50
MNSES 9100: Risky Business, Science, Risk and Uncertainty deborah oughton@umb no deborah.oughton@umb.no UMB and UiO Ethics Programme
MNSES 9100: Risky Business, Science, Risk and Uncertainty
deborah oughton@umb [email protected]
UMB and UiO Ethics Programme
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910
All knowledge has the potential to be absued or misused; all knowledge has the potentialETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
or misused; all knowledge has the potential to be beneficial to society; all technologies carry risks
JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
h f h h
TENSKAP
on Is this part of Research Ethics??
Strand and Oughton 2009 Risk and Uncertainty as a Research Ethics Challenge. NENT (www.etikkom.no)
UN
IVERSITE
Research Ethics Guidelines
ETHIC
AL G
Ou
ghton
ETET FOR M
ILJ
General guidelines – NENT and NESH (www.etikkom.no)- Research Ethics Guidelines for Natural Science and Technology (NENT)
- Research Ethics Guidelines for Social Sciences, Humanites, Law and Theology
GU
IDELIN
ES JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
Research Ethics Guidelines for Social Sciences, Humanites, Law and Theology
- Both available in Norwegian and English
MN
SES91
00
TENSKAP
Deborah
3
UN
IVERSITE
The overriding obligations of research to mankind
ETHIC
AL G
Ou
ghton
ETET FOR M
ILJ
mankind
1. Research must be in accordance with human rights.
GU
IDELIN
ES JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
2. Research must be in accordance with sustainable development and respect for the environment
3 R h t t
MN
SES91
00
Misinterpretation: all research projects and individual scientists need to show they are actively promoting peace sustainableTEN
SKAP
3. Research must promote peace
4. Research must promote and take part in the development of democracy.
Deborah
actively promoting peace, sustainable development, …
Intention:development of democracy.
5. Research must promote greater global justice in the distribution of wealth through the spread of information
Intention: - to recognise the potential for research to be misused
4
information
…24 principles
- to recognise that the utimate aims of research should be for the benefit of humanity
www.etikkom.no
UN
IVERSITE Personal and Institutional Responsibility
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
Science/Research is value free : how the knowledge is, or may be used is not an issue for science or scientists
00 R
isk –D
ebJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
or may be, used is not an issue for science or scientists
Scientists have an obligation to consider the possible positive and negative benefits of their research
borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
positive and negative benefits of their research
Governments and institutions bear the main/only responsibility for controlling the use and application of
on
p y g ppresearch.
The ethical responsibility of scientists needs to be made more visible.
UN
IVERSITE Personal and Institutional Responsibility
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
ebJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
Stig S. Frøland, prof. Rikshospilatlet..does Utgard mean that natural scientists should try to
di t h th i lt ld b d i d?
TENSKAP
on predict how their results could be used or misused? … Utgard demands that scientists should untertake an ongoing idological and political assessment in their g g g presearch. This is incompatible with research… there is only one ethical demand for research: that it has acceptable quality and that the results are presentedacceptable quality and that the results are presented as objectively as possible”
L tt i Aft t 29th A il 2010Letter in Aftenposten 29th April 2010
UN
IVERSITE
NENT: Proposal for a Science Oath (as part of PhD graduation)
ETHIC
AL G
Ou
ghton
ETET FOR M
ILJ
of PhD graduation)
”I will carry out my activities as a scientist truthfully and honestly. I will endeavour to use my scientific knowledge for
GU
IDELIN
ES JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
y y gthe benefit of mankind. I will show respect for animals and nature. I will act in accordance with research ethics, and shall not let ideology, religion, ethnicity, predjudice or
MN
SES91
00
TENSKAP
gy, g , y, p jmaterial benefits impede my ethical responsibility as a researcher.” Revisions by MNSES students, Spring 2011
Deborah
7
UN
IVERSITE
Would you like an oath to be part of you PhD graduation
ETHIC
AL G
Ou
ghton
ETET FOR M
ILJ
graduationGU
IDELIN
ES JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
Yes
Maybe
MN
SES91
00
TENSKAP
y
No way
Deborah
8
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910
Risk and Uncertainty
ETET FOR M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Probability, Risk and Uncertainty (Ian Hacking: Probability)
Public perception of risk – Fukushima caseJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
p p
How the media promote the public misunderstanding of science (Goldacre, Bad Science, 2008)
TENSKAP
on
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910
All knowledge has the potential to be b d i d ll k l d h
ETET FOR M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
absued or misused; all knowledge has the potential to be beneficial to society; all technologies carry risksJØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
borah O
ugh
to
society; all technologies carry risks
l h k
TENSKAP
on How to evaluate the risks??
