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23
1 HUGH GRANT CHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT, AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER GOLDMAN SACHS AGRICULTURAL BIOTECH FORUM Feb. 13, 2007
Transcript
Page 1: monsanto 02-13-07

1

HUGH GRANTCHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT, AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

GOLDMAN SACHS AGRICULTURAL BIOTECH FORUM

Feb. 13, 2007

Page 2: monsanto 02-13-07

2

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions, including Delta and Pine Land Company; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent periodic report to the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2007 Monsanto Company

Page 3: monsanto 02-13-07

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Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” and earnings per share (EPS) on an ongoing basis. We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as on-going EPS, excludes certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation. ROC means net income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, which can be found at the end of this presentation.

FISCAL YEAR:References to year, or to fiscal year, are on a fiscal year basis and refer to the 12-month period ending August 31.

Page 4: monsanto 02-13-07

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Monsanto’s Success Is Rooted in Seeds and Traits, Creating Platform for Future Growth

OVERVIEW

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F

SEEDS & GENOMICSCAGR 2003-2006: 32%

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

CAGR 2003-2006: (3)%

Higher margins in the seed-and-trait business focus Monsanto’s opportunity on accelerating gross profit growth

FOCUS: SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT

The EPS performance of the overall business reflects the growth trajectory of the seeds-and-traits business, Monsanto’s leadership in the industry, and the commercial potential of our proven R&D pipeline

FOCUS: ONGOING EPS PERFORMANCE

AN

NU

AL

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

($

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

$1.04

$0.80$0.72

$1.31

$1.50-$1.57

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F11% GROWTH 30% GROWTH 26% GROWTH

2007 ONGOING EPS GUIDANCE: 15-20% GROWTH

1

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5

Six Building Blocks Extend Leadership and Elevate Gross Margin Opportunity Through 2010

OVERVIEW

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

CURRENT LEVEL

GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

GROSS MARGIN OPPORTUNITYGROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES

HIGHR&D pipeline

MEDIUMSeminis

LOWCotton platform

MEDIUMGlobal biotech traits

MEDIUMInternational corn

HIGHU.S. corn

VALUE1FACTOR

Delta between 2006 gross margin and a 51-53% trajectory reflects continued growth opportunity for seeds and traits

MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITY

HIGH >$250M MEDIUM $100M - $250M LOW <$100M

1. Increment to total gross profit in the period 2006-2010; Some growth factors will overlap.

Page 6: monsanto 02-13-07

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OVERVIEW

“Rising Tide Lifts All Boats” Across Corn Industry, But Performance Will Still Determine Long-Term Winners

50

60

70

80

90

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

PLA

NT

ED

AC

RE

S (

IN M

ILLI

ON

S)

FOCUS: HISTORICAL U.S. PLANTED CORN ACRES

Average swing of corn acres over the last decade is roughly 1 percent; Last significant acre swing occurred in mid-1980s

2007 could represent the largest acreage swing in decades because of the new dynamic of ethanol on top of the established export demand

With yield focus, stacks – and triples especially – are the trait package of choice

TRAIT AVAILABILITY

Ultimate yield potential is reflected in the core seed

GERMPLASM PERFORMANCE

Additive

Essentially indifferent as both crops are highly penetrated with higher-priced stacked traits

Favors corn, but a trade-off because of high Roundup Ready penetration

WHEAT OR OTHER

COTTON

SOYBEANS

Farmers want to maximize productivity in high-return environment – creating opportunity for seed companies who deliver total performance Key Factors:

Growth from performance

Additional acres provide a “rising tide” that benefits most ag companiesDepending on source of incremental acre, there can be a trade-off in profit opportunity. For example, within Monsanto that trade-off is:

Growth from additional acres

GROWTH AVENUES IN A STRONG CORN MARKET

Page 7: monsanto 02-13-07

7

Pre-Planting Indicators Continue to Suggest Performance Sets Monsanto Seed and Traits Apart from the Pack in 2007

