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Modeling the Insurgent Activities with a Geographic Information System: A Case Study from Iraq
MANOJ K. JHA1, BHEEM KATTEL
2, AND MARCUS CARWELL
3
Morgan State University
1700 East Cold Spring Lane
Baltimore, MD 21251, USA [email protected] ,
[email protected] ,
[email protected]
Abstract: - This paper investigates the root causes of insurgency and exploits a Geographic Information System
(GIS) to model the effects of terrain and urban infrastructure on insurgent behavior. It develops a mathematical
model that can predict the likelihood of an individual turning into an insurgent based on various contributory
factors. Insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan has been on the rise, primarily to fight the United States (U.S.)-led
coalition forces. Insurgents often seek complex terrain and urban infrastructure to ambush U.S.-led coalition forces
which are carrying out military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Using examples from Iraq we model spatial and
temporal trends in insurgent activities with a GIS, which may help understand the overall insurgency and behavior
of insurgents who carry out attacks against U.S-led coalition forces.
Key words: - terrain and urban infrastructure, insurgency, GIS.
1. Introduction
Insurgency is not a new phenomenon. It has existed
for over 100 years in many parts of the world, such
as many African countries, Thailand, Somalia, Nepal,
Kashmir, Iraq, and Afghanistan, to name a few. In
this paper we explore the literature to understand the
root causes of insurgency. We develop a
mathematical model that may predict the likelihood
of an individual turning into an insurgent due to
various contributory factors. Finally, we exploit the
Geographic Information System (GIS) to model
insurgency trends over space and time in Iraq, which
may help understand the influence of terrain and
urban infrastructure on insurgent behavior. In the
next section we discuss the root causes of insurgency.
1.1 Root Causes of Insurgency
No human being is born corrupt or insurgent. It is
the upbringing, the environment, social and
economic factors that help in molding an individual’s
behavior in a positive or negative direction [1-2, 16,
21-22]. According to the Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA), insurgency is defined as, “a
protracted political-military activity directed toward
completely or partially controlling the resources of a
country through the use of irregular military forces
and illegal political organizations.” Since the
definition includes military forces and political
organizations, we can relate that to be a product of
human behavior and certain human motives.
Jim Ruvalcaba [20] has categorized insurgency
into anarchists, egalitarians, traditionalists, pluralists,
secessionists, reformists, and preservationists.
Anarchists wish to eliminate the institutionalized
political arrangement while the egalitarians seek to
impose a new system based on ultimate value of
distributional equality. Similarly, traditionalists seek
to displace political system based on sacred values
rooted in ancestral ties and religion and pluralists
seek to establish a system in which values of
individual freedom, liberty, and compromise are
emphasized. Secessionists renounce the existing
political system and seek to constitute a new and
independent political community, reformists seek
more political, social, and economic benefits but do
not reject the political community or system of
authority, and preservationists seek to maintain the
status quo because of the political, social, and
economic privileges they receive from it.
Thomas O’Connor [18] categorizes the motives
behind insurgent behavior into political, religious,
sociological, psychological, psychiatric, and
biological. He also classifies the contributory factors
causing terrorist behavior into ( 1a …., 12a ):
a. Precipitating factor ( 1a )
b. Biological: recognizes the influence of
hormonal changes ( 2a )
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c. Psychological: recognizes the influences of
rational choice and psychological drives
( 3a )
d. Psychological inclinations: relates terrorists
as psychopaths (Cooper, 1977), alienated,
depressive and a suicidal fanatic (Taylor,
1988; Laquer, 1999; and Stern, 2003) ( 4a )
e. Facilitating factor ( 5a )
f. Religious/philosophy: about half of all the
terrorist groups have a religious factor as
cover (Hoffman, 1993) ( 6a )
g. Sociological: Hypotheses such as frustration-
aggression, relative-depravation, negative-
identity, narcissistic-rage, and moral-
disengagement, have been attributed as
facilitating factor for insurgency behavior
( 7a )
h. Philosophical beliefs ( 8a )
i. Triggering factors ( 9a )
j. Opportunity ( 10a )
k. Means ( 11a )
l. Suitability of target ( 12a )
1.2 Mathematical Representation of the Likelihood
of an Individual turning into an Insurgent
Based on above classification, mathematically, the
likelihood of an individual turning into an Insurgent
(I) can be expressed as the following equation:
12122211 ..... aaaI ααα +++= (1)
where, 121......αα are the coefficients of the 12
contributing factors whose values represent the
relative strengths of the 12 factors contributing to
turning an individual into an insurgent. If enough
data were available then one could easily calculate I
which may help predict the likelihood of an
individual turning into insurgent. In order to
numerically represent the values of the 12
contributory factors, qualitative information may be
first collected and later represented on a scale of 1-10
where 1 being very weak and 10 being very strong.
