, and foster collaboration.

This sentiment is perhaps best captured by

John Firth, CEO at Acclimatise, who during

the panel discussion remarked: “climate

change has caused us to embark on a

complex experiment that we do not entirely

understand. New teleconnections may arise

as we continue to grapple with how we

should adapt to our changing world – work in

this area will need to be iterative and

ongoing.”

RIGHT:Borderless climate risks are distributed heterogeneously around the globe

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HOW DO WE WORK? Mistra Geopolitics is an interdisciplinary research programme which brings

together researchers from different fields of expertise to combine their intellectual

skills. This is an effective, and sometimes challenging approach, but necessary

when it comes to understanding the complex world we live in. The programme

comprises five interrelated work packages (WPs).


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W o r k P a c k a g e 1

GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY IN THE ANTHROPOCENE H O W D O E S O U R U N D E R S T A N D I N G O F S E C U R I T Y S H I F T I N T H E A N T H R O P O C E N E ?

W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R

The first work package sets the frame for an inquiry into the relationships between geopolitics

and sustainable development. It investigates how political drivers, risks and security threats of

global environmental change are construed today, and what the implications are for our

understanding of security and geopolitics. This work package also involves future prospects,

which will be explored through stakeholder dialogues.

Malin Mobjörk is a Senior Researcher and Director of SIPRI’s

Climate Change and Risk Programme. Malin’s work focuses on

the intersection of climate change, security and development and

how policy organizations are responding to climate-related

security risks.

MALIN MOBJÖRK

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R e s e a r c h e r s

O N G O I N G R E S E A R C H

K e y P u b l i c a t i o n

CAMILLA BORN EVA LÖVBRAND

DAN SMITH JIAYI ZHOU

S E N I O R P O L I C Y A D V I S O R I N E 3 G ' S C L I M A T E D I P L O M A C Y T E A M

D I R E C T O R O F S I P R I R E S E A R C H E R A T S I P R I A N D P H D S T U D E N T I N T H E M A T I C S T U D I E S A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y

A S S O C I A T E P R O F E S S O R O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y

Zhou, J. (2017). National Climate-Related Security Policies

of the Permanent Member States of the United Nations

Security Council. SIPRI Working Paper.

ANTHROPOCENE MEETS POLICY:

TRAVELLING NOTIONS OF

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK AND SECURITY

How is the Anthropocene staged as a

geopolitical drama in the study and practice

of international politics? Researchers Malin

Mobjörk and Eva Lövbrand have set out to

address this question as part of work

package one and presented preliminary

findings from a forthcoming paper at this

year's annual conference. Their work draws

inspiration from the field of

critical geopolitics, which suggests that

geopolitics itself is a discursive practice in

which the analytical frames employed by

intellectuals and practitioners are of central

importance. This particular study utilizes an

extensive review of the scholarly and policy

literatures, in the hopes of comparing the

ways that the Anthropocene is invoked in

each body of work. Ultimately, this paper

hopes to better understand how the

Anthropocene contributes to the production

and practice of international politics.

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IMPACT PATHWAYS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXTW H A T A R E T H E M A I N I N D I R E C T C L I M A T E E F F E C T S F O R S W E D E N ?


Work Package 2 analyses the magnitude and kind of transnational impacts a small export dependent

country like Sweden is likely to face, as well as how this translates into risks and opportunities. The

research focuses on broadening our approach to climate impacts, in particular by focusing on three

pathways: trade of goods and services, people (specifically migration), and armed conflicts.

Åsa Persson is a senior research fellow at SEI. Her research

interests include environmental policy-making processes in

Sweden and Europe, global environmental governance in relation

to climate change adaptation, and the notion of planetary

boundaries. In 2018, Åsa will serve as Programme Co-Director.

Magnus Benzie will replace her as Work Package leader.

ÅSA PERSSON

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MAGNUS BENZIE

DENNIS TÄNZLER NINA VON UEXKÜLL

2 0 1 8 W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R ; R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I

A S S I S T A N T P R O F E S S O R I N P E A C E A N D C O N F L I C T R E S E A R C H A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y

D I R E C T O R O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L C L I M A T E P O L I C Y A T A D E L P H I

Hall, N., and Persson, Å. (2017). Global Climate

Adaptation Governance: Why is it not Legally

Binding? European Journal of International Relations.