Strand and Oughton 2009 Risk and Uncertainty as a Research Ethics Challenge. NENT (www.etikkom.no)
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Chance and Probability (Ian Hacking)
ETET FOR M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Metaphysical/ontological : From deterministic (cause-effect) to stocasticJØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
borah O
ugh
to
( )(by chance). Example quantum physics
Epistemological/methodological:
TENSKAP
on Epistemological/methodological: Gathering of knowledge; hypothesis testing; statistics
Ethical: Decision-making and risk assessment
Hacking, I. The Taming of g, gChance; The Emergence of Probability
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Chance, Probability and RiskETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Chance, Probability and Risk
JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
on
Blaise Pascal1623-1662
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Risk, Uncertainty and ProbabilityETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
, y y
Probabilities – probability of outcome given an actionJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
Risk = probability * consequence (for a risk assessor)
Decision making under uncertainty – decisions having various possible outcomesTEN
SKAP
on
– probabilities well-known (e.g. a fair bet)
– probabilities ”guessable”, ”estimated”
– probabilities unknownp
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Decision making under uncertaintyETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
g y
Expected value of an action = "sum of the product of probabilities and consequences"JØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
borah O
ugh
to
consequences
C ( )
TENSKAP
on
A1
p11 C11 (v11)
p12 C12 (v12) A alternative
C ( )
p13 C13 (v13)A – alternativep – probabilityC – consequence
l
A2
p21 C21 (v21)
p22 C22 (v22)
v - value
p23 C23 (v23)
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Analogy - BettingETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Analogy Betting
Which is the best bet?JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
Which is the best bet?– 10 kr on 1 in million chance of winning 1 million kr
40 kr on 1 in 100 chance of winning 5000 kr
TENSKAP
on – 40 kr on 1 in 100 chance of winning 5000 kr
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Calculate Expected ValueETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Calculate Expected Value
Bet 1
0 9999999 * 10 kr = 10 krJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
0.9999999 * -10 kr = - 10 kr
10-6 * 106 kr = + 1 kr
9 k
TENSKAP
on = - 9 kr
Bet 2
0.99 * -40 kr = - 39.6 kr
0.01 * 5000 kr = + 50 kr
= + 10 4 kr= + 10.4 kr
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Same approach used in -ETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Same approach used in
Utilitarianism (values as utility/happiness)JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
Cost benefit analysis (values as monetary profits or loss)
TENSKAP
on
Decision Theory (Bayesian theory)
Environmental Impact Assessment
”…economists know the price of peverything and the value of nothing…”
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Pascal’s WagerETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Pascal s Wager
JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
God exists (G)
God does not exist (~G)TEN
SKAP
on
Living as if God exists (B) +∞ (heaven) −N (none)
Living as if God does not exist ( B)
−∞ (hell) +N (none)(~B)
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Ranking Risks: Risk of death (Wilson and Crouch 2001)ETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Ranking Risks: Risk of death (Wilson and Crouch, 2001)
Action Average annual risk per Average annual deathsJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
100 000 ”active persons”
Scuba diving 42 126
TENSKAP
on
Hunting 3 600
Skiing 12 41
Tilting soda machines 2.5 5
Being hit by meteorite 0.04 2Being hit by meteorite 0.04 2
Chloroform in drinking 0.07 ?water*
*legal limit
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910
Lifestyle Risks (Wilson and Crough, 2001)
