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IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
1
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODEL „DRIVING FORCES – PRESSURE –
STATE – IMPACT - RESPONSE” IN FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE
UPPER NISHAVA CATCHMENT
I. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH
The development of a model "Driving Forces - Pressures - State - Impact -
Response" proposed by the European Environment Agency /EEA/ is the first step
in flood risk assessmenty. (Fig. 1).
Figure. 1. Conceptual framework for assessing flood risk
RESPONSES
DRIVING FORCES
IMPACT
PRESSURE
STATE
Climate
Landscape factors
of the basin
Landuse changes
Urbanization
Transport infrastructure
Soil sealing
Damages
Social-economic
consequences
Environmental
consequences
Prevention, protection and
mitigation measures for
negative consequences
Historical and future floods
Types of floods
Maximum run-off
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
2
In the preliminary risk assessment, one of the simplest methods for estimating the
flood hazard is the introduction of the "criterion of horizontal distance". A horizontal
distance between the object /settlement, industrial objects, cultural sites, railway
and road network, protected natural areas, etc./ can be determined and located
near the river Nisava (Fig. 2).
Figure 2. Schematic sketch of the criterion of horizontal distance
Our preliminary research showed that the distance of objects at 200 m from the
river is suitable for the conditions of the river basin Nišava.
According to the directive 60/2007-EU, the following categories are used in
assessment of adverse effects: "human health", "industry", "environment" and
"cultural heritage".
II. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODEL „DRIVING FORCES – PRESSURE –
STATE – IMPACT - RESPONCE”
DRIVING FORCES
река 1
река 2
населено
място 1 населено
място 2
населено
място 3
X m
X m X m
X m
заплаха от
наводнения
риск от
наводнения
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
3
According to the conceptual framework of the model /Fig.1/ drivers for flood
formation are the climate and landscape conditions of the research basin.
Climatic factors
1.Atmosferic-circulation systems
The geographical location of the territory of Serbia defines the invasion of air
masses coming predominantly from the northwest (Ducic, Radovanovic, 2005).
The types of air masses that determine the weather conditions in the basin of
Nishava River are Arctic - sea, continental arctic, continental polar, polar - marine,
tropical - continental, tropical sea.
Fig. 3 Hydrometrical network within Nishava River Basin
2. Air temperature
The analysis of data from 55 weather stations for the period 1946-2006 shows
that the highest average monthly temperatures are in July and lowest in January.
In the northern part of Serbia, the average annual temperatures are between 10.8
and 11.5 ° C, and in the lowlands of Central and Southern Serbia temperatures
are between 10.0 and 12.1 ° C.
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
4
Precipitation factors
The average precipitation in the territory of Serbia is 699.7 mm / year. The mode
of precipitation is very diverse, since the annual rainfall in different parts of the
country reaches extreme values (1500 mm drainage area of White River Drim to
900 mm in the upper parts of the river Ibar river or river Plavska Lepenitsa).
Generally, the month of greatest rainfall is June, and the month of least - February
or March.
Landscape factors
1. Lithological basis
Nishava River Basin at Pirot, without Visocica, is composed of limestone,
represented by marly-sandstone passing into massive limestone, urgonian
limestone with impurities of shales, marls and sands.
Fig. 4 Geological structure of Nishava River Basin
2. Landscape
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
5
Serbia is a country with mostly hilly and mountainous terrain type (65% of the
territory) and 60,000 km2 of agricultural land are permanent. About 30% of the
Danube Basin in Serbia is forested (ICPDR, 2006). The relief within the river
catchment is mostly mountainous.
3. Soils
Three main types of soils are typical of the region - organic-rich black soil
(chernozem), slightly acidic brown podzolic, podzolic soils infertile.
Fig. 5 Soils in Nishava River Basin
4. Vegetation
The biodiversity in Nišava River Basin is characterized by big diversity. Each
altitude zone is characterized by a certain type of vegetation. In eastern Serbia,
the vegetation is represented by three main types: meadows, pastures, forests.
PRESSURE
The main factors which generally intensify torrential processes are changes in land
use, soil sealing, urbanization and transport infrastructure.
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
6
1. Changes in land use
Figure. 6 Land use in Nishava River Basin / Corine, 2006 /
These destructive changes in the land cover and landscape often weaken the
retention and bioecological functions of forests and strengthen-torrential erosion.
1. Soil sealing
Soil sealing in recent years is estimated to be substantial global threat not only to
soils but also to intensification of the surface run-off formation during heavy rains.
Compared with 2000, in 2006 the growth of soil sealing rate is insignificant - with
10.69 km2. Almost negligible in 2006 is the increased the area of industrial and
commercial buildings and road infrastructure and the area of sports, and
recreation and urban fabric slightly decreased.
2. Urbanization
Generally, urbanization increases the frequency of flood occurrence and reduces
the time for formation of high waves due to soil sealing. Flooded river terraces of
Nišava river and its tributaries are a preferred place for business development.
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
7
The settlement network is comprised of 307 cities /incl. 7 cities/. The density of
urban settlement network is 7.5 / 100 km2. 72% of the total area of settlements lay
within the 200m buffer zone around rivers.
