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Monetary Policy Report
July 2012
Unease in Europe casts a shadow over the Swedish economy
Unease on financial markets
Government bonds with 10 years left to maturity, per cent
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
08 09 10 11 12
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Large differences in growth in Europe
GDP growth, annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Germany, Statistics Norway, Istat, National Institute of Statistics, Italy and INE – National
Statistics Institute, Spain
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
07 08 09 10 11 12
Spain
Italy
Norway
Germany
Limited contagion effects on rest of world
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, IMF and the
Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
The world
USA
Euro area
Continued growth in Sweden despite Europe’s problems
GDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
April
July
Confidence among households and companies has dampened slightly
Index, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10 Source: National Institute of Economic Research
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
07 08 09 10 11 12
The Economic Tendency Indicator
Mean
+/- one standard deviation
Labour market better than expected
Unemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
April
July
Increased cost pressures
Wages according to the short-term wage statistics, definitive and forecast of definitive outcome, annual percentage change
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Short-term wages, definitiveShort-term wages, forecast of definitive outcomeMean 1998 - Q1 2011
Low but rising inflation
Note. Annual percentage change. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPIF
CPI
Repo rate remains low
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
April
July
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
A forecast, not a promise
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
Confidence among households and
companies returns faster than expected
Problems in the euro area worsen
Unease in Europe casts a shadow over the Swedish economy