ETET FOR M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Action/state of affairs Annual per Capita Risk per 100,000JØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
borah O
ugh
to Mountaineering 60-600TENSKAP
on
Cigarette smoking 300
Motor vehicle accident 15
Home accidents 11
Potassium 40 in body 1
Drinking 140 pints of beer a year 0.2
Li i l l t 0 1Living near a nuclear power plant 0.1
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Public perception of riskETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Public perception of risk
”Expert” – the public is ignorant misunderstands
JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
ignorant, misunderstands risks, is irrational in their attitude towards risks. They smoke and drive but reject h h ll i k
TENSKAP
on the much smaller risks associated with GM foods, pesticides, food additives, chemical industry, etc.y,
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910
Case 4: Nanotechnology/ NanomaterialsETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Nanomaterials
Development and exploitation of materials and products at theJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
Development and exploitation of materials and products at the nanometer scale (1-100 nm)
Nanomaterials – membranes, wires, particles, …
N ti l i ( b d l f ll )
TENSKAP
on Nanoparticles – organic (carbon rods, polymers, fullerenes), inorganic (metals, metal oxides, ceramics) or compsite
Three types: natural (colloids), anthropogenic (smoke, soot), f t d/ i dor manufactured/engineered
Many already on the market (sun-creams, self-cleaning surfaces, refrigerators, washing machines)
UN
IVERSITE
Nan
oethics
Environmental and Health Risks
ETET FOR M
ILJ
s –D
eborah
Environmental and Health risks
– High reactivity due to high surface areaJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
h O
ugh
ton
– Potential to cross the blood-brain membrane
– Ecotoxicological responses found in organismsand cell cultures (e.g., fullerenes, metals, metalTEN
SKAP
( g , , ,oxides)
– Asbestos analogy: asbestos made from chrysotile, an naturally occuring non-toxic substance. y g
– ”Grey Goo” and killer nano-robots
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910
Public perception of new technologies
ETET FOR M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb Too riskyJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
No benefit
Not necessaryTENSKAP
on
Unnatural
Immoral
“Playing God”
Capitalistic
Instrumental
Unfair
UN
IVERSITE
The Fukushima Daiichi Incident Fukushima Daiichi (Plant I)
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
– Unit I - GE Mark I BWR (439 MW), Operating since 1971
– Unit II-IV - GE Mark I BWR (760 MW), Operating since 1974
00 R
isk –D
ebJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
1974borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
on
Slide courtesy of Dr. Matthias Braun, AREVA
UN
IVERSITE
The Fukushima Daiichi Incident
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
ebJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
on
nucleartourist.com
Loss of coolant, build up of steam, hydrogen explosion
Evacuation from 30 km zone
Large discharges to the sea; contaminated land areas
Enormous clean up and remediation project
UN
IVERSITE
Fukushima Challenges:
SETAC 2012ETET FOR M
ILJ
Tens of thousands died in the Fukushima earthquake, nearly half a million were made homeless, yet since the accident most of the Western media focus was on the nuclear incident
2 Berlin –D
eboJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
most of the Western media focus was on the nuclear incident
Foreign governments advised evacuation of citizens from a greater area than the Japanese
rah Oughton
TENSKAP
Reports of iodine tablets selling out in Europe
More than 25 embassies closed or relocated from Tokyo
UN
IVERSITE
Consumer goods
SETAC 2012ETET FOR M
ILJ
More than 50 countries introduced restrictions on food imports
2 Berlin –D
eboJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
Total value of agricultural products imported to the EU from Japan: €187 million for agricultural products and €18 million for fishery products.