Fig. 7 Settlement network inNishava River Basin
1. Transportation infrastructure
The transport infrastructure intensifies the processes of floods formation and thier
catastrophic effect. The еxisting road network in Nishava river basin has
inadequate drainage systems, which redirects surface runoff from other areas
during intense rainfall, which together with the local surface runoff can cause a
rapid rise in river level and a flood event. It should also be taken into account that
the transport infrastructure is crucial for the evacuation of the population and
access to emergency service in case of flooding.
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
8
Fig. 8 Transport infrastructure in the buffer zone of 200 m in Nishava River Basin
VI.STATE
The described climatic and landscape features of the catchment of Nisava river
and the changes occurred in the recent years in termds of land use, intensification
of urbanization processes and infrastructure development are key factors for
formation and occurrence of floods in the river basin. Particularly devastating
torrential floods causing considerable damage and casualties are those in 1929,
1942-1943, 1957-1958, 1980, 30.11.2007, 15.05.2010
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
9
Fig. 9 Floods in Nishava River Basin
VII. IMPACT
VII.1. Negative effects of past floods
No information about past floods in Nishava River Basin was found in the sources
of information. However, it can be concluded that they are important primarily in
relation to protected categories "human health" and "business".
VII.2. Potential negative consequences
The potential risk in the Nishava River Basin exists regarding the protected
categories "human health", "business", "environment" and "cultural heritage".
Table 1. Affected people
Settlements
within a 200 m
Size of
urban
Area of the
city,
Population,
number of
Occupancy
density of
Number
of people
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
10
buffer zone
from rivers
area,
km2
located in
200 m
buffer zone
of rivers,
km2
people population,
prs/ km2
affected
Godech 6,14 3,72 4425 720 2677
Bela palanka
2,17
0,69 8112
3731 2575
Trun
Dimitrovgrad 1,91 0,93 6247 3270 3052
Pirot 7,96 1,87 38432 4828 9039
Nis 22,32 1,87 177972 7974 32417
Table 2. Potential risk category „Industry”
Pro
tec
t
ed
are
a
Criterion Total In buffer
200m
% E
co
no
mic
ac
tivity
Industry
Industrial and
commercial objects,
km2
8,45 1,09 12,9
Transport infrastricture
Lenght of the
transport
infrastructure, km
946,176 271,426 28,7
Total lenght of the
railway network, km
175,847 61,48 35,0
Agriculture
Complexes of 436,57 55,86 13,0
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
11
fragmented
agricultural land, km2
Vineyards, km2 1,53 0,31 20,3
Non-irrigated arable
land, km2 268,47 39,90 14,9
Agricultural land with
significant areas of
natural vegetation,
km2 506,72 102,82 20,3
Pasture, km2 109,83 10,47 9,5
Fruit and berries
plantations 0,73 0,11 15,1
"E
nv
iron
me
nt"
Protected areas Natura 2000
Birds Directive 467,28 58,10 12,4
Habitats Directive 453,05 70,73 15,6
Protected areas /R.
Serbia/ 823,94 74,69 9,1
Table 3. Potential flood risk for the transport infrastructure in Nishava River Basin
Class roads Length of road network,
km
Length of
road
network,
located in
the buffer
zone 200,
km
% Of the
length of the
road network
located in
bufernnata
200 m area.
Highway 6,843 1,369 20
Highway project 10,057 2,645 26,3
Second class roads 304,300 86,092 28,3
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
12
First class roads 170,232 40,379 23,7
Third class roads 454,742 140,939 31,0
Table 4. Flood risk and NATURA 2000 objects
Name Area km2 Area km2 in 200
m buffer zone
% of area in 200
m buffer zone
Birds directive 2009/147/ЕС
Noevci 3,69 0,82 22,2
Ruy 173,45 18,38 10,59
Rayanovci 90,24 10,70 11,85
Ponor 128,19 16,71 13,03
West Balkan 71,69 11,47 15,99
Habitats directive 92/43/ЕЕС
Rebro 2,13 0,91 42,72
Dragoman 109,15 13,61 12,46
West Balkan
Mountain and
Forebalkan
274,21 48,60
17,72
Kurvav kamuk 37,80 2,12 5,6
Ruy 17,06 5,25 30,77
Lubash 12,67 0,20 1,57
Protected reas /R.Serbia/
Erma river gorge 0,15 0,11 73,3
Temna dupka 0,19 0,03 15,78
Kotlite 0,17 0,15 88,23
Zaskogo 0,27 0,11 40,74
Uruchnik 0,16 0,08 50,00
Klisura Osanicke
reke 80,84 7,36
9,1
IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia
EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme
“Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
13
Bifurkacija reke
Nerodimke 74,21 66,81
90,02
VIII. ANSWER
The measures taken in Nishava River Basin in the past are engineering-technical
/corrections of the watercourses, construction of dams and protective walls/. The
river flow is regulates within the cities Godech and Dimitrovgrad.
The analysis of the functioning system of measures for flood protection shows that
it is not particularly efficient in cases of extreme floods with very little repetition.
Acceptable level of protection could be achieved only after detailed mapping of the
flood risks under various scenarios. An adequate scheme of measures (hydro-
technical) and non-engineetring measures needs to be determined.
This publication was elaboraed with the assistance of the European Union, through IPA Cross-border co-operation programme
CCI No 2007CB16IPO006. The contents of this publication is a responsibility of the SRD-SU „St. Kliment
Ohridski” and should in no way be accepted as a statement of the European Union or the Managaing Authority of the programme.