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Monitoring and Evaluation
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• Objective of this session
• Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) – what do we want to measure?
• International frameworks for Monitoring and Tracking Adaptation
Content
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What you can expect to learn from this session:
• Get familiar with the challenges of
• Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) frameworks for adaptation projects
• Application of this knowledge to the finance area through a) measuring the impact of adaptation project >> effective spending b) options of tracking and coding >> transparent spending
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Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) – what do we want to measure?
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Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of adaptation impacts – what do we want to measure?
Purpose M&E approaches or methods
To monitor and evaluate the collective performance ofnumerous adaptation programmes and/or projects
In case of programmes/projects being managed by the same organisation: use of predefined standard indicators that can be aggregated across projects. Example: Adaptation indicators of the Adaptation Fund (AF, 2011)
To monitor whether a (sub)-national adaptation plan orstrategy is being implemented and achieving its results
Developing a (sub)-national M&E system and/or integrating adaptation into existing (sectoral) M&E systems in the country. No specific guidance currently exists, but the WRI/GIZ guidebook may provide general advice
To monitor whether an adaptation project is proceeding according to plan and achieving its results
Monitoring using a theory of change (Guidelines by GIZ, WRI/GIZ)
Source: GIZ 2013. A closer look at Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of Adaptation
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Adaptation M&E on a project level
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Adaptation M&E on a project level
Source: www.adaptationcommunity.netGIZ, 2014. Integrating climate change adaptation into development planning. Training module 6
5. Operationalise the M&E system
4. Define indicators and set a baseline
3. Developing a results framework
2. Identify the contribution to adaptation
1. Describe the adaptation context
GIZ’s Adaptation made to measure:Five-step model
The principal aim of M&E is to demonstrate the benefits of adaptation.
M&E needs to be already considered during the planning and design phase
Adaptation M&E at the project level does not require a completely different M&E system
Potential challenges for adaptation M&E at the project level: Designing meaningful adaptation
indicators beyond the output level. Dealing with the uncertainty in
climate and socio-economic development.
Evaluating project results after the project lifetime.
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Indicators can be categorised by type of adaptation activity:
Source: OECD, 2011
Types of adaptation indicators
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Adaptation M&E on a national level
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Adaptation M&E on a national level
Source: www.adaptationcommunity.netGIZ, 2014. Integrating climate change adaptation into development
planning. Training Module 6.
Effectively managing adaptation to climate change at national level requires an understanding of whether adaptation is taking place and what the outcomes of adaptation are.
M&E provides evidence for assessing the results of adaptation efforts and tracking progress towards climate resilient development.
Setting up national M&E system: Five-step model
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The MRV+ System under Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan
Policy context Kenya National Climate Change Action Plan 2013 - 2017
Purpose • Informing and guiding on implementation of climate change actions• Fulfilling international reporting obligations• Demonstrating Kenya’s climate finance readiness and attract international finance
Process Institutional set up • Integrated into existing institutional structures• Draws on information already gathered as part of standard M&E
Indicator-based approach
Institutional adaptive capacity
• 62 national-level, process-based indicators• 10 short-listed outcome-based indicators
Vulnerability • 62 national-level indicators on local-level outcomes• 10 short-listed outcome-based indicators
Reporting
Resources • ~100 people to set up and run the system• Up to 3 years to operationalize the system
M&E for adaptation
Kenya MRV+
MRV of GHG
Establishment process
1. Review of existing practices and literature2. Design of the system building on existing structures ~20 months
• Annual reports or Medium Term Plans for Ministries, Departments and Agencies��
• Vision 2030 progress reports��
• Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the UNFCCC• (every two years starting in December 2014)• National Communications to the UNFCCC��
Source: GIZ 2013. Monitoring and Evaluating Adaptation at Aggregated Levels: A Comparative Analysis of Ten SystemsGIZ 2014. Kenya: The MRV+ System under Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan
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M&E of multiple adaptation projects – international approaches
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• Complexity of the climate finance due to multitude of actors, mechanisms and rapidly changing environment
• Clear internationally agreed definitions of mitigation and adaptation finance needed
• Actions, which contribute to adaptation or mitigation co-benefits, are often not “coded” as climate relevant
• Double-counting adaptation and mitigation spending, when it involves multiple institutions
• Lack of tracking of private finance and complex methodological issues related to it
• Multiple and overlapping reporting systems on the international level
Defining, coding, and tracking climate finance
• No common metrics for tracking
• outcomes of adaptation projects are often intangible and difficult to quantify, and
• often cannot be directly compared across different locations
• Uncertainty inherent in climate projections and climate impacts.
