83
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessement 1/13 Charts
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessement 1/13
Charts
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
−5
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−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MPR 3/12
MPR 1/13
Chart 1.1 GDP trading partners in MPR 3/12 and 1/13. Four−quarter change.Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MPR 3/12
MPR 1/13
Chart 1.2 Money market rates for trading partners1)
in MPR 3/12 and 1/13.Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) Broken red and blue lines show estimated forward rates for trading partners as at 15 October and 8 March 2013. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) ratesSource: Norges Bank
Jan−08Jul−08Jan−09Jul−09Jan−10Jul−10Jan−11Jul−11Jan−12Jul−12Jan−13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
I−44
Projection MPR 3/12
Projection MPR 1/13
Chart 1.3 Import−weighted exchange rate index (I−44).1)
January 2008 – June 2013
1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rateSource: Norges Bank
Jan−10 Jul−10 Jan−11 Jul−11 Jan−12 Jul−12 Jan−13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Key policy rate
Premium in the money market
Risk premium on 5−year covered bonds
Residential mortgage rate (credit lines)
Estimated cost of mortgage financing2)
Chart 1.4 Mortgage lending rates1)
and interest margins.Percent. 1 January 2010 – 8 March 2012
1) The lending rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway 2) Estimated using weighted interest rate on holdings of covered bonds and weighted deposit rateSources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
MPR 3/12
MPR 1/13
Chart 1.5 Projected output gap1)
in MPR 3/12 and 1/13.Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q2
1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP mainland Norway andprojected potential GDP mainland Norway Source: Norges Bank
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
−2.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
−2.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
CPI 20% trimmed mean
CPI−ATE1)
CPIXE2)
CPIM3)
Chart 1.6 Consumer prices. 12−month change.Percent. January 2004 – Febuary 2013
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 3) Model−based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic Commentaries 5/2010Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Variation
Inflation target
CPI
Chart 1.7 Inflation. Moving 10−year average1)
and variation2)
in CPI.Percent. 1981 – 2012
1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back 2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excludingenergy products in the average period, measured by +/− one standard deviation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
2.5
5
0
2.5
5
Expected inflation 5 years ahead
Expected inflation 2 years ahead
Chart 1.8 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.1)
Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2013 Q1
1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economistsin the financial industry and academia Sources: TNS Gallup and Opinion Perduco
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6CPI−ATE
Norwegian produced goods and services excluding house rent
Imported consumer goods
House rent
Chart 1.9 CPI−ATE1)
by supplier sector. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q4
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy productsSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1.10a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario withprobability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1.10b Projected output gap1)
in the baseline scenario with probabilitydistribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projectedpotential mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1.10c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with probabilitydistribution. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1.10d Projected CPIXE1)
in the baseline scenario with probabilitydistribution. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As fromAugust 2008, the CPIXE is a real−time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank
3/071/08
2/08
3/08
17 Dec 08
1/092/09
3/091/102/10 3/10
1/11
2/11
3/11
1/122/12
3/12
1/13
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
MPR 2/12
MPR 3/12
MPR 1/13
Chart 1.11 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period,actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Percent. January 2008 – December 2016
Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Estimated forward rates MPR 3/12
Estimated forward rates MPR 1/13
Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR 3/12
Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR 1/13
Chart 1.12 Three−month money market rates in the baseline scenario1)
and
estimated forward rates2)
. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into themoney market. 2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue and red bands show the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 11 October – 25 October and 25 February – 8 March 2013 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Key policy rate
3−month money market rate
Lending rate, households
Chart 1.13 Projected key policy rate, three−month money market rate and lending
rates on household loans1)
. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q3
1) Average lending rate from banks and mortgage companies on all household loansSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
80
85
90
95
100
105−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
I−44 (left−hand scale)
3−month rate differential (right−hand scale)
Chart 1.14 Three−month money market rate differential between Norway1)
and
trading partners and the import−weighted exchange rate index (I−44)2)
.
January 2003 – December 2016 3)
1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into themoney market 2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 3) Monthly figures from January 2003 and Norges Bank projections from 2013 Q1 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Output gap (left−hand scale)
CPIXE (right−hand scale)
Chart 1.15 Projected inflation1)
and output gap in the baseline scenario.Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real−time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
House prices
Credit growth
Chart 1.16 Credit growth1)
and house prices.
