Module 4_Climate Change 1

7/29/2019 Module 4_Climate Change 1

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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASA

Topic 1: Overview on Climate Change

& Climate Trends in Philippines

Presented by:Thelma A. Cinco

Presented at Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for local Partners (DRR/CCA ToT), January 9, 2013

Assistant Weather Services Chief, CAD, PAGASA/DOST


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Topic 1 - Climate Change: Causes and

Effects

Weather and climate distinguished

Climate Change, Global Warming, and Global

Change Defined

Causes of Climate Change

The greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases and Sources

Natural and man made causes

Climate trends in the Philippines


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Weather is what you getWeather is the present condition of the atmosphere

or it is a day-to-day conditions of the atmosphere at

a particular place and time

Climate is what you expectClimate is the average of weather for a particular area

a over a period of time ranging from months to

decade, thousands or millions of years.

Weather vs. Climate


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Climate

Climate is what youexpect

Weather is what you

get Characterized by

variability andextremes

A resource

A hazard

Image from the EUMETSAT / IODC programme, Meteosat-5 19/03/2006Colour composite image provided by Meteo-France


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Climate change

Refers to any distinctchange in measures of

climate lasting for a long period of time.

Means major changes in temperature, rainfall,

snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or

longer

Both human-made and natural factors

contribute to climate change


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Global warming

An average increase in temperatures near the

Earths surface and in the lowest layer of the

atmosphere

Increases in temperatures in our Earths

atmosphere can contribute to changes in

global climate patterns

Considered part of climate change along withchanges in precipitation, sea level, etc.


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Climate variability refers to shorter term

fluctuations in climate such as those caused by

the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Phenomenon.

What is Climate variability?



We see the sum ofboth

Climate variability(e.g. Natural swings)

Climate change

(e.g. warming trend)

Time (years)

"climate"

Climate Change v. Climate Variability



Atmosphere + Hydrosphere + Cryosphere + Lithosphere + Biosphere

+ Forcings

Major Elements of the climatic System


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Causes of climate change

GHGs

Aerosols

Landuse

Human factorsNatural factors

Solar

Natural

variability

Volcano

What causes climate change?



A diagram of the natural greenhouse effect on earth,where the Earth's temperature is kept constant to

support life.

A diagram showing how additional greenhouse gases

trap more heat in the Earths atmosphere and raises

the temperature.

What is Green house Effect?



Example of the Greenhouse Effect

The Suns energy

passes through the

cars windshield.This energy (heat) is

trapped inside the carand cannot pass back

through the

windshield, causing

the inside of the car towarm up.



Natural sources

Soils (biological processes)

Ocean

Human-induced

Burning of fossil fuels

Transport

industries

Land-use changes

Carbon dioxide

What are the human activities that cause

increases in the concentrations of the

greenhouse gases?

Natural sources

Tropical soils (wet forests)

Ocean

Human-induced

Nitrogen-based

fertilizers and chemicals

Industrial sources

Nitrous oxides

Nitrous oxides



Human-induced

Coolants

Sealants

insulations

HydrofluorocarbonsNatural sources

none

Hydrofluorocarbon

Natural sources

Wetlands

Termites

Ocean

Human-induced

Flooded rice agriculture

Livestock production

Waste managementsystem (landfills, etc.)

Methane

Methane



Carbon dioxide: +31% Methane: +151%

Nitrous oxide: +17%

Thickening blanket

Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the

atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect



Current GHG Concentration

(IPCC 2007)

Since 2004 were already

trekking above the IPCC worst-

case emission scenario

(UNEP 2009)

Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the

atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect



CLIMATE CHANGE = CHANGE IN CLIMATE

Climate change is the long term shift or alteration in the climate of a

specific location or region. Climate change is attributed to the dramatic increase in green

house gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere, trapping heat andcreating the greenhouse effect or global warming

CLIMATE CHANGE

Change in climate patterns

such as rainfall, wind patterns

Increase in Green House Gases (GHG)

ENHANCE GREEN HOUSE EFFECT

Increase in Global Temperature

GLOBAL WARMING



What are the future risk

under a changing

Climate?



Risks of future climate change

Possible threats: Ecosystem

change

Flooding of

coastalcommunities

Spread ofdiseases

Increase of

extremeweather events

Source: IPCC 2001a



Whats the proof that

global warming istaking place?

Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg



Observed Global mean temperature

50 0.1280.026

100 0.0740.018

Period Rate

Years /decade

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000



How vulnerable is thePhilippines?

Th t f h d i th Ph



In the recent World Risk Index report released in August 2011

the Philippines ranks 3rd in the list of countries most

vulnerable to climate change.

