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Mitos de China

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Mitos de China. Ing. Ignacio J. Vázquez Elliott Centro de Comercio Detallista ITESM, CSN. Cortesía de: www.symbio-group.com. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIED OPPORTUNITIES FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD. “SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN A GLOBALISING WORLD”. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIED. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Mitos de China Mitos de China Cortesía de: www.symbio-group.com Ing. Ignacio J. Vázquez Elliott Centro de Comercio Detallista ITESM, CSN
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Page 1: Mitos de China

Mitos de ChinaMitos de China

Cortesía de:www.symbio-group.com

Ing. Ignacio J. Vázquez ElliottCentro de Comercio DetallistaITESM, CSN

Page 2: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

““SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN

A GLOBALISING WORLD”A GLOBALISING WORLD”

1.1. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

2.2. OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

3.3. FORTUNE FAVORS THFORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLDE BOLD

Page 3: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

“There is this idea that China is incomprehensible.

This is something the Chinese encourage. Chinese people like to think of themselves as being completely different to everywhere else.” -Adam Williams, Chief Representative, Jardine Matheson ; novelist, Sunday Morning Post. H.K.

10/26/2003

Page 4: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

1.1. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

• Social MythsSocial Myths

• Political MythsPolitical Myths

• Economic Economic MythsMyths

Page 5: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Social Myth #1Social Myth #1

““A phoenix rising”: China is a new eA phoenix rising”: China is a new emerging superpowermerging superpower

Page 6: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Social Myth #1: Social Myth #1: “A phoenix rising”: Ch“A phoenix rising”: China is a new emerging “superpower”ina is a new emerging “superpower”

The Real Story:The Real Story:

Historically a “superpower” nation

Long civilization

• Robust recorded history

• Most families can trace roots back 800 years

The Great Divergence: Western Europe and China “China is a much richer country than any part of Europe,”

-Adam Smith , “The Wealth of Nations” , 1776

Page 7: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China has historically been a “superpower” China has historically been a “superpower” nation in the worldnation in the world

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

100 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1978 2000

China Europe/US Others

- Deutsche Bank Based on US $ of 1990

China’s GDP as % of the world, dominant in 90% of the last 2000 years The entire world economic or

der was – literally – Sinocentr

ic until the 18th century. Chri

stopher Columbus and after

him many Europeans up until

Adam Smith knew that.

China’s balance of trade and

payments surplus continued i

nto the early 19th century.

-Andre Gunder Frank, Global Economy in the Asian Age,University of California Press, 1998

Year, AD

Page 8: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China has a long civilizationChina has a long civilization

Did you know… The Xia Dynasty began in the 2200 BC and has an

extensive and well-documented history

The Qing Emperor united 7 existing countries, written languages, currency, roads in 221 BC

China printed books several hundred years before the Gutenberg Bible

Chinese landscape paintings emerged as a form of art several hundred years ahead of Europe

“China is essentially a country of history and culture”

“Chinese civilization… has remained recognizably the same in essentials and

is thus the oldest continuous, major culture in the world today.” - W. Scott Morton “China, Its History and Culture”,1995

Page 9: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China has a robust recorded historyChina has a robust recorded history

“Details of life in the second millennium B.C., conversations of the sixth centur

y B.C., and letters of the first century A.D. and the like have been preserved, an

d thousands and thousands of local gazetteers about local conditions have bee

n published by prefectures and counties for centuries.”- Wing-tsit Chan, Professor of Chinese Philosophy and Culture Emeritus, Dartmouth College,1995

Written language “Oracle” used 20th~15th century B.C.

Page 10: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

But in the 16But in the 16thth century, China and the West too century, China and the West took two very different coursesk two very different courses

Industrial Revolution

Religious reform

Renaissance

Emergence of the US

Starting in 1434, Ming empire halted the great maritime expansion

Ching Emperor made “craftsman” and “merchant” the lowest professions for Chinese citizens

Ching Emperor told King George III that China had “no use for your country’s manufactures”

While the West experienced…

…China went the other way and shut its door to the outside world

“The ancient Chinese ship sailed off the course of the world’s mainstream of wealth” - Hu Yung, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2003

Page 11: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Social Myth #2Social Myth #2

““Everyone looks alike”: China has Everyone looks alike”: China has a homogeneous culturea homogeneous culture

Page 12: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Social Myth #2: “Social Myth #2: “Everyone looks alikeEveryone looks alike”: China’s culture is homogeneous”: China’s culture is homogeneous The Real Story:The Real Story:

Multiple ethnicities, religions and philosophies

• The Chinese Union

• Country that shares the most borders

• Middle Kingdom as a melting pot As early as three thousand years ago, Hebraic and Iranian religions ideas

are practices traveled eastwards on the Silk Road, to be followed centuries

later by the great missionary tradition of Buddhism, Christianity,

Manichaeism, and Islam. And no religion emerged unchanged at the end of

the journey.