CHANGING LANDSCAPES:

CONCEPTUALISING THE GEOPOLITICS

OF DECARBONISATION

Decarbonisation is not a linear process, but

rather can be disruptive and contested.

Understanding this fraught transition is one

aim of adelphi's Dennis Tänzler's research,

who argues that achieving a just transition

will involve complex negotiations and trade-

offs between multiple objectives. With this

backdrop, Tänzler's team is working to

identify "smooth," "challenging," and "fragile"

transformers in order to support

decarbonisation across a diversity of geopolitical

contexts, accounting for exposure to climate

risks, the potential for energy diversification, and

the level of policy ambition.

Building on this work, the research team hopes

next to select case study countries in which to

explore potential future trends under ambitious

climate action scenarios and business-as-usual

approaches. This will help to identify proactive

foreign policy approaches that can the European

Union maximise synergies and contain risks as

we approach 2030.

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JOAKIM PALME

P R O F E S S O R I N G O V E R N M E N T A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y


GOVERNANCE RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL RELATED SECURITY RISKSH O W D O W E G O F R O M C L I M A T E C H A N G E T O P O L I T I C A L C H A N G E ?


This work package examines how, why, and with what consequences global governance systems

are able to respond to processes of geopolitics and environmental degradation, and the

conditions under which these responses are legitimate and effective. Until now, relatively little has

been understood about how political institutions relate to policy changes that concern sustainable

development, security, and welfare.

LISA DELLMUTH

Lisa Dellmuth is an Associate Professor of International Relations at

the Department of Economic History and International Relations, at

Stockholm University. Her research focuses on fiscal policy, economic

inequality, and public opinion; legitimacy in global governance; and

global climate security governance.

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KARIN BÄCKSTRAND ANDREAS DUIT

MARIA-THERESE GUSTAFSSON

ECE KURAL SANNA LUNDQUIST P H D S T U D E N T I N I N T E R N A T I O N A L R E L A T I O N S A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y

P R O F E S S O R I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y

P O S T D O C T O R A L R E S E A R C H E R I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y

P H D S T U D E N T I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y

P R O F E S S O R I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y

Dellmuth, L.M., et al. (2017). Intergovernmental

Organizations and Climate Security Challenges: Implications

for Academic Research and Policymaking. SIPRI Fact Sheet.

THE LIMITS OF CIVIL SOCIETY:

ECOLOGICAL FACTORS, POLITICS, AND

PARTICIPATION IN REGIONAL FISHERIES

MANAGEMENT ORGANISATIONS

While a large literature in environmental

social science suggests that higher levels of

environmental degradation lead to greater

participation among civil society actors (CSOs)

in international fisheries management, new

work by Lisa Dellmuth and colleagues suggests

that this may not be the case. Using a statistical

analysis that spans nine international fisheries

management organizations, this work explores

alternative explanations for CSO participation.

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ANTON AHLÉN P H D S T U D E N T I N G O V E R N M E N T A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y


THE INTER-RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPES AND THE SDGSW H A T A R E T H E C O N S E Q U E N C E S O F A C H I E V I N G T H E 2 0 3 0 A G E N D A ?


Work Package 4 focuses on how resource dynamics and geopolitical interests affect strategies for

sustainable development and how these strategies may in turn impact the geopolitical arena. By analysing

relationships between the various goals in the 2030 Agenda, we will deepen our understanding of the

synergies and conflicts embedded within our pursuit of sustainable development across the globe.

Bengt Johansson is a senior lecturer in Environmental and Energy

Systems studies at Lund University. His research deals with the

transformation of the energy system, with a specific focus on how

energy and climate policies affect this transformation.

BENGT JOHANSSON

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HENRIK CARLSEN

ANDRÉ MÅNBERGER

HÅVARD HEGRE

NINA WEITZ

S E N I O R R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I

P R O F E S S O R I N P E A C E A N D C O N F L I C T R E S E A R C H A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y

R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I

A S S O C I A T E S E N I O R L E C T U R E R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L A N D E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S A T L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y

Weitz, N., Carlsen, H., Nilsson, M. and Skånberg, K. (2017).

Towards Systemic and Contextual Priority Setting for

Implementing the 2030 Agenda. Sustainability Science, 1–18.

