Monday, February 26 th 2018 D A I LY R E P O R T Daily Report is also available in BNI Sekuritas website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id RESEARCH Equity MARKET PREDICTION TODAY The JCI Is Estimated To Move Up On the global market, previously on last Friday, the US bourse was in uptrend as Dow index rose by 1.39% to level 25,309 while Nasdaq increased by +1.77% then followed by S&P500 which was closed up by +1.60%. Meanwhile in European bourses, the indices were mixed which DAX Frankfurt surged by +0.18% then followed by CAC Paris which rose by +0.15% while FTSE London decreased by - 0.11%. Moreover, in domestic bourse, the JCI on Friday last week was in uptrend although it was a slightly increase near the end of trading session. Later on, the JCI was closed up by +26 points (+0.41%) to level 6,619 which “foreign net sell” was reaching Rp193 billion. The biggest increases were in miscellaneous industry that was rose by +2.16% then followed by mining sector which increased by +0.63%. Meanwhile, the biggest decreases were in basic industry that was declined by -0.54% then followed by property sector which decreased by -0.15%. At the closing time of JCI on Friday, Rupiah (IDR) currency slightly strengthened against US dollar (USD) to the level of IDR 13,661 per USD. We see that on the opening JCI this week, most of investors would be interested on mining sector due to financial report release in last week. Moreover, the potential of strengthening coal price is expected to give a positive sentiment to the mining sector. Thus, the JCI today is predicted to move up in the range of 6,598-6,649. Our top stocks pick for today trading sessions are ITMG, ADRO, PTBA, and DOID. Analyst: Dessy Lapagu ([email protected]) COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE PT Adhi Karya (ADHI)’s Plan to Establish a New Subsidiary. BUY. Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra. PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk (MLBI)’s Profit Rose by 34.86% yoy in 2017. NOT RATED. Analyst: Ankga Adiwirasta. PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES)’s Performance in January 2018. HOLD. Aanlyst: Dessy Lapagu. PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) on its Biosimilar Products. BUY. Analyst: Dessy Lapagu. This year PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) will rejuvenate 700 units of taxis. NOT RATED. Analyst: Thennesia Debora. Global Indices Closing Change %Chg %Yt d P/E Americas INDU Index 25,309.99 347.51 1.39 2.39 20.38 SPX Index 2,747.30 43.34 1.60 2.76 22.16 CCMP Index 7,337.39 127.306 1.77 6.29 34.52 IBOV Index 87,293.24 606.79 0.70 14.26 21.05 EMEA UKX Index 7,244.41 -7.98 -0.11 (5.77) 14.00 CAC Index 5,317.37 8.14 0.15 0.09 16.37 RTSSTD Index 15,337.27 130.46 0.86 12.18 7.83 IBEX Index 9,822.40 -54.1 -0.55 (2.21) 14.96 FTSEMIB Index 22,672.15 208.64 0.93 3.75 3.88 AEX Index 534.09 1.45 0.27 (1.93) 16.80 SMI Index 8,948.19 -19.24 -0.21 (4.62) 27.28 Asia / Pacific NKY Index 22,164.42 271.64 1.24 (2.64) 16.27 HSI Index 31,267.17 301.49 0.97 4.51 14.10 SHCOMP Index 3,289.02 20.465 0.63 (0.55) 16.72 TWSE Index 10,794.55 132.17 1.24 1.43 15.79 KOSPI Index 2,458.07 6.55 0.27 (0.38) 13.11 JCI Index 6,619.80 26.744 0.41 4.16 24.30 SET Index 1,808.06 19.43 1.09 3.10 18.89 PCOMP Index 8,467.56 -48.01 -0.56 (1.06) 22.90 SENSEX Index 34,142.15 322.65 0.95 0.25 23.28 FSSTI Index 3,533.22 44.76 1.28 3.83 11.73 Description Last Previous %Chg Market Capitalization (IDR Trillion) 7,363.93 7,334.17 0.41 Transaction Volume (Million Shares) 9,409.00 10,766.68 -12.61 Transaction Value (IDR Million) 7,076.00 6,216.22 13.83 Stocks Value (IDR) 752.05 577.36 30.26 Net Foreign (IDR Million) (193,219.50) (580,433.50) -66.71 Commodities Last Previous %Chg Nickel (US$/Ton) 13,765.00 13,830.00 -0.47 Copper (US$/Ton) 