rah Oughton
TENSKAP
In 2010, China was the fourth-largest importer of Japanese farm and fishery products after Hong Kong, the United States and Taiwan, buying items worth about ¥55.5 billion., y g
“Radioactivity: All cars from Japan to be tested for radiation” Headlineradiation Headline www.economicsnewspaper.com
UN
IVERSITE
The Nuclear Rabbit
SETAC
201ETET FO
R M
ILJ
Earless bunny video stokes Japan nuke fears - [Jun 10 2011 - 10connects.com]
Experts say it is unlikely a rabbit born withou... - [Jun 10 2011 - ONE News]
Japanese earless rabbit no nuclear mutant, say ... - [Jun 10 2011 - ONE News]
12 B
erlin –
DeJØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
Earless bunny raises fear of effects of nuclear... - [Jun 09 2011 - New York Daily News]
Japan's earless rabbit: A radiation mutant? - [Jun 09 2011 - The Week Magazine]
Fukushima's "mutant" earless bunny - [Jun 09 2011 - Salon]
Earless rabbit born near Fukushima nuclear powe... - [Jun 09 2011 - Batangas Today]
eborah O
ugh
tTENSKAP
ton
Blog: “When it's grown wings and spits acid then I'll worry”
UN
IVERSITE
Fukushima Challenges:
SETAC 2012ETET FOR M
ILJ
Tens of thousands died in the Fukushima earthquake, nearly half a million were made homeless, yet since the accident most of the Western media focus was on the nuclear incident
2 Berlin –D
eboJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
most of the Western media focus was on the nuclear incident
Foreign governments advised evacuation of citizens from a greater area than the Japanese
rah Oughton
TENSKAP
Reports of iodine tablets selling out in Europe
More than 25 embassies closed or relocated from TokyoIs it irrational to show such aversion to the radiation risks from Fukushima?
What factors impact on risk perception?perception?
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Risk Assessment: Factual and Ethically Relevant CriteriaETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Factual knowledge
JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
– Who or what is affected?
– What is the size of the harms and benefits?
Autonomy and libertyTENSKAP
on
– Have affected persons given consent to/have control over any imposed risk?
– Is there a risk of privacy infringements?
Equality and justice– Treat like cases equally
– How are harms and benefits distributed?
What are the alternatives?
UN
IVERSITE
Risk and Uncertainty as a Research Ethics Challange
Un
cAP
BerETET FO
R M
ILJ
Introduction to the concepts of uncertainty, risk and the precautionary principle
rgen D
eborahJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
principle
Article 10 and 11 of the NENT Guideline
The Issue at Stake: Research as an Acti it that Gene ates Unce taint and
h O
ugh
ton
TENSKAP
Activity that Generates Uncertainty and Risk
What to Do – Part I: Uncertainty ManagementManagement
– Traditional categorisation of uncertainties
– Developments in Categorisation and M i f U t i tiMapping of Uncertainties
– Dealing with qualitative aspects (considerations of quality)
Wh t t D P t II P ti What to Do – Part II: Precautionary Governance of Science and Technology Strand and Oughton 2009
(www.etikkom.no)
UN
IVERSITE
NENT Guidelines
Uncertainty, Risk and the Precautionary Principle
Un
cAP
BerETET FO
R M
ILJ
Research may have far-ranging consequences for health, society or the environment. It is therefore important that the uncertainty and risk that often follow when research becomes practical and concrete is not neglected,
rgen D
eborahJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
often follow when research becomes practical and concrete is not neglected, and that decision-makers who use scientific knowledge achieve a good understanding of such knowledge in its correct context.
10 The researcher must clarify the degree of certainty and
h O
ugh
ton
TENSKAP
10. The researcher must clarify the degree of certainty and precision that characterizes the research results. In particular, the researcher must take care to clarify the relative extent of the results’ certainty and validity, as well as to indicate any elements of risk or uncertainty that may be significant for possible uses of the research results. Researchers are traditionally accustomed to presenting knowledge demands critically and in context Researchers are not as accustomed however tocritically and in context. Researchers are not as accustomed, however, to presenting elements of risk and uncertainty. It is part of the researcher’s ethical responsibility and striving for objectivity to clearly depict the relative certainty and validity of the information. Whenever possible, the researchers h ld l bl h d d h h’ [ ]should also use suitable methods to depict the research’s uncertainty[1].
Research institutions are responsible for conveying such methods to their employees and students.