-Richard C. Foltz, “Religions of the Silk Road”, 1999

Page 13: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China officially has 56 nationalitiesChina officially has 56 nationalities

Page 14: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China shares its borders with the most China shares its borders with the most countriescountries

Page 15: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

1.1. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

• Social Myths Social Myths

• Political MythsPolitical Myths

• Economic Economic MythsMyths

Page 16: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Political Myth #1Political Myth #1

““The East is Red”: China is a rigid The East is Red”: China is a rigid communist statecommunist state

Page 17: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Political Myth #1: Political Myth #1: “The East is Red”: “The East is Red”: China is a rigid communist stateChina is a rigid communist state

The Real Story:The Real Story:

“Socialist Market Economy with Chinese characteristics”: China has a special system

• Communism is a localized Western import

• China has deep roots in Confucianism

Reforms: “Black or white, a cat that can catch mouse is a good cat” – Deng Xiaoping

• Economic, political and social reforms are taking hold

Page 18: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

“China today is affected in a special way by the West because its Communist ideology is rooted in the French Revolution, in the labors of Karl Marx writing in the British Museum in London, and in the blood of Russian Revolution.

“Communism is, to begin with, a Western product.”

- W. Scott Morton “China, Its History and Culture”,1995

China is not a traditional “communist” China is not a traditional “communist” countrycountry

Page 19: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Part of the national consciousness of the Chinese

The chief virtues are:

• Courtesy

• Tolerance

• Good faith

• Diligence

• Moderation

• Kindness

• Bravery

• Filial piety

China’s system is heavily influenced by China’s system is heavily influenced by Confucian valuesConfucian values

Page 20: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

“Because of communism and Confucian beliefs in educati

on, China has a better educated population than anyone e

lse in the developing world.

China’s advantages are many. Communism and a Confuc

ian culture have reinforced each other’s interest in educat

ion.

China is both better educated and more broadly educated.

-Lester Thurow, “Fortune favors the bold, what we must do to build a new and lasting global prosperity”,

HarperBusiness 2003

China’s system is a unique blend of Eastern China’s system is a unique blend of Eastern and Western valuesand Western values

Page 21: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Contribution to GDP by SOEs

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1998

1978

% of GDP

Changing economic mix

Less reliance on state-owned enterprises

Greater emphasis on private enterprises

China economy is moving from being China economy is moving from being centrally planned, to market-drivencentrally planned, to market-driven

Page 22: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Transformation of government functions to separate enterprise operations

Government by laws

• Enhance legislative functions

• Enforce law with power

• Independent supervision of law enforcement

China is gradually introducing limited democratic reforms

• Party officials have been encouraged to debate and even critique the work of top leaders

• Multi-candidate elections, though, are held only in villages

China is reforming politically, including China is reforming politically, including experimenting with democratic principlesexperimenting with democratic principles

Page 23: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Real GDP has grown an average 9.4 percent a year

since 1979. China’s growth performance stands out against the

enormous structural transformations and external

challenges.

Using the official poverty line, the number of poor

people is estimated to have fallen from about 200

million 1981 to 34 million in 1999. Using the World Bank’s $1/day consumption measure,

the number of poor declined from 360 million in 1990 to

223 million in 1999 (and 161 million in 2002)

Growth

Poverty

-“ Promoting Growth with Equity, Country Economic Memorandum for China”, World Bank, 9/2003

The effects of social reforms are beginning The effects of social reforms are beginning to manifest themselvesto manifest themselves

Page 24: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Political Myth #2Political Myth #2

““The Dragon is ready to strike”: The Dragon is ready to strike”: China is a threat to the worldChina is a threat to the world

Page 25: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Political Myth #2: Political Myth #2: “The Dragon is “The Dragon is ready to strike”: China is a threat ready to strike”: China is a threat to the worldto the worldThe Real Story:The Real Story:

Protection of sovereignty

The “sweet and sour” effects of China

Piracy in China

Unfortunately, China is more feared than emulated beca

use it has the size to be everyone’s major competitor in t

he third world.