GLOBAL METAL FLOWS IN THE

RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION

The transition to sustainable societies will

require significant amounts of metals and

other key materials to produce new critical

technologies. In this study, André Månberger

and colleagues find that while the reserves

of 11 key metals are sufficient to support the

needed development of solar and wind

power, as well as electric motors, other sub-

technologies may be stifled and alternatives

required. Metal accessibility is likely to

constrain the growth rate of certain

technologies and can be difficult to increase.

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BJÖRN-OLA LINNÉR

P R O F E S S O R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y

MARIA JERNNÄS

P H D S T U D E N T I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y


FORESIGHT: SWEDEN IN A CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPEW H A T A R E T H E O P P O R T U N I T I E S A N D R I S K S F O R S W E D I S H A C T O R S ?


The fifth work package will bring together research from the other work packages in an iterative co-

creation process involving project stakeholders and seek answers to the key questions of the

programme. It will provide opportunities to discuss innovation and business development as ways

to strengthen Sweden’s competitiveness. The co-creation process will include developing

“explorative” scenarios of possible alternative futures, which will serve as the basis for analysing

options and identifying strategies.

Victoria Wibeck is a Professor in Thematic Studies at Linköping

University. The aim of her research is to analyze the challenges

and opportunities associated with new and emerging

technologies, as information moves from the scientific arena and

is recontextualised in political decisions, media, and the everyday

lives of citizens.

VICTORIA WIBECK

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KEVIN ADAMS KARL HALLDING

TIM SULJADA

TINA NESET

KARIN ELIASSON P O L I C Y A N A L Y S T A N D P R O J E C T M A N A G E R A T S E I

R E S E A R C H A S S O C I A T E A T S E I

S E N I O R R E S E A R C H E R I N T H E M A T I C S T U D I E S A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y

P H D S T U D E N T I N T H E M A T I C S T U D I E S A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y


Carlsen, H., Klein, R. J. T. and Wikman-Svahn, P.

(2017). Transparent Scenario Development. Nature Climate

Change, 7(9).

PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE FIRST

ROUND OF MISTRA GEOPOLITICS

FOCUS GROUPS

Given the centrality of the co-creation

process to Mistra Geopolitics, one key aim of

the research programme is to understand

the opportunities and challenges percieved

by Swedish actors as they navigate the current

geopolitical context to pursue sustainable

development. The rich results from stakeholder

focus groups will help to inform the

development of the explorative scenarios, as

well as influence the direction of other research

activities ongoing across the programme.

21

ERIC KEMP-BENEDICT S E N I O R S C I E N T I S T A T S E I

The greatest asset of Mistra Geopolitics is the internationally-renowned team of experts

that make the programme work. The Mistra Geopolitics management team, supported by

the Board, are responsible for facilitating the programme’s widespread success, built on

the hard work, critical analysis, and innovation of work package leaders, researchers,

and programme partners.

Mistra Geopolitics combines theory testing and development with a co-creation

approach, where a variety of stakeholders from public, private and civil society sectors

are actively involved to improve the research design and ensure that theoretical

perspectives as well as empirical research are relevant for the people who translate

them into policy and action.

WHO ARE WE?


R e s e a r c h s c h o o l

Mistra Geopolitics includes a Research School in order to train the next generation of scholars in methods,

theories, and data collection for advanced analysis of geopolitics and sustainable development. It includes

doctoral students enrolled in the Mistra Geopolitics programme, as well as external graduate students,

including 3 PhD students from partner countries in the Global South. The Research School constitutes a

meeting point where doctoral students, researchers and the scientific advisory board interact.

22

B O A R D

CHAIR OF THE BOARD

LENA EK

C H A I R O F S Ö D R A , S W E D E N ’ S L A R G E S T F O R E S T - O W N E R A S S O C I A T I O N . S H E A L S O S E R V E D A S M I N I S T E R F O R T H E E N V I R O N M E N T F R O M 2 0 1 1 T O 2 0 1 4 .

HALA MOHAMMED

V I C E C H A I R O F T H E S W E D I S H R E D C R O S S

BOARD MEMBERS

CAROLINE ANKARCONA

P R O J E C T M A N A G E R A T T H E R O Y A L S W E D I S H A C A D E M Y O F E N G I N E E R I N G S C I E N C E S

ANNIKA MARKOVIC

P E R M A N E N T R E P R E S E N T A T I V E O F S W E D E N T O T H E O E C D A N D U N E S C O .