According to any criteria, the Philippines is an extremely

dangerous place to inhabit. One of the most comprehensiverecords on the occurrence of recent natural hazards even

advised that the archipelago has experienced more disasters

than any other country in the world since 1900.

- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Louvain, Universit

Catholique de Brussels (hereafter CRED) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International

Disaster Database.

The nature of hazards in the Ph

Hi hl S t bl t


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Highly Suceptable to

Floodings and Inundation

Archipelago, composedof low lying small

islands

70% of cities andmunicipalities are

coastal areas

Highly susceptible toflooding and stormsurges

Wh i th Phili i t fl di ?


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Why is the Philippines prone to flooding?

Meteoro logical factors: The climate of the PH is

influenced by the complexinteractions of various

factors such as :

Philippine Geography

and Topography

Linear systems Principal Air Streams

Semi-permanentcyclones and anti-cyclones

Tropical Cyclones

Ocean currents

Heavier precipitation Total Damage = PhP11 1 B ~ (USD234 M)


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

DOSTPAGASA -

Heavier precipitation Total Damage = PhP11.1 B ~ (USD234 M)

Espinueva & Nilo, 2009


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DeadAffected

populationTotal

Damage

734 2.0M P5.5B

Typhoon Reming (DURIAN)

29 November 2006 in Albay

DeadAffected

population

Total

Damage

184 4.0M P6.4B

Typhoon Milenyo (XANGSANE)

28 September 2006 in MM


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D i St & T h I t i f ll t


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PANAON ISLAND

FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2003

ORMOC FLASHFLOOD

November 1991

INFANTA & AURORA

FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2004

Damaging Storms & Typhoons, Intense rainfall events

Habagat A g st 2012


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Normal RR for

August 504.2 mm

Percent

Normal

Total August 1-8 1199.1 mm 237.8 %

6 August 323.4 mm 64.1 %

7 August 391.7 mm 77.6 %

8 August 292.6 mm 58.03%

Total 2day RR

(Aug 6-7) 741.8 mm 141.8%

Total 3day RR

(Aug 6-8) 1007.4 mm 199.8%

Duration of continuous rainfall from July 16 to date = 24 days`

Habagat August 2012


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How is global warming

manifested in thePhilippines?


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Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010)

Departures from 1971-2000 normal values

An increase of0.65C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

Philippines mean temperature

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Difference(C)from1

971-2000)

Year

Annual mean temp

Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

Period Rate

1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) - 0.01641951-2010 (60 years) - 0.0108

Years C/year

Maximum & Minimum Temperature


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Rate of increase almost 3times higher compared with

the maximum temperature

Maximum & Minimum Temperature

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 2008)

Trend in the frequencyof days with maximumtemperature above the1961-1990 mean 99thpercentile

(Hot days).

Trend in thefrequency withminimum temperatureabove the 1961-1990mean 99th percentile

(Warm nights)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

e ds t e e a y e pe atu es t e pp esPeriod: (1951 2008)

Trend in the frequencywith maximumtemperature below the1961-1990 mean 1stpercentile

Cool Days

Trend in the frequencywith minimumtemperature below the1961-1990 mean 1stpercentile

Cold nights


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Classification of Tropical Cyclones


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Classification of Tropical Cyclones

1. Tropical depression - maximum sustainedwinds is from 45 to63 kph;

2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained windsis from64 to 118kph;

3. Typhoon maximum sustained winds is

greater than 118kph.


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the WesternNorth Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TCand 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Areaof Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).

s.Tropical Cyclone Frequency

using 1x1 (1948-2010)

s.Visited by an average19 to 20 Tropical cyclonesEVERY YEAR

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the WesternNorth PacificPeriod: (1948-2010)


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the PhilippinesPeriod: 1948-2010

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

NumberofTropicalCyclones

Year

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Five-year running mean

Linear (Five-year runningmean)

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines


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p y ppwith maximum sustained winds of150 kph and above

9, 1987

(10), 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

FrequencyofTC

Year

Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2010

Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs

Neutral year

El Nio year

La Nia year

Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

y q y g gthe Philippines Period: 1948-2010

17 13 9 1134

48

126 130111

71

4436

10 69 18

30

46

80 67

77

88

87

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

NumberofTr

opicalCyclones

Number of Landfalling TC's

Number of non-Landfalling TC's

Monthly

Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4

Tropical cyclone statistics in PH


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Tropical cyclone statistics in PHDISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010

TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage

in Billion PhP

TY_PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 27.296722

TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000

TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 23, 2008 13.500000

TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 21, 2010 11.500000

TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 27, 2009 10.952198

TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000

DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONENumber of Casualties > 300

TC NAME Date of OccurrenceCasualti

es

TS Uring * Nov 1-6, 1991 5101TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15-17, 2011 1268

TY Nitang Aug 31 Sep 4, 1984 1029

TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995

TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991

TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936

MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum Wind

(kph)

Date of

Occurrence

TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006

TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998

TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981

TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970

TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974

TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum 24-hour

rainfall (mm)

Date of

Occurrence

TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001

TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998

TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967

TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974

TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991

TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980

*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong werecharacterized by flashfloods.