For example, an insurgent can be interviewed and
asked to provide answers to the above 12
contributory factors on a scale of 1-10, which aided
in turning him into an insurgent. If sufficient number
of (say, 100 or more) such captured insurgents from
courtiers such as Iraq and Afghanistan were
interviewed, a reliable mathematical relationship as
noted in Eq. (1) can easily be established to predict
the likelihood of an individual turning into an
insurgent. Moreover, if sufficient insurgency data
were available, the relative sensitivities of the 12
contributory factors could also be analyzed. We will
perform this analysis in future works after collecting
data on insurgency from news media and worldwide
web.
2. Iraqi Insurgency
Based on the contributory factors mentioned above,
Iraqi insurgency can also be linked to human
behavior. The strategies followed by the insurgents
there, can be protracted war and urban warfare in
which the insurgents attempt to prolong the fight
because they know that ruling authority has force
advantage and the insurgents employ terrorism as a
key factor in destabilizing the society and its
government. Among the various tactics used by
insurgents in general [17], the Iraqi insurgents seem
to have utilized psychological, strategy of chaos, and
expressive terrorism, in which they try to take a swift
deceptive move aimed at getting the enemy off-
balance, or create an atmosphere of chaos to
demonstrate the government’s inability to impose
law and order, or to express dissatisfaction about
something (in this case, the occupation by the US
Military) without the intention of seizing power.
Economy being one of the main factors for rising
insurgency, the current widespread unemployment in
Iraq and Afghanistan can have major impact in the
recruitment of people for insurgent activities and
hence the increase in insurgency.
Sociological factors can also be aiding in the
rising number of insurgency and can be facilitating it.
Relative depravation hypothesis assumes that people
get frustrated when the privileges enjoyed by them
are taken away or similar others are getting favored
advantages. This frustration can help in changing an
individual into an insurgent.
Similarly, death or disability caused to a family
member by the government forces (justifiably or
otherwise) can create a feeling of hatred and
vengeance. This might ultimately be a reason for the
insurgent behavior.
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2.1 Iraqi Insurgency Following U.S.-Led Invasion
of Iraq
Since the US-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003
numerous insurgent attacks have led to the deaths of
many US-led coalition forces [3-15]. The insurgency
has proven to be a challenge for the US in the war
against Iraq. The insurgents implement attacks using
Improvised Explosive Device (IED). The primary
types of IED encountered by troops in Iraq are
command-wire, remote and vehicle born IEDs, or
VBIEDs (Michael J. Carden, March 2005), [3-15].
The command-wire IEDs use a detonation switch
such as a car alarm, at one end of the wire and the
explosives at the other end. Remote detonated IEDs
are ignited by a transmitter similar to a cordless
phone. The VBIEDs are vehicles turned bomb and
they may have an extra wire and can be detonated by
command wire or remote device. The use of IEDs
enables the insurgents to attack unexpectedly and
from long distances. When an attack is implemented
they are able to fade into the population undetected.
Because of these war tactics, being familiar with the
geography, terrain, and infrastructure and population
density can help locate insurgents and decrease
deaths from IEDs.
2.2 Geographic Profiling
Human spatial behavior in many forms can be
analyzed and profiled, including where victims were
picked up or dropped off, where phone calls were
made, credit card and automatic teller machine
(ATM) use, where graffiti or posters appear, and
where supplies were purchased. Geographic profiling
uses these and other factors to formulate a "hunting
ground" as well as the most likely locations of a
criminal within the hunting ground (Henry Kucera
2005), [3-15]. Geographic profiling has been
effective even when criminals are aware of the
technique and attempt to behave randomly. For these
and other reasons, geographic profiling has
significant potential as a tool for counter-insurgency.
The U.S. National Technology Alliance (NTA)
completed an evaluation of whether these types of
analysis tools would be useful to aid in the hunt for
insurgents, weapons caches and sources of bomb
materials, thereby reducing civilian and military
casualties (Henry Kucera, 2005), [3-15]. The basis
for geographic profiling is an algorithm that
calculates a pattern of events such as transportation
routes, topography and local geography. Being
familiar with the geography of the area helps
establish human spatial behavior.
2.3 History of Iraqi Regime
The Iraqi Empire formally known as the Ottoman
Empire (1299-1922) was invaded by the British
during World War I. In 1920 Iraq was mandated by
the UK and obtained its independence as a country in
1932 and the Republic of Iraq was declared in 1958.