12−month change. Percent. January 2004 – December 2016 2)
1) From January 1 2012 the Norwegian standard for institutional sector grouping was changed. For creditgrowth this implies a break in the series from March 2012 2) House prices up to and including Febuary 2013, credit growth up to and including January 2013. Projections to 2016 Q4, where debt growth is change in inventory and house prices is year−on−year rise Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
Interest burden (left−hand scale)
Debt burden (right−hand scale)
Chart 1.17 Household debt burden1)
and interest burden2)
.Percent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 20162) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimatedreinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2016 plus interest expenses Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1.18 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario and strategy intervalwith probability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Key policy rate in the baseline scenario
Rule with foreign interest rates
Growth rule
Model−robust interest rate rule
Taylor rule
Chart 1.19 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary
policy rules.1)
Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q2
1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank’s projections for the output gap, growth gap,consumer prices and 3−month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in3−month money market rates Source: Norges Bank
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
90 percent confidence interval
Key policy rate in baseline scenario
Chart 1.20 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from
Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.1)
Percent. 2004 Q1 – 2013 Q2
1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and 3−month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2012 Q4. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussionSource: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Chart 1.21a Key policy rate. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Chart 1.21b Output gap. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Chart 1.21c CPIXE1)
. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real−time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Chart 1.22 Key policy rate in a technical model−based interest rate forecast andthe baseline scenario in MPR 1/13 (black line). Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1.23 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/12 with probability distribution and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/13 (red line).Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3
−2
−1
0
1
2
−2
−1
0
1
2
Change in the interest rate forecast Prices and costs
Capacity utilisation Growth abroad
Lending margins
Chart 1.24 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 3/12.Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2013 Q1 – 2015 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Crises
Average (1975 Q4 – 2012 Q3)
Credit/GDP
Trend²⁾
Chart 2.1 Total credit1) mainland Norway as a percentage of GDP mainland Norway.
Percent.1975 Q4 - 2012 Q3
1) The sum of C3 non-financial corporations in mainland Norway (total economy before 1995)
and C2 households
2) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000
Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Crises
Average (1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4)
House prices/disposable income
Trend³⁾
Chart 2.2 House prices1) as a percentage of disposable income2). Indexed.
1998 Q4 = 100. 1978 Q4 – 2012 Q4
1) Quarterly figures before 1990 are calculated with linear interpolation of annual figures
2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of
equity capital for 2006 – 2012
3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmegler-
foretakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Crises
Average (1981 Q2 – 2012 Q4)
Real commercial property prices
Trend²⁾
Chart 2.3 Real commercial property prices1). Indexed. 1998 = 100.
Semi-annual data. 1981 – 2012
1) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by a GDP deflator for mainland Norway
2) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000
Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway
0
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Crises
Average (1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4)
Wholesale funding/total assets
Trend³⁾
Chart 2.4 Banks'1) wholesale funding as a percentage of total assets2). Percent.
1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4
1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and
subsidiaries of foreign banks
2) Quarterly figures before 1989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures
3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000
Source: Norges Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Foreign debt in non-financial enterprises
Domestic debt in non-financial enterprises (C2)
Debt households (C2)
Chart 2.5 Total private credit/GDP mainland Norway. Decomposed. Percent.
1975 Q4 – 2012 Q3
Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
GDP-growth mainland Norway
Growth in debt, households (C2)
Growth in total debt, non-financial enterprises (C3)¹⁾
Chart 2.6 Debt of households and non-financial enterprises and mainland GDP.
4-quarter growth. Percent. 1975 Q4 - 2012 Q4
1) The sum of C2 non-financial enterprises and foreign debt of non-financial enterprises.
Mainland Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Growth in disposable income
Growth in houshold debt
Debt burden, right axis
Chart 2.7 Household debt burden1). Percent. 1978 Q4 – 2012 Q3
1) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend
income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2012
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Crises
Real house prices
Trend³⁾
Chart 2.8 Real house prices1)2). Indexed . 1998 Q4 =100. 1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4
1) Quarterly figures before 1990 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures
2) Deflated by CPI
3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmegler-
foretakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank
Chart 2.9 House prices by region. 12-month change. Percent. Monthly data.
