Modern Bus Features: Trends and Future ProspectsModern Bus Features: Trends and Future Prospects

Cliff HenkeSr. Analyst, BRT and Small StartsPB TR&S, Inc.

Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento, CA June 2008

Cliff HenkeSr. Analyst, BRT and Small StartsPB TR&S, Inc.

Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento, CA June 2008

Topics TodayTopics Today

Bus Technologies Overview Factors Driving New Bus Technologies Cost and Project Considerations

Bus Technologies Overview Factors Driving New Bus Technologies Cost and Project Considerations

USA Advanced Bus DesignsUSA Advanced Bus Designs

The European bus design challengeThe European bus design challenge

High-Comfort, AmenitiesHigh-Comfort, Amenities

Interior Finish Large Windows Luggage Racks Information Grab Bars

Interior Finish Large Windows Luggage Racks Information Grab Bars

• Rear Window?• Multiple Doors• Circulation• Seat Comfort• Fast Securement

North American Vehicles Now with Doors on Both SidesNorth American Vehicles Now with Doors on Both Sides

NABI 60-BRT hybrid demo

New Flyer 60DELFBRT hybrid pilot bus for Cleveland

Las Vegas: Hotbed of New Bus Development Las Vegas: Hotbed of New Bus Development

Driven by image and BRT needs Driven by image and BRT needs

Los Angeles: Another Hotbed of New Bus Development Los Angeles: Another Hotbed of New Bus Development

Driven by environmental and BRT needs Driven by environmental and BRT needs

Range of BRT Vehicles, Costs Range of BRT Vehicles, Costs

New Flyer Invero i40 LF

Irisbus Civis

StandardArtic

Stylized Artic

Specialized

Stylized Std

New Flyer Hybrid Electric DE60LF

NABI CompoBus 45 C LFW

Gillig 40 LF

NABI CNG 60 BRT

Range of BRT Vehicles, CostsRange of BRT Vehicles, Costs

Model Body Type Propulsion Cost (US$)

40-ft. low-floor

Standard Diesel or CNG mech.

$340,000-$380,000

45-ft. low-floor

Stylized Diesel or CNG mech.

$550,000-$720,000

60-ft. low-floor

Standard artic

Diesel or CNG mech.

$480,000-$520,000

60-ft. low-floor

Stylized Diesel or CNG mech.

$650,000-$700,000

60-ft. low-floor

Stylized Hybrid $950,000 +

Onboard Technologies Critical to BRT, Further Local Bus SuccessOnboard Technologies Critical to BRT, Further Local Bus Success

BRT System Success Measures

Speed & Capacity

Drive System Amenities Styling

Ridership Increase

System Capacity, Travel Time

Capital Savings, Operational Saving

Boarding/Exit Time, Accessibility

Bus Emissions, Noise

Economic Development, Land Use

Safety Perception, Cleanliness, Style

Integrated Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) PlanIntegrated Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) Plan

Washington Metro (WMATA)

Data Storage

Printer (3)

AVL Central Processing Unit

Radio Tower

Satellite

AVL Network Server

Workstation (5)

10BaseT

10BaseT

10BaseT

10BaseTSystem Uninterruptible

Power Supply

Router

10BaseTWMATA LAN/WAN

10BaseT

DGPS Reference Station

GH

Z

On Board Communications

Infrastructure should comply with

J1708/J1587, RS232, RS422, and/or RS485

(see Appendix D)Radio Repeater Site

Radio Interface Unit

Coder/Decoder

Coder/Decoder

Fiber Optic Node

DS1

Fiber Optic Node and/or T1 Link

Coder/Decoder

DGPS Receiver

PA(Bus only)

Coax

MDT

Radio Console

EmergencyNotification Switch

Engine

Radio Antenna

Central Processing Unit

J1708/J1587

Odometer

490 MHZShort-range Wireless

GHZ

490 MHZ

Vehicle Hardware

BOCC AVL Hardware

490

MH

Z (F

utur

e)

Radio Control Doors(Bus only)

Fare Collection(Bus only)

Automatic Passenger Counting

(Bus only)

Interface Unit

Optional Spectrum Frequency at Each Garage

10BaseT

Coax

RS232

Other Nodes

GarageNodes

Fiber Optic Node and/or T1 Link

J1708/J1587

J1708/J1587

OC12-OC48 OC12-OC48

Toyota IMTS – New Future Automated BRT SystemToyota IMTS – New Future Automated BRT System

IMTS – Intelligent Multimode Transit System:

Based on latest ITS tech Debut at Expo 2005 in Japan System developed by Toyota Allows unmanned, automatic or

platoon bus operation on dedicated roads

Controlled by magnetic markers imbedded in roads

Automatic speed regulation, braking functions via inter-vehicle & wayside wireless

IMTS – Intelligent Multimode Transit System:

Based on latest ITS tech Debut at Expo 2005 in Japan System developed by Toyota Allows unmanned, automatic or

platoon bus operation on dedicated roads

Controlled by magnetic markers imbedded in roads

Automatic speed regulation, braking functions via inter-vehicle & wayside wireless

Central Control Room Vehicle Location, Service Supervision Central Control Room Vehicle Location, Service Supervision

Brisbane SE Busway

Passenger InformationPassenger Information

At StationsLA: Metro Rapid Bus

On BoardParis: Val de Marne Busway

Other Info Technologies Also Have Income StreamsOther Info Technologies Also Have Income Streams

On-Board Wi-Fi (L.A., Miami, various European cities)

On-Board and Station Advertising with Next-Bus Info

“Transit TV”

On-Board Wi-Fi (L.A., Miami, various European cities)

On-Board and Station Advertising with Next-Bus Info

“Transit TV”

Hybrid will surpass CNG for BRT PropulsionHybrid will surpass CNG for BRT Propulsion

28% of total will be hybrids

One-third to be CNG (traditional drivetrain)

28% of total will be hybrids

One-third to be CNG (traditional drivetrain)

37%

33%

28%

2%

HybridCNGLNGULSD

37%

33%

28%

2%

HybridCNGLNGULSD

Recent Hybrid Transit Bus OrdersRecent Hybrid Transit Bus Orders

Customer Qty. + Options

Bus OEM Hybrid System

Yosemite NP 18 Gillig Allison EP 50

SF Muni 54 + 54 Orion BAE HybridDrive

Chicago 150 artics New Flyer Allison EP 50

Montebello et als 150 + New Flyer ISE Siemens ELFA

New York MTA 850 Orion BAE HybridDrive

Cleveland 21 New Flyer Allison EP 50

Philadelphia (SEPTA) 400 + 80 New Flyer Allison EP 50

Market Total (est.) 1,658 + ~1,000+

Southern California Projected Gasoline-Hybrid Transit Bus Orders

Southern California Projected Gasoline-Hybrid Transit Bus Orders

Year Qty.

2005 71 + 7

2006 23

2007 55

2008 64

2009 51

5-Yr. Market Total

271

—Source: SCAQMD, 2006

Hybrid LCC Payback ExerciseHybrid LCC Payback Exercise

Total LCC Cost Difference Payback: Some say 7-8 Years

Payback On Local Match: Less than Six Years

Assumptions: 42,000 miles driven, 3.5 mpg diesel

If… $150,000 incremental

cost 50,000 miles per year 33% fuel economy

improvement and $3/gal.

Then total cost payback is 14 years on fuel alone

Total LCC Cost Difference Payback: Some say 7-8 Years

Payback On Local Match: Less than Six Years

Assumptions: 42,000 miles driven, 3.5 mpg diesel

If… $150,000 incremental

cost 50,000 miles per year 33% fuel economy

improvement and $3/gal.

Then total cost payback is 14 years on fuel alone

Cost Item Total Local Share

Federal Share

Marginal Cost (per bus)

$175,000 $35,000 $140,000

Fuel Savings$2/gal., 20%

$4000/yr. $4000 N/A

Maintenance Savings

?? ?? N/A

Other Savings

?? ?? ??

Total Savings $4000 $4000 0

Payback time >43 yrs. <6 yrs. N/A

Docking/ Narrow Lane Guidancefor speed/consistencyDocking/ Narrow Lane Guidancefor speed/consistency

Precision Docking—Theory: Speed, consistency can be improved Consistent gap can speed boarding

Same high station/curb height eliminates ramp deploy dwell time

Enables rail-like ADA compliance??

In Practice: Not proven in USA Benefits, cost unclear

Precision Docking—Theory: Speed, consistency can be improved Consistent gap can speed boarding

Same high station/curb height eliminates ramp deploy dwell time

Enables rail-like ADA compliance??