-Lester Thurow, “Fortune favors the bold, what we must do to build a new and lasting global prosperity

”, HarperBusiness 2003

Page 26: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Protection of SovereigntyProtection of Sovereignty

Page 27: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

In general, commodity exporters and exporters of

sophisticated goods and services gain, while other

labor–abundant countries lose.

-Martin Wolf, “The world must learn to live with a wide-awake China”, Financial Times, 11/12/2003

China’s “sweet and sour” effects on the China’s “sweet and sour” effects on the worldworld

Page 28: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

• Social Myths Social Myths

• Political Myths Political Myths

• Economic Economic MythsMyths

1.1.CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

Page 29: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Economic Myth #1Economic Myth #1

China’s economic growth is a China’s economic growth is a modern miracle modern miracle

Page 30: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Economic Myth #1: Economic Myth #1: China’s economy China’s economy is a modern miracleis a modern miracle

The Real Story:The Real Story:

Following same pattern as other Asian countries

Difference from other Asian economies such as Japan and the NIC’s

Although a large economy, not going to be a “rich” country

What keeps China awake at night?

Page 31: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

All of the successful economies of East Asia in the last h

alf century have followed the Japanese pattern.

Starting with large labor forces, they organized themselv

es to produce very high savings rates so they could affor

d massive investments in new capital equipment.

China, with its internal savings rate of 30 percent, is only

the most recent example of a country on this path.

-Lester Thurow, “Fortune favors the bold, what we must do to build a new and lasting global prosperity”,

HarperBusiness 2003

China is following the same growth pattern China is following the same growth pattern as as other Asian countriesother Asian countries

Page 32: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China has largely avoided mercantilism of Japan and other Asian countries, resulting in a more open economy

• Foreign manufacturers of autos, telecom equipment, and computers dominate the Chinese market

• In 2002, the stock of FDI in Japan was only $60bn, compared with $448bn in China

While China has a large trade surplus with the US, overall trade is not far from being balanced.

• 12 months to April 2003, overall surplus was $36bn

• According to IMF, its current account surplus this year will be only some $19bn.

At the same time, China is very different At the same time, China is very different from other Asian economies, like Japanfrom other Asian economies, like Japan

Page 33: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Even if China’s GDP increased 600% in the last 23 years, China’s 2002 GDP is only 1/4 of Japan’s, which has gone through 10 “lost” years.

In 2000, GDP per capita was $848, compared with US’ $29,240, Japan’s $32,350.

China $44.45 Russia 5.87

U.S. 35.16 Britain 3.78

India 27.80 Germany 3.60

Japan 6.67 France 3.15

Brazil 6.07 Italy 2.06

Global RepositioningEstimate of world’s largest economies in 2050

Trillions of Dollars

-Goldman Sachs & Co. BusinessWeek 10/27/2003

Even if China becomes a large economy, Even if China becomes a large economy, it won’t be a “rich” countryit won’t be a “rich” country

Page 34: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

1980-901990-00

Eastern RegionEastern Region• Shanghai (H) 30,805 7.4 12.2• Guangxi (L) 4,264 7.2 7.2 11.6

Central RegionCentral Region• Heilongjiang (H) 7,660 6.9 8.4• Jiangxi (L) 4,673 1.2 8.8 11.7

Western RegionWestern Region• Xinjiang (H) 6,653 11.1 9.7• Guizhou (L) 2,463 2.7 9.5 8.7

H/L Ratio

1999

Per CapitaGDP Growth Rate

GDP (RMB)

Income Disparity : Not Yet Critical, But ……...Income Disparity : Not Yet Critical, But ……...

