Mobile Data Trends and Networks Fit for Purpose · Mobile Data Trends and Networks Fit for Purpose...

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Mobile Data Trends and Networks Fit for Purpose Focus on SEE

Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy 20 March 2013 SEE Mobility Summit

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Users

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Connections

More Mobile Video



Overview


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

7.4 EB

0.9 EB

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 13X from 2012 to 2017

11.2 EB

4.7 EB

2.8 EB

1.6 EB

66% CAGR 2012–2017



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

379 PB

48 PB

CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line CEE-R Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 11X from 2012 to 2017

546 PB

247 PB

148 PB

83 PB

63% CAGR 2012–2017

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

1 EB

0.2 EB

WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line WE Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8X from 2012 to 2017

1.4 EB

0.7 EB

0.4 EB 0.3 EB

50% CAGR 2012–2017



42.2

32.7

43.1

33.9

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012

Exab

ytes

per

mon

th

Projected in 2009

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth



Top Trends


VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends

Device Diversification

Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic

The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top

Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks

The (Mobile) Internet of Things

Mobile Video and Cloud


Global Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone

2017 2012

6.8 31

MBs per Month MBs per Month

M2M 64 330

Smartphone 342 2,660

4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114

Tablet 820 5,387

Laptop 2,503 5,731



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (.9%) Tablets (2.3%) Laptops (2.6%) M2M (16.5%) Smartphones (27.4%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share


8% CAGR 2012–2017

Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (.2%) Non-Smartphones (1.4%) M2M (5.1%) Tablets (11.7%) Laptops (14.0%) Smartphones (67.5%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device In 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic

Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share

66% CAGR 2012–2017



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (1%, 2%) Tablets (2%, 6%) Laptops (5%, 5%) M2M (11%, 37%) Smartphones (30%, 37%)

WE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Have 37% Share in 2017

Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share

10% CAGR 2012–2017



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (0%, 0%) Tablets (0%, 2%) Laptops (3%, 3%) M2M (7%, 22%) Smartphones (15%, 22%)

CEE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Non-Smartphones Still Dominant in Numbers


6% CAGR 2012–2017



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (0%, 0%) Non-Smartphones (4%, 4%) M2M (4%, 6%) Tablets (1%, 12%) Laptops (51%, 19%) Smartphones (40%, 59%)

CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device Smartphone Traffic Surpasses Laptop Traffic in 2013

63% CAGR 2012–2017












0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r C

onne

ctio

ns

4G 3G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

57% 76%

23%

1%

33%

10%



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r C

onne

ctio

ns

4G 3G

WE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

70%

56%

44%

1% 12%

18%



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r C

onne

ctio

ns

4G 3G

CEE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

72%

77%

22%

0% 8%

21%



0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017

14%

45%

51%

10% 76%

4%



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G

CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 8% of Connections and 37% of Traffic in 2017

2%

37%

60%

22% 76%

3%











0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Perc

enta

ge o

f top

1 P

erce

nt

to to

tal M

B/m

o

Top 1 percent

Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2012 Top 1% Consumption Steadily Decreasing Compared to 99%

24%

16%

52%











0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 22% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 11% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011

22%

78%

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

2012 FORECAST


0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 33% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

46%

54%



0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th


CEE Mobile Data Traffic Offload 29% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 19% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

29%

71%



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th


WE Mobile Data Traffic Offload 51% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 32% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

51%

49%



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th


US Mobile Data Traffic Offload 66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 47% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

66%

34%



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Mobile Data (70% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (34% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic

40%

53%

7%


28% CAGR 2011–2016


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Mobile Data (70% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Offload (112% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (31% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology With Wi-Fi Offload

40%

47%

7%


27% CAGR 2011–2016

6%


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Mobile Data (69% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (19% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Offload (109% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (48% CAGR)

CEE IP Traffic by Local Access Technology With Wi-Fi Offload

32%

55%

10%


35% CAGR 2011–2016

4%










0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

Devices Users

CEE Mobile Users and Devices Users Grow at 1% CAGR, Devices Grow at 6% CAGR


785

590

342 319


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

2 PB per mo

CEE M2M Mobile Data Traffic Growth M2M Data Traffic will Increase 19X from 2012 to 2017

