Modeled spatial and temporal distribution of Euphausia pacifica in the California

Current from a coupled ocean circulation

model and individual-based model

Jeffrey G. Dorman1, Thomas Powell1, William Sydeman2, Steven Bograd3, Jarrod Santora2

1University of California, Berkeley - Berkeley, CA

2Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research - Petaluma, CA

3NOAA-NMFS, Environmental Research Division - Pacific Grove, CA

Roadmap

• Introduction to 2005 in the California Current

• Individual Based Model (POPCYCLE)

• ROMS Model for Central/Northern California

• 2001 vs 2005 Comparison of:– Spatial Distribution of Euphausia pacifica– Population Growth of Euphausia pacifica

California Current Upwelling Ecosystem

(Field JC et al., Prog Ocean, 2006 68:238-270)

Euphausia pacifica in the California Current

(Durant JM et al., Clim Res, 2007 33:271-283)

Average Date of Spring

Transition

April 4th

Year 2005 Spring

Transition

May 24th

(Kosro PM et al., Geophys Res Letters, 2006 33:L22S03; doi:10.1029/2006GL027072)

2005 in the California Current:Delayed Upwelling

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mean productivity = 0.67Cassin’s Auklet

Delayed Upwelling:Increased Trophic Mismatch

Chi

nook

Sal

mon

Jac

k E

scap

emen

t (S

acra

men

to R

iver

)

Delayed Upwelling:Increased Trophic Mismatch

Why an Individual Based Model?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Length (mm)

# o

f E

. pa

cif

ica

0200

400600800

100012001400

16001800

3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Length (mm)

# o

f E

. p

acif

ica

Summer Winter

Advection Grazing Mortality

Euphausia pacifica Length (mm)

# of

E.

paci

fica

Get Individual Physical Data

Get Domain Physical Data

Reseed PopulationBegin Population Loop

Calculate Growth

Assign Life Stage

Adult Female?

Reproduce?Calculate Reproductive

Weight

All Individuals Evaluated?

yes

yes

no

Next Individual

no

Update Position

Update Population and Output Population Stats

End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program

no

Mortality

new individuals via eggs

yes or no

yes

yes

Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica

Get Individual Physical Data

Get Domain Physical Data

Reseed PopulationBegin Population Loop

Calculate Growth

Assign Life Stage

Adult Female?

Reproduce?Calculate Reproductive

Weight

All Individuals Evaluated?

yes

yes

no

Next Individual

no

Update Position

Update Population and Output Population Stats

End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program

no

Mortality

new individuals via eggs

yes or no

yes

yes

Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica

Get ROMS Data

Bioenergetics

Particle Tracking

Output Data

U-velocity, V-velocity, W-velocity

Temperature, Salinity, Phytoplankton

POPCYCLE Model Time

Saved ROMS Data Time 2

Saved ROMS Data Time 1

POPCYCLE – Get ROMS Data

ρ,u,ν

ρ,u,ν ρ,u,ν

ρ,u,ν

POPCYCLE - Bioenergetics

Egg DevelopmentTemperature Dependent

GrowthFood Dependent

ReproductionLife Stage DependentFood & Time Dependent

Stage ProgressionWeight Dependent

MortalityPredationStarvation Ohman MD 1984

POPCYCLE – Particle Tracking4th Order Runge-Kutta Methods

Diel Vertical MigrationCue To Migrate = Light Difference (Isolume Tracking)

Swim Speed = Maximum Swim Speed * Scale Factors

Scale Factors (range from 0 –1) include Light, Size, Hunger, Life Stage, Food, Position

Weight (ug C) Food Concentration (ug C)

Sca

le F

acto

r

0

1

POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATSDifferences

• Temporal Interpolation• Run Offline

• No Interpolation• Run Real-Time

POPCYCLE ROMS FLOATS

POPCYCLEFLOATS

30 Day Particle Tracks Day 30 Final Position

POPCYCLEFLOATS

POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATSDifferences

• Temporal Interpolation• Run Offline

• Variable Population Size• Stage Structured Population• Home-Grown Code

• No Interpolation• Run Real-Time

• Static Population Size• Single Stage Population• Community Support

POPCYCLE ROMS FLOATS

ROMS

N-P-Z-D Model

Individual Based Model

Phytoplankton

Water Velocity, Diffusivity Temp, Salinity

Regional Ocean Modeling System

Coos Bay, OR

Cape Mendocino, CA

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

West Longitude

Depth (m

)

•Forcing from NCEP-NARR (3 hr)BULK_FLUXES, EMINUSP, LONGWAVE_OUT,Analytical ATM Pressure

•Boundary from ECCO (3 day)FSCHAPMAN, M2FLATHER M3RADIATION, TRADIATIONNudge (in) = 5 d

