HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. www.huawei.com Huawei Confidential Looking towards 2025 … … what changes could we expect? … and how will this affect society? Thriving in a Digital Economy? John Frieslaar [email protected]Prediction about the future is very difficult, but to some degree the future is already here; its just not widely distributed as yet; you will meet it when you have to; just ensure you do not embrace it with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present … TELE2 Presentation 21 st September 2012
Transcript
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.
www.huawei.com
Huawei Confidential
Looking towards 2025 …… what changes could we expect?… and how will this affect society?
Prediction about the future is very difficult, but to some degree thefuture is already here; its just not widely distributed as yet; you will
meet it when you have to; just ensure you do not embrace it with thesame weapons of reason which today arm you against the present …
TELE2 Presentation21st September 2012
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
The Emerging Telecoms Environment
The Generally agreed vision is that:
• By 2030 our cities will be very clever.
• Our surroundings – buildings, bus stops, bill boards, cars, phones, maybe even our clothes - will have varying levels of inbuilt
intelligence, sensing, tracking and communications capabilities.
• This level of connectivity and interaction will fundamentally change
how we manage our lives and living spaces – at home, work and play - and all points in between.
• All of this will change our views of mobility.
• To deliver this vision of the future needs the foundations to be laid now for these future services
• Factories of the Future (FoF)
• Energy Efficient Buildings (EeB)
• Green Cars (GCI)
• Future Internet (FI)
• Smart health
• Smart transport
• Smart living
• Smart energy
• E-government
• Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID
� Economic development
� Sustainability
� Social inclusion
� Education
� Public services
� Improved R&D
� NG Products and Services
….. the strategic question is are we developing the right strategy? Not just in terms of technology, but also in considering what will society need? What futures do we have to consider now to lay the correct foundations? ……
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HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
Exponential Growth
Driving the next 10 years of Data Growth ...
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
84% CAGR
34% CAGR
FixedWireless
203% expected increase
in wireless traffic over fixed line
Crazy Idea
Abundance
Huawei Research 2012
Gb
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HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
What happens when we massage the numbers?
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
FixedWireless 3Wireless 2Wireless 1
92% CAGR
34% CAGR
84% CAGR
75% CAGR
230% Differencein traffic volume
Small changes in user behaviour can
result in big network demands
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HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
Telecoms and ICT has great potential
� Economic development: ICT is a critical element of the knowledge
economy e.g. BIG DATA, E-Gov, e-Education, Smart Cities etc
� Sustainability: ICT can deliver more sustainable services, distance
learning, remote working, improved health services and other
services to save and manage scarce resources
� Social inclusion: Universal access to services online will drive a
more participatory, cohesive society
� Education: Developing creativity and skills key to economic growth
� Public services: Delivering more effective and efficient public
services at a lower cost with greater inclusion
� Improved R&D: Supporting more collaborative models to drive the
Internet online Economy
� Products and Services: Next Generation services will be extensive,
include high-quality video streaming, enabling visual networking for
more effective remote working, advanced e-commerce and remote
access to powerful cloud computing
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Knowledge
Information
Data
Understanding
Deepening Pool of Knowledge and
Understanding
RENEWABLEEnergy Generation
SUSTAINABLE
FOSSIL FUELEnergy Generation
NON-SUSTAINABLE
MEDICAL
EDUCATION
Gov-SERVICES
ENTRETAINMENT
TRANSPORT
MANUFACTURING
Effective Efficient ManagedDATA Exploited for Resource Usage
SHOPPING
TOURISM
Growing CO2Emissions
Lowering CO2Emissions
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
Changes expected over the next 10-15 years
• Global population growth by 2050 between 8-9 billion
• Aging society, with many baby boomers retiring from workforce
• Growth of Urban populations• Multinational societies
• Life influenced by social media
• R&D a mainstream focus• Digital age comes to maturity
• Cloud based network, Digital
economy, M2M, etc.
• Technical progress drive the
development of new industries• Nanotechnology and Bio-technology
enter mainstream• More connected users and devices
• A new era in Science and Technology • Constant innovation drives the need
for ongoing learning• Life long education through virtual and
interactive methods• Increase in visual learning, becoming
fun based• Rise in digital innovators and small
business start-ups
• Alternative sources of power become embedded e.g. Solar power, wind,
Car (Any network connected,either part-time or always on)
TV (Dedicated set for recievinga video signal)
Smart Meter (Electricity, Gas orwater device)
Tablet (iPad or Ultrabook typedevice)
iPod (standalone device)
Cell Phone (All types)
PC (either laptop or desktoptype)
Already 20Bln devices capable of being
connected
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These predictions do not account for
electronic tagging e.g. RFID
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
The traditional Model
Voice & SMS Mobile broadband Ultra Broadband
Moderate performance
B
ARPU & Revenue
BB ConnectivityBandwidth & Traffic
Cost
A C
Digital EconomyNew Revenues
New Business
Evolving the Model
User Generated ContentSocial Networking
High-Def DevicesEmerging 3D - Video
Consumer Electronics
D
C
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HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
What’s it really about ...
� Leadership, Innovation and Profitability
� The ecosystem means “partnership” and “co-
operation”
� New technologies or enhancements of old are
needed to solve the Wireless dilemma ... LTE may
just be a part solution
� Near-field communications, LiFi, advertising,
marketing, and social- and location-based
applications
� Software tools that provide stakeholders across
the telco, and even third parties, with better
visibility, both into the internal workings of the
business and into the wealth of customer data
that is held therein
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ordinary
natural
accessible
beneficial
valuable
handy
automatic
context
functional
sensible
legitimate
convenientcurrent
experimental
playful
universal
efficient
functional
immediate
useful
helpful
practical
familiar
efficient
second-nature
consistent
habitual
consumable
adaptable
usable
accustomed
profitable
exploitable
understood
essentialperceptive
constructive
effective
perceptive
open
serviceable
inherent
inclusive
the most transformative and thrilling period in human history ...
What the network needs to be ...
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
Conclusions
� The world will rely more on Digital Communications
� Services will be driven by Community needs and Security concerns
� The growth in data sharing will grow exponentially
� The BB telecoms sector is at the heart of adding value to society and all the economic sectors
� Partnering and Virtualization is key to savings and growth
� ICT can enable a GREENER Digital Economy
� …. a coordinated plan is needed to realise the maximum benefits across all our industries
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HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.
www.huawei.com
Huawei Confidential
Think the unthinkable and unimaginable as the key input to your strategy – Then double these estimates – Be a conduit to helping people help themselves – John Frieslaar
