1

Mohan P Sharma , AFU, Rampur

Ajay K Jha, USU, Colorado, USA,

Nir Y. Krakauer, The City College of the City University of New York, USA

Tarendra Lakhankar,The City College of the City University of New York , USA

Jeeban Panthi, Small Earth Nepal

Chandra Kant Dhakal, IAAS, Lamjung Campus, Nepal

1. INTRODUCTION

• Livestock is an integral part of the mixed system and socio-economical life in the country, and contributes nearly 26% to the total Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (MOAD, 2012).

• Livestock serve many purposes for small farmers in Nepal, supplying meat, milk, eggs, leather, wool, draft power, and manure, among other benefits.

• Livestock systems vary along the elevation gradient, from buffalo dominated in the low elevations of the Terai to chauri and yaks in the high Mountain region.

• The government has prioritized the livestock sector. The APP has a set target to increase the livestock growth from 2.64% to 6.25% by 2014/15 (APP, 1995).

• However, the present production of livestock in Nepal is a decreasing one.

3

INTRODUCTION contd..

• Nepal, with a population of 26.6 million (CBS, 2011) ranks 157 out of 182 countries (UNDP, 2012), the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change (Maplecroft, 2011).

• The Nepal’s average temperature has increased by 1.8ºC from 1975 to 2006 (Malla, 2008).

• Climate change effects mostly felt by developing countries because of lack of resources, knowledge, veterinarian extension services and research technology development (FAO, 2008).

• Studies on livestock and climate change reveal that climate change adversely affects the animal health and livestock production.

• The limited herbaceous production, heat stress from higher temperature, and limited water intake due to the decrease in rainfall could cause reduced milk yields in animals and an increased incidence of some diseases.

4

• Climate hazards are leading contributors to livestock losses,

directly (e.g. animals lost in floods) or indirectly (e.g. loss of

feed and fodder crops due to floods or drought resulting in

slow growth and vulnerability to disease) (Sharma, 2009).

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)

suggests that within the agricultural sector livestock are among

the most climate sensitive economic areas.

• Gandaki River Basin, where the research was conducted, is

particularly vulnerable because it lies in the Himalayas’ rain

shadow and relies on river flows from mountain snow and ice

cover for water supplies (Manandhar et al., 2012).

• With this back drop this paper focused to analyze the

perception to climate change, its effects on livestock

production as well as tries to make the necessary policy

recommendations.

INTRODUCTION Contd..

6

2. METHODOLOGY

Study sites and sampling

• This research was based in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal.

• The Gandaki River Basin (GRB), Nepal spreads from

27.21'45'' to 28036'36'' degree north longitude to 83008'00''-

84053'00'' degree east latitude and elevation ranging from

about 144 Masl to 8167 Masl (DDC, 2002).

• The average temperature of this area ranges from -9 oC in

Mustang to 42.5oC in Chitwan. Average annual rainfall is

26.58 mms in Mustang to 2500 mm in Chitwan.

• Three districts namely; Dhading, Kapilbastu and Syangja,

were selected purposively as livelihood of the most of the

people hinge on the agriculture and livestock sector

7

Climatic Vs Livelihood in GRB

Figure 1. Districts under study in GRB

District Sample size

Dhading 193

Syangja 178

Kapilbastu 180

Total 551

A total of 551 randomly sampled household were considered

for the survey from these districts. Sampling distribution is

shown in the Table 1.

Table 1. Sampling distribution by districts

The primary data was collected through household survey

using pretested structured questionnaire via face to face

interview on January 2014.

Household survey using random sampling

RESULTS

Climate Change in GRB: Past

• Higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation were

observed on the dominant area in recent decades (1980s, 1990s

and 2000s) compared to the long term average (1971-2009).

Fig: Precipitation anomaly (%) of each decade compare to long term average of 1971-2009

Fig: Temperature anomaly (oc) of each decade compare to long term average of 1971-2009

Climate Change in GRB: Extreme Events

• Increasing trend in percentage of warm days and nights

whereas the cool nights and cool days are found to be

decreasing

• Very wet days and extremely wet days are increasing

• Showed positive trend of consecutive dry days (CDD)

Fig: Trend of very wet days Fig: Trend of consecutive dry days (CDD)

Climate Change in GRB: Drought

• Increasing trend in both drought severity and frequency

drought risk in recent decades has become more serious both

in severity and spatial extent

Fig: Trend of drought index (Decreasing trend indicate increasing drought)

Fig: Time series of drought occurrence

Climate Change in GRB: Future

• Climate model shows that the mean temperature will increase

by 1.9 0C to 3.1 oC in 2030-2060 and precipitation will change

by -8% to 12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period

(1970-2000).