ROBERT EGNELL

H E A D O F D E P A R T M E N T F O R S E C U R I T Y , S T R A T E G Y A N D L E A D E R S H I P A T T H E S W E D I S H D E F E N S E U N I V E R S I T Y .

23

PROGRAMME DIRECTOR

m a n a g e m e n t t e a m

BJÖRN-OLA LINNÉR

P R O F E S S O R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y

CO-DIRECTORS

KARL HALLDING


ÅSA PERSSON

2 0 1 8 C O - D I R E C T O R ; S E N I O R R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I

EVA LÖVBRAND

A S S O C I A T E P R O F E S S O R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y

24

COMMUNICATIONS

EVA KRUTMEIJER

C O M M U N I C A T I O N S L E A D ; S E N I O R C O M M U N I C A T I O N A D V I S O R A N D S C I E N C E C O M M U N I C A T O R , F O U N D E R O F E K K O A B , S T O C K H O L M

BRENDA OCHOLA

C O M M U N I C A T I O N O F F I C E R A T S E I

P R O G R A M M E M A N A G E R ; P O L I C Y A N A L Y S T A N D P R O J E C T M A N A G E R A T S E I

TIM SULJADA

PROGRAMME MANAGER

A S S I S T A N T P R O G R A M M E M A N A G E R ; R E S E A R C H A S S O C I A T E A T S E I

KEVIN ADAMS

m a n a g e m e n t t e a m

25

K E Y O U T P U T S P A R T N E R S

RESEARCH PARTNERS

STAKEHOLDER PARTNERS

26

R E V E N U E S

Management 37%

Communication 7%

WP1 4%

WP2 6%

WP3 14%

WP4 17%

WP5 15%

2 0 1 7 f i n a n c i a l s u m m a r y

M I S T R A

T O T A L R E V E N U E S

C O - F U N D I N G F R O M P R O G R A M M E P A R T N E R S

5 7 4 9 3 2 4 S E K

1 4 0 8 2 3 3 S E K 7 1 5 7 5 5 7 S E K

E X P E N D I T U R E S A L A R I E S

T R A V E L

4 8 8 8 5 8 4 S E K

2 7 0 8 9 S E K

1 1 3 7 2 1 S E K

4 6 0 5 0 9 S E K

2 3 8 7 5 8 S E K

C O N S U M A B L E S

O T H E R D I R E C T C O S T S

P U R C H A S E D S E R V I C E S

I N D I R E C T C O S T S 1 3 8 3 8 9 6 S E K 7 1 5 7 5 5 7 S E K T O T A L E X P E N D I T U R E

C A S H F L O W O P E N I N G B A L A N C E

D I S B U R S E M E N T S F R O M M I S T R A

0 S E K

- 7 1 5 7 5 5 7 S E K

1 0 2 9 2 9 2 5 S E K C O - F U N D I N G F R O M P R O G R A M M E P A R T N E R S 1 4 0 8 2 3 3 S E K P R O G R A M M E E X P E N D I T U R E

4 5 4 3 6 0 1 S E K C L O S I N G B A L A N C E

E X P E N D I T U R E B Y W P

27

K E Y O U T P U T S

E V E N T S E V E N T T I T L E D A T E R O L E W P

S T O C K H O L M F O R U M O N P E A C E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T 0 3 - 0 4 M A Y 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D W P 1

S T A C Y D . V A N D E V E E R L E C T U R E : C L I M A T E P O L I T I C S A F T E R P A R I S A N D U N D E R T R U M P

1 0 M A Y 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

C L I M A T E A D A P T A T I O N G O V E R N A N C E W O R K S H O P 2 2 - 2 4 M A Y 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

E U G L O B A L C O N F L I C T R I S K I N D E X W O R K S H O P 3 1 M A Y 1 7 P A R T I C I P A T E D W P 2

L O N G - T E R M S T R A T E G I C A N A L Y S I S K I C K - O F F M E E T I N G

0 7 J U N 1 7 P A R T I C I P A T E D

U N I T E D N A T I O N S S E C U R I T Y C O U N C I L R E F E R E N C E G R O U P

0 9 J U N 1 7 P A R T I C I P A T E D

2 7 J U N 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D H I G H - L E V E L S E M I N A R I N B E I J I N G