• A pre-planting view shows Monsanto’s seed and technology performance is translating to commercial opportunity

OUTLOOK:

U.S. Corn

• Farmers buy “yield” – a function of the genetic potential of seed and the percent of that potential protected by technology

• Across three commercial channels, Monsanto is uniquely positioned to deliver “yield” to farmers

SITUATION:

U.S. CORN GROWTH

EPS guidance raised to upper end of $1.50-$1.57 range at Q1 earnings report

Seeds & Genomics Gross Profit expected to increase to $2.8B from $2.4B in 2006, in part reflecting the strength of U.S. Corn

38% of farmers’ acres are planted to “home-run” hybrids, 54% are planted to “proven” hybrids=

Triple-stack traits are sold out in Asgrowand DEKALB brands

35% triple stacks in national brands30% triple stacks in ASI brands

62% of farmers prefer access to a full line of biotech traits over a favorite seed brand+

Asgrow and DEKALB brands expected to gain at the upper end of 1 - 2 share pointsASI companies expected to gain up to 0.5 share points through organic growth

Grow national brand market share 1-2 points

60% of farmers indicate germplasm selection is first priority

+

MAXIMUM YIELD POTENTIAL

TECHNOLOGY

SEEDFARMER’S DECISION EQUATION

2007 MONSANTO FORECASTSTATUS UPDATEINITIAL PROJECTIONS

Page 8: monsanto 02-13-07

8

2

U.S. Corn

• Gains in the 110-day market are most significant, both from a breeding perspective and a sales growth perspective

OUTLOOK:

• In 2006, yield data across all three channels and essentially across all maturity zones indicates a yield advantage over best-in-class competitors1

SITUATION:

U.S. CORN GROWTH

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

95 100 105 110 115

2006-TO-2007 CHANGE IN ORDERS BY MATURITY ZONE IN EACH CHANNEL

NATIONAL BRANDS

REGIONAL BRANDS

LICENSED BRANDS

BU

SH

ELS

PE

R A

CR

E

2006 TESTING: YIELD DIFFERENCE VERSUS COMPETITIVE CHECKS BY CHANNEL1

RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)

110

Decreased ordersFlat ordersIncreased orders

Breeding Strength Translates to Commercial Growth Opportunity

2. In the 100 day maturity zone, ASI’sbushels per acre are statistically indifferent when compared to best competitive checks

1. For purposes of this testing, the competitive checks excluded any Monsanto or Monsanto licensed germplasm

Page 9: monsanto 02-13-07

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With Higher Demand for Stacks, the “Average” DEKALB Acre Now Contains More Than Two Traits

• In 2007, the trait intensity for DEKALB and Asgrow will surpass 2.0 for the first time – reflecting that the average corn acre now contains more than 2 biotech traits

• With an infusion of technology, ASI’s trait penetration levels are closing in on DEKALB and Asgrow

OUTLOOK:

U.S. Corn

• With increased stacking, there is a positive mix effect across the portfolio

SITUATION:

20%

15%

7%

2006

TRIPLE STACKED PENETRATION

>35%

>30%

10 - 15%

2007F

STACKED PENETRATIONTRAIT PENETRATION

70 - 75%

65 - 70%

55 - 60%

2007F

69%

55%

43%

2006

90 - 95%

80 - 85%

60 - 65%

2007F

90%

75%

55%

2006

NATIONAL BRANDS

REGIONAL BRANDS

LICENSED BRANDS

U.S. CORN GROWTH

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F

TRAIT PENETRATION TRENDSACROSS KEY COMMERCIAL CHANNELS

TR

AIT

IN

TE

SIT

Y I

ND

EX

(A

VE

RA

GE

NU

MB

ER

OF

TR

AIT

S P

ER

T

RA

IT A

CR

E)