• In summary: Average temperature increases at least 2°C and

dry region is becoming dryer and wet is becoming wetter.

Fig: projected changes in mean temperature (oc) in 2030-2060compared to 1970-2000 using PRECIS-A1B scenario

Fig: projected changes in annual precipitation (%) in 2030-2060compared to 1970-2000 using PRECIS-A1B scenario

Knowledge on climate change

Figure 2- Percentage Livestock keepers experiencing climate change

Figure 3- Clarity on Knowledge about climate change among those who experienced climate change is happening

3343 44 39

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dhading Syangja Kapilbastu Total

Percen

tag

e

Districts

Dhading

Syangja

Kapilbastu

Total

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dhading Syangja Kapilbastu Total

8167

10083

Percen

tag

e

These figures showed that less than half (39%) livestock holders found to be heard about climate change.

Livestock keepers from Kapilbastu were experiencing change in climatic parameters relatively more than Dhading and Syangja.

More specially, 83% of them could define the climate change more correctly.

Some of them experienced sensitivity of changing precipitation and temperature to livestock production.

Source of

Communication Dhading Syangja Kapilbastu Total

Radio/TV 55 (87.30) 64 (83.12) 50 (67.57) 169 (78.97)

Teacher 5 (7.94) 7 (9.09) 14 (18.92) 26 (12.15)

Newspaper 3 (4.76) 4 (5.19) 2 (2.70) 9 (4.21)

Staff of NGO 0 (0.00) 2 (2.60) 4 (5.41) 6 (2.80)

Government

office/

Agencies

0 (0.00) 0 (0.00) 3 (4.05) 3 (1.40)

Table 2. Source of information used by livestock keepers in the GRB

Figure in the parenthesis indicates percentage

Radio and television were observed as the

most effective sources (79%) of information to

have climatic knowledge while government

agencies played least role in knowledge

dissemination on climatic issues.

Problem Kapilbastu Syangja Dhading Total

Managing feed and

pasture

63 (35.00) 89 (50.00) 118 (61.14) 270 (49.00)

Outbreak of animal

disease 90 (49.78) 60 (33.98) 59 (30.56) 209 (37.93)

Incidence of external

parasite 79 (44.12) 68 (38.32) 50 (25.95) 198 (35.93)

Water scarcity 39 (21.67) 62 (34.83) 66 (30.49) 186 (30.49)

Table 3 . Climate change impact on livestock production due to change in

precipitation and temperature

Figure in the parenthesis indicates percentage

We found that problem of managing animal feed and

pasture (49%), outbreak of internal, animal disorder and

external parasites (38%), were the major impacts on

livestock of change in precipitation while heat stress and

low productivity of livestock were noticeable impacts of

change in temperature.

Managing feed and pasture was the major in both

Dhading (61.14%) and Syagja (50.00), while outbreak of

animal disease and disorder (49.78%) followed by

incidence of animal external parasite (44.12%) was

found as the major problem in Kapilbastu.While

managing feed was the major problem induced due to

climate change in Dahding and Syagja.

24

13 13

17

5

24

19 17

10

3

19

31 29

12 13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Reduction in

milk

Infertility Reduction in

feed intake

Decline in

meat

production

Decline in egg

production

Perc

en

tage

Dhading

Syagja

Kapilbastu

Fig. Effect of climate change on livestock performance

• Changing climatic situation might directly or indirectly affect the animal performance.

• Reduction in milk production and shortened lactation period (23%) was found as the major climatic induced problem in the GRB followed by infertility.

• Furthermore, infertility (31%) and reduction in feed intake (29%) were observed as the major effects of climate change in Kapilbastu due to heat stress and increased temperature.

• Similarly, two third farmers observed negative effects of changing climatic pattern in human derived from livestock human interaction.

4 CONCLUSION • Results confirmed that perception of climate change by the

farmers in the study sites was in line with findings of other

researchers around the world. Farmers were able to

recognize that temperature had increased and precipitation

had been dwindled.

• Climate change is one of the challenges to environment-

human security and poses threat to the livelihood of people

who rely more in the agriculture and livestock sector since

these sectors are more susceptible to the climate induced

disasters and calamities.

• The public extension service needs to train and employ

qualified local smallholder farmers to fill the extension gap

5 Recommendations

• Awareness campaign on climate change is

recommended among livestock holders for

climate information there by allowing them to

increase their resilience and adaptive capacity.

• Moreover, the research results in this study

would serve the livestock research and

development related authorities for formulate the

action plan for adaptation of climate change in

livestock sector in the rural areas

6 Acknowledgments