MOBILITY TRANSFORMATION PROGRAM (MTX) VISION, STRATEGY, AND TACTICS

OCTOBER 2015 JONATHAN WALKER

RMI. Creating a clean, prosperous, and secure energy future.TM

2

Jon Walker

Rocky Mountain Institute

Manager: Mobility Transformation Program

BSME MEES

• 10 years as a design engineer in aerospace and IT• 2 years at RMI working on transforming personal mobility

BIO

3

THEORY OF CHANGE: START WITH THE WHOLE PICTURE

Just in Case ICE Vehicles

Personal Vehicle-Centric

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

Mobility delivered by personally-

owned/operated vehicles (POVs)

Mobility powered by internal

combustion and human drivers

Cities built for personal ICEs

The three elements of mobility are the system, the vehicles, and their mobility environment

4

PERSONAL MOBILITY IS EXTRAORDINARILY INEFFICIENT

Just In Case ICE Vehicles

Personal Vehicle-Centric

Underutilized:Our vehicles sit unused 95% of their life

Expensive: Mobility is the 2nd highest expense for U.S. families, and the highest expense for many low-income families

5

PERSONAL MOBILITY IS EXTRAORDINARILY INEFFICIENT

Just In Case ICE Vehicles

Personal Vehicle-Centric

Underutilized:Our vehicles sit unused 95% of their life

Expensive: Mobility is the 2nd highest expense for U.S. families, and the highest expense for many low-income families

Dirty:ICEs emit 1.2 Gigatons of CO2 each year, along with NOx and SOx.

Inefficient:About 1% of total energy used goes to actually moving people

6

PERSONAL MOBILITY IS A BROKEN SYSTEM

Just In Case ICE Vehicles

Personal Vehicle-Centric

Underutilized:Our vehicles sit unused 95% of their life

Expensive: Mobility is the 2nd highest expense for U.S. families, and the highest expense for many low-income families

Dirty:ICEs emit 1.2 Gigatons of CO2 each year, along with NOx and SOx.

Inefficient:About 1% of total energy used goes to actually moving people

Congested:Gridlock traffic, stress, and other indirect costs amount to almost $2T in societal expenditure in the existing system

Dangerous: Automobile accidents kill over 1,000,000 people each year,33,000 in the U.S. alone

Taxi/Limo/Shuttle/Carshare

Rental Car Public Transit Personal Vehicle Food All Utilities (electricity, natural gas, water, etc)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Market Size (U.S)

Series10

NG, Water, etc

Electricity

Tax, fees, etc

Financing

M&R

Insurance

Fuel

Depreciation

Ann

ual A

mer

ican

Spe

nd [B

illio

ns o

f $]

POWERFUL INCUMBENTS OWN THE $1 TRILLION PERSONAL MOBILITY MARKET, AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST CENTURY

For reference

8

-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Electrification Increased ICE Utilization Increased ICE Efficiency

U.S

. Per

sona

l Mob

ility

Em

issi

ons

(Gig

aton

CO

2 pe

r ye

ar)

EVEN AT VERY OPTIMISTIC PROJECTIONS, ATTEMPTS TO FIX THIS SYSTEM FALL SHORT

2015 2020 2025 2030

Elon Musk’s bullish prediction of EVs at 50% of sales in 2030 comes true

Major cities reach aggressive goal of 30% VMT reduction by 2030 All ICEs reach full CAFE

compliance by 2030

Just in Case

(POVs)ICEs

POV+ICE- Centric Cities

NO PARADIGM SHIFT

U.S. Personal Mobility Carbon Budget to avoid 2 degree C global temperature increase*

Just in Case

(POVs)ICEs

POV+ICE- Centric Cities

*Source: WRI and RMI analysis

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

BUT A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS MAKES NOW THE TIME TO DISRUPT THE $1T MARKET

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

Just in Case(POVs)

ICEs

POV+ICE-Centric Cities

9

Rise of the sharing economy

Social media ubiquity

Urban population growth

Flat per capita VMT & deferred vehicle ownership

Social Change

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

BUT A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS MAKES NOW THE TIME TO DISRUPT THE $1T MARKET

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

Just in Case(POVs)

ICEs

POV+ICE-Centric Cities

10

Rise of the sharing economy

Social media ubiquity

Urban population growth

Flat per capita VMT & deferred vehicle ownership

Data explosion and processing capability

Self-driving, connected vehicles

Battery & sensor costs dropping

Smart phones

Social Change Disruptive Technology

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

BUT A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS MAKES NOW THE TIME TO DISRUPT THE $1T MARKET

Just in Time(Mobility as

a Service)