DEKALB/ASGROW2007F TRAIT INTENSITY: > 2.0

2007F TOTAL MARKET TRAIT INTENSITY LESS BRANDED: 1.7

Page 10: monsanto 02-13-07

10

Projected Demand From Ethanol in U.S. Provides Positive Pull for Monsanto Corn Technology

• Ethanol demand creates pull on corn that favors technologies that enhance yield, such as molecular breeding and biotech

• The average trait penetration is 2.5 X greater in areas of ethanol facilities

OUTLOOK:

U.S. Corn

• Assumption that by 2010, ethanol is MTBE replacement –representing 10% of U.S. fuel supply

• Ethanol demand could require equivalent of up to 25M U.S. acres by 2010

SITUATION:

U.S. ETHANOL AND CORN TRAITSCORRELATION OF ETHANOL SITES AND TRAIT PENETRATION

U.S. CORN GROWTH

ETHANOL PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ETHANOL PLANTS IN PRODUCTION

ETHANOL DRAW AREA

NON-DRAW AREA

Average trait penetration was 2.5 X greater in areas with a high concentration of

ethanol facilities compared with areas without or having low concentrations of

ethanol facilities

Page 11: monsanto 02-13-07

11

• Monsanto is targeting to grow share in each of the most valuable corn-growing countries

OUTLOOK:

International Corn

• Primary value in international corn markets today is in the seed

• Breeding gains that have been made in the U.S. set pace for market share growth in other international markets

SITUATION:

5.9M

7.0M

20.6M3.9M

6.0M

0.7M2.7M3.2M7.5M

HYBRID MARKET

SIZE (ACRES)

• India is primary market of longer-term value in region

LOW+635%15.6MIndia

ASIA-PACIFIC

LOWFLAT35%7.3MArgentina

LOW-134%30.8MBrazil

• Argentina is only country in region with biotech traits

• Next priority for accelerated molecular breeding

MEDIUM+361%17.3MMexico

LATIN AMERICA

LOW+1250%6.0MSouth Africa

HIGH+421%0.8MTurkey

MEDIUM+632%2.7MHungary

HIGH+721%3.2MItaly

• Molecular breeding application is roughly 2 years behind U.S.

• Corn Borer-Roundup Ready 2 stack approved in January in South Africa

HIGH+515%7.5MFrance

EUROPE-AFRICA

OUTLOOKGROSS PROFIT

VALUE PER ACRE1

SHARE POINT

CHANGE (’04-’06)

MONSANTO BRAND SHARE

TOTAL MARKET

SIZE (ACRES)

1. Average incremental value in gross profit opportunity for the seed value (excluding traits) of the addition of an acre in a Monsanto brand:

HIGH >$20 MEDIUM $10 - $20 LOW <$10

Gross Profit Value of Seed Internationally Varies, Yet Still Solid Contributor to Growth, Commercial Platform

INTERNATIONAL CORN GROWTH

Page 12: monsanto 02-13-07

12

• Very strong international corn seed performance over last two years is in Europe, where germplasm with U.S. can be readily exchanged

• With strong germplasm and breeding programs, other temperate markets are also on positive upswings

OUTLOOK:

International Corn

• Key to growth in international corn seed markets is leveraging the tools and knowledge developed for the U.S. in other markets

• Temperate germplasm can be moved across countries to improve breeding programs

SITUATION:

Breeding Capability Is Creating Business Opportunities in International Temperate Seed Markets

INTERNATIONAL CORN GROWTH

INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITY: TEMPERATE GERMPLASMDEKALB STATUS AND OPPORTUNITY

TEMPERATE

SUB-TROPICAL

TROPICAL

SUB-TROPICAL

TEMPERATE

• Largest temperate breeding program outside U.S., using international crosses and molecular breeding

• Two-year trends have shown share gains in key European markets

STATUS

27MTARGET HYBRID ACRES

EUROPE

• Established breeding program with strong genetics for local market

• In 2007 season, acres are increasing because of an overall market recovery, and DEKALB seed is poised to gain market share

STATUS

6MTARGET HYBRID ACRES

SOUTH AFRICA

• Breeders have historically brought in germplasm from other temperate regions, including U.S.

