Monday 6 Pm Briefing

7/31/2019 Monday 6 Pm Briefing

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National Weather Service

Philadelphia/Mt. Holly

Very Dangerous Coastal Storm Sandy

October 28th 31st 2012

Prepared 600 PM EDT Monday October 29, 2012

Gary Szatkowski

NOAAs National Weather Service

Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast Office

Weather.gov/phi


2/14



Purpose of Briefing

Briefing #11 for event

Promote situationalawareness for emergencymanagement community &partners

Provide guidance forplanning efforts

Briefing applies to MountHolly service area shadedin green on map


3/14



Changes from previous briefing

Sandy continues to strongly impact the

region.


4/14



Dangerous Coastal Storm Sandy continues to have a severe impact on our region

and will continue to do so over the next several days:

Strong damaging sustained winds 40 to 55 mph over a prolonged period of

time (24 to 48 hours), with gusts over 75 mph. Strongest winds are expected

south and east of the I-95 corridor.

Extremely heavy rainfall.

Major to record inland flooding along streams and rivers.

Major to record coastal flooding. The full moon on October 29 just makesthings worse.

Sandy has directly impacted our region. The center of the storm is in the process

of coming ashore.

Next briefing package will be issued by Noon EDT on Tuesday, October 30th.

Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

Executive Summary


5/14



Current status of Sandy

Sandy was a Category Ihurricane at 500 PM EDTMonday October 29th. It hascompleted much of itstransition into an extremely

intense noreaster. Its forecast track poses a

direct threat to our region.

It is forecast to still havewind gusts exceeding 75mph as it approaches our

region. This is a very dangerous

scenario.


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Terminology

Hurricane Sandy has essentially completed the transition

process toward becoming a very intense noreaster. Since it is not expected to be a Hurricane when it comes

ashore in our region, that is why no tropical warnings havebeen issued for our region.

We expect to continue with our noreaster suite of

watch/warning products (e.g., High Wind, Coastal Flood,Flash Flood, etc.) throughout the event.

We have done this consciously so you would not beswitching from a tropical to non-tropical set of warningproducts in the middle of the event. This event will bedifficult enough without that unnecessary complication.


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Inland flooding threat

Map on the left is forecasttotal rainfall over next 3days. Heavy rainfall hasbegun and will continuethrough the event.

Flash flooding is

extremely likely. Major river flooding is

likely.

Record river flooding ispossible in the areas of

heaviest rain.


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Inland flooding tools

Our inland river flooding forecasttools now contain valuableinformation for this event, asthey have forecast informationgoing out 72 hours.

Remember, these are based onforecast rainfall, and will beupdated as the rainfall forecast isupdated, and as actual rainfall isobserved.

Tropical systems have brought

some of the worst floodingevents to our region. Pleaseplan for the worst and hope forthe best.


9/14



Coastal flooding tools Major/record flooding has already

occurred. This evenings high tidewill bring more record coastalflooding, worse than anything wehave seen so far.

A 12 to 15 foot storm tide (surge +astronomical tide) is expected in theRaritan Bay. This would producerecord coastal flooding.

A 10 to 12 foot storm tide is expectedalong the Atlantic Coast north ofAtlantic City, which will result in morerecord coastal flooding.

A 8 to 10 foot storm tide is expectedalong the Atlantic Coast south ofAtlantic City and in the Delaware Bay

which will result in moderate to majorcoastal flooding.

A 3 to 5 foot storm tide is expected inthe Chesapeake Bay. This will producemoderate coastal flooding.


10/14



Things to focus on regarding coastal flooding for the

Atlantic Coast north of Atlantic City & the Raritan Bay

We are now in our fourth high tide cycle with Hurricane Sandy. Wehave already experienced major damage with record coastalflooding occurring.

This high tide cycle will be the worst one of the event along theAtlantic Coast north of Atlantic City NJ, as well as into the RaritanBay. This flooding will be at record levels.

Dangerous wave action will combine with the coastal flooding. 12to 20 foot breakers will occur in the surf zone for the remainder oftonight.

The barrier islands north of Atlantic City will likely be cut off fromthe mainland. Breaches in the barrier islands are possible.

Water is the most life threatening aspect of this storm. HurricaneSandy is already the deadliest hurricane of the 2012 season.Please respect its power and heed the advice of local and stateofficials regarding any evacuations.


11/14



Winds

Strong winds haveoverspread the region.Strong damaging windswill continue through

today and tonight intoTuesday morning.

Winds gusts over 80mph are likely overcoastal sections. Inland

locations will see peakwind gusts of 65 to 75mph at the height ofthe storm.


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Forecast tool information

Information on coastal flooding forecast tools can befound at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=ne

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/dbofs/dbofs.html

Information on inland flooding forecast tools can befound at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phi

Our complete set of forecast information can befound at:

http://Weather.gov/phi
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=nehttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtmlhttp://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/dbofs/dbofs.htmlhttp://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phihttp://weather.gov/phihttp://weather.gov/phihttp://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phihttp://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phihttp://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/dbofs/dbofs.htmlhttp://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/dbofs/dbofs.htmlhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtmlhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtmlhttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=nehttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=ne


13/14



Housekeeping Thank you for the very positive feedback on these briefing packages.

However, we are simply unable to accommodate the magnitude ofrequests to be added to an email distribution list. Our list is frozen duringthis event as it is essentially maxed out.

We are transitioning to using social media for this event and future eventswhere we issue briefing packages.

We are on Facebook at US National Weather Service Philadelphia/MountHolly

We are on Twitter at @NWS_MountHolly

We will post notification of briefing package issuance on both Facebook &Twitter.

Please like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter to receive thenotification when we issue a briefing package.

You can always download the latest briefing package at:http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf


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Questions?

For the latest information, visit our website at

weather.gov/phi

If you have any questions, please contact us.

[email protected]

Office 609-261-6602 x222
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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