Electric, Autonomous

Vehicles

Mobility-CentricCities

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

Just in Case(POVs)

ICEs

POV+ICE-Centric Cities

11

Rise of the sharing economy

Social media ubiquity

Urban population growth

Flat per capita VMT & deferred vehicle ownership

Data explosion and processing capability

Self-driving, connected vehicles

Battery & sensor costs dropping

Smart phones

Many cities, states, and the federal government enacting aggressive CO2 reduction goals

Some cities are enacting fossil-fueled trip reduction goals and programs

Social Change Disruptive Technology Societal Pressure

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

BUT A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS MAKES NOW THE TIME TO DISRUPT THE $1T MARKET

Just in Time(Mobility as

a Service)

Electric, Autonomous

Vehicles

Mobility-CentricCities

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

Just in Case(POVs)

ICEs

POV+ICE-Centric Cities

12

Rise of the sharing economy

Social media ubiquity

Urban population growth

Flat per capita VMT & deferred vehicle ownership

Data explosion and processing capability

Self-driving, connected vehicles

Battery & sensor costs dropping

Smart phones

Many cities, states, and the federal government enacting aggressive CO2 reduction goals

Some cities are enacting fossil-fueled trip reduction goals and programs

Social Change Disruptive Technology Societal Pressure

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

13

THERE IS ~$1 TRILLION ON THE TABLE TO DRIVE PARADIGM CHANGE

Just in Time (MaaS)

Electric, Autonomous

Vehicles

Mobility- Centric Cities

Just in Case (POVs)

ICEs

Personal ICE AMaaS Service0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Other Operating CostsVehicles CostsTax, fees, etcLoan InterestM&RInsuranceGasolineCar Payment

Aver

age

Mon

thly

Spe

nd [$

]

POV+ICE Cities

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

~$1Trillion/yr

• Disruptor Profit

• Consumer Savings

• Societal Savings

$0.60 per mile

$0.15 per mile

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES IN THE US ALONE COULD FALL BY 60%, GREATLY REDUCING PARKING AND CONGESTION

RMI analysis indicates that shared, electric, autonomous vehicles could economically and logistically serve all mobility needs to, from, and within urban areas. This requires 32M shared, electric, autonomous vehicles, which replace roughly 175M personally owned ICEs since each shared EV can do the work of 5-10 PoVsA. 32M shared, electric, autonomous vehicles could be manufactured in just 2 years at current production rates for US vehicles and with “gigafactory” battery production.

232

18

Personally Owned ICE Shared ICE (Bus, cab, etc)Personally owned EV Shared EV

58

5

5

32

Personally Owned ICE Shared ICE (Bus, cab, etc)Personally owned EV Shared EAV

A: http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB14SAVenergy_emissions.pdf and http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Jan-27-20132.pdf

250M total vehicles 100M total

vehicles

- 150,000,000 Vehicles

Today

2030

15

BY IMPLEMENTING THE ELEMENTS HOLISTICALLY, WE CAN REDUCE ANNUAL CO2e BY A FULL GIGATON AND BE UNDER CO2

BUDGET

2015 2020 2025 2030

Electric, Automated

Vehicles

Mobility- Centric Cities

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

Just in Time (Maas)

-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Electrified VMT Eliminated ICE VMT Increased ICE Efficiency

U.S

. Per

sona

l Mob

ility

Em

issi

ons

(Gig

aton

CO

2 pe

r ye

ar)

U.S. Personal Mobility Carbon Budget to avoid 2 degree C global temperature increase*

*Source: WRI and RMI analysis

Just in Case(POVs) ICEs

POV+ICE- Centric Cities

SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

16

STRATEGY: LEARN, TEST, SCALE

Google: EAV Pilot

UMTRI: Connected CityUber: Electric Taxi DC Transit: Single Pay Pilot London: AV Taxi Pilot

Singapore: AV Infrastructure Pilot

Waze: CaaS Pilot

Helsinki: Multi-modal city

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OUR STRATEGY IS DIFFERENT – WE WILL TARGET THE HOLISTIC SOLUTION IN A LEAD IMPLEMENTATION CITY (LIC) IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE

PARADIGM

Just in Case -> Just in Time(POVs -> MaaS)

ICEs -> EAVs

POV-centric -> eaMaaS-centric

ParadigmChange

CITY SELECTION

Income

Density

Population

942 Cities

89

Top 10

Austin - Boston - Chicago - DenverMinneapolis - NYC - Portland

San Francisco - SeattleWashington D.C.