7,095.00 7,162.00 -0.94 Tins (US$/Ton) 21,650.00 21,575.00 0.35 Oil (US$/BBL) (*) 63.48 62.72 1.21 Gas (US$/MMBTU) 2.36 2.55 -7.62 Coal (US$/Ton) (**) 108.15 107.55 0.56 Gold (USD/OZ) 1,328.29 1,328.75 -0.03 CPO PALMROTT(USD/ton) n.a n.a n.a CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton) 2,492.00 2,494.50 -0.10 (*) WTI Cushing (**) McCloskey Newscatle ADR Stocks Last (US$) % Conversition Last (IDR) (US$) Chg (IDR) Stocks Code Last (US$) %Change Conv (Rp) Last (IDR) Telkom TLK US 29.69 0.24 10,142.85 4030.00 Recommendation TP (IDR) PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk (ADHI) BUY 2,800 PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk (MLBI) NOT RATED - PT Ace Hardawre Tbk (ACES) HOLD 1,435 PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) BUY 1,710 PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) NOT RATED - Company/Industry Updates Bloomberg Code
Transcript
Monday, February 26th 2018
D A I LY R E P O R T
Daily Report is also available in BNI Sekuritas website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id
RESEARCH Equity
MARKET PREDICTION TODAY
The JCI Is Estimated To Move Up
On the global market, previously on last Friday, the US bourse was in uptrend as Dow index rose by 1.39% to level 25,309 while Nasdaq increased by +1.77% then followed by S&P500 which was closed up by +1.60%. Meanwhile in European bourses, the indices were mixed which DAX Frankfurt surged by +0.18% then followed by CAC Paris which rose by +0.15% while FTSE London decreased by -0.11%. Moreover, in domestic bourse, the JCI on Friday last week was in uptrend although it was a slightly increase near the end of trading session. Later on, the JCI was closed up by +26 points (+0.41%) to level 6,619 which “foreign net sell” was reaching Rp193 billion. The biggest increases were in miscellaneous industry that was rose by +2.16% then followed by mining sector which increased by +0.63%. Meanwhile, the biggest decreases were in basic industry that was declined by -0.54% then followed by property sector which decreased by -0.15%. At the closing time of JCI on Friday, Rupiah (IDR) currency slightly strengthened against US dollar (USD) to the level of IDR 13,661 per USD. We see that on the opening JCI this week, most of investors would be interested on mining sector due to financial report release in last week. Moreover, the potential of strengthening coal price is expected to give a positive sentiment to the mining sector. Thus, the JCI today is predicted to move up in the range of 6,598-6,649. Our top stocks pick for today trading sessions are ITMG, ADRO, PTBA, and DOID.
ADR Stocks Last (US$) % Conversition Last (IDR)(US$) Chg (IDR)
Stocks Code Last (US$) %Change Conv (Rp) Last (IDR)Telkom TLK US 29.69 0.24 10,142.85 4030.00
Recommendation TP (IDR)PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk (ADHI) BUY 2,800PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk (MLBI) NOT RATED -PT Ace Hardawre Tbk (ACES) HOLD 1,435PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) BUY 1,710PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) NOT RATED -
Company/Industry Updates
Bloomberg Code
Monday, February 26th 2018
D A I LY R E P O R T
2
RESEARCH Equity
HIGHLIGHT NEWS PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk (FASW) experienced a declining profit of 23.4%
which could be distributed to the owner of the parent entity as of 31 December 2017 to Rp595.86 billion compared to profit of Rp778.01 billion in the same period last year.
PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (TCID) achieved revenues of Rp2.71 trillion during the year 2017 (unaudited) which the revenues consisted of domestic and export sales.
During January of this year, PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) booked marketing sales of Rp428 billion.
PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk (WTON) during the period of fiscal year 2017 successfully recorded an increasing net profit compared to a net profit as booked in 2016
PT Indoritel Makmur International Tbk (DNET) on February 20th, 2018 together with PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) had signed a Share Pledge Agreement.
(Source: IQ Plus; Bisnis Indonesia)
Net Foreign BUY Accumulation
USD/IDR Currency and JCI
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
-60,000,000
-50,000,000
-40,000,000
-30,000,000
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
3/01
/201
716
/01/
2017
27/0
1/20
179/
02/2
017
23/0
2/20
178/
03/2
017
21/0
3/20
174/
04/2
017
18/0
4/20
174/
05/2
017
18/0
5/20
172/
06/2
017
15/0
6/20
176/
07/2
017
19/0
7/20
171/
08/2
017
14/0
8/20
1728
/08/
2017
11/0
9/20
1725
/09/
2017
6/10
/201
719
/10/
2017
1/11
/201
714
/11/
2017
27/1
1/20
1711
/12/
2017
22/1
2/20
179/
01/2
018
22/0
1/20
182/
02/2
018
15/0
2/20
18
Accumulation JCI Index
12,800
12,900
13,000
13,100
13,200
13,300
13,400
13,500
13,600
13,700
13,800
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
JCI Index USDIDR
No Stock Top Value (IDR)1 AISA IJ 429,951,300,000 2 BBRI IJ 408,010,800,000 3 BBCA IJ 399,219,600,000 4 TRAM IJ 309,390,000,000 5 BMRI IJ 268,228,100,000
No Stock Top Volume (Shares)1 TRAM IJ 836,159,600.00 2 AISA IJ 682,232,700.00 3 DEWA IJ 626,147,300.00 4 BUMI IJ 608,230,700.00 5 MYRX IJ 590,700,200.00
No Top Gainers % Change1 BBRM IJ 34.552 BOSS IJ 253 CITA IJ 23.334 AISA IJ 22.025 NELY IJ 17.52
No Top Losers % Change1 LPGI IJ -10.222 TIRA IJ -103 SKBM IJ -9.654 KBLV IJ -7.695 AGRS IJ -7.43
No Leading Movers % Change1 BBCA IJ 1.462 ASII IJ 2.503 UNTR IJ 3.144 UNVR IJ 0.835 GGRM IJ 2.20
No Lagging Movers % Change1 BMRI IJ -0.872 SMGR IJ -4.473 CPIN IJ -4.414 HMSP IJ -0.425 WSKT IJ -3.06
Monday, February 26th 2018
D A I LY R E P O R T
3
RESEARCH Equity
COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE
News: PT Adhi Karya (ADHI)’s Plan to Establish a New Subsidiary
ADHI will separate its hotel business line under a new subsidiary namely PT Adhi Commuter Properti. Through the new subsidiary, the company will work on property projects and hotel along LRT line of Jabodebek (Jakarta Bogor Depok Bekasi). The plan required shareholders’ approval on 13 April 2018 AGM.
Analyst Opinion:
We believe that the company’s plan to establish a new subsidiary will make ADHI more focus on hotel and property businesses management along LRT line. The demand potential on the area is relatively high due to its location which is adjacent to new transportation mode as an alternative for traffic jam solution. We are still confident for the positive growth of ADHI’s performance in the future, which we estimate ADHI to book revenue and net profit growth of 17.0% YoY to Rp 17.1 trillion and 26.6% YoY to Rp 649.2 billion respectively in FY18 from estimated revenue and net profit of Rp 14.6 trillion and Rp 512.6 billion in FY17. Meanwhile, operating margin is estimated to reach 9.3%, while net profit margin could be 3.8% this year from forecasted operating margin of 9.1% and net profit margin of 3.5% last year. Furthermore, the company is predicted to reach ROE of 10.2% and ROA of 2.9% in FY18 compared to estimated ROE and ROA of 8.8% and 2.6% respectively in FY17. Currently, ADHI stock is traded with forward 2018E PER of 13.2x and PBV of 1.4x which are lower than industry average with PER of 14.9x and PBV of 1.8x. As a result, we still recommend BUY for ADHI with a target price (TP) of Rp2,800 per share.
