L/O/G/O

Modernization and Fertility: A Critical Essay

Richard A. Easterlin

Presented by: Sundari Budiani

Theoritical and Empirical Implications

Hub. antara Modernisasi & Fertilitas

Pengertian Modernisasi

Contents

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Pendahuluan1

Pendahuluan● What is the most challenging problem in

the social study of human fertility?It is the causes of the shift from high to low fertility during the process of modernization

● Preceding papers supply, demand, or regulation costs

● Present paper clarify the conceptual links between modernization & fertility

Economic: sustained raise in real output per capita. & changes in techniques of producing, transporting & distributing goods

1

2

3

The Nature of ModernizationModernization defined as transformation in:

Sosial & demographic: involves significant alterations in fertility, mortality & migration; in place of residence; in family size & structure; educational system; & public health services.

Human personality: increase openness to new experience, increased independence from parental authority.

Conceptual links between Modernization & Fertility Behavior

Basic Determinants

Reg. Cost (RC)

Demand of Children (Cd)Supply of Children (Cn)

Deliberate Fert Control Var.

Other ProximateDeterminants

Children Ever Born

Proximate Determinants

Basic Determinants Proximate Determinants Children Ever Born

Links from Modernization to Potential Supply, Demand & Reg. Cost

Aspects of Modernization

Factors Trough Which Fertility Control is Influenced

Demand (Cd) Supply (Cn) Reg. Cost (RC)

Tastes Income Prices Nat. Fert

Surv. Prospe

cts

Subj. costs

Market costs

Better public health & med care

+ +

Growth in formal education

- - + + - -

Urbanization - - - -

New consumer goods -

New fert. Control methods

- -

Links PS, D & RC to Fert. Control & Fertility

Modernization lower the demand for children introduces new goods and life styles (the households shift the expenditure toward new purposes inc. Having & raising children).

Modernization fertility control, e.g: modern condom and improved methods of induced abortion, pill and IUD.

Modernization process shifts typical household from a situation where childbearing is a matter ‘taken for granted’ to one that poses difficult problems of individual choice regarding the limitation of family size.

Modernization shifts motivation of individual couples and regulation costs push them to practice deliberate family size limitation.

Empirical Findings

Time

Surviving Children per Married Woman

Beginning of fertility decline in A

Beginning of fertility decline in B

Hypothetical Trends in Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) in Two Countries and the Timing of Fertility Decline

CnA = Cn

B

CdA

CdB

The Trend in Fertility Differentials by Socioeconomic Status (SES)

High

Surviving Children per Married Woman

Low

Surviving Children per Married Woman

Education

Cd

Cn

(c) Premodern (d) Early Modern

(a) Premodern (b) Early Modern

Hypothetical Relationship Between Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) and Education and Age in Premodern and Early Modern Settings

LowEducation

High

15-19 40-44Age

15-19Age

40-44

Cd

Cd

Cd

Cn

Cn

Cn

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Thank You!