July 31st

Sept. 3rd

1

2

3

4

AustinDenver

Austin (LIC) Denver (LSC)

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OUR STRATEGY ALLOWS US TO LEARN FROM WORLD LEADING EFFORTS, INTEGRATE THEM IN THE LIC, AND THEN SCALE THE HOLISTIC SOLUTION

Just in Case -> Just in Time(POVs -> MaaS) ICEs -> EAVs

POV-centric -> eaMaas-centric

ParadigmChange

Implement the holistic solution in a major U.S. city called the “Lead Implementation City” (LIC)

Learn and scale the solution worldwide

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THE HOLISTIC SOLUTION IS VITAL BECAUSE EACH ELEMENT SUPPORTS, STRENGTHENS, AND ACCELERATES THE OTHERS

Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

Electric, Autonomous Vehicles

(EAVs)

eaMaaS-Centric Cities

TransformativeParadigm

SYNERGYMaaS reduces the number of

vehicles in a city

Cities incentivize and enable MaaS business models

SYNERGYEAVs reduce pollution and

congestion

Cities provide infrastructure and regulations to enable and

accelerate EAVs

SYNERGYMaaS increases vehicle utilization, making electrification

and self-driving cost effective

EAVs reduce MaaS operating costs and improve logistics

21

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Annual VMT Distribution Polynomial (Annual VMT Distribution)Annual VMT Quantile (230M Registered LDVs in the U.S.)

WITH 3 TRILLION ICE VMT TO EVENTUALLY DISPLACE, WE MUST CAREFULLY CHOOSE OUR ENTRY-POINTS FOR MAXIMUM ROI

Annual VMT per

Registered Vehicle

~3 Trillion ICE VMTWorth $1T

1. Interoperable transit data (ITD)2. Commuting as a service (CaaS)3. Fleet Electrification4. Self-Driving Vehicles5. Mobility Oriented Development

FY2016 LIC Projects

22

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Annual VMT Distribution Polynomial (Annual VMT Distribution)Annual VMT Quantile (230M Registered LDVs in the U.S.)

OUR PROJECTS ARE CAREFULLY SELECTED ENTRY-POINTS THAT KICK-START VALUE CREATION IN ELEMENTS OF THE NEW PARADIGM

Annual VMT per

Registered Vehicle Interoperable transit data is a critical piece

of infrastructure that enables MaaS business models like commuting as a service. It also immediately boosts public transit ridership by up to 10%.

Annual VMT per

Registered Vehicle

FY2016 LIC Projects1. Interoperable transit data (ITD)2. Commuting as a service (CaaS)3. Fleet Electrification

23

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Annual VMT Distribution Polynomial (Annual VMT Distribution)Annual VMT Quantile (230M Registered LDVs in the U.S.)

OUR PROJECTS ARE CAREFULLY SELECTED ENTRY-POINTS THAT KICK-START VALUE CREATION IN ELEMENTS OF THE NEW PARADIGM

Annual VMT per

Registered Vehicle

1. Interoperable transit data (ITD)2. Commuting as a service (CaaS)3. Fleet Electrification

FY2016 LIC Projects

The Commuting as a Service (CaaS) project develops new business models and implements them through collaboration with cities, transit agencies, and TNCs. It heavily leverages the ITD work as a basis.

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Annual VMT Distribution Polynomial (Annual VMT Distribution)Annual VMT Quantile (230M Registered LDVs in the U.S.)

OUR PROJECTS ARE CAREFULLY SELECTED ENTRY-POINTS THAT KICK-START VALUE CREATION IN ELEMENTS OF THE NEW PARADIGM

Annual VMT per

Registered Vehicle

Annual VMT per

Registered Vehicle

1. Interoperable transit data (ITD)2. Commuting as a service (CaaS)3. Fleet Electrification

FY2016 LIC Projects

It is economical today to electrify high-mileage vehicles and greatly reduce ICE VMT. Prime targets are PTCs and certain business fleet vehicles.

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RMI MTX – ACCELERATING THE PARADIGM SHIFT

Electric, Automated

Vehicles

Mobility- Centric Cities

DISRUPTIVE PARADIGM SHIFT

Just in Time (Maas)Just in Case

(POVs)ICEs

POV+ICE- Centric Cities