MONGOLIA:ACTIVITIES AIMED AT IMPROVING MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

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B.BADAMTSETSEG NSO, Mongolia

High-level Meeting for Coordinated Implementation of International Standards for Macroeconomic Statistics, Vladivostok

3-4 Sep, 2014

CONTENTS

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I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO-ECONOMIC STATISTICS

III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING THE ECONOMIC STATISTICS

IV. CONCLUSION

V. FUTURE ACTIVITIES

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NSDS (2011-2015)approved by Parliament

Action plan (2011-2015)approved by Statistical Counsel

Annual work plan approved by NSO Chairman

I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

The implementation of Macroeconomic statistics was the integral part of the NSDS

Next round of NSDS 2016-2020: on going process

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The implementation of Macroeconomic statistics was the integral part of the Monstat project.

Component A:Improving policy, regulatory, and institutional framework and the

organizational structure of the statistical system;

Component B:Strengthening the statistical

infrastructure;

Component C: Upgrading statistical data outputs;

Component D:Preparation of an IT-Plan;

MonStat Project 2009-2014

(World Bank)

I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

Institutional structure has been set up for improving Macroeconomic statistics and activities have started. Inter-agency working group:Composition:

• NSO• Bank of Mongolia• Ministry of Finance• Ministry of Economic Development• General Customs Office

Objectives of the working group:• To study changes of SNA 1993 to ensure integration and harmony

between 2008 SNA, BPM6 and GFS 2014;• To implement 2008 SNA recommendations;• To produce core set of economic statistics;• To create necessary data sources.

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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

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Implemented activities within the group: • Several meetings were organized and the following arrangements

were made:

Harmony between 2008 SNA, BPM6, and GFSM-2014;

Introduction of SUT 2010’s results;

Improve calculation of export, import price index and termsof trade index;

Update the methodology of foreign trade statistics.

• Translation “GFSM-2014” financed by MOF;

• Consultant’s service on “GFSM-2014” provided by IMF.

II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Statistical infrastructure has been improved:• Systematic revision of questionnaires and creation of data sources

for compilation of annual SUT;

• Technological solution enabling automatic updating of BR database based on GASR data;

• Introduction of sample survey to economic statistics and start of seasonally adjusted estimations.

Latest versions of classifications have been revised and applied:• ISIC-4.0

• CPC-2.0

• COICOP

• Asset classification

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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Methodological foundation was set up for 2008 SNA.

Methodologies on:• GDP and GNI estimation • Quarterly GDP estimation • Sector accounts compilation • SUT and IOT compilation • Balance of payment methodology revised based on BPM6

Price statistics was improved:• Calculation of Regional CPI

• 2010 base year Industrial Production Index

• Calculation of 2010 base year Construction Cost Index• Calculation of HPI

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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

CENSUSES

Agricultural census, 2010-2011.

Establishmentcensus, 2010.

COMPILATION

First time, the results of SUT and IOT were disseminated to users in details.

Some main indicators were compiled according to SNA 2008 recommendations.

NON OBSERVED ECONOMY SURVEY

First time all (N1-N7) fields of NOE were covered.

Base data of informal sector were created.

Results of NOE were integrated to the annual GDP estimation.

The internationally comparative data were collected.

Related census, surveys and estimations have been carried out

GDP has estimated based on SUT and revised the estimation at constant price of 2010. The GDP dynamics has been revised for 2010-2013.

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• Basic indicators of GDPLevel 1

• GNI and other primary indicatorsLevel 2

i i l (fi f ll i i i l

)

• Institutional sector accounts (first step: for all institutionalsectors production accounts, current, capital and financialaccount)

Level 3

• Institutional sector accounts (intermediate step 1: for all institutional sectors current accounts and capital account)Level 4

• Institutional sector accounts (intermediate step 2: for all institutional sectors financial accounts)Level 5

• Other changes of volume accounts and balance sheetLevel 6

Scope of the implementation of the SNA 2008- “Milestone”

II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Series International(ESCAP) Mongolia

Incorporated indicators in

NSDS, MongoliaPrices and costs 6 5 3Demand and output 12 11 9Income and wealth 6 6 2Money and banking 3 3 3Government 2 2 3Labour market 2 2 2Natural resources and the environment

1 0 1

Total 32 29 22

II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO ECONOMIC STATISTICS

The core set of economic statistics: Availability of Core set of Economic Statistics /ESCAP/

Unavailable indicators: Labour costs index, consumer demand, natural resources

Bilateral cooperation

Visit to ABS:

• Compilation of National Accounts• Economic sector accounting and implementation of SEEA-CF-

2012• Australian experience on development of the Environmental-

Economic accounting

Visit to South Korea (NSO and MEGD):

• Policy in support of green growth;• Green growth indicators;• Greenhouse gas and registration of waste statistics;• Economic and environmental accounting.