•Model Spun-up for 1 year

•NPZD Model

•Daily Averaged Output Saved

2005 ROMS Satellite ComparisonTemperature

Offshore Onshore

Satellite

ROMS

Satellite

ROMS

Tem

pera

ture

2005 ROMS Satellite ComparisonChlorophyll a

Offshore Onshore

Satellite

ROMS

Satellite

ROMS

Chl

orop

hyll

a

IBM - Initial Seeding Locations

POPCYCLE Model Options

1000 Particles Released per Site

Initialized on January 5, 2001 & 2005

Model Run for 200 days

Initial Particle Weight = 40 μg C (i.e. small furcilia larvae)

Starvation

No Predation

No Reproduction

Coos Bay

Mendocino

Bodega

Pescadero

Pt. Sur

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

2001 2005

Spatial Variability - Bodega Release

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

Particle W

eight (μg C

)

Particle W

eight (μg C

)

C. Mendocino C. Mendocino

Alongshore Currents

2001

2005Lat

itud

e

Year Day

Median Particle Position

Blue = 2001 Red = 2005

Bodega

Mendocino

Pescadero

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

deRelease Location January 5

Median Location March 21

Mean Particle Weight (+/- 1 std.)

Mendocino Bodega Pescadero

Year Day

Blue = 2001 Red = 2005P

artic

le W

eigh

t (μ

g C

)

Additional Seeding Locations

Coos Bay

Mendocino

Bodega

Pescadero

Pt. Sur

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

Coos Bay

Mendocino

Bodega

Pescadero

Pt. Sur

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

Year Day

Lat

itud

e

Particle D

ensity2001

2005

Year Day

Lat

itud

eP

article Mean W

eight

2001

2005

Conclusions• Increased Northerly Transport out of Central

California during Winter 2005 (Compared to Winter 2001)

• Greater Starvation in Central California during 2005• Decrease in Spring Particle Weight in 2005

(Compared to 2001)

(Durant JM et al., Clim Res, 2007 33:271-283)

AcknowledgementsFunding and Support

• California SeaGrant & Ocean Protection Council (Project No. OPC-ENV-07)

• NOAA Fisheries and the Environment (FATE)

• California Energy Commission: Public Interest Energy Research – Biological Impacts of Climate Change in California (BICCCA)

Model Development

• Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Developers & Community

• Hal Batchelder, Oregon State University

Data Sources

• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

• Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI)

Spatial Variability - Bodega Release

Nor

th L

atitu

de

West Longitude

Particle W

eight (μg C

)

C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino

Spatial Variability - Bodega Release

Particle W

eight (μg C

)

C. Mendocino C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino C. Mendocino

Nor

th L

atitu

de

West Longitude

Bodega Release

Par

ticle

Wei

ght (

μg

C)

20012002

2006

200320042007

2005

Median Particle Position – Jan. 5 through Mar. 21

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

Year Day

Mean Particle Weight

POPCYCLE vs ROMS FLOATS

Particle Tracking in Popcycle

DVM in POPCYCLE

Linked List (Mortality and Reproduction)

MBARI M2 Mooring – Temperature (deg C)

ROMS at M2 Location – Temperature (deg C)

Year Day

Dep

th (

m)

Individual Based Models

• ROMS – FLOATS

• LTRANS – offline

• POPCYCLE - offline

• BOLTS

ROMS VerificationSatellite Temperature

Annual Mean Temperature Annual Mean Temperature

2005 ROMS Data2005 MODISA Satellite Data

Annual Mean Chlorophyll a

Annual Mean Chlorophyll a

Get Individual Physical Data

Get Domain Physical Data

Reseed PopulationBegin Population Loop

Calculate Growth

Assign Life Stage

Adult Female?

Reproduce?Calculate Reproductive

Weight

All Individuals Evaluated?

yes

yes

no

Next Individual

no

Update Position

Update Population and Output Population Stats

End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program

no

Mortality

new individuals via eggs

yes or no

yes

yes

Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica

2004

2004

2005

2005

2006

2006

Cumulative Chlorophyll a

Blue = 2001 Red = 2005

POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATSDifferences

(Kosro PM et al., Geophys Res Letters, 2006 33:L22S03; doi:10.1029/2006GL027072)

Spatial Variability - Bodega Release

Nor

th L

atitu

de

West Longitude

Particle W

eight (μg C

)

C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino

C. Mendocino

Year Day

Lat

itud

eT

otal Weight

2001

2005

POPCYCLE- Output

Particle Update NetCDF File

General Info Bioenergetics Position

Particle ID Weight z-position (meters)

Most Recent Food Hunger Factor x-position (meters)

Most Recent Temp. Stage y-position (meters)

Most Recent Salinity Time of Last Reproduction x-position (grid-units)

Grounded Flag Time of Last Molt y-position (grid-units)

Bounded Flag Reproductive Weight z-position (grid-units

Longitude

Latitude

Particle Record NetCDF File Other ASCII Files

Particle ID Stage-structured summary at each time-step

Sex Survivors File

Time of Birth/Death Predation File

Cause of Death Starvation File

Parent ID

Year Day 90 Year Day 180

Difference in Cumulative Chlorophyll a2005 - 2001

West Longitude

Nor

th L

atitu

de

West Longitude

C. Mendocino C. Mendocino