Increasing cost of Damage


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V l bilit t E t W th E t


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDE

The whole island of Leyte experienced more than 300% of normal rainfall in February 17, 2006

Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events


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Observed24-hour rainfall 455mm

TS Sendong Dec. 15 to 17, 2011


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g ,

These extreme weather events have one thing in commonpersistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killingpeople and destroying properties along its path.

Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in thePhilippines Period: (1951 2008)


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El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO)

Natural Climate Variability

Warm waterbuilds up in the

Warm water heats the

t h th i


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Strong er Easterly Wind

builds up in the

Western Pacific

Warm

poolEast

Eq

L

atmosphere, the air

rises, and low-level

trade winds converge

toward the warm

water. Subsiding air

occurs in the eastern

Pacific basin

.

Weaker than normal

Easterly Wind East Eq

Reduced

Rainfall EnhancedRainfall

Stronger than

normal Easterly

Wind

Enhanced

rainfall

West East Eq

Convection shifts eastward over the central

and/or eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection

becomes suppressed over the far western

Pacific/ Indonesia/ Philippines

Convection becomes stronger over the far western Pacific

Ocean/ Indonesia and more suppressed in the central Pacific.

ReducedRainfall

Low

Pressure

Low

Pressure High

Pressure

High

Pressure

El Nio La Nia

IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASARED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINAyears and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years

Legend:

Severe drought

impactsDrought impactswith major losses

Moderate droughtimpacts

Near normal toabove normalcondition

Way abovenormal condition

Potential forflood damage

Severe flooddamage

Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution


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Neutral La NiaEl Nio

Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type


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J AN FEB M AR APR M AY J UN J UL AUG SEP OCT NOV D EC

NORMAL 7100 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 168.5 142.6 103.6

Neutral 84.8 64.5 60.2 35.6 70.0 135.8 136.1 94.5 112.7 152.7 148.2 120.7

EL NINO 43.0 24.2 13.9 17.8 50.2 103.1 122.3 122.2 104.1 136.8 109.1 83.4

LA NNA 114.9 80.8 66.4 91.9 125.6 164.6 134.0 137.2 177.9 206.6 214.4 136.2

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

RainfallAmount(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Dumaguete (Type III)

J AN F EB M AR AP R M AY J UN J UL AUG S EP O CT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581.0 461.8 124.6 23.7

Neutral 16.1 14.6 40.3 99.9 354.4 459.6 777.1 907.4 639.6 258.1 162.6 20.1

El nio 10.2 6.6 16.1 46.4 265.2 489.41025.7847.0 567.7 364.3 64.0 24.0

La Nia 13.6 26.6 45.4 126.8 373.8 460.9 476.4 819.1 537.2 603.2 157.8 37.8

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

RainfallAm

ount(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Baguio City(Type I)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 321.9 209.8 185.0 163.0 169.9 259.8 279.0 236.1 261.6 353.8 486.3 563.1

Neutral 285.2 187.2 191.7 142.4 184.2 248.4 251.2 252.4 283.5 375.9 426.4 422.0

El nio 245.4 119.3 122.2 105.4 126.9 223.2 284.8 252.3 252.5 226.2 420.1 419.4

La Nia 407.2 290.7 267.7 235.8 212.1 225.0 229.2 253.5 233.2 351.7 578.8 714.8

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

RainfallAmount(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Legazpi City Type II

J AN F EB MAR APR M AY J UN J UL AUG S EP O CT NO V DE C

NORMAL 7100 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181.0 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5

Neutral 135.3 123.5 99.6 134.1 184.1 182.4 171.3 164.0 161.0 169.1 153.7 124.1

El nio 87.0 67.2 45.4 80.7 203.2 220.9 155.2 155.3 171.7 182.0 133.2 79.3

La Nia 153.1 109.1 120.7 166.3 186.7 177.9 182.6 197.6 201.5 165.5 135.0 132.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

RainfallAmount(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Davao City (Type IV)


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

JAN FEB MA R A PR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JA N FEB MAR A PR MA Y J UN JUL A UG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Normal 1971-2000 93.7 59.2 52.1 45.8 84.1 207. 212. 192. 200. 189. 131. 99.9 93.7 59.2 52.1 45.8 84.1 207. 212. 192. 200. 189. 131. 99.9

Nuetral 92.6 68.3 58.4 40.7 106. 196. 215. 199. 190. 189. 142. 103. 92.6 68.3 58.4 40.7 106. 196. 215. 199. 190. 189. 142. 103.

