Monitoring and Evaluation of the National Dog Population Management and Rabies Control Program in Bhutan
Karma Rinzin, PhD Candidate
Murdoch University, Perth, Australia/ National Centre for Animal Health, Department of Livestock, Bhutan
Outline Brief background
Bhutan and importance of dogs in Bhutanese society Past dog population control initiatives National Dog Population Management and Rabies
Control Project (NDPM & RCP)
Population dynamics and health status of free roaming dogs in Bhutan (PhD project)
M & E of the NDPM & RCP
Background BHUTAN
20 Dzongkhags 205 Geogs
Area= 40,000 sq km
6 agro ecological zones Altitude = 200 to 7500 metres
Population: ~700,000
`
Dogs in Bhutanese society Dogs are culturally and socially acceptable and
feeding of un-owned dogs is common Feeding dogs is believe to earn good Karma. In the cycle of rebirths dogs is closest to attaining
human birth. Dogs perform useful functions
Guard crops from wild animals & for herding the livestock in rural areas.
Dogs are kept as pets and companions as well as for guarding the premises in the urban areas.
Free-Roaming (FR) Dogs
Dogs found in public places irrespective of the level of care and supervision imposed upon them.
Many FR dogs in Bhutan due to poor responsible dog ownership, religious taboo, legal back-up, fund etc)
Problems caused by free-roaming dogs
Rabies a common problem in Bhutan
About 750 cases reported in domestic animal species in the last decade
Human rabies ~ US$ 70,000 annually
3 human cases in 2006 2 human cases in 2007 3 human cases in 2008 4 human cases in 2009 1 human case in 2010 5 human cases in 2011
Initiatives to control dog population and rabies
Recent Initiative National Dog Population
Management and Rabies Control Project (NDPM & RCP)
Implemented jointly by HSI and RGOB through Capture Neuter Vaccinate Release (CNVR) programme
Past Initiatives
Killing
Impounding
Translocation
Adhoc ABC & anti-rabies vaccination
Initiatives to control Dog population and Rabies
Poisoning and Shooting
NDPM & RCP Translocation
Mass Rabies Vaccination CABC
Failed due to non-
acceptable and religious
issues
Impounding
1970s -1980s 1990s 2000s 2009 2013 2014
Created animal
welfare and social issue
Poor animal welfare and
not sustainable
Scientifically approved
and socially acceptable
Taking owner
ship (staff
involvement)
Coordinated effort to reduce &
eliminated Rabies
Limited coverage/high incident of Zoonosis
High coverage/low incident of Zoonosis/Involvement of all stake holder
The joint CNVR programme implemented by RGOB and & HSI Pilot Project - Feb to June 2009 Phase 1 Sept 2009 to June 2012 Phase 2 July 2012 to June 2015 Sterilization & vaccination of male and
female dogs Released on the same day Ear notch used for identification
purposes
National Dog Population Management and Rabies Control Project
Capture Neuter Vaccinate and Release (CNVR) Programme
Other Initiative Legislation
Public Awareness
Achievement
Pilot project 2486 dogs Phase 1 36987 dogs Phase 2 (as of June 2014) 16470 dogs CNVR undertaken in all Districts
Human attitudes and
behaviour
Access to resources
Policies and Legislation
Resources Manpower,
fund
Free-roaming dog population Reproduction capacity of
population
CNVR programme
Assessing local dog population
Monitoring & Evaluation (M & E)
Size Source
Problems Welfare issues
KAP of communities Past control strategies
Monitor Size Coverage
Indicator count Health status
Trend - dog bite & rabies cases
Stabilize dog
population, eliminate rabies, address other problems & improve
welfare of dogs
Population dynamics and health status of the dog population in Bhutan
PhD Project
Literature Review
Goal - Revised Dog Population and Rabies Control Programme
Habitat studies
Estimate dog population
Dog Population demography
KAP Survey
M & E of CNVR program
Ethics Approval
Health status
92% heard of rabies 50% prevention by dog
vaccination
88% - stray dogs are a problem to society
77% - FR dogs threat to public health
Source: 51% within community
57% - fed stray dogs
60% owned dogs confined
Control options: ABC 72%, Impounding 7%
Euthanasia: Yes 21%,
No = 30% & Not sure 41%
KAP Survey:
521 households
Description of dog population The demographic characteristics of dogs presented to CNVR Programme (Based on 22,399 dogs presented to CNVR clinic from July 2011 to June 2013)
Demographics Owned dogs Stray dogs
Sex ratio (Males: Females) 1.4:1 1.06:1
Age 73.5% are adults 73.4% are adults
Neuter status 32.7% neutered 15.7% neutered
Presence pf health problems - Mange - TVT - Pyometra
2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 2.2%
6.9% 4.5% 1.2% 3.2%
Pregnancy status - Foetal counts
7.0% 4.4 1.5
6.2% 5.2 1.6
Neutered females and percentage of pregnant bitches
Description of dog population The demographic characteristics of the owned dog population in Bhutan (based on cross sectional survey of 1301 households)
Demographics Urban (716) Rural (585)
Proportion of HH with dogs 24.4% 40.8%
No. of dogs recorded 237 348
Dogs owned per dog owning HH 1.354 1.477
Dogs per HH 0.331 0.603
Human dog ratio 13.82 8.39
Sex ratio (Males: Females) 1.31:1 2.05:1
Age 78.5% are adults 85.3% are adults
Breed 54.4% Local 69.4% Local
Neuter status 39.7% neutered 64.3% neutered
Rabies vaccination 77.6% vaccinated 76.2% vaccinated
Purpose 60.6% Pet; 35.4% Guard
20.2% Pet, 72.7% Guard
Population estimate of owned and stray dogs
Owned dog population estimated by multiplying mean number of dogs owned by each household from the survey by the number of households.
