Moneyball and Metrics that Matter® John R. Mattox, II, Ph.D. Director of Research Friday March 8,...

Moneyball and Metrics that Matter®

John R. Mattox, II, Ph.D.Director of Research

Friday March 8, 2013 9:45a – 10:45a

Agenda

• Recap Moneyball• Themes that make Moneyball relevant• How is Metrics that Matter® like Moneyball• What does this mean for you?

(Or how can you be more like Brad Pitt?)

March 8, 2013 3© 2013 Copyright KnowledgeAdvisors

Baseball Movies

• What are the greatest baseball movies of all time?

March 8, 2013 4© 2013 Copyright KnowledgeAdvisors

• Pride of the Yankees• The Rookie• The Bad News Bears• A League of Their Own• Fever Pitch

• Field of Dreams*• Bang the Drum Slowly• Moneyball• Bull Durham*• The Natural

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2012/10/23/top-10-best-baseball-movies-of-all-time/

Not on the list:

•Major League•For the Love of the Game*

Moneyball

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• Brad Pitt as Billy Beane, former player and general manager of the Oakland A’s

• Responsible for finding the best players for the club

March 8, 2013 © 2013 Copyright KnowledgeAdvisors

Plot• Billy is a former top draft pick and chose to join

the major leagues rather than attend Stanford• Had all the right skills:– Arm strength – Speed – Hitting ability – Power (hitting with power) – Fielding

He should have been wildly successful as a player, but he was not. He knew the predictors of success were flawed.

6March 8, 2013 © 2013 Copyright KnowledgeAdvisors

Plot• 2001 Oakland A’s go to the playoffs and nearly

make it to the World Series• 2002 high performers leave for bigger markets

due to free agency (more money)– Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Jason Isringhausen

• Beane has to replace this talent• Moreover he has only one-third the budget of

top teams like the Yankees

How can he remain competitive?


Competitive Advantage

• Find new talent– Minor leagues– College / high school

• Get more money to buy old talent– The boss offers no new money

• Look at the game a different wayHe knew he had to find new ways of assessing undervalued

talent that he could acquire but didn’t know how.


Enter Peter Brand

• Jonah Hill plays Peter Brand, a fictionalized version of Paul DePodesta, who played baseball and football at Harvard.

• He joined the A’s as an assistant to Beane. • His role: –Predict wins*– Find talent–Determine player value


Transition

• Great scene—Beane throws out the old guard

Old Guard• Recruiting squad• Former athletes

• Opinionated—based on gut and experience• Using old measures• Unable to adapt to

need to optimize talent and minimize cost

New Guard• Recruiting analyst• Opinionated—based

on data• New measures that

lead to wins• Top talent at least cost


New Metrics

• On base percentage– Not just hits– Working the strike zone– Wearing out a pitcher– A walk is as good as a hit

• Defense is overvalued• Trade for value– Trade 1 high cost player for multiple low cost players


New TeamIsland of Misfit Toys

– A catcher with bad knees playing first base because he can work the count and get on base

– A pitcher who throws side-arm

– A overweight catcher from U of Alabama that no one was interested in recruiting

– A baby brother—Jeremy Giambi (great hitter, terrible defense)

– Trade their star candidate for rookie of the year to acquire other players


Short run / Long run

Early Season• Manager not bought

into the philosophy• Not playing the right

players• Losing record

Late Season• Beane trades away manager’s favorites

• Win 20 games in a row• 103 – 59 record• Win the AL West


Leadership

• Find a new way to evaluate players• Adopt a new philosophy

– Find all players that can do the job – Determine undervalued players– Hire them despite contrarian opinions

• Ruthlessly (unemotionally) cut for the good of the organization

• Persist in the face of adversity (recruiting staff and early losses)


Davenport’s Summary

• Tom Davenport, who frequently writes about analytics, described six ways that most organizations are like the Oakland A’s:– Analytics can provide organizations with an edge – Analytics can help you recruit your best team – A transition to analytics will require strong leadership – Gaining an edge requires skills and attention – The changes toward metrics will be met with

opposition – Analytics alone won’t carry the day

– http://blogs.hbr.org/davenport/2011/09/six_things_your_company_has_in.html


Metrics that Matter®

• Moneyball describes a game changer with a new philosophy

• How is Metrics that Matter® similar?– Leadership– Efficiency– Effectiveness– Strategy– Executive reporting– Benchmarks


Metrics that Matter® Leadership

Leadership– Measuring in an under-

measured and under-valued space (L&D) to bring efficiency and demonstrate effectiveness

– Expanding measurement to include human capital analytics(Employee Survey Module)


Metrics that Matter® Efficiency

Efficiency– Provide a world-class learning

analytics systems• Is 4 times more efficient than

manual processes• Standard forms / Smart Sheets

(Levels 1 – 5)• Connects to LMS / HRIS• Automates distribution, collection

and reporting• Uses OLAP to increase analytics

processing and reporting


Metrics that Matter® Effectiveness

Effectiveness– Provide a world-class learning

analytics systems• Fully automates the measurement

of Levels 1 - 5• Provide predictive analytics—

indicators of whether training will have job impact & business results

• Report individual and aggregated class results (including conferences)

• Display information using dashboards


Metrics that Matter® StrategyStrategy– Advise organizations on the

best ways to build sustainable measurement practices• Use diagnostic tools to assess

current state of measurement maturity

• Use tools to assess knowledge and skills about evaluation practices among employees

• Develop a future state vision and roadmap for success


Metrics that Matter®--Executive Reporting

Executive Reporting– Executives are selective about

what they read and how they read it• Talent Development Reporting

Principles is designed to communicate the value of L&D to executives

• Focuses on– Efficiency– Effectiveness– Outcomes


Metrics that Matter® Benchmarks

Benchmarks– Nearly 1 Billion data points

in the Metrics that Matter® system

– Analyze by • Industry• Job Role• Region• Course Type


So Much More … Technology Modules


Thank You & Let’s Talk

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For further information contact:

John R. Mattox, II, Ph.D.Director of Research

615 714 [email protected]

www.knowledgeadvisors.com


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