Modeling the combined coastal and inland hazards from high-impact hurricanes
Project TeamPrincipal Investigator: Isaac Ginis, Graduate School of OceanographyCo-PIs: D. Ullman, T. Hara, A. Becker, P. Rubinoff and W. Huang (FSU)Graduate Students: K. Rosa, X. Chen, M. Ali JisanCollaborator: P. Stempel (RISD)
CRC 4th Annual Meeting March 27-28, 2019
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CRC 3rd Annual Meeting Feb. 28 – March 1, 2018The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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• Advance coupled hurricane, coastal ocean circulation/storm surge, wave, and hydrological models in the New England region and transition the developed new modeling capabilities to the real-time ADCIRC-Surge Guidance System (ASGS) and Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA).
• Implement the URI hazard impact modeling methodology for critical infrastructure and facilities and 3D visualization into ASGS and CERA.
Program Goals
CRC 3rd Annual Meeting Feb. 28 – March 1, 2018The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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This project contributes to meeting the requirements of ADCIRC-Surge Guidance System (ASGS) and Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) main users within federal agencies, including users within FEMA, USACE and NOAA NWS, and decision makers at state and municipal levels in New England.
End-User Focus
Moshassuck river
Woonasquatucket river
Hurricane Barrier
New England is especially vulnerable to inland flooding since the rivers are relatively short and high river discharge resulting from heavy rain is more likely.
Inland flooding may coincide with the storm surge due to strong winds.
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Fox Point Hurricane Barrier
Providence
1. Importance of Combined Coastal and Inland Flooding in New England
Narragansett Bay
Combined rivers discharge from two rivers during a slow moving hurricane
computed from the HEC-RAS model and applied as inflow forcing in ADCIRC.
The model water level just north of the (closed) Fox Point Hurricane Barrier
and the resulted flooding in Providence, RI.
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1. Importance of Combined Coastal and Inland Flooding in New England
Discharge from two rivers
Water level north the Barrier
Model flooding in Providence, RI
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2. Advancing ADCIRC modeling system in New England
Prior mesh: 803549 nodes, 1577981 elementsNew mesh: 1189763 nodes, 2335222 elementsNew mesh has about 50% more nodes/elements than prior mesh
New Mesh Prior Mesh
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2. Advancing ADCIRC modeling system in New England: Connecticut Valley
New Mesh Prior Mesh
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2. Advancing ADCIRC modeling system in New England: Connecticut River
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2. Advancing ADCIRC modeling system in New England: Boston Harbor
New Mesh
Prior Mesh
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Uniform wind field
Sea state dependent Cd
!"#
Wind stress algorithm
(Reichl et al. 2014)
A. Uniform wind experiment: (shoaling of fetch-dependent wind waves)
• Wind speed: 10, 30, 50m/s• Wind direction: normal to the shoreline.• Slope: 1/2000 ~ 1/100
B. Hurricane wind experiment: (shoaling of hurricane-generated waves)
• Maximum wind: 65m/s, forward speed: 10m/s
• Angle of attack: normal to the shoreline.• Slope: 1/2000 (gentle), 1/200 (steep)
WAVEWATCH III wave model
Directional-wavenumber spectrum
3. Advancing ADCIRC physics: sea-state dependent wind stress in shallow waters
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Uniform wind experiment: 30 m/s
Significant Wave Height Mean Wave Length
Cd / CddeepMean square slope fetch=100km
fetch=750km
3. Advancing ADCIRC physics: sea-state dependent wind stress in shallow waters
Shoaling changes the wave field and wind stress (Cd).
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Uniform winds: 15 - 50 m/s
Range of realistic wave condition:• Strongly forced: 50m/s,
fetch=100km• Fully developed: 15m/s,
fetch=750km
fetch=750km fetch=100km
Cd is 10%~25% larger during shoaling than in the deep water, with a larger enhancement over a steeper slope.