C A R B O N D R A W D O W N P O L I C Y W O R K S H O P 0 8 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D

S W E D I S H R A D I O “ K L O T E T ” O N E U - C H I N A C L I M A T E R E L A T I O N S

1 8 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D

S W E D I S H E N V I R O N M E N T A L P R O T E C T I O N A G E N C Y 2 1 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D

P A R T I C I P A T O R Y S C E N A R I O S S E M I N A R F O R V Ä S T R A G Ö T A L A N D C O U N T Y A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

3 1 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 5

W O R L D S E C U R I T Y I S S U E S J O I N T R O U N D T A B L E 0 4 S E P 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D W P 1 ; W P 3

I N D I R E C T I N T E R N A T I O N A L I M P A C T S O F C L I M A T E C H A N G E O N S W I T Z E R L A N D

2 6 S E P 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 2

S I M O N D A L B Y D I S T I N G U I S H E D L E C T U R E 1 2 O C T 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

T E C H N O L O G I C A L D E V E L O P M E N T , G E O P O L I T I C A L A N D E N V I R O N M E N T A L I S S U E S I N O U R E N E R G Y F U T U R E

2 4 O C T 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 1

T H E F U T U R E O F T H E P A R I S C L I M A T E A G R E E M E N T 0 3 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

W P 2

S E C U R I T Y I M P L I C A T I O N S O F C L I M A T E C H A N G E – H I G H L E V E L D I P L O M A T I C F O R U M

0 8 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 2

W P 2 A G L O B A L A D A P T A T I O N G O A L A N D B O R D E R L E S S C L I M A T E R I S K S : C O P 2 3 S I D E E V E N T

1 5 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

O U T C O M E S F R O M C O P 2 3 I N T E R V I E W 1 6 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D



S W E D I S H T E L E V I S I O N ’ S S C I E N C E S T U D I O 2 0 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D

W P 2

2 8 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D L E G I T I M A C Y A N D A C C O U N T A B I L I T Y O F P O L Y C E N T R I C C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E

I N D I G E N O U S E N V I R O N M E N T A L G O V E R N A N C E C O N F E R E N C E

2 9 - 3 0 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

M I G R A T I O N S E M I N A R W I T H R A I N E R M Ü N Z 2 9 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

D A V I D V S . G O L I A T H 2 . 0 S E M I N A R W I T H O E C D 0 6 D E C 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D

P L A N E T A R Y S E C U R I T Y C O N F E R E N C E 2 0 1 7 1 2 - 1 3 D E C 1 7 P R E S E N T E D

W P 3

W P 3

28

K E Y O U T P U T S p u b l i c a t i o n s

F U L L C I T A T I O N

A D A M S , K . M . ( 2 0 1 7 , D E C E M B E R 1 2 ) . T H E H O L Y G R A I L O F C L I M A T E P O L I C Y ? [ B L O G P O S T ] . R E T R I E V E D F R O M : H T T P : / / W W W . M I S T R A - G E O P O L I T I C S . S E / C O M M E N T S - I N S I G H T S / T H E - H O L Y - G R A I L - O F - C L I M A T E - P O L I C Y /

A D A M S , K . M . ( 2 0 1 7 , D E C E M B E R 1 8 ) . R E S I L I E N C E B U I L D I N G A T R I S K ? F I V E K E Y I N S I G H T S F O R A D D R E S S I N G B O R D E R L E S S C L I M A T E R I S K S [ B L O G P O S T ] . R E T R I E V E D F R O M : H T T P : / / W W W . M I S T R A - G E O P O L I T I C S . S E / C O M M E N T S - I N S I G H T S / R E S I L I E N C E - B U I L D I N G - A T - R I S K - F I V E - K E Y - I N S I G H T S - F O R - A D D R E S S I N G - B O R D E R L E S S - C L I M A T E - R I S K S /B Ä C K S T R A N D , K . A N D K U Y P E R , J . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . T H E D E M O C R A T I C L E G I T I M A C Y O F O R C H E S T R A T I O N : T H E U N F C C C , N O N - S T A T E A C T O R S A N D T R A N S N A T I O N A L C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E . E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I T I C S 2 6 ( 4 ) : 7 6 4 - 7 6 8 .