January 2006 – February 2013
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Pöyry, Finn.no and
Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oslo
Rogaland
Hordaland
Trøndelag
Agder
Hedmark
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
UK
Netherlands
Spain
Chart 2.10 House prices in selected countries. Indexed. 1995 Q1 = 100.
Quarterly data. 1995 Q1 – 2012 Q4
Source: Thomson Reuters
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Growth in disposable income
Growth in house prices
Chart 2.11 House prices1) and disposable income2). 4-quarter growth. Percent.
1978 Q4 – 2012 Q4
1) Quarterly figures before 1990 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures
2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction
of equity capital for 2006 – 2012
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF),
Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Chart 2.12 Non-residential building starts. Adjusted for seasonal and irregular
components. 1000 m2. 1983 – 2012
Source: Statistics Norway
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Oslo (central part, prestige segment) Oslo (central part, high standard)
Oslo (central part, good standard) Kristiansand
Stavanger (central part) Tromsø
Bergen Trondheim
Chart 2.13 Rental prices for office premises. NOK per square metre (at constant
2012 prices). Semi-annual figures. 1985 – 2012
Sources: Statistics Norway, Dagens Næringsliv and OPAK
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Growth in total assets
Growth in wholesale funding
Chart 2.14 Banks'1) total assets and wholesale funding2). 4-quarter growth.
Percent. 1981 Q2 – 2012 Q4
1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of
foreign banks in Norway
2) Quarterly figures before 1989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures
Source: Norges Bank
9.3
8.0 8.3
9.6
8.9
10.6
9.9 10.5
10.7
10.0
10.7
10.0 10.3
11.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
DNB Bank Nordea Bank
Norge
SpareBank 1
SR-Bank
Sparebanken
Vest
SpareBank 1
SMN
SpareBank 1
Nord-Norge
All Norwegian
banks
2011 2012
Chart 2.15 Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio at year-end. Large banking groups1)
and all Norwegian banks2). Percent. 2011 – 2012
1) Norwegian banking groups with total assets larger than NOK 60 billion
2) For banks that are financial conglomerates, consolidated level data are used. For other banks,
solo level data are used
Sources: Banking groups' earnings reports, Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Sources: IMF and Norges Bank
Contribution from emerging economies
Contribution from advanced economies
Average global growth 1980 – 2011
Chart 3.1 Global GDP. Weighted to reflect each country's share of global output measured in a common currency (market exchange rates). Annual growth. Percent. 1990 – 2016. Projections from 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
US
Germany
UK
Spain
Italy
Chart 3.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. Percent. Daily data. 1 January 2010 – 8 March 2013
Source: Thomson Reuters
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
US (S&P 500)
Germany (DAX)
Spain (IBEX)
Italy (FTSE MIB)
Emerging economies (MSCI EM)
Chart 3.3 Developments in equity markets. Index. 1 January 2010 = 100. 1 January 2010 – 8 March 2013
Source: Thomson Reuters
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US
Euro area³⁾
UK
Sweden
Chart 3.4 Key rates and estimated forward rates at 31 October 2012 and 8 March 2013.¹⁾ Percent. 1 January 2010 – 31 December 2016²⁾
1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at 31 October 2012. Thin lines show forward rates at 8 March 2013. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates2) Daily data from 1 January 2010 and quarterly data from 2013 Q23) EONIA for the euro area from 2013 Q2Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Housing starts (left-hand scale)
NAHB (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.5 US housing market. Housing starts (in thousands) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index. Monthly data. January 2000 – January 2013
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Corporate credit demand (left-hand scale)
Fixed investment (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.6 Fixed investment in the euro area. Four-quarter change. Percent. Change in corporate credit demand¹⁾. 2000 Q1 - 2012 Q4
1) Euro area bank lending survey. Values above zero indicate net increase in credit demand Sources: Thomson Reuters, Eurostat and ECB
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Greece¹⁾
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Euro area
Chart 3.7 Unit labour costs. Seasonally adjusted index. 2000 Q1 = 100. 2000 Q1 – 2012 Q3
1) 2001 Q1 = 100. Four-quarter moving average, not seasonally adjusted Sources: OECD and Norges Bank
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Greece
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Chart 3.8 Unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Monthly data. January 2000 – January 2013
Source: Thomson Reuters
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Emerging economies in Asia excluding China¹⁾
China
OECD
Average 2000 - 2007
Chart 3.9 Retail sales in emerging economies in Asia and in the OECD. Volume. Three-month moving average. 12-month change. Percent. January 2000 – December 2012