• Close interconnection between climatic and non-climatic stressors
• Long time scales – in many cases, the ultimate success of adaptation can only be measured far into the future
Common challenges for climate finance Additional challenges for adaptation finance
Source: ODI 2012GIZ 2013. A closer look Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of Adaptation
17Source: Adaptation Fund Results Framework and Baseline Guidance
Adaptation Fund results management framework
Goal: “Assist developing-country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting the costs of concrete adaptation projects … ”
Impact: Increased resiliency at the community, national, and regional levels to climate variability and change
Outcomes:1. Reduced exposure at national level to climate-related hazards and threats2. Strengthened institutional capacity to reduce risks associated with climate-induced socioeconomic
and environmental losses3. Strengthened awareness and ownership of adaptation and climate risk reduction processes at
local level4. Increased adaptive capacity within relevant development and natural resource sectors5. Increased ecosystem resilience in response to climate change and variability-induced stress6. Diversified and strengthened livelihoods and sources of income for vulnerable people in targeted
areas7. Improved policies and regulations that promote and enforce resilience measures
Each outcome includes 1-2 outputs with concrete set of indicators
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Green Climate Fund: Initial results management framework for adaptation
Source: See detailed indicators in the GCF decision B.08/07, Annex VIII, Table 1Schalatek L. Moving Beyond “Business as Usual”. Heinrich Boell Foundation, 2015.
LEVEL EXPECTED RESULTSParadigm shift Increased climate resilient sustainable development
Fund level impacts
• Increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable people, communities, and regions
• Increased resilience of health and wellbeing, and food and water security
• Increased resilience of infrastructure and the built environment to climate change threats
• Improved resilience of ecosystems and ecosystem services
Project / programme outcomes
• Strengthened institutional and regulatory systems for climate responsive planning and development
• Increased generation and use of climate information in decision-making
• Strengthened adaptive capacity and reduced exposure to climate risks • Strengthened awareness of climate threats and risk reduction
processes
Core indicator: Total number of direct and indirect beneficiaries; number of beneficiaries relative to total population
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Tracking climate finance spending: Performance-based climate resilient grants by LoCAL programme
Source: http://www.local-uncdf.org/performance-based-climate-resilient-grants.html
LoCAL promotes mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and resilience into local panning and budgeting systems with Performance-based climate-resilient grants (PBCRGs)
Grants consist of a financial top-up, covering additional costs of making investments climate resilient, complementing regular budget allocations
Grants are included in the municipal budget revenue (as a separate line) and expenses (if possible in one or separate lines)
Grants are disbursed in the context of local annual planning and budgeting cycles, and selected measures are implemented
Performance are appraised in terms of the degree to which additional resources have been used to build resilience and promote adaptation to climate change, and audits are undertaken as part of the regular national process
20Source: adapted from ODI, 2013
Monitoring and Tracking Adaptation Activities (II)
Approach Strength Challenges
Activity categorized as either
A) financing an adaptation-relevant sector or
B) supporting institutional capacity development.
• Focus on knowledge management and learning
• Quality of reporting limited to detail of project documents which form the only means of verification.
• Relies heavily on expert judgment.
PPCR results framework
21Source: adapted from ODI, 2013GIZ 2014. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Climate Finance
Monitoring and Tracking Adaptation Activities (III)
Approach Strength Challenges
Stage 1: Adaptation focus is categorized: UNFCCC provisions as 1. ‘principle objectives’, 2. ‘significant objectives’, or3. ‘not targeting the objectives.’Stage 2: Adaptation intervention is categorized into enabling activities and sectoral activities.