-“China’s Economic Outlook, 2003 and Beyond”,MasterCard International, 7/2003

The income disparity is not yet critical, The income disparity is not yet critical, but has not improvedbut has not improved

Page 35: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

-“China’s Economic Outlook, 2003 and Beyond”,MasterCard International, 7/2003

6 provinces in the coastal zone account for

• 80% of exports

• 89% of export incomes

• ¼ of total population (about 338 million)

• Per capita export of US$762

Infrastructure development in the interior

• Accelerate urbanization

• Average labor cost in the mid & upper Yangtze River Valley is 30-50% lower than the coastal region

There are vast differences between regions There are vast differences between regions in Chinain China

Page 36: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Economic Myth #2Economic Myth #2

China is a third-world country China is a third-world country

Page 37: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Economic Myth #2: Economic Myth #2: China is a third-China is a third-world countryworld country

The Real Story:The Real Story:

Fastest advancing infrastructure “Great leap forward”: Generational leaps in te

chnology Phenomenal eBusiness and wireless growth

Page 38: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

• China’s has many transformative infrastructure projects

– China is developing into an energy powerhouse

– Transportation lines are expanding at dizzying rate

NOTEABLE QUOTABLE:

“China is definitely becoming a good model in developing its infrastructure”

- Heinrich von Pierer, CEO (Siemens)

- Economist, CCW Research, 3J Research, Symbio

NOTEWORTHY FACT: Shanghai is the first city in the world to have a Maglev train

China’s financial capital Shanghai was the first city in the world to build a magnetic levitation train – the most advanced train in existence.

China has the fastest advancing China has the fastest advancing infrastructureinfrastructure

Page 39: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

16900

26500

46000

68000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000 2001 2002 2003

Chinese Internet Users

Unit:1000 Users

-IT Time Weekly, Beijing China 10/20/2003

China’s use of technology is growing at a China’s use of technology is growing at a phenomenal ratephenomenal rate

Page 40: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Economic Myth #3Economic Myth #3

““China is responsible for Western China is responsible for Western job losses”: Like other Asian job losses”: Like other Asian economies, China is a net exportereconomies, China is a net exporter

Page 41: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Economic Myth #3: Economic Myth #3: “China is “China is responsible for Western job responsible for Western job losses”: Like other Asian losses”: Like other Asian economies, China is a net exportereconomies, China is a net exporter

The Real Story:The Real Story:

China imports a great deal

China actively involves foreign participation

China is losing even more manufacturing jobs than the US

Page 42: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

China imports more than Japan, even though its economy is one-third of the size.

U.S. shipments rose by over 20% in the first seven months of this year .

-BusinessWeek 10/23/2003

This year China has gobbled up foreign goods at breakneck speed. This has made China the largest contributor to export recovery in Asia, supporting global growth.

-Financial Times 11/11/2003

China imports a great dealChina imports a great deal

Page 43: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Abundant inflows of capital are a catalyst for management know-how and technology innovations

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has totaled over $50 billion every year for the previous 3 years

– $52.7 billion in 2002; pledged FDI of $82.7 billion for 2003

• Over 100 R&D centers in China owned by large tech multinationals

– Over $100 Billion invested to date in R&D centers

– Expected to double by 2005

“In China, there are so many talented workers and engineers, and we need to be part of China to better understand the local market”

- Guy Sene, Vice President Agilent Technologies

- Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Newswires, World Bank

China actively involves foreign China actively involves foreign participationparticipation

Page 44: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

It's a global trend that manufacturing jobs are

decreasing, even in China.

Special attention to be paid to the fact that although the

US lost 11% of the jobs, but this percentage is still

smaller than the 20% in Brazil, 16% in Japan and 15% in

China.

- Wall Street Journal,

10/20/2003

China is losing manufacturing jobs as wellChina is losing manufacturing jobs as well

Page 45: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

““SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN

A GLOBALISING WORLD”A GLOBALISING WORLD”

1.1. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

2.2. OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

3.3. FORTUNE FAVORS THFORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLDE BOLD

Page 46: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

More Chinese goods in India, Indians working in Tokyo or Kuala Lumpur – flows of people and ideas

Intra-regional trade – in services as well as in manufactured goods – is growing rapidly.

In contrast to the European Union or North America, companies and investors, rather than governments, are the driving force

Opportunity #1: Opportunity #1: East Asia is becoming one East Asia is becoming one common market: (ASEAN + 3 Agreement) common market: (ASEAN + 3 Agreement)

Page 47: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Workshop of the World

Increasingly an R&D center

FACT: Chinese cars that cost as little as $6,000 will arrive in the United States before long.

Opportunity #2: Opportunity #2: China as a production base China as a production base

Page 48: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

“The basic direction of China’s economic development i

n the first 20 years of the 21st century is for industrializat

ion, urbanization and marketization.

