Modelling the response of fish to major infrastructure upgrades in wastewater treatment plants
Mark ServosCanada Research Chair in Water Quality Protection
University of Waterloo
Rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum)
Arlos, M.J., W.J. Parker, J. Bicudo, P. Law; K.A. Hicks, M. Fuzzen, S. Andrews, M.R. Servos. 2018a. Modeling the exposure of wild fish to endocrine active chemicals: potential linkages of total estrogenicity to field-observed intersex. Water Research 139:187-197.
Arlos, M.J., W.J. Parker, P. Law, J. Bicudo, P. Marjan, S.A. Andrews, M.R. Servos. 2018b. Multi-year prediction of estrogenicity in municipal wastewater effluents. Science of the Total Environment 610-611C:1103-1112.
Patricija Marjan, Meghan Fuzzen, Keegan Hicks,Maricor Arlos, Katie McCann, Alex Crichton, Samantha Deeming, Paulina Bahamonde, Brendan Smith, Chris Robinson, Carolyn Brown, Jennifer
Ings, Gerald Tetreault, Heather Loomer, Jenn Kormos, Ken Oakes, Xu Zhang, Chloe Wang, Paul Togunde, Hadi Dhiyebi, Leslie Bragg, and many others
Also the generous support of our partners: GRCA, Region of Waterloo, City of Guelph, OMECC, ECCC, NSERC, CWN, CRC,CREATE WATER, GWF, etc.
GuelphWaterloo
Lake Erie
Grand River Watershed in Southern Ontario
McMaster
The Grand River Watershed, southern Ontario, Canada Drains into Lake Erie – 6,985 km2
Population ~one million 70% agricultural Inputs from 30 municipal WWTPs
50,000 to 100,000 people served
Drinking Water Treatment Plant
Sewage Treatment Plants
>100,000 people served
5000 to 50,000 people served0 to 5000 people served
Wastewater Treatment Plants in the central Grand Riverare a major concern for water quality?
Waterloo (2o partial-nitrifying)(major upgrades delayed until 2017)
Kitchener (2o non/partial-nitrifying)(major upgrades in 2012 and continuing)
Rapidly growing population >1 M people
Galt Cambridge
Paris
Brantford
Grand Valley
Fergus
Elmira
Elora
Caledonia
Guelph (3o nitrifying)
Toxicant Cellular Organism Population Physiological
vtg expression (gene expression studies)
Clear biological signals across many levels of biological organization
7
Community Ecosystem
Steroid hormone production, delayed sperm development
Intersex conditions
Changes in community assemblages
Processing of nutrients in the food web
Bahamonde et al. 2014Fuzzen et al. 2016Marjan et al. 2017
Tetreault et al 2011Fuzzen et al. 2016Marjan et al. 2018
Tetreault et al 2011Tanna et al. 2011Fuzzen et al. 2015Hicks et al. 2017
Tetreault et al 2011Hicks et al. 2017b
Loomer et al.2016Hicks et al. 2017c
Reduced reproductive
success (lab study)Fuzzen et al. 2015
Male rainbow darter
Female rainbow darter
Intersex condition is the most consistent
Toxicant Cellular Organism Population Physiological Community Ecosystem
Healthy Male Exposed Male
Intersex
Fuzzen et al. 2016, PLOS One
Continuing to following responses to upgrades, 2007-2019
2018
Waterloo (delayed to 2017)
Kitchener (major upgrade in 2012 and continuing
Date
July 2009 Fall 2010 July 2011 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015
Coce
ntrat
ion (
ng/L
E2e
q)
0
5
10
15
20
25A
B
C
AB
D
BC
Date
Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015
Conc
entra
tion (
ng/L
E2e
q)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
A
A
BB B
C
Kitchener
Waterloo
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Ann
ual T
onn
age
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total ammonia Total nitrate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Ann
ual T
onna
ge
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total ammoniaTotal nitrate
Estr
ogen
icity
-YE
S Upgrades
Intersex incidence in rainbow darter in the Grand River
Hicks et al., 2017ES&T 51(3): 1811-1819
Ethinylestradiol(Synthetic estrogen)
Natural and synthetic estrogens
Estradiol Estrone Estriol
Lab
Field?Effects
Directed Assessment
Toxicant Cellular Organism Population Physiological Community Ecosystem
Highly associated with the presence of estrogens
Very difficult analysis
SOURCE TRANSPORT & FATE EFFECTS
Modeling the exposure of rainbow darters)to endocrine disrupting chemicals: linkages of stressor concentrations (estrogens) to physiological consequences?