News: PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk (MLBI)’s Profit Rose by 34.86% yoy in 2017
MLBI posted revenues of Rp 3.39 trillion in the full year period of 2017 which its revenue increased by 3.88% year on year (yoy). At the company's cost expenses post, there were no significant increase. MLBI’s cost of sales only increased by 0.22% yoy to Rp 1.11 trillion. Meanwhile, marketing sales expense decreased by 7.57% yoy to Rp 525.33 billion.
Analyst Opinion:
We view positively on the performance results of MLBI in 2017. Currently, besides operating a factory in Tangerang, MLBI also operates a factory in Simpang Agung, Mojokerto, East Java with a production capacity of 500,000 hectoliters per year. In general, MLBI in FY17 recorded the declining general and administrative expenses of 15.27% yoy to Rp 175.27 billion. Similarly, the financial cost fell by 67.28% yoy to Rp 25.24 billion. On the other hand, MLBI's profit rose by 34.86% yoy to Rp 1.32 trillion compared to profit of Rp 981.82 billion in FY16. At the end of December 2017, MLBI’s liabilities amounted to Rp 1.44 trillion and equity of Rp 1.06 trillion with the company’s asset value of Rp 2.51 trillion. Currently MLBI stock is traded with PE of 24.80x which is still relatively lower than the average consumer industry with PE of 36.64x. Recommendation: NOT RATED.
News: PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES)’s Performance in January 2018
Analyst Opinion:
The total sales rose by 17% YoY to Rp446 billion in January 2018. Moreover, ACES targets the increasing sales of 10% YoY by the end of 2018 which is a quite optimistic target amid the unfavorable retail industry condition recently. On the expansion side, the company targets 10-15 new stores as supported by capital expenditure (capex) of Rp300. ACES will also try to expand the contribution of online platform (ruparupa.com) which currently contributes only 1% to the company’s total revenues. Currently, ACES stock is traded with PE of 33.2x and PBV of 6.8x which are higher than peers’ average with PE of 25.2x and PBV of 5.73x. The stock price has been appreciated by 18.18% as of YTD. Recommendation: HOLD with a target price (TP) of Rp1,435 per share. The TP has an upside potential of 5.12% from its closing price of Rp1,365 on February 23rd, 2018.
News: PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) on its Biosimilar Products
Analyst Opinion:
The Company targets the commercial sales for its biosimilar product starting this year. The biosimilar product is the new type of products that are produced similar to its original drugs. In the long term, KLBF targets its full capacity for producing biosimilar products until 2025. In terms of export market, KLBF will also continue to expand its market share to be 6%-7% in overseas to 6%-7% for this year by focusing on Srilanka (nutrition segment) and Middle East markets. Currently, KLBF stock is traded with PE of 31.6x and PBV of 5.5x which is higher than peers’ average with PE of 33.25x but lower than peers’ average with PBV of 10.69x. The stock price has been depreciated by -5.33% as of YTD. Recommendation: BUY with a target price (TP) of Rp1,710 per share. The TP has an upside potential of 10.9% from its closing price of Rp1,610 on February 23rd, 2018.
News: This year PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) will rejuvenate 700 units of taxis
This year, the Company will rejuvenate about 700 units of taxis which are older than 5 years. Not only in taxi segment, the company will also rejuvenate for executive taxi and rental. The capital expenditure for the turnover of 1,000 units of taxis reached Rp200 billion.
Analyst Opinion:
In the midst of intense competition in the taxi business, we assess the rejuvenation of fleet will be better than the additional fleet. Moreover, the Company's fleet utilization is still not maximal, reaching only 68% after selling about 2,000 units of taxis last year. Since the entry of online transportation services, the Company's financial performance is still depressed. Until 9M17, its revenue fell by 14.0% YoY to Rp3.13 trillion and net profit was down by 16.2% YoY to Rp302.12 billion. Currently, BIRD stock is traded with PER of 17.5x and PBV of 1.7x. Recommendation: NOT RATED.
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