In Practice: Not proven in USA Benefits, cost unclear

• Guidance - high speed in narrow lanes–Shoulder lane ROWs; Narrow bridges; Queue jump lanes

–Inclement weather operations

–Could save in capital cost of projects

Types of Precision Docking/ Narrow Lane Guidance

Types of Precision Docking/ Narrow Lane Guidance

In Operation: Mechanical

–Rail (France)–Curb (UK, Australia)

Magnetic (Holland, USA)

–FROG/PATH Optical (France, USA)

–Siemens Matra/Irisbus

In Operation: Mechanical

–Rail (France)–Curb (UK, Australia)

Magnetic (Holland, USA)

–FROG/PATH Optical (France, USA)

–Siemens Matra/Irisbus

Mechanical

Curb

Electro-Magnetic

PATH – MMRS & GSOptical

Pace of Technology’s ChangePace of Technology’s Change

The 1990s: Multiple floor heights,

lengths Several fuels (and

aftertreatments) Multiple structures Advanced electronics

(multiplexing, AVL, voice annunciators, AVM, etc.)

The 2000s: Growing use of hybrids Real-time video

surveillance Data logging and

advanced diagnostics Wi-Fi BRT features

The 1990s: Multiple floor heights,

lengths Several fuels (and

aftertreatments) Multiple structures Advanced electronics

(multiplexing, AVL, voice annunciators, AVM, etc.)

The 2000s: Growing use of hybrids Real-time video

surveillance Data logging and

advanced diagnostics Wi-Fi BRT features

I/O Controls’ multiplexing system

The Result: A “Build to Order” MarketThe Result: A “Build to Order” Market

Each order custom Pilot bus Wiring scheme

different Major components

different (even allowed by SBPGs)

Time to market now 18 months—or less

Big reason why OEMs are financially fragile

Each order custom Pilot bus Wiring scheme

different Major components

different (even allowed by SBPGs)

Time to market now 18 months—or less

Big reason why OEMs are financially fragile

“And now you want what?”

Cost of New Technology?Cost of New Technology?

Viewed another way…Viewed another way…

London Transport Bus (LTB):New Paradigm of FranchisesLondon Transport Bus (LTB):New Paradigm of Franchises

London Transport provides integrated service to customers

LTB is a logistics center that designs, tracks, and evaluates services on behalf of customers

The LTB has outsourced the task of providing modal capacity LTB does not own any buses LTB does not operate any mode! LTB does franchise to private

operators coordinated with rail, etc.

London Transport provides integrated service to customers

LTB is a logistics center that designs, tracks, and evaluates services on behalf of customers

The LTB has outsourced the task of providing modal capacity LTB does not own any buses LTB does not operate any mode! LTB does franchise to private

operators coordinated with rail, etc.

Application ofinformation technology

Modal capacity is provided by many suppliers

London Transportprovides integrated

fares, schedules, andstandards

London Transport Busapplies Countown and

Mystery Shopper management resources

Understandsthe "full trip"of thecustomer

London Transport Bus: No Longer An OperatorLondon Transport Bus: No Longer An Operator

Mobility management for customers now strategic mission of London Bus

Findings of WestStart-CALSTART 2007 Phase II: BRT-Heavy Survey

Findings of WestStart-CALSTART 2007 Phase II: BRT-Heavy Survey

Migration of Elements: BRT elements to “migrate” to regular bus systems, vice versa, including: Real time passenger information Vehicle location Onboard surveillance Longer vehicles Branding/stylized vehicles More buses/Increased frequency Transit signal priority (TSP)

Opinion: BRT is part of the tide lifting all boats

Migration of Elements: BRT elements to “migrate” to regular bus systems, vice versa, including: Real time passenger information Vehicle location Onboard surveillance Longer vehicles Branding/stylized vehicles More buses/Increased frequency Transit signal priority (TSP)

Opinion: BRT is part of the tide lifting all boats

Project Cities in Planning PhaseProject Cities in Planning Phase

1850

76100

200

0

100

200

1998 2002 2006 2010 (est.) 2020 (F)

Growth In BRT Project Cities

1850

76100

200

0

100

200

1998 2002 2006 2010 (est.) 2020 (F)

Growth In BRT Project Cities

--sources: Sen. Banking --sources: Sen. Banking Committee, FTA, METRO Committee, FTA, METRO MagazineMagazine

ConclusionsConclusions

Technology Explosion Accelerating Driven by BRT, image, environmental

concerns Cost-Effectiveness May Be A Concern, but… New Technologies Enable New Revenues,

Even New Model of Service

Technology Explosion Accelerating Driven by BRT, image, environmental

concerns Cost-Effectiveness May Be A Concern, but… New Technologies Enable New Revenues,

Even New Model of Service

Questions?Questions?

Thank youThank you