El ni0 91.0 41.8 222. 177. 205. 176. 129. 77.5 61.1 27.2 30.8 10.4 7.61 37.3 166. 248. 173. 61.1 124. 122. 76.2

La nia 39.6 127. 236. 198. 215. 281. 196. 188. 136. 156. 107. 66.9 52.4 119. 220. 219. 199. 248. 228. 144. 140.

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

RainfallAm

ount(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall(mm) for Cagayan de Oro

Second yearFirst year


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Responses to

Climate Change

57

I fl f Cli t Ch


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Influence of Climate Change on

Hazard Occurrences

Temperatures are rising

Precipitation patterns are changing

- Shift in where and how precipitation falls

- Changes in flood frequency and severity- Changes in drought frequency and duration

Increasing numbers of severe weather-related

disasters in recent years

Responses to Climate Change


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

59

MitigationMeasures to reduce the

sources or enhance the sinks

of greenhouse gases.

Adaptation:measures to minimizevulnerability, risk and impacts to

climate change.

Practical steps to protectcountries and communities fromthe likely disruption and damagethat will result from effects of

climate change.

Responses to Climate Change


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Climate ChangeMitigation

Mitigation Actions


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Improve technology

Change behavior and lifestyleUse instruments

Regulations and standards

Mitigation Actions


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MITIGATION

What should we do?


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Waste disposal segregation may help instead

Costless, only discipline is needed

Plant trees.

What should we do?


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Climate ChangeAdaptation

CC adaptation requires an understanding


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

CC adaptation requires an understanding

of vulnerabilities and impacts

65


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STRATEGIES/MEASURES

DEVELOP EFFECTIVE EARLY WARNING

& DISASTER RESPONSE SYSTEMS TO

FOREWARN COMMUNITIES OF DANGERS

ADAPTATION MEASURES


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ENHANCE LGU CAPABILITIES FOR

DISASTER PREVENTION & MANAGEMENT

Integrat ing Flood Disaster Risk Reduc t ion and

Adaptat ion in Lo cal Developm ent Planning

and Decis ion-making Processes

STRATEGIES/MEASURES

ADAPTATION MEASURES

Hydromet Hazard and its impacts


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Hydromet Hazard and its impacts

Tropical CyclonesDamage and losses are due to:

- severe winds

- heavy /prolonged rainfall flooding/landslide/mudflow

- storm surge

- Tornado

T i l C l H d d i i


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Hazards and its impacts

Strong Winds

Storm Surge

Flooding due to heavy rainfall

Landslide/Mudflow


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Climate Products for Risk Management and

Adaptation Planning

Season to yearNext hour

to 10 daysDecade

Long term

climate change

Short to medium

term weather

forecasts

Seasonal to

inter-annual

climate

forecasts

Decadal

climate trend

analysis

Short-term

planning

Emergency

Preparedness

Long-term

strategic planningNew

tecnologies such

drought/flood

resistant crops

Climate

change

scenarios

Decision-making Timelines

Medium term to

Long-termstrategic planning

Infrastructures

planning,

retrofitting

Medium-term

operationalplanning

Risk

assessment and

management

Climate

normals/trends

Daily weather

forecast

Weekly forecast Climate Change

projections


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Current initiatives on DRR&CCA

Enhancement of early warning systems:additional monitoring stations, remote sensing data application

in DRR

Hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping:

update of hazard maps (Hydromet Flood, StormSurge,Severe Winds)

Improved awareness of natural hazards and their

impacts at the local level

Provision of Climate Change Projection in thePhilippines for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)

PAGASAs Response Activities

h f d f ll d / bl h f


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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA

Enhancement of

Observing systems and

monitoring facilities for

early warning system

Upgrading of surveillance radars/ Establishment of

Doppler Radar

Upgrading of Satellite Facilities (NOAA, MTSAT)

Acquisition of MODIS Satelite

Upgrading of Upper Air Stations

Buoys, wind profilers, AWS


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Science can provide

knowledge

We all have to provide

the solutions.

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Module 4_Climate Change 1

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