Mitigation of air pollution and climate change in China

Workshop in Oslo 17 – 19 October 2004Financial support by

The Research Council of Norway &

Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Robert Angus Smith Our forerunner from the 19th century

The injury thus done to trees, hedges, crops and pasturage is enormous, in addition to the mischief inflicted upon human health and comfort…………Dr. Smith’s investigations show that it is not only possible to reduce these exhalations, but actually economical to do so.

Noxious vapours affect vegetation along the river Tyne, 1875

ESF EXPLORATORY WORKSHOP (co-sponsored by the Research Council of ESF EXPLORATORY WORKSHOP (co-sponsored by the Research Council of Norway and the Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation):Norway and the Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation):

Atmospheric pollution effects on local, regional and global scales – an Atmospheric pollution effects on local, regional and global scales – an integrated approach.integrated approach.

Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, September 26 – 28, 2002 Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, September 26 – 28, 2002

Organizers: Organizers: Hans Martin Seip (Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo & Center Hans Martin Seip (Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo & Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)Kristin Aunan (CICERO)Kristin Aunan (CICERO)Haakon Vennemo (ECON Centre for Economic Analysis)Haakon Vennemo (ECON Centre for Economic Analysis)

Impacts of various substances emitted to airClimate

changeTransboundary Local air pollution

Acidifi-cation

Tropo-shericozone

Health Vegetation Materials

CO2

CH4

N2O

SO2Sec. part.

NOx Sec. part. Ozone Ozone

NH3Sec. part.

NMVOC Ozone Ozone

CO

PM ?

Some measures and their effects

Type of measure Local/ Regional

Global (Climate)

Removal of SO2 and/or particles + ( ) Removal of black carbon emissions + + Change to unleaded gasoline + Fuel substitution: Coal Oil Gas

+ +

Increased energy efficiency + + Renewable energy- biomass ( ) + Renewable energy- sun/wind/wave + + CO2 deposition +

From the report from the 2002 workshop: Exposure estimates

Improvements are necessary on all scales - from indoor to regional; importance of site and height of emission should be emphasized.

Dose-response relationships Includes effects on humans, vegetation and materials. There

is a particular lack of information from developing countries. Effects of particles, including black carbon, both as part of the

climate system and as air pollutant, are particularly important. Valuation

Valuation of health effects and natural ecosystems should be focused.

Willingness-to-pay studies in developing countries are highly needed.

There is a need for improved knowledge in a number of areas, including:

To what extent are the results of our work implemented? How to increase penetration of results in policy and industry?

Local Pollution and Climate: the Importance of Co-

benefitsBeijing, November 13th – 14th, 2003 Organized by:

PRCEE ( Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy, State Environmental Protection Administration, China).

ECON (Center for Economic Analysis, Norway), and

CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Norway).

Some conclusions from the Beijing workshop Co-benefits for China are very significant and not to be

ignored. Environmental improvement, as well as energy saving

and new and renewable energy development, should be put into the priority list for GHG-reduction in China.

China should support CDM stronger with consideration of co-benefits.

China should have more active air pollution programs and ecological restoration programs with consideration of co-benefits.

GEF as well as other multilateral funding mechanisms should pay non-Annex I countries’ for GHG reductions, at least cover the incremental costs.

Countries’ emission baselines should be adjusted taking co-benefits into consideration.

Mitigation of air pollution and climate change in China Goal: Elucidate advantages (and problems)

in considering mitigation of air pollution and climate change in an integrated way through discussing results in two important research areas in an interdisciplinary forum.

Two topics will be included: Emissions from the household sector affecting

climate and possible co-benefits. Environmental impacts in a macro-economic

setting.

Why focus China?

Energy (commercial) consumption in China 1965 -

2003

China is the country with the largest CO2 emissions after the USA.Per capita emissions about 1/7 of those in the USA

Energy sources 2003Energy sources 2003

Energy (Mtoe)

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

1400,0

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

gas3 %

coal68 %

oil23 %

hydro5 %

nuclear1 %

Bjørn Lomborg:

Copenhagen consensus

The goal of the Copenhagen Consensus project was to set priorities among a series of proposals for confronting ten great global challenges.

The Skeptical EnvironmentalistMeasuring the real state of the world

Bjørn Lomborg: Copenhagen consensus

Very Good 1 Diseases: Control of HIV/AIDS 2 Malnutrition: Providing micro nutrients 3 Subsidies and Trade:Trade liberalisation 4 Diseases: Control of malaria

Bad 14 Migration: Guest worker programmes for the unskilled 15 Climate: Optimal carbon tax 16 Climate: The Kyoto Protocol 17 Climate: Value-at-risk carbon tax

Gaia: Organisms and their environment evolve as a single, self-regulating system.

James LovelockNature, 426 (2003), 769-770

Perhaps its [Gaia’s] value lies in its metaphor of a living earth. Which reminds us that we are part of it and that human rights are constrained by the needs of our planetary partners.