• Projected market share gains of 2-3 points in 2006-2007

STATUS

7.5MTARGET HYBRID ACRES

ARGENTINA

Page 13: monsanto 02-13-07

13

$0.00

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

$0.12

2007 2008F 2009F 2010

Roundup Ready Soybean Strategy in Brazil Emphasizes Acreage Penetration

GLOBAL BIOTECH TRAIT GROWTH

• In a total Brazilian market of ~50M acres, 2006 penetration was almost 20M acres –reflecting a remaining 30M-acre upside

• Penetration target of 45% for 2007 is on track

OUTLOOK:

Global Biotech Traits

• Largest soybean market outside U.S. is Brazil

• Recent pricing action taken there to promote penetration of new seed

SITUATION:

CO

NT

RIB

UT

ION

TO

EP

S($

PE

R S

HA

RE

)

ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS IN BRAZILPROJECTED EPS CONTRIBUTIONS (2007 VS 2010)

$0.09-$0.11

$0.025-$0.05

2007F 2010F

90% PENETRATION

50MMARKET SIZE

$2.50-$3.00/acrePRICING

ASSUMPTIONS

45%PENETRATION

50MMARKET SIZE

$2.50-$3.00/acrePRICING

ASSUMPTIONS

ON PENETRATION ALONE EPS CONTRIBUTION COULD MORE THAN DOUBLE 2007-2010

Page 14: monsanto 02-13-07

14

Upgrade to Second-Generation Cotton Traits Flourishes, Highlighted by 2007 Roundup Ready Flex Growth

COTTON GROWTH

PENETRATION RATE OF SECOND-GENERATION TRAITSPENETRATION TREND OF COTTON TRAITS AS

A PERCENT OF ANNUAL PLANTED ACRES1

1. Percent of annual planted acres reflects the ratio of number of actual trait acres planted to total planted acres in the identified year for the specified geography

Bollgard II

Roundup Ready Flex

Bollgard II

Roundup Ready Flex

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

2007 FORECAST

2006 RESULTS

Even on potentially lower total planted acres, Roundup Ready Flex penetration rate should double in 2007 to >25% of total cotton crop

ROUNDUP READY FLEX

• Transition to second-generation traits continues in 2007

• Roundup Ready Flex was planted on ~14% of planted acres in 2005 – that should double in 2007

OUTLOOK:

Cotton Platform

• Cotton trait platform is the first to move forward on complete replacement of first-generation traits with second-generation upgrades

• Roundup Ready Flex cotton launched in the U.S. in 2006; Launched in Australia for FY2007 planting

SITUATION:

25-30%

25-30%

17%

14%

Page 15: monsanto 02-13-07

15

Seminis To Leverage Portfolio, Pricing and Molecular Breeding To Create New Growth

SEMINIS GROWTH

• Seminis is targeted to contribute $0.10 - $0.125 to EPS in FY2007 now that inventory step-up charge is complete

OUTLOOK:

Seminis

• In 2006, narrowed commercial and research focus to 25 crops that generate the most profit

• Began application of breeding technology, with a target of 1,000+ markers each for 9 crops by 2009

SITUATION:

Focus on 25 most-profitable key crops

VA

LUE

CR

EA

TIO

N O

PP

OR

TU

NIT

Y

Assemble genetic maps for key crops

Identify and implement opportunities to price products to value

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Aggressively make hybrid conversions in strategic crops

Significant use of molecular markers

Monsanto acquires Seminis

Seminis modestly accretive to FY2006 EPS

Seminis accretive to FY2007 EPS in range of $0.10-$0.125

Commercialize first hybrids developed by molecular breeding

OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE

SEMINIS VALUE CREATIONSTAGED OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING BUSINESS VALUE

NEW VALUE CREATIONPIPELINE

ADVANCEMENT

Page 16: monsanto 02-13-07

16

Development of Fungal-Resistant Peppers For North America Provides New Pricing Opportunity for Seminis

SEMINIS GROWTH

Seminis

PROJECT CONCEPT:

Fungal disease pressure affects almost 60 percent of North American pepper acres, diminishing yield and increasing input expenses for growers. Using molecular markers, Seminis is creating hybrid peppers that exhibit fungal resistance.