Over the years a number of dictators ruled Iraq but
none more influential than Saddam Hussein. During
his rule Saddam Hussein waged a territorial war
against Iran from 1980 to 1988 and conquered
Kuwait in 1990. Iraq was driven out of Kuwait
during the Gulf War from January to February of
1991 by U.S.-led and UN coalition forces. During
the freeing of Kuwait the UN Security Council
(UNSC) called for Iraq to discard the complete
arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, long range
missiles and allow the UN council to confirm with an
inspection. Iraq refused UNSC inspections over a
period of 12 years and a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq
occurred in March 2003 with the defeat of Saddam
Hussein’s regime. The U.Ss and UN coalition forces
remained in Iraq to help rebuild the infrastructure and
implement a democracy while dealing with the
persistent attacks by insurgents. Iraq was given
sovereignty by the Coalition Provisional Authority in
June 2004. Iraqis voted on January 2005 to have a
Transitional National Assembly with 275 members to
outline a new constitution to begin elections at the
end of 2005.
2.4 Geography of Iraq
The Republic of Iraq is located 33 00 N, 44 00 E,
south east of Saudi Arabia bordering the Persian Gulf
and Kuwait (see, Fig. 1). Iraq sits in the Middle East
with Turkey to the Northwest, Jordan and Syria to
the west and Saudi Arabia to the South West with
Iran to the east and Kuwait to the South East. Iraq
covers an area 136,235 sq mi which is three times the
size of Ohio at 48,828 sq miles. Residing in the
Sunni Triangle (Fig. 2), Iraq is densely populated
consisting of Tikrit, Baqubah, Ramadi, Samarra and
Fallujah. This area consists of Sunni Muslims and the
Sunni Triangle (Fig. 2) which represented an area of
power for the Dictator Saddam Hussein, who was a
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Sunni Muslim. The Sunni Triangle borders the
Persian Gulf with the Tigris and Euphrates rivers
providing a source of environmental enrichment.
Figure 1. The Republic of Iraq and its
Surroundings
Figure 2 shows the extent of the Sunni Triangle,
which is roughly a triangular area with its three
corners at Baghdad (east side of the triangle), Ramadi
(west side), and Tikrit (north side). Iraq has four
geographical regions, the desert to the west, and the
mountains to the north between Upper Tigris and
Euphrates rivers near Iran. Tigris and Euphrates
rivers flow through the alluvial plane. The Tigris and
the Euphrates rivers’ wealth of natural resources have
caused wars throughout the centuries. The wars
have transformed different religions and cultures
based on the ruler at the time and the beginning
transformation of the Muslim nation we now call Iraq
today.
During the periods of 1453-1683, there was a
growth of territorial, economic, and cultural
development adding to the growth of Iraq. During
the period 1747-1831 Ottoman Empire was ruled by
Mamluk Officers of Georgiana. During this era the
population of Ottoman increased fewer than 5 million
by the 20th century and the population consisted of
Sunni and Shiites. The Shia Islam grew because of
the conversion of Sunni Islam to Shia Islam. The
Ottoman era is important because it contains the
history of Sunni Islam and Shia Islam. Both groups
are insurgents in the war against U.S.-led coalition
forces in Iraq. An understanding of the existence and
history of the Sunni and Shia Islam helps understand
the behavior and the motive behind insurgent attacks
in Iraq.
Figure 2. Iraq’s “Sunni Triangle”
(Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunni_Triangle)
3. Effect of Urban Infrastructure on Insurgency
The urban infrastructure helps predict attacks
because often insurgent attacks are focused on
government, political symbols, crowded marketplace,
and complex urban streets and buildings. In the case
of Iraqi insurgents Saddam Hussein’s palace sits in
the Sunni Triangle and its name so because majority
of the population are Sunni. So, when Iraq was
conquered the U.S.-led coalition forces took over the
palace and majority of the Sunni Triangle. Because
of the urban infrastructure that the U.S.-led coalition
forces have now taken over insurgent attacks can be
expected to undermine the U.S.-led coalition to keep
control over the area.
As the strategic environment has become less
stable, more uncertain, and more dangerous, Army
forces must be trained and ready to address persistent
and evolving urban threats. These threats range from
regional conventional military forces, paramilitary
forces, guerrillas, and insurgents to terrorists,
criminal groups, and angry crowds. These threats can
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hide in plain sight and become indistinguishable from
the noncombatant urban population that may help
shield, protect, and sustain them. Although uncertain
about events, Army forces can be clear about trends.
Increasingly, the Army will face threats that severely
differ in doctrine, organization, and equipment, are
skilled at developing and adapting techniques to
counter Army tactics, techniques, and procedures
(TTP), and can fully interact with the three other
components of the urban battlefield—terrain, society,
and infrastructure. In urban operations, commanders
must broaden their concept of the threat to include
natural disasters, hunger and starvation, and rampant
disease. Further, commanders must plan to contend
with many passive urban threats, such as
psychological illnesses and toxic industrial materials
(TIM). These threats may be found in isolation, but
most likely commanders will encounter them in
various combinations. Moreover, each new threat
will pose a different combination and likely have
new capabilities that previous opponents lacked
(Quadrennial Defense Review Report, 30 September
2001), [19].