1) GDP-weighted (PPP). Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, South-Korea and Taiwan Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 3.10 Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU.Monthly data. January 2003 – December 2015
Coal US
Oil
Gas UK
Gas US
Gas Russia
Gas Norway
Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Futures prices
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Copper
Wheat
Maize
Soya beans
Aluminium
Chart 3.11 Commodity prices. USD. Index. 2 January 2003 = 100.Daily data. January 2003 – December 2015
Sources: CME Group, ICE and Thomson Reuters
Futures prices
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
11581 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
I-44
TWI
Chart 3.12 Developments in the krone exchange rate. Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44) and trade-weighted index (TWI)¹⁾. Daily data. 11 December 1981 – 8 March 2013
1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rateSource: Norges Bank
Chart 3.13 Banks' and mortgage companies' qualitative assessment of access to and premiums on wholesale funding.1) March 2008 – February 2013
1) Average reported by banks in Norges Bank's liquidity survey. For short-term funding in forreign currency only banks active in these markets are included. Red indicates reduced access and higher premiums, grey indicates unchanged, green indicates increased access and lower premiums Source: Norges Bank
Access fundingShort-term NOKShort-term foreign curr.Long-term NOKLong-term foreign curr.Risk premium fundingShort-term NOKShort-term foreign curr.Long-term NOKLong-term foreign curr.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average risk premium on outstanding covered bonds
Risk premium on new covered bonds
Average risk premium on outstanding senior bonds
Risk premium on new senior bonds
Chart 3.14 Estimated average risk premium1) on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banking groups2). Basis points. Monthly average. January 2006 – February 2013
1) Difference against 3-month NIBOR2) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches of foreign banks in NorwaySources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Money market premium
Key policy rate
Deposit rate (Statistics Norway)
Chart 3.15 Deposit rate1) and margin. Percent. 1. January 2010 – 8. March 2013
1) All banks in NorwaySources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses
Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits
Chart 3.16 Banks'1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Percent. Annual data. 2008 – 2012
1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway, but including branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Solo levelSource: Norges Bank
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000
IRB banks (with transitional rule)
Standardised approach banks
Current temporary requirement (EBA requirement) + countercyclical buffer of 2.5 pts.
Current temporary requirement (EBA requirement)
Total assets (logarithmic scale)
Com
mon
Equ
ity T
ier
1 ca
pita
l rat
io
Chart 3.17 Banking groups'1) Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio. Percent. Total assets. In billions of NOK. At 31 December 2012
1) Banking groups with total assets in excess of NOK 10bn, excluding branches of foreign banksin NorwaySources: Finanstilsynet, banking groups' earnings reports and Norges Bank
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
All banks DNB + commercialbanks
Savings banksTotal assets >
NOK 20bn
Savings banksTotal assets <
NOK 20bn
2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4
Chart 3.18 Banks'1) liquidity coverage ratio (LCR).2) Consolidated data.Weighted average for the group. At end-quarter
1) All banks in Norway excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway2) Calculations are based on the recommendations published by the Basel Committee in 2010Sources: Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Deposit-to-loan ratio
Deposit-to-loan ratio excluding foreign financial enterprises
Chart 3.19 Deposit-to-loan ratio – customers of Norwegian banks and mortgage companies.1) Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q4
1) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in NorwaySource: Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE
Chart 3.20 CPI, CPI-ATE1) and CPIXE2). 12-month change. Percent. January 2009 – June 20133)
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/20093) Projections for March 2013 – June 2013 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2.5
0
2.5
5
-2.5
0
2.5
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Projections for March 2013 – June 2013 (broken lines) 3) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.21 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector. 12-month change. Percent. January 2009 – June 20132)
CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services³⁾
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201180
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
ULC mainland Norway
ULC for sectors that produce consumer goods and services
CPI-ATED excluding rent
Chart 3.22 Unit labour costs and prices for domestically produced consumer goods and services, excluding rent. Index. 2001 = 100. 2001 – 2012
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1) Projections for 2013Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.23 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 20131)
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
MPR 1/13
SAM
CPI-ATE
