Course 3: MLB Strategy

Advanced Cash Game Strategy

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Lesson Overview

Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high floor and high

expected value. We can accomplish this through the following

levers:

I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, salary distribution

II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors

III. Lineup construction: salary distribution, stacking, using an optimizer

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I. Pitcher Selection

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Pitcher Selection: Key Stats

Stat Notes

Pitch Count Higher pitch count = more opportunity for high floor

Innings Pitched (IP) High (IP) = more opportunity for high floor

Strikeout Rate / Opp. Rate Look for high-strikeout probability

Pitcher wOBA Larger sample size is more indicative

Opposing Team wOBA Larger sample size is more indicative

Weather Beware of bad weather conditions

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Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas

Stat Notes

Projected Team Win Ex. Clayton Kershaw -220 moneyline

Expected Runs Against Suggest predicted runs allowed

Strikeout Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game

Ex. David Price (Bos) vs. Houston

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II. Hitter Selection

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Hitter Selection: Key Stats

Stat Notes

Batting Order 1-5 lineup spots are safer plays, more opportunities

Handedness Splits Use Matchup wOBA (exclusively on RotoQL)

Weather and Ballpark Factors Coors Field and Other Park Indicators

Platoon Players Tend to be cheap salary, limits floor and upside

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Hitter Selection: Using Vegas

Stat Notes

Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored

Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs

Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game

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PA/G vs Batting Order

Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy9

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Average Batting by Split

Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy10

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Source: Sports Baseball Americawww.rotoql.com

Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors

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III. Lineup Construction

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Lineup Construction: Key Elements

Stat Notes

Salary Distribution Pitchers are more consistent

Stacking Still a viable strategy in many situations

Late Swap Strategy H2H - Be aware of available late swaps

Using an Optimizer Build through RotoQL

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Salary Distribution

Source: Daily Roto14

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Stacking vs Outcome [DraftKings]

Source: DraftKings Playbook15

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DraftKings Late Swap Strategy

● Be aware of swap opportunities in these contests

Scenario:● Losing in H2H contest, switch out a similar player for differentiated one

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Using an Optimizer

● Optimizing lineup combinations requires an optimizer to get best value

● Multiple lineups - manage with RotoQL’s player exposure to stay in control

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