2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

Fungal-Resistant Peppers

• Seminis is mapping molecular markers for 9 key crops, which is helping better locate genetic sites for factors like fungal resistant and disease, allowing breeders to apply that information to upgrade product offerings faster

• Ultimately fungal-resistance could be combined with other or additional disease-resistance characteristics for commercial launch

0%PERCENT PENETRATED

200KAVAILABLE MARKET

NORTH AMERICAKEY MARKET ACRES

Fungal-Resistant Peppers

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

CONVENTIONALPEPPERS

FUNGAL-RESISTANTPEPPERS

IND

EX

ED

RE

TA

IL S

EE

D

VA

LUE

PE

R A

CR

E

VALUE OPPORTUNITY: FUNGAL RESISTANCE EXAMPLE: NORTH AMERICAN PEPPERS

49%

Fungal disease affects 60% of the 200K+ acres of peppers grown in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, requiring intensive chemical spraying for controlUsing molecular-breeding tools, Seminis scientists are working on developing hybrid peppers that are resistant to fungal diseaseThe enhanced value of fungal resistance is projected to increasethe per-acre retail price by almost half

Page 17: monsanto 02-13-07

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Pipeline Demonstrates Increased Breadth and Depth; Key Projects on Track for Commercial Launch

PIPELINE UPDATE

ROUNDUP READY FLEX COTTON

HYBRIDIZATION SYSTEM FOR CORN

DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN

FARMER BENEFITS

HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEANS

NITROGEN UTILIZATION CORN

HIGHER-YIELDING CORN

DROUGHT-TOLERANT COTTON

WATER-USE EFFICIENCY SOYBEANS

HIGHER-YIELDING CANOLA

2ND-GEN DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN

COTTON LYGUS CONTROL

BOLLGARD III

SOYBEAN NEMATODE-RESISTANCE

YIELDGARD ROOTWORM II

INSECT-PROTECTED SOYBEANS

YIELDGARD VT PRO2ND-GEN YIELDGARD CORN BORER

YIELDGARD VT ROOTWORM/RR22ND-GEN YIELDGARD ROOTWORM

DICAMBA-TOLERANT COTTON

DICAMBA-TOLERANT SOYBEANS

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD CANOLA

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD SOYBEANS

PHASE

4PHASE

3PHASE

2PHASE

1D

PROCESSOR BENEFITS

OMEGA-3 SOYBEANS

VISTIVE III SOYBEANS

VISTIVE II SOYBEANS

IMPROVED-PROTEIN SOYBEANS

CONSUMER BENEFITS

HIGH OIL SOYBEANS FOR PROCESSING1

FEED CORN WITH BALANCED PROTEINS1

2nd-GEN HIGH-VALUE CORN WITH LYSINE1

MAVERA™ II HIGH-VALUE SOYBEANS1

MAVERA™ I HIGH-VALUE SOYBEANS1

MAVERA™ HIGH-VALUE CORN WITH LYSINE1

PHASE

4PHASE

3PHASE

2PHASE

1D

1. These product candidates are in the Renessen pipeline. Renessen is a Monsanto/Cargill joint venture.

2. The colored bar associated with each project indicates which phase that project is in. It is not intended to represent the relative status of the project within a particular stage.