Owned dog population in urban areas 0.331 43515 = 14403 dogs
Owned dog population in rural areas 0.603 84427 = 50909 dogs
Total dogs in Bhutan = 64,912 Owned dog human ratio = 1 : 10.12
Population estimate of owned and stray dogs
Stray dog population estimated by multiplying mean number of stray dogs per owned dogs. The mean number of stray dogs per owned dog is estimated by dividing the number of stray dogs by the owned dogs (based on number of stray and owned dogs presented to the CNVR clinic from July 2011 to June 2013).
Stray dog population in urban area 1.581 14403 = 22,771 dogs
Stray dog population in rural area 0.503 50909 = 25,607 dogs Total stray dogs in Bhutan = 48,378
Stray dog human ratio = 1 : 14.9 Overall dog human ration1 : 6.3
Density of owned and stray dogs
Density of owned dogs = 2.02 dogs per sq.km
Density of owned dogs = 1.46 dogs per sq.km
Thimphu with the area of 26 sq. km has a stray dog population of 5856 dogs in September 2014 ,
which gives a density of 225.6 dogs per sq.km.
(a) (b)
Habitat study: Map of Thimphu city (a) Image plot showing the free-roaming dog population density with the road networks superimposed on this plot (b) Image plot showing the intensity of buildings expressed as number of buildings per km2.
(a) (b)
Map of Thimphu city (a) Image plot showing the free-roaming dog population density. Superimposed on this plot are (a) point locations of rubbish bins (yellow) and Temples (White) and (b) Meat shops (Red) and Military camps (Blue)
(d) (f)
Rhohat plot showing the density of dog sight points as a function of Euclidean distance from (a) meat shops, (b) rubbish bins, (c) military camps, (d) temples (e) buildings and (f) road networks
(a) (b) (c)
(e)
Monitoring and evaluation
Monitor the population size CNVR coverage (population surveys) Health status of neutered and entire dogs Public attitudes and perceptions before and
after the interventions Trend in dog bites and rabies cases
Estimated number of surviving ear-notched dogs, the total free-roaming dog population and the percentage of ear-notched dogs out of all total sighted dogs in Thimphu (June 2009 September 2014)
Comparison of the population estimate of free-roaming dogs in Thimphu using different methods
Mark-resight survey Lincoln Petersen Index
Mark-resight survey Proportion of permanently marked dogs
Rapid survey and detection
probability
=
= 12
=
1 = Marked dogs 2 = number sighted during second count = number resighted
= No. of surviving ear notched dogs
= proportion of ear notched dogs
= No. of dogs sighted - rapid survey = proportion of
marked dogs
Population estimate of free-roaming dogs Population estimate of dog population in Thimphu city using Lincoln Petersen formula.
Thromdey Marked (n1) Count (n2) Recaptured (m) Population (95% CI)
Bapisa 267 323 202 426 (408 - 445)
Changbangdu 521 778 376 1078 (1037 - 1119)
Norzin 298 357 150 709 (649 - 769)
Changangkha 190 179 112 303 (281 - 325)
Motithang 155 190 134 219 (212 - 226)
Kawang Jungshina 353 537 283 669 (645 - 693) Taba-Dechenchoeling 244 257 153 409 (384 - 434)
Total 2028 2621 1410 3817 (3743 - 3891)
Population estimate of free-roaming dogs Monitoring of population trend in Thimphu city based on the population survey of the free-roaming dogs at frequent interval.