4. GIS-based Modeling of Iraqi Insurgency
Recent insurgency in Iraq has shown that insurgents
constantly change tactic to be successful and cause
maximum damage, in carrying out their missions.
Therefore, spatial and temporal tracking of
insurgency activities assume particular significance.
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology
can be exploited for spatial and temporal tracking of
insurgent activities. We have developed an
insurgency model using information on insurgency
trends through newspaper articles, worldwide web,
and other sources. The following steps are
undertaken to create the model:
Step 1: Using insurgency trends create an insurgency
database
Step 2: Obtain GIS compatible spatial maps of Iraq
and the City of Baghdad
Step 3: Map the insurgency database onto the Iraqi
(including city of Baghdad) spatial map
Step 4: Develop a GIS-based algorithm to investigate
the insurgency trend over time and space, to allow
spatial and temporal tracking of insurgency activities
The model (Fig. 3) may help answer the
following question: does geography and terrain play
any role in the decisions insurgents make? Further,
based on the historical trend of insurgent activities
vulnerable and safe locations can be identified using
a user-specified threshold criteria (see, Figure 4).
Figure 3. GIS-based Insurgency Modeling
Framework
Figure 4. Steps in Identifying Vulnerable and Safe
Locations
5. Application of the Insurgency Model in Iraq
The above insurgency model (Fig. 3) is applied to
assist the U.S. Army in developing counter-terrorism
activities in Iraq. As an example, on a GIS
compatible spatial city map of Baghdad (Fig. 5) we
show locations of insurgency incidents between Nov.
1, 2006-April 30, 2007. At a minimum, we include
the following information in a GIS database (Fig. 6)
pertaining to the incidents:
• No_Killed
• Date
• Iraqi_Killed
Insurgency activities obtained from the Database
Attack 1
Attack 2…
Attack … n
Categorization By GIS Model
o Responsible Parties o Attack Severity o Type of attack
Vulnerable and Safe Locations
Data
Management
Database
Map files
Map Display
Modeling
Controls
Coverage
Management
Modeling
Output
Point
Management
Spatial
Referencing Data Ouput
Controls
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• US_Troop_Killed
• Type_of_Attack
• Responsible_parties
We use alphanumeric key-codes to represent certain
information. For example, Possible Type of Attacks
range from 1-10; Possible Responsible Parties range
from A-D. The key-codes and kept in a separate
document.
Using the above model we show the following:
• A bar graph of No_Killed in different type of
attacks over a sample specified time period (Fig.
7).
• A bar graph of No_Killed by different
responsible parties over the specified time period
(Fig. 8).
• The monthly variation of No_Killed over the
specified time period (Fig. 9).
• Approximate area of the most vulnerable and
safest neighborhoods. For this, we use a
threshold No_Killed value and draw a buffer
around points where No_Killed exceeded the
threshold value to represent most vulnerable
areas. A similar procedure is followed to show
safest neighborhoods (see, Figs. 10-12).
Figure 5. Spatial GIS Map of Baghdad
Figure 6. GIS Database of Insurgent Attacks
Figure 7. Bar graph showing temporal variation of
No_Killed in different types of attacks
Figure 8. Bar graph showing temporal variation of
No_Killed by different responsible parties
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Figure 9. Bar graph showing monthly variation of
No_Killed
Figure 10. Snapshot of the GIS Algorithm
Figure 11. GIS Program Output
Figure 12. Sample GIS Program Code showing
buffered Regions of Safest and Vulnerable Places
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
In this paper we studied the causes of insurgency,
developed a mathematical model to predict the
likelihood of an individual turning into an insurgent,
and developed a GIS-based model to investigate the
insurgency trend over space and time in Iraq. A fast
and efficient model that can show the insurgency
trend over space and time can assist the decision-
makers in the Armed forces to appropriately allocate
resources and contingencies as part of counter-
insurgency activities. The conceptual GIS and
mathematical models developed herein can further be
expanded and tested after developing a
comprehensive insurgency database. Data on
insurgent activities can be obtained from news media
and worldwide web and will have to be entered into
the GIS database. The reliability of the model results
will largely depend on the accuracy of the datasets.
7. Future Works
Future works will include populating the GIS
database with trends in insurgency activity obtained
from various sources, such as news media and
worldwide web. It will also include adding a 3-
dimensional modeling capability and bringing up the
GIS capability in an online environment.
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8. Acknowledgements
This project was partially funded by the Knowledge
Integration and Management Center for Excellence
(KIMCOE)-Morgan State University. The authors
are thankful to undergraduate students Marlon
Browne, Jamere James, and Victor Jennings for
undertaking some of the earlier works in connection
with the GIS compatible insurgency database
development. The authors are also thankful to Dr.
LeeRoy Bronner for leading the KIMCOE research
team dealing with insurgency modeling and
providing appropriate software tools and resources
for carrying out the research.
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