3. Roundup Ready Flex Cotton advanced from Phase 4 to commercialization in 2006.

R&D PIPELINE: JANUARY 2007

High Impact Technologies (HIT) project

Jan. 4, 2007 Advancements/AdditionsJan. 4, 2006 Advancements/Additions

Page 18: monsanto 02-13-07

18

0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

35M

ARGENTINA

60M70MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Advance to Phase 4, Beginning Pre-Launch Activities

Roundup RReady2YieldSoybeans

PIPELINE UPDATE

P R O J E C T

R&D Pipeline

PROJECT CONCEPT:

Second-generation of Monsanto’s popular herbicide-tolerant platform in soybeans that will provide farmers with soybeans that have enhanced yield, with a target of up to 5 bushel-per-acre yield increase over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans

2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreTOTAL RETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 4

• Performance indicates that the enhanced yields associated with Roundup RReady2Yield are consistent across multiple years and diverse germplasm backgrounds

KE

Y R

ES

ULT

S

2006 TESTING: RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF ROUNDUP READY AND ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD EXPERIMENTAL LINES

2006 breeding trials compared Roundup RReady2Yieldexperimental lines with Roundup Ready experimental lines that were in the same stage of development. The Roundup RReady2Yield lines averaged 3 to 5 bushels per acre higher than Roundup Ready experimental lines – shifting the entire yield curve positively and providing further validation for the product concept target of up to a 5 bushel-per-acre yield increase

YIELD DIFFERENCE (BU/AC)

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

ROUNDUP READYEXPERIMENTAL

LINES

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELDEXPERIMENTAL LINES

PE

RC

EN

T O

F P

OP

ULA

TIO

N

50

40

30

20

10

Page 19: monsanto 02-13-07

19

0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

6M

ARGENTINA

30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

Multi-Generational Drought-Tolerant Corn Creates Value Across Multiple Market Segments

Drought-Tolerant Corn

PIPELINE UPDATE

P R O J E C T

R&D Pipeline

PROJECT CONCEPT:

First-generation drought tolerance is targeted to minimize uncertainty in farming by buffering against the effects of water limitation, primarily in areas of annual water stress

2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreTOTAL RETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Drought-Tolerant Corn

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 2

• Yield enhancement demonstrated again in 2006 under water-stress conditions in U.S.

• Lead gene chosen • 2007 trials expected to demonstrate

yield enhancement in multiple hybrids under dryland conditions

SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE

STABILITYWESTERN DRYLANDIRRIGATED

Value is in improved yields when moisture is less than optimal

Value is in improved yields annually, by improving water-use efficiency

Value is in replacing irrigation, reducing the variable costs of irrigation

Non-irrigatedNon-irrigatedIrrigated

17-19” typical precipitation in growing season

14-18” typical precipitation in growing season

14-18” typical precipitation in growing season

50-60M acres10-12M acres8-12M acres

High annual precipitation

Low annual precipitation

Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University

Page 20: monsanto 02-13-07

20

0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

6M

ARGENTINA

30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

First of Drought-Tolerant Corn Traits Continues To Deliver Yield Boost in Third-Year Testing

Drought-Tolerant Corn

PIPELINE UPDATE

KE

Y R

ES

ULT

S

In third year field testing in U.S., drought-tolerant leads are consistently delivering higher yields compared with controls under drought-stressed conditionsFirst leads show primary benefit under water-stress conditions

P R O J E C T

R&D Pipeline

PROJECT CONCEPT:

First-generation drought tolerance is targeted to minimize uncertainty in farming by buffering against the effects of water limitation, primarily in areas of annual water stress

2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreTOTAL RETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Drought-Tolerant Corn

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 2

• Yield enhancement demonstrated again in 2006 under water-stress conditions in U.S.