Survey (Month & Year)
Surviving notched
dogs
Notched dogs
sighted
Total dogs
sighted
Percent notche
d
Estimated Population
(95% CI)
June 2009 2399 903 1945 46.4 5167 (4836 - 5502)
June 2011 2191 1009 2778 36.3 6033 (5644 - 6430) January 2012 2950 828 1618 51.2 5765 (5438 - 6131)
May 2013 3200 1410 2621 53.8 5949 (5669 - 6273) August 2013 4474 1642 2151 76.3 5861 (5637 - 6094)
Sept. 2014 3691 903 1335 67.6 5856 (5573 - 6157)
Estimated number of surviving ear-notched dogs, the total free-roaming dog population and the percentage of ear-notched dogs out of all total sighted dogs in Thimphu (June 2009 September 2014)
Proportion of ear notched dogs in Thimphu from June 2009 to Sept 2014
Population estimate from the detection probability and rapid survey (August 2013)
Thimphu city divided into 15 wards (7 blue & 8 red)
MR survey in blue wards Detection probability 0.491 (95%
CI 0.460 0.520) Estimate pop in blue ward (MR is
1137 Estimated in red wards
(1635/0.491) = 3330 Total = 4467 (95% CI 4187 4798)
Which method to choose Method Estimate (95% CI) Remarks
Recapture of permanently marked dogs (May 2013)
5949 (5669 6273) Record of number of dogs sterilized, date and place received. Quick if we know the annual survival rates of ear notched dogs
Lincoln-Petersen Index (May 2013)
3817 (3743 -3891) Requires marking of dogs Chances of under estimating the population size as less active dogs are likely to be marked and resighted.
Recapture of permanently marked dogs (Aug 2013)
5861 (5637 6094) Apply this method if above details are available.
Detection probability and rapid survey (August 2013)
4467 (4187 4798) Need to do mark-resight survey. Apply this method if there are no above details or those places without CNVR programme
Comparison of the population estimate of free-roaming dogs in Thimphu using different methods
Mark-resight survey Lincoln Petersen Index
Mark-resight survey Proportion of permanently marked dogs
Rapid survey and detection
probability
=
= 12
=
1 = Marked dogs 2 = number sighted during second count = number resighted
= No. of surviving ear notched dogs
= proportion of ear notched dogs
= No. of dogs sighted - rapid survey = proportion of ear
notched dogs
Project monitoring: Percentage of free-roaming dogs vaccinated and neutered in the main towns of six selected districts as of 31st January 2012.
Project monitoring: Percentage of lactating females and puppies sighted in the main towns of the six selected districts as of 31st January 2012.
Comparing the health status of sterilized and sexually intact dogs
Proportion of neutered and entire dogs that are positive to CPV, CDV, in three body condition score categories and in three skin condition categories.
Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% CI from multivariate logistic regression models of factors associated with CPV, CDV and health status (body and skin condition) of dogs.
Comparison of dogs neutered (owned and stray) and humans (a) dog bites and (b) rabies outbreak in animals from July 2008 to June 2013.
(a) (b)
M & E NDPM & RCP (Immediate) Field population surveys
Google Maps and android phone apps / OSM Tracker app
Recording dog type as male notched, female notched, male un-notched, female un-notched, puppies, lactating females etc.
Will be undertaken in all urban areas which will be repeated every six months using the same tract.
Estimate the stray dog population
=
M & E NDPM & RCP (Immediate) Cross sectional household KAP survey
To determine the changes in knowledge, attitudes and behaviours of communities following the interventions
Owned dog survey Estimate the CNVR coverage To determine the proportion of
owned dogs that free-roaming To describe owned dog
demography
Acknowledgements
Slide Number 1OutlineBackground Slide Number 4Dogs in Bhutanese societyFree-Roaming (FR) Dogs Problems caused by free-roaming dogs Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Initiatives to control dog population and rabies Initiatives to control Dog population and Rabies National Dog Population Management and Rabies Control Project Slide Number 13Other Initiative Legislation Public Awareness AchievementSlide Number 17Population dynamics and health status of the dog population in BhutanSlide Number 19Description of dog population Neutered females and percentage of pregnant bitches Description of dog population Population estimate of owned and stray dogs Population estimate of owned and stray dogs Density of owned and stray dogs Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Monitoring and evaluation Estimated number of surviving ear-notched dogs, the total free-roaming dog population and the percentage of ear-notched dogs out of all total sighted dogs in Thimphu (June 2009 September 2014)Comparison of the population estimate of free-roaming dogs in Thimphu using different methods Population estimate of free-roaming dogs Population estimate of free-roaming dogs Estimated number of surviving ear-notched dogs, the total free-roaming dog population and the percentage of ear-notched dogs out of all total sighted dogs in Thimphu (June 2009 September 2014)Proportion of ear notched dogs in Thimphu from June 2009 to Sept 2014Population estimate from the detection probability and rapid survey (August 2013)Which method to chooseComparison of the population estimate of free-roaming dogs in Thimphu using different methods Project monitoring: Percentage of free-roaming dogs vaccinated and neutered in the main towns of six selected districts as of 31st January 2012. Project monitoring: Percentage of lactating females and puppies sighted in the main towns of the six selected districts as of 31st January 2012. Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Comparison of dogs neutered (owned and stray) and humans (a) dog bites and (b) rabies outbreak in animals from July 2008 to June 2013.M & E NDPM & RCP (Immediate)M & E NDPM & RCP (Immediate)Acknowledgements