UN
IVERSITE
Sources and Dimensions of Uncertainty
Un
cAP
BerETET FO
R M
ILJ
Technical or Numerical Uncertainty
rgen D
eborahJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
– Inexactness
Model and Conceptual Uncertainty
h O
ugh
ton
TENSKAP – Unreliability
Epistemological Uncertainty
Described by statistics, addressed in risk assessment
and management th o ghp g y
– Knowledge gaps/ignorance/unknown
Social and Ethical Uncertainty
and management through sensitivity analysis,
probabilistic risk Social and Ethical Uncertainty
– Acceptance, interpretation, economic costs assessment, etc
Walker et al, 2004; Oughton, 2004, van der Sjuis, 2006;
Inexactness
Uncertaintiy in model quantities
(technical uncertainties)
Uncertainties in Input data
Inexactness
Conflicting evidence (technical uncertainties)
Parameter uncertainties
Uncertain equations
Lack of observations/
evidence
equations
Model structure uncertainties
measurements
Unreliability
Uncertainty about model form
(methodological uncertainties)
Uncertain levels of confidence
Ignorance
Uncertainty about model
Uncertainty aboout model
validityIndeterminency
completeness(epistemological uncertainties)
Uncertainty due to
variability
UN
IVERSITE
Model and Conceptual Uncertainties –Complex systems
Un
cAP
BerETET FO
R M
ILJ
rgen D
eborahJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
•Positive or Negative Outcomes •Feedback
h O
ugh
ton
TENSKAP
•Feedback mechanisms•”Known unknowns”
– cannot be accounted for easily yusing statistical methods or PRA
UN
IVERSITE
”Social and Ethical” Uncertainties
Un
cAP
BerETET FO
R M
ILJ
What is an acceptable risk?
How much “damage” to a species can be tolerated in
rgen D
eborahJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
an ecosystem?
Do the benefits outweigh the risks?
h O
ugh
ton
TENSKAP
And who decides that?
Interpretation of legislation; applicability of precaution, acceptability of results to stakeholders,precaution, acceptability of results to stakeholders, …
UN
IVERSITE
NENT Guidelines - cont
Un
cAP
BerETET FO
R M
ILJ
Uncertainty, Risk and the Precautionary Principle
rgen D
eborahJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
11. In cases where plausible, yet uncertain information exists that the use of technology or the development of a certain research field might lead to ethically unacceptable consequences for health,
h O
ugh
ton
TENSKAP
society or the environment, researchers within the given field must strive to provide information that is relevant for using the Precautionary Principle. This entails that the researcher must cooperate with other relevant partiesThis entails that the researcher must cooperate with other relevant parties when using the Precautionary Principle. The Precautionary Principle is here defined in the following manner: “When human activities may lead to morally unacceptable harm that is scientifically plausible but uncertain,
[1]actions shall be taken to avoid or diminish that harm.” [1] This principle is important for large parts of scientific research, and researchers are co-responsible for facilitating deliberations regarding the Precautionary PrinciplePrinciple.
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Precautionary PrincipleETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Precautionary Principle
‘In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilitiesJØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
borah O
ugh
to
shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmentalTEN
SKAP
on postponing cost effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.’
[Rio, 1992]
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Oil drilling in the Barents SeaETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
g
Large untaped resources (Snøhvitfelt – 3000 million cubic meters gass, Barents Sea 990 million Sm3 oil)JØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
borah O
ugh
to
million Sm3 oil) Up to 4100 new jobs Economic benefits for whole countryTEN
SKAP
on
4 out of 5 inhabitants in Finmark support drilling
March 2006 MD launchedIntegrated Management Plan
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Opposition
Vulnerability of ecosystemJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
y y
Uniqueness of ecosystem
Impacts on fishing (43000 jobs)TENSKAP
on
Impacts on tourism
Cultural changes
Risk of accidents
Lack of knowledge
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 DifficultiesETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Difficulties
There is no one definition of the precautionary principleJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
There is no one definition of the precautionary principle
What is meant by ”serious and irreversible”?
How to distinguish between possible, probable and i tifi ll l ibl d b bl
TENSKAP
on scientifically plausible consequences and probable consequences?
How do the possible benefits weigh into the equation?
UN
IVERSITE
How the media promote public misunderstanding of Science - #1 Bad stats
MN
SES910
R l ti Ri k
ETET FOR M
ILJ
of Science #1 Bad stats
– The risk of having a heart attack is 50% higher if you have high cholesterol
00 R
isk –D
eb
Relative Risk
JØ-
OG
BIOVIT
– The extra risk of having a heart attack if you have high cholesterol is 2%
These are the same (hypothetical) figures how?
borah O
ugh
to
Absolute Risk
TENSKAP
These are the same (hypothetical) figures – how?