• Lead gene chosen • 2007 trials expected to demonstrate

yield enhancement in multiple hybrids under dryland conditions

Hybrid 1: 2004, 4 locations; 2005 5 locs; 2006, 1 loc (20 reps)Hybrid 2: 2004, not tested; 2005, 5 locs, 2006, 3 locs

2004 2005 20060

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

YIE

LD D

IFFE

RE

NC

E

VS

. CO

NT

RO

L (B

U/A

CR

E)

NO

T T

ES

TE

D

Percent yield difference vs. control

7.3% 10.5% 10.9% 23.2% 9.0%

2006 TESTING: YIELD IMPROVEMENT OF LEAD EVENT UNDER DROUGHT STRESS

Page 21: monsanto 02-13-07

21

Monsanto’s Pipeline Is Funded for Growth, but Focused on Return on Investment

PIPELINE

R&D Pipeline

• In FY2006, three projects were designated as “HIT” projects reflecting our confidence in their commercial track

SITUATION:

PIPELINE VALUE: TOP-TEN PROJECTSREFLECTING COMMERCIAL VALUE1

1. Top ten not presented in ranked order; Commercial value calculated by penetration and retail value during three-year span at peak.

2. Value and acres are for direct feed piece only and do not include value for Renessen’s corn processing system, which is still to be determined

U.S.5M>$30Improved health3Omega 3 soybeansU.S.

Brazil Europe

41M$10 - $30Insect protection4YieldGard VT PRO

2nd-GEN YIELDGARD CORN BORER

U.SBrazil

Europe20M$10 - $30Feed and fuel4

Renessen Corn Processing System and Mavera™ High-

Value Corn with Lysine2

U.S.Brazil

Argentina155M$10 - $30Yield

enhancement2Higher yielding soybeans

CORE MARKETS

MARKEY OPPORTUNITY

VALUE PER ACRE

SOURCE OF VALUEPHASE

U.SBrazil

Europe164M$10 - $30

Nitrogen replacement

and yield1Nitrogen utilization corn

U.S.12-15M$10 - $30Improved health2Vistive III soybeans

U.SBrazil

Europe164M$10 - $30

Water replacement

and yield2Drought-tolerant corn

U.S.IndiaBrazil

Australia36M$10 - $30

Water replacement

and yield1Drought-tolerant cotton

Insect-protected soybeans WITH ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD

Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans

BrazilArgentina95M<$10Yield2

U.S.Brazil

Argentina155M$10 - $30Yield

enhancement4HIT

HIT

HIT

Page 22: monsanto 02-13-07

22

All Six Growth Drivers Are On Track in 2007, Setting Stage for Continued Growth Through End of Decade

SUMMARY

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

CURRENT LEVEL

GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F• Emphasis on “HIT” projectsR&D pipeline

• Achieve 10-12.5 cents EPS contributionSeminis

• Complete Delta and Pine Land acquisition

• Continue penetration of second-generation stacked traits in U.S.

Cotton platform

• Achieve 2.5-5 cents EPS for Roundup Ready soybeans in Brazil

Global biotech traits

• Grow market share in key international market

International corn

• Drive trait penetration, especially triple-stacks

• Seed market share growth in U.S. national and ASI brands

U.S. corn

FY2007 PRIORITIESFACTOR

MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITY

FOCUS: GROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES

Page 23: monsanto 02-13-07

23

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

$0.48------PCB Litigation Settlement Expense – Net

--$0.12----Impairment of Goodwill

$1.04

$(0.02)

$0.01

$(0.19)

$0.32

$0.45

--

$0.47

--

$0.47

Fiscal Year 2005

$0.80

--

$0.18

--

--

--

--

$0.50

--

$0.50

Fiscal Year 2004

$0.72

$0.04

$0.05

--

--

--

--

$0.15

$0.02

$0.13

Fiscal Year 2003

$0.04Tax Charge on Repatriated Earnings

$0.01Cumulative Effect of Change in Accounting Principle

$1.25Net Income (Loss) per Share

$0.01Loss (Income) on Discontinued Operations

--Tax Benefit on Loss from European Wheat andBarley Business

--Solutia-Related Charge

--Seminis and Stoneville In-Process R&D

$1.31Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share from Ongoing Business

--Restructuring Charges -- Net

$1.26Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share Before Effect of Accounting Change

Fiscal Year 2006$ per share

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP EPS

Note: EPS figures reflect the stock split effective July 28, 2006


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