3. Advancing ADCIRC physics: sea-state dependent wind stress in shallow waters
RF
LF
RR
LR
Slope=1/200Deep Water Slope = 1/2000
Hs
Cd
UT=10m/s
Hurricane Experiments
Wind stress (Cd ) is strongly modified by shoaling. With a steeper bottom slope (1/200), Cd may be enhanced by more than 100% in left-front of the hurricane.
3. Advancing ADCIRC physics: sea-state dependent wind stress in shallow waters
Rainfall runoff near Hartford in Connecticut River Watershed
Input: Rainfall and upstream inflow
0246810
8/15/1995
8/16/1995
8/17/1995
8/18/1995
8/19/1995
8/20/1995
8/21/1995
8/22/1995
Rainfall at Hartford (inch)
Hurricane Diane (1955)
020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000
8/15/1995
8/16/1995
8/17/1995
8/18/1995
8/19/1995
8/20/1995
8/21/1995
8/22/1995
Inflow from upstream (ft3/s)
4. Implementation Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in Southern New England
Simulated storm runoff in Hartford during Hurricane Diane in 1955
0.00E+00
5.00E+04
1.00E+05
1.50E+05
2.00E+05
2.50E+05
8/1
5/19
55
8/1
6/19
55
8/1
7/19
55
8/1
8/19
55
8/1
9/19
55
8/2
0/19
55
8/2
1/19
55
8/2
2/19
55
8/2
3/19
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Flow (cfs) in Hartford during Hurricane Diane
4. Implementation Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in Southern New England
The maximum recorded flow in Hartford is 200,000 cfs
5. Advancing the URI Hurricane Boundary Layer model applications
Simulation of Hurricane Irma (2017) during landfall in Florida
Surface roughnessParametric model HBL model
Parametric model HBL model
5. Advancing the URI Hurricane Boundary Layer model applications
A swath of the maximum wind speed simulated by the HBL model in Hurricane Irma (2017). As the hurricane moves from sea to land, the surface roughness it encounters abruptly increases causing a rapid decrease in wind speed, captured by the model and the observations. The NHC intensity estimates appear to be a Saffir Simpson category higher over land.
5. Advancing the URI Hurricane Boundary Layer model applications
A swath of the maximum wind speed simulated by the HBL model in Hurricane Irma (2017) without land roughness effect.
Collecting from end-users “disaster consequence thresholds” and integrating into hazard prediction models
Time incremented consequences as
storm unfolds
I worry that untreated sewage will get into Narragansett Bay
–Waste Water Treatment Plant manager
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6. Advancing hazard impact modeling and 3D Visualization
Coastal Resiliency Symposium – October 16, 2018
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The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Solicit input on needs for modeling for real time forecast of risks and
impacts and integrating into their systems
• RI Emergency Management Association Higher Education Consortium
(January, 2019)
• RI Emergency Management Agency Leadership (March, 2019)
• Center for Emergency Preparedness and Response, RI Department of
Health (March, 2019)
• To be scheduled: Municipal Emergency Managers Association, RI Alliance
for Business Resilience, etc.
Collaborate with state agencies on disaster consequence thresholds
collection (2019-2020)
• Prioritize infrastructure assets to be evaluated
• Mentoring students to interview and engage emergency managers
Training on use of tools (2020)
• Rhode Island Emergency Management Emergency Support Function
liaisons of agencies using forecast and impacts models for planning,
response and recovery
• Regional emergency managers integrating ADCIRC and CERA
End User Engagement
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• High-resolution ADCIRC mesh along the entire southern New
England coast from western Connecticut to northern
Massachusetts.
• Sea state dependent wind stress (drag coefficient) and other
physics upgrades.
• Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in CT, RI and MA.
• URI hurricane boundary layer model for the entire U.S. coastal
region.
• Completed integration of the URI hazard impact model and 3D
visualization.
What will be transitioned to ADCIRC-Surge Real-Time Guidance System by June 30, 2020?