32 PB per mo


80% CAGR 2012–2017










0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

Mobile File Sharing (7.5%) Mobile M2M (5.8%) Mobile Web/Data (22.9%) Mobile Video (63.7%)

63% CAGR 2012–2017

CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017

Figures (n) refer to 2017 traffic share



68% 70% 73% 76% 78% 81%

32% 30% 27% 24% 22% 19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic

CEE Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 68% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 81% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017



Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms

•  Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing •  File sharing

(low-res video) • Web conferencing •  Social networking

(basic text only) •  Stream basic video/ music

•  File sharing (high-res video) •  IP Telephony •  ERP / CRM •  Basic gaming (single player) •  Basic video chat

(low-res video) •  IP audio conferencing •  Basic video conferencing

(low-res video) •  Advanced social networking

(multimedia/interactivity) •  HD video streaming

•  HD Industrial design collaboration •  Advanced gaming

(multi player) •  Advanced video chat

(high-res video) •  Advanced file sharing

(super high-res video) •  HD audio conferencing •  HD video conferencing

(high-res video) •  Stream super HD video


Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~1900 kbps Upload Speed: ~600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket

Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket

Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms

•  Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing •  File sharing

(low-res video) • Web conferencing •  Social networking

(basic text only) •  Stream basic video/ music

•  File sharing (high-res video) •  IP Telephony •  ERP / CRM •  Basic gaming (single player) •  Basic video chat

(low-res video) •  IP audio conferencing •  Basic video conferencing

(low-res video) •  Advanced social networking

(multimedia/interactivity) •  HD video streaming

•  HD Industrial design collaboration •  Advanced gaming

(multi player) •  Advanced video chat

(high-res video) •  Advanced file sharing

(super high-res video) •  HD audio conferencing •  HD video conferencing

(high-res video) •  Stream super HD video


Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds

Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index

Lithuania

Romania Bulgaria Latvia

Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia

Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia

Turkey Georgia

Serbia Croatia

Montenegro

Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus

Azerbaijan

Albania

-‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)

Average Download Speed (kbps)

Other Countries Central and Eastern Europe


Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries


Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia

Serbia Croatia Montenegro

Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus

Azerbaijan Albania -‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)


Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Slovenia Ave download: 7.2mbps Ave upload: 4.2mbps Ave latency: 50ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Croatia Ave download: 4.2mbps Ave upload: 0.7mbps Ave latency: 62ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Bulgaria Ave download: 19.0mbps Ave upload: 12.2mbps Ave latency: 35ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Bosnia & H. Ave download: 2.9mbps Ave upload: 0.6mbps Ave latency: 69ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Albania Ave download: 2.6mbps Ave upload: 1.0mbps Ave latency: 102ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Macedonia Ave download: 5.6mbps Ave upload: 2.1mbps Ave latency: 60ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Serbia Ave download: 4.2mbps Ave upload: 0.9mbps Ave latency: 59ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Montenegro Ave download: 3.5mbps Ave upload: 0.7mbps Ave latency: 75ms




Lithuania


Czech Rep.

Moldova

Hungary Slovakia

Ukraine Russia


Turkey Georgia


Armenia

Bosnia & H.

Belarus


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)



Romania Ave download: 22.9mbps Ave upload: 11.8mbps Ave latency: 39ms


Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds


Hungary

Russia

Ukraine

Romania

Poland

Turkey

0 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)


Other Countries Central and Eastern Europe


Mobile Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries


Russia

Ukraine

Romania

Poland

Turkey Hungary

0 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Average Uploa

d Speed (kbp

s)


Above 160ms 100 to 159ms Below 100ms


Summary


Summary and Implications

 More users, each using more bandwidth  Each user will have more/more powerful devices  Accelerated smartphone adoption  Video and cloud driving demand and consumption  4G will dramatically increase data consumption  Advanced Cloud Apps Require Advanced Networks-low latency  Off-load increasingly important—small cell complement  Need more Spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed  Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in access  Networks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”


Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2012–2017 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]


Thank you.

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