1 2 3
Mode
lling
Part
1: So
urce
Multi-year prediction of estrogenicity in municipal wastewater effluents
Population Demographic Profile
Usage Rates Excretion Rates Sewer Conversionof E2 to E1
Influent Estimates Effluent EstimatesWWTP Removal Rate
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 (𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸)𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 = �𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 × 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Am
mon
ia (m
g/L)
0
10
20
30
40b)
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Am
mon
ia (m
g/L)
0
10
20
30
40b)
Kitchener
Waterloo
Ammonia (indication of treatment)
Post-upgrade
Mode
lling
Part
1: So
urce
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Ja
E2
Equ
ival
ence
(ng/
L)
0
5
10
15
20
25
(i)
(ii)
a)
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
E2
Equ
ival
ence
(ng/
L)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
(i)
(ii)
a)
Kitchener
Waterloo
Estimated Total Estrogenicity (E2 Equivalency)
Post-upgrade
Mode
lling
Part
1: So
urce
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 (𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸)𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 = �𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 × 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
26-Feb-10
14-Sep-10
14-Aug-10
12-Sep-11
18-Oct-12
17-Jun-132-Jul-13
20-Aug-13
6-Nov-13
1-Dec-13
21-Jan-15
18-Mar-15
16-Sep-15
19-Nov-15
E2
Equ
ival
ence
(ng/
L)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 Measured - YES assayPredicted
7-Jul-09
14-Sep-10
13-Jun-113-Jul-11
11-Nov-13
18-Mar-14
9-Dec-14
23-Jan-15
18-Mar-15
18-Sep-15
19-Nov-15
E2
Equ
ival
ence
(ng/
L)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Measured - YES Assay Predicted
Kitchener
Waterloo
Mode
lling
Part
1: So
urce
Post-upgrade
Mode
lling
Part
2: Ri
ver F
ate
1 2 3
Model Segmentation
• 50 segments• 80 km• 4 MWWTPs• 1 water withdrawal• 5 creeks and tributaries• 8 years • 9 sites with biological
data
Hydraulics Validation
• Water levels• Chloride concentration
Model Platform
• WASP 7.5 by the US EPA
Mode
lling
Part
2: Ri
ver F
ate
c) Chloride at Segment 50
Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
Con
cent
ratio
n (m
g/L)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ObservedPredicted
b) Chloride at Segment 21
Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
Con
cent
ratio
n (m
g/L)
020406080
100120140160180
Observed Predicted
a) WL at Segment 37
Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Wat
er L
evel
(m)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0PredictedObserved
Hydraulics Validation
• Water levels• Chloride concentration
Mode
lling
Part
2: Ri
ver F
ate
Waterloo
Kitchener
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Estr
ogen
Con
cent
ratio
n, n
g/L
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Flow
(m3 /
s)
0
40
80
120
160
200
E1 E2 EE2 River Flow
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Estr
ogen
Con
cent
ratio
n, n
g/L
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Flow
(m3 /
s)
0
40
80
120
160
200
E1 E2 EE2 River Flow
a) Segment 23
b) Segment 42
• Very dependent on flow and treatment change• Transformation important for some chemicals
Mode
lling
Part
2: Ri
ver F
ate Temporal Patterns
Waterloo
Kitchener
June 1, 2012Pre-upgrade
Mode
lling
Part
2: Ri
ver F
ate Spatial Patterns – Summer Low Flow
Waterloo
Kitchener Kitchener
Waterloo
June 1, 2012Pre-upgrade
June 1, 2014Post-upgrade
Mode
lling
Part
2: Ri
ver F
ate Spatial Patterns – Summer Low Flow
Waterloo
Kitchener Kitchener
Waterloo
Mode
lling
Part
3: Lin
kage
s to E
ffect
sModelling the exposure of rainbow darters to estrogens: comparison to field data?
1 2 3
0 .0 0 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 1 1 0 1 0 00
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
T o ta l E s tro g e n ic ity , n g /L E 2 E q u iva le n ce
Inte
rse
x I
nci
de
nce
, % 2 3
1 2
4 4
3 54 2
5 0
3 1
2 0
0 8
0 .0 0 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 1 1 0 1 0 00
2
4
6
T o ta l E s tro g e n ic ity , n g /L E 2 E q u iva le n ce
Inte
rse
x S
eve
rity
2 3
1 2
4 4
3 54 2
5 0
3 1
2 0
0 8
a )
b )
Mode
lling
Part
3: Lin
kage
s to E
ffect
s
IntersexWaterloo 2016
Segment
Moving Forward• Studies that follow changes in the Grand River
in response to the on-going major MWWTP upgrades (NSERC CRD).
• Refine (processes) and expand (spatially) the models
• Models can now be used to test scenarios:• additional emerging contaminants?• effectiveness of treatment,• impacts of population growth, • changes in hydrology (e.g., related to
climate change). • Extend predictions to other watersheds,
cumulative effects.
Major Assumption
28
The estrogens estrone (E1), estradiol (E2), and ethinylestradiol (EE2) are the major contributors to the total estrogenicity
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
E2
Equ
ival
ence
(ng/
L)
E2 EE2E1
Effec
ts di
rect
ed an
alys
is
1E-10
1E-09
1E-08
E2 E
quiv
alen
ts (n
g/L)
Retention Time (min)
E2EE2E1 DES
OP NPE3
BPA
Kitchener WWTP effluent in 2012
Standard Mixture