-Wang Mengkui, Director of the State Council Development Research Centre, 200

3

Durable goods and raw materials

IT products

Fastest rising per capita incomes

WTO pressures for Chinese companies

Opportunity #3: Opportunity #3: China as a market for China as a market for localized products and services localized products and services

Page 49: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Share in total Chinese imports from major partner countries (%)Instruments

8%

Chemical8%

Plastic andrubber

7%

Textile5%

Metals10%

Electronics27%

Machinery andvehicles

27%

Agriculture5% Minerals and

fuels3%

- UBS Investment Research, Asian Economic Perspectives, 9/29/2003

Durable goods and raw materials comprise the Durable goods and raw materials comprise the largest sector of the marketlargest sector of the market

Page 50: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

– China’s purchases of IT hardware, software and services reached nearly $14 billion in 2001

– China already leads PC sales growth and volume in Asia, and will become the second largest market in the world by 2006

– China will become Intel’s largest customer this year

% of Companies/ InstitutionsIndustry/ Sector with Higher 2003 Budgets

Government - Social Security Agencies 78%Government - Tax Agencies 49%Government - Public Security Agencies 69%Manufacturing 24%Banking 62%Insurance 40%Education 27%Public Sector 53%Source: CCW Research (Beijing)

NOTEWORHTY FACT: Most major industries and sectors in China will accelerate IT spending this year

- People’s Daily, CCID Research, Ministry of Information Industry, CCW Research

The sector for IT products is becoming one of the The sector for IT products is becoming one of the largest in the worldlargest in the world

Page 51: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

There is an expanding middle class (defined as

households earning more than RMB 35,500 or

US$4,300 a year).

About 90 million people, equaled to the combined

population of France and Canada, and this Chinese

populace is expected to grow at around 40% a year.

-McKinsey & Company,2002

China’s consumer market is surgingChina’s consumer market is surging

Page 52: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

e.g. Honda expects China to surpass Europe as its 3rd largest market after US and Japan by 2005

190

280260

300

May2002

March2003

May2003

July2003

January1997

indexedas 100

-“China’s Economic Outlook, 2003 and Beyond”,MasterCard International, 7/2003

Domestic consumption growth is building Domestic consumption growth is building momentummomentum

Page 53: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Based on WTO, China will open finance, insurance, brok

erage, telecom, distribution, travel, accounting, law, hos

pital, education, transportation, logistics.

-Communique by the 3rd plenary session of the 16th Central Committee of the Communist party of China, 10/14/2003

Banks, brokerage and insurance will be the greatest opp

ortunity for the foreign players.

-Jonathan Woetzel, “Capitalist China”,2003

China’s service industry is experiencing China’s service industry is experiencing explosive growthexplosive growth

Page 54: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

"China offers the most exciting opportunity in the securiti

es industry in this decade"  -Michael O'Conor, chairman of FIX Protocol Limited (FPL) and managing director at Merrill Lynch

 

FIX expects to be adopted in the China market in the near

future. The stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen h

ave been upgrading their trading and settlement platform

s.

WTO pressures for Chinese Companies are WTO pressures for Chinese Companies are driving companies to seek best-of-breed solutionsdriving companies to seek best-of-breed solutions

Page 55: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

““SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN SILK ROAD 2003, UNDERSTANDING CHINA IN

A GLOBALISING WORLD”A GLOBALISING WORLD”

1.1. CHINA DE-MYSTIFIEDCHINA DE-MYSTIFIED

2.2. OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

3.3. FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLDFORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD

Page 56: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLDFORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD

How can Ireland maintain its tech

leadership?

How can Ireland move from being Euro-

centric to globally integrated?

How can Ireland “GLOCALIZE”?The People's Republic of China, had stated a goal in 2001 to produce more world-class engineers.

Do we have the national will to take productive action? When the problem becomes obvious, it will be too late.

-Andy Grove , Forbes.com , 2003

Page 57: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLDFORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD

Our Recommendations:Our Recommendations:

Partner with Chinese companies

Sell services to Chinese multinationals

Lack of name brand recognition and loyalty in China posts big opportunity for Western SME’s

Integrate China into your entire business life-cycle

Send your best army…

Page 58: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Let China sleep,

for when she wakes,

she will shake the world

-Napoleon Bonaparte

Send your best armySend your best army

Page 59: Mitos de China

ITESM, CSN

Something to Think About:

In 1799, China was 44% of the world’s GDP

In 1900, China was 7% of the world’s GDP

Today, China is only 3.5% of the world’s GDP

For further information:

Email: [email protected]

Closing RemarksClosing Remarks


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