B Ä C K S T R A N D , K . , K U Y P E R , J . , L I N N É R , B . O . , A N D L Ö V B R A N D , E . ( E D S ) . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . N O N - S T A T E A C T O R S I N G L O B A L C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E : F R O M C O P E N H A G E N T O P A R I S A N D B E Y O N D . S P E C I A L I S S U E , E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I T I C S 2 6 ( 4 ) : 5 6 1 - 5 7 9 .

C A R L S E N , H . , K L E I N , R . J . T . A N D W I K M A N - S V A H N , P . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . T R A N S P A R E N T S C E N A R I O D E V E L O P M E N T . N A T U R E C L I M A T E C H A N G E , 7 ( 9 ) .

D E L L M U T H , L . M . , G U S T A F S S O N , M . T . , B R E M B E R G , N . , A N D M O B J Ö R K , M . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . I N T E R G O V E R N M E N T A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N S A N D C L I M A T E S E C U R I T Y C H A L L E N G E S : I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R A C A D E M I C R E S E A R C H A N D P O L I C Y M A K I N G . S I P R I F A C T S H E E T .

D E L L M U T H , L . M . , G U S T A F S S O N , M . T . , B R E M B E R G , N . , A N D M O B J Ö R K , M . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . I N T E R G O V E R N M E N T A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N S A N D C L I M A T E S E C U R I T Y : A D V A N C I N G T H E R E S E A R C H A G E N D A . W I L E Y I N T E R D I S C I P L I N A R Y R E V I E W S : C L I M A T E C H A N G E , E 4 9 6 .

H A L L , N . , A N D P E R S S O N , Å . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . G L O B A L C L I M A T E A D A P T A T I O N G O V E R N A N C E : W H Y I S I T N O T L E G A L L Y B I N D I N G ? E U R O P E A N J O U R N A L O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L R E L A T I O N S , 1 3 5 4 0 6 6 1 1 7 7 2 5 1 5 7 .

J E R N N Ä S , M . , A N D L I N N É R , B . O . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . H O M O G E N E I T Y O R D I F F R A C T I O N ? A D I S C U R S I V E C A R T O G R A P H Y O F T H E P O S T - P A R I S P O L I C Y L A N D S C A P E . E A R T H S Y S T E M S G O V E R N A N C E C O N F E R E N C E 2 0 1 7 .

L Ö V B R A N D , E . , H J E R P E M . , A N D L I N N É R , B . O . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . M A K I N G G L O B A L C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E G L O B A L . H O W U N G L O B A L C L I M A T E S U M M I T R Y C O M E S T O M A T T E R I N A C O M P L E X C L I M A T E R E G I M E , E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I T I C S 2 6 ( 4 ) : 5 8 0 - 5 9 9 .

N I L S S O N , M . , A N D P E R S S O N , Å . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . P O L I C Y N O T E : L E S S O N S F R O M E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I C Y I N T E G R A T I O N F O R T H E I M P L E M E N T A T I O N O F T H E 2 0 3 0 A G E N D A . E N V I R O N M E N T A L S C I E N C E & P O L I C Y , 7 8 , 3 6 - 3 9 .

S T O C K H O L M E N V I R O N M E N T I N S T I T U T E . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . M I S T R A G E O P O L I T I C S : S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y , S T A B I L I T Y , A N D C O M P E T I T I V E N E S S F O R S W E D E N I N T H E A N T H R O P O C E N E . S E I F A C T S H E E T .

W E I T Z , N . , C A R L S E N , H . , N I L S S O N , M . A N D S K Å N B E R G , K . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . T O W A R D S S Y S T E M I C A N D C O N T E X T U A L P R I O R I T Y S E T T I N G F O R I M P L E M E N T I N G T H E 2 0 3 0 A G E N D A . S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y S C I E N C E , 1 – 1 8 .

Z H O U , J . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . N A T I O N A L C L I M A T E - R E L A T E D S E C U R I T Y P O L I C I E S O F T H E P E R M A N E N T M E M B E R S T A T E S O F T H E U N I T E D N A T I O N S S E C U R I T Y C O U N C I L . S I P R I W O R K I N G P A P E R .

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M I S T R A G E O P O L I T I C S L I N N É G A T A N 8 7 D S E - 1 1 5 2 3 S T O C K H O L M + 4 6 8 3 0 8 0 4 4 I N F O @ M I S T R A G E O P O L I T I C S . O R G

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