Media often focuses on relative rather than absolute risk
on
Media often focuses on relative rather than absolute risk
4 in 100 men in their 50s with normal cholesterol will have a heart attack
6 in 100 men in their 50s with high cholesterol will have a heart attack
UN
IVERSITE
How the media promote public misunderstanding of Science - #2 ”Research has shown… ”
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
of Science #2 Research has shown…
”MMR vaccines increase the risk of autism”
00 R
isk –D
eb HypothesisJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
MMR vaccines increase the risk of autism
Paper published in the Lancet by Andrew Wakefield in 1998 suggested a link between MMR vaccine and autism
borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
on
“12 children, consecutively referred to the department of , y ppaediatric gastroenterology with a history of pervasive developmental disorder … were investigated… in eight children, the onset of behavioural problems had been linked either by the parents or the child’s physician with measles, mumps, rubella vaccination.In these eight children the average interval from exposure to fi st beha io al s mptoms as 6 2 da s ” Wakefield et al 1998
Evidence
first behavioural symptoms was 6.2 days.” Wakefield et al., 1998
UN
IVERSITE
How the media promote public misunderstanding of Science - #2 ”Research has shown… ”
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
of Science #2 Research has shown…
”MMR vaccines increase the risk of autism”
00 R
isk –D
eb HypothesisJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
MMR vaccines increase the risk of autism
Paper published in the Lancet by Andrew Wakefield in 1998 suggested a link between MMR vaccine and autism
borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
on
“12 children, consecutively referred to the department of , y ppaediatric gastroenterology with a history of pervasive developmental disorder … were investigated… in eight children, the onset of behavioural problems had been linked either by the parents or the child’s physician with measles, mumps, rubella vaccination.In these eight children the average interval from exposure to fi st beha io al s mptoms as 6 2 da s ” Wakefield et al 1998
Evidence
first behavioural symptoms was 6.2 days.” Wakefield et al., 1998
UN
IVERSITE
How the media promote public misunderstanding of Science - #2 MMR… Consequences
Research
EETET FOR M
ILJ
Massive media attention in UK
Vaccinations down from over 90% to 38% in some areas
Ethics –
DeboJØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
Vaccinations down from over 90% to 38% in some areas
Measles and mumps inceasing (mumps epidemic in 2005 -5000 notifications in January)
orah O
uh
ton
TENSKAP
MumpsMumps
BMJ 2005;330:1132‐1135 (14 May), doi:10.1136/bmj.330.7500.1132
UN
IVERSITE Swineflu Vaccine
MN
SES910ETET FO
R M
ILJ
Swineflu Vaccine00 R
isk –D
ebJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
toTENSKAP
on
UN
IVERSITE “Jessica Alba has the perfect wiggle, study says”
Research
EETET FOR M
ILJ
Jessica Alba has the perfect wiggle, study saysDaily Telegraph 25th Aug 2007
Ethics –
DeboJØ
-O
G BIO
VIT
Jessica Alba, the film actress, has the ultimate sexy strut, according to a team of Cambridge mathematicians. The
d i f d th t it i th ti b t hi d i t
orah O
ugh
tonTENSKAP
academics found that it is the ratio between hips and waist that puts the sway into a woman's walk - and the nearer that ratio is to 0.7, the better.
Goldacre, 2006
UN
IVERSITE
MN
SES910 Essay TopicsETET FO
R M
ILJ
00 R
isk –D
eb
Essay Topics
Carry out an ethical analysis of a research project
Argue for/against why scientists have responsibility for theJØ-
OG
BIOVIT
borah O
ugh
to
Argue for/against why scientists have responsibility for the outcomes of their research
Carry out a risk-cost-benefit analysis of a research projectTENSKAP
on
Public perception of risk – what is rational, what is irrational?
The importance of chance and uncertainty in any area of science: determinism vs probabilistic; data treatment; ethical analysis
The bridge between precautionary principle and science The bridge between precautionary principle and science
Thank You!!!!
and good luck
Thank You!!!!
… and good luck