• Integrates adaptation tracking into DAC
• Community aid tracking processes
• To avoid double-counting, includes assessment of overlap between different objectives
• New separate unit to develop methodologies and measure private finance flows, incl. those mobilized by public intervention
• Only tracks activities that identify climate change in project documentation;
• Data gaps; • Reliant on self-reporting; • Simplistic in capturing the range and
scope of adaptation finance• Applied mainly to bilateral ODA• More precise eligibility criteria and
activity descriptions needed for clear understanding of what qualifies and should be quantified
• Further harmonization needed to make reported data comparable with the reporting under UNFCCC
OECD DAC Adaptation Marker
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Monitoring and Tracking Adaptation Activities (III)
Approach Strength Challenges
• National Communications as main financial information reporting document
• Common Tabular Format (CTF) for reporting on financial support, technology transfer and capacity-building
• Biennial Reports for developed countries
• Agreed single reporting format for developed countries that provides fairly detailed and comprehensive financial information
• Harmonized and coherent reporting practice needed in the longer run
• Joint understanding on terminology and reporting parameters is critical
• Climate-related private finance tracking and reporting needs to be enhanced
• MRV of climate finance under UNFCCC appears to be institutionally fragmented
UNFCCC level
Further guidelines for measuring and tracking climate finance to be developed Biennial assessment and overview of climate finance flows to be presented at COP20 in
Peru to give a “big picture” and include meta-information
Source: adapted from ODI, 2013GIZ 2014. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Climate Finance
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Key Questions
• What is experience with M&E frameworks in your country?
• What are key challenges to design M&E frameworks for adaptation projects in line with international requirements?
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Thank you for your attention!!!
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BACK UP
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Methods of adaptation M&E
Adaptation M&E seeks evidence that adaptation has taken or is taking place.
Common methods of adaptation M&E are:
• Employing indicators (quantitative or qualitative)
• Surveying stakeholders (e.g. the local population)
• Eliciting expert opinions
Qualitative evidence may consist of stories or narratives from community members.
Indicators may refer to one aspect, e.g. number of policies considering climate change,
or may be composite or index indicators that are summing up multiple inputs.
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Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of adaptation impacts – what do we want to measure?
without clim
ate change
with climate change
Time
Development
AdaptationVulnerability as a proxy
with enhanced adaptive capacity
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The vulnerability function (IPCC 2001)
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
to wheather and climate induced hazards such as drought, heavy rain falls etc.
of a system (e.g. eco-system, watershed, household, village, city, country) to wheather and climate induced hazards
potential or capability of a system to adjust to climate variability and extremes
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Baseline development
Develop impact chain from vulnerability functions for impact groups
Step1: Identify relevant exposure factors (weather and climate) for the
selected impacts.
Step 2: Identify natural, physical or land-management related factors which
make an area or a group of people sensitive towards an impact.
Step 3: Identify political, social, economic and cultural factors which contribute to a high or low adaptive capacity.
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Baseline development
Development of adaptation measures:Example: land degradation, erosion and landslides
Erratic but intensive precipitation events Deforestation
Unsuitable cultivation of steep slopes
Land degradation
Erosion and landslides
Knowledge of farmers on proper land management
Vulnerabilityof village farmers to land degradation, erosion &
landslides
Exposure Sensitivity
Impact
Adaptive Capacity
Afforestation with indegenous species
Plant suitable crops
High dependency on natural resources
Provide skills training to diversify farmer incomes
Awareness raising & training on land management
Adaptation Measures:
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Assessing and managing the risks of Climate Change (IPCC 2014)
IPCC, 2014 (p. 3): http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf
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Assessing and managing the risks of Climate Change (IPCC 2014)
Vulnerability
Hazard
Risk
Exposure
Example: Communities located at flood-prone river bank
Community settling at the river bank, living in shanty houses
Number of houses and people and the time they spent in the flood-prone area
Frequent floods
Loss of lives and assets of community due to floods
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Assessing and managing the risks of Climate Change (IPCC 2014)
Vulnerability
Hazard
Risk
Exposure
Potential adaptation measures:Communities located at flood-prone river bank Improve houses to
sustain floods, educate community members to recognise early signs of flooding
Relocate community from the river bank to another area
Build flood breaks or establish early-warning system
Measures result in reduction of probability of occurence and negative impacts
34Source: adapted from ODI, 2013
Monitoring and Tracking Adaptation Activities (I)
Approach Strength Challenges
Adaptation interventions and Adaptation processes are categorised
Sector themes help determine
• actors, • roles,• responsibilities,• methods,• technologies and • results.
Difficult to represent cross-sectoractivities;
relies heavily on expertjudgment
UNDP M&E Adaptation framework