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III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING ECONOMIC STATISTICS

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Ulaanbaatar city group-2012

UBCG on Statistics for Economies based on Natural Resources was established in 2012 (UNSC 43rd Session).

Steering Committee (12 countries and IO) and Expert group (13 countries and IO). Membership is still open to other countries.

Four work streams were defined.

• Work stream 1: Develop a harmonized system of standard indicators for data collection

• Work stream 2: Assess the impact of the mining industry on economies and develop practical recommendations;

III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS

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Ulaanbaatar city group-2012 (cont.)

• Work stream 3 and 4: Develop methodologies and indicators for assessing the impact of mining industry on the social and environmental sector.

Mongolia drafted the set of statistical indicators (more than 200 indicators) to measure the impacts of mining industry on economy, society and environment.

Structure of the guideline is described.

The Group will submit its report to the 46th Session of UNSC.

III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS

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Adapted global Assessment (UNECE, Eurostat, EFTA, ESCAP)-2013: The first country in the Asia-Pacific region.

Main objectives of AGA are to evaluate NSS as a whole, assess official statistics development and provide insight and recommendations for improving the entire system, operations, statistical activities and related capacities.

Recommendations: Recommendations were provided as a future direction to further

improve economic statistics.

Recommendations were given to prioritize the 2008 SNA changes and start to implement more important issues.

III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Information: International conference on Global assessment as basis for thedevelopment of a statistical system to be held on 1-2 October 2014 in UB.

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CHANGES IMPLEMENTATION

1 Research and development

Now: R&D falls into the fixed asset classification.Future: Firstly, to determine whether R&D has return or not. If it hasreturn then it assumed that a statistical unit and output will beestimated by a single unit.

2 Calculation of FISIM

Now: FISIM is distributed to IC and final consumption in thedomestic production framework.Future: FISIM will be distributed to export and import.

3 Output of Central Bank

Now: We use cost approach by using the formula: output = IC+compensation + CFCFuture: Identify Central Bank services in 3 groups and estimateoutput

4Output of non-life insurance services

Now: Output is calculated by using the following formula: output =insurance premium -insurance claim + other incomeFuture: NSO will choose a suitable one of 3 approaches forestimating non life-insurance output.

IV. CONCLUSION1. The changes to reflect in NA.

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CHANGES IMPLEMENTATION

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Valuation of output for own final use by households

Now: In progress. From the Agr. census result we got more datasources of output for own final use by household of agriculture.

Future: Other economic activities will be estimated.

6 Non observed economy Now: Completed.

7 Measurement of storage

Now: In progress.

Future: Separate estimation will be made for storage activity.

8 Weapons system

Now: Weapons system is classified in fixed asset according to theasset classification, hence it is included to the GFCF in GDP byexpenditure approach.Future: Estimation will be improved.

9 Consumption of fixed capital

Now: Deprecation rate is used for estimation.Future: We will introduce PIM method in our 2014-2015 GDPestimation.

1. The changes to reflect in NA (cont.)IV. CONCLUSION

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CHANGES IMPLEMENTATION

10 Institutional units andsectors

Now: Business register has been expanded by statisticalunit based on the Establishment Census.Future: Institutional sector’s classification will be revisedand approved.

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Refinement of thetreatment and definitionof financial instrumentsand assets

Now: It is reflected in the institutional sector accountsmethodology. Asset classification was revised andapproved.Future: To study about financial instrument. Data sourceof financial accounts will be applied and financial accountwill be compiled in experimental base.

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The scope of transactions concerning government and public sector

Now: Set up inter-agency working groupFuture: Plan is to translate GFS 2014, develop nationalmethodology, improve data sources. We will do list of publicsector enterprises and classify them into appropriate sector.

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Harmonization between concepts and classification of the SNA and BPM6

Now: “ВРM methodology” was revised and approved.

Future: Collaborate with Central Bank to ensure dataquality.

1. The changes to reflect in NA (cont.)IV. CONCLUSION

• To elaborate activities to further improve macroeconomic statistics and incorporate into the next NSDS;

• To compile annual SUT on experimental basis;

• To transfer/use Chain index;

• To improve Government Finance Statistics;

• To compile financial accounts and other changes of volume accounts;

• To strengthen and intensify cooperation and activities under cooperation arrangements:

– Allocation of FISIM

– Implement changes in insurance sector.

IV. FUTURE ACTIVITIES

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Web page : www.nso.mnwww.1212.mn

E-Mail : nso@magicnet.mn

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