Chart 3.24 CPI-ATE1). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM2) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2011 Q1 – 2013 Q23)
30% 50% 70% 90%
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) System for averaging short-term models3) Projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
MPR 1/13
SAM
GDP mainland Norway
Chart 3.25 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM1) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. 2011 Q1 – 2013 Q22)
1) System for averaging short-term models2) Projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
30% 50% 70% 90%
-2
0
2
4
-2
0
2
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Regional network
Mainland GDP growth
Chart 3.26 GDP mainland Norway1) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2013 Q22)
1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume2) Latest observation in the regional network is January 2013. Latest GDP observation is 2012 Q4, projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Source: Norges Bank
Output gap MPR 1/13 (left-hand scale)
Capacity constraints (right-hand scale)
Labour supply (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.27 Capacity constraints and labour supply1) as reported by Norges Bank's regional network and estimated output gap. Percent. 2005 Q1 – 2013
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Regional network
Employment growth
Chart 3.28 Employment1) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2013 Q22)
1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts2) Latest observation in the Regional network is January 2013. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2012 Q4, projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110
2
4
6
8
Annual wage growth Unemployment rate
Chart 3.29 Annual wage growth1) and LFS unemployment. Percent. 1993 – 20132)
1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions2) Projections for 2013 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Saving ratioSaving ratio excl. dividend incomeNet lending ratio, excl. dividend income
Chart 3.30 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent. 1992 – 20161)
1) Projections for 2013 – 2016 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
34 % 10 % 7 %0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
All²⁾ All in income deciles2-9 with net debt³⁾
All in income deciles2-9 with net debt and
debt burden 3 to 10 times disposable income⁴⁾
Debt (average)
Gross financial assets (average)
Gross financial assets to debt ratio
Chart 3.31 Total household1) debt and gross financial assets. Average. In thousands of NOK. 2010
1) Excluding self-employed2) 2.19m households 3) 1.16m households 4) 455 000 householdsSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
%
0
2
4
6
8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20150
2
4
6
8
Household consumption Household real disposable income
Chart 3.32 Household consumption1) and real disposable income2). Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 20163)
1) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume2) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations3) Projections for 2013 – 2016 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20130
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1) Projections for 2012 and 20132) Projections for 2013Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Difference between number ofhousing completions and increase inhouseholds (left-hand scale)Population growth (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.33 Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households1), and population growth2). 2003 – 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
1) Projections for 2013Source: Statistics Norway
Petroleum investment
Business investment
Housing investment
Chart 3.34 Investment as share of GDP mainland Norway. Volume. Percent. 1981 – 20131)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
1) Projections for 2013 – 2016 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.35 Petroleum investment. Constant 2010 prices. In billions of NOK.1992 – 20161)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
1) Annual figures in the period 1981 – 1995, quarterly figures from 1996 Q4Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway
Employment growth (left-hand scale)
Market value (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.36 Market value of office premises in Oslo and employment growth1). NOK 1000 per square metre (at constant 2012 prices) and four-quarter change in percent. Semi-annual and quarterly figures. 1981 – 2012
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Return on equity (left-hand scale)
Return on total assets (left-hand scale)
Equity ratio (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.37 Return on equity1) and total assets2) and equity ratio3). Percent. Annual figures. 1999 – 2011
1) Earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation as a percentage of equity 2) Earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation as a percentage of total assets3) Sample of limited companies holding interest-bearing debt. Excluding government, banking/insurance and exploitation of natural rescoursesSource: Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1) Projections for 2013 – 2016Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Chart 3.38 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant 2013 prices. In billions of NOK. 2003 – 20161)
Structural non-oil deficit
Expected real return
