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Monte-Carlo method for Two-Stage SLP
Lecture 5
Leonidas SakalauskasInstitute of Mathematics and InformaticsVilnius, Lithuania EURO Working Group on Continuous Optimization
Content Introduction Monte Carlo estimators Stochastic Differentiation -feasible gradient approach for two-stage SLP Interior-point method for two stage SLP Testing optimality Convergence analysis Counterexample
Two-stage stochastic optimization problem
min],|[min)( m
y RyhxTyWyqExcxF
,, nxbAx
assume vectors q, h and matrices W, T random in general, and, consequently, depending on an elementary event.
subject to the feasible set
nRxbxAxD ,
where
Two-stage stochastic optimization problem with complete recourse will be
( ) ( , ) minnx D
F x c x E Q x
],|[min),( my RyhxTyWyqxQ
It can be derived, that under the assumption on the existence of a solution to the second stage problem in and continuity of measure P, the objective function is smoothly differentiable and its gradient is expressed as ),()( xEgxFx
where
is given by the set of solutions of the dual problem
*),( uTcxg
],0|)[(max)( * sTTu
T RuqWuuxThuxTh
Monte-Carlo samples
We assume here that the Monte-Carlo samples of a certain size N are provided for any
),,...,,( 21 NyyyY and the sampling estimator of the objective function can be computed :
Aad sampling variance can be computed also which is useful to evaluate the accuracy of estimator
1
1( ) ( , )
Nj
j
F x f x yN
22
1
1( ) ( , ) ( )
1
Nj
j
D x f x y F xN
nRx
The gradient is evaluated using the same random sample:
1
1( ) ( , ),
Nj
j
g x g x yN
nRDx
Gradient
Covariance matrix
1
1( ) , ,
N Tj j
j
A x g x y g x g x y g xN n
We use the sampling covariance matrix
later on for normalising of the gradient estimator.
Approaches of stochastic gradient
We examine several estimators for stochastic gradient: Analytical approach (AA); Finite difference approach (FD); Simulated perturbation stochastic
approach (SPSA); Likelihood ratio approach (LR).
Analytical approach (AA)Gradient is expressed as
where
is given by the a set of solutions of the dual problem
( ) ,ixF x E g x
1 *,g x c T u
],0|)[(max)( * mTTu
T uqWuuxThuxTh
Gradient search procedure
Let some initial point be given.
The random sample of a certain initial size N0 be generated at this point, and Monte-Carlo estimates be computed.
The iterative stochastic procedure of gradient search could be used further:
x D R n0
)(~1 ttt xgxx
– feasible direction approach
Let us define the set of feasible directions as follows:
1( ) 0, 0, 0ni n j jV x g Ag g if x
Gradient projection
Denote, as projection of vector g onto the set U.
Since the objective function is differentiable, the solution
is optimal if
x D
0V
F x
Ug
Assume a certain multiplier to be given. Define the function by
0 )(: xVx
Thus , when
for any
x g D ( ),x g
0,1
ˆ( ) min , min( )j
jx
g jj n
xg
g
01 jnj g
,g V x x D
Now, let a certain small value be given. 0 Then we introduce the function
, ,
, if
and define the ε - feasible set
: ( )x V x jj
gnj
x gxgj
ˆ,minmaxˆ)(0
1 01 jnj g
0)( gx )0(1 jnj g
1( ) 0, 0, 0 ( )ni n j j xV x g Ag g if x g
The starting point can be obtained as the solution of the deterministic linear problem:
The iterative stochastic procedure of gradient search could be used further:
where is the step-length multiplier and
is the projection of gradient estimator to the ε -feasible set.
0 0
,( , ) arg min[ | , , , ].m n
x yx y c x q y A x b W y T x h y R x R
1 ( )t t t tx x G x
( )t ttxG
( )t ttV x
G G x
Monte-Carlo sample size problem
There is no a great necessity to compute estimators with a high accuracy on starting the optimisation, because then it suffices only to approximately evaluate the direction leading to the optimum.
Therefore, one can obtain not so large samples at the beginning of the optimum search and, later on, increase the size of samples so as to get the estimate of the objective function with a desired accuracy just at the time of decision making on finding the solution to the optimisation problem.
We propose a following version for regulating the sample size in practice:
maxmin1
1 ,,)(
~())(()(
~(
),,(maxmin NNn
xGxAxG
nNnFishnN
ttTt
tt
Statistical testing of the optimality hypothesis
The optimality hypothesis could be accepted for some point xt with significance , if the following condition is satisfied
12 ( ) ( ( )) ( ( )) ( ( ))
( , , )t t T t t
tt
N n G x A x G xT Fish n N n
n
Next, we can use the asymptotic normality again and decide that the objective function is estimated with a permissible accuracy , if its confidence bound does not exceed this value:
tt NxD /)(~
1
Computer simulation
Two-stage stochastic linear optimisation problem.
Dimensions of the task are as follows: the first stage has 10 rows and 20 variables; the second stage has 20 rows and 30 variables.
http://www.math.bme.hu/~deak/twostage/ l1/20x20.1/
(2006-01-20).
Dwo stage stochasticprograming
The estimate of the optimal value of the objective function given in the database is 182.94234 0.066
N0=Nmin=100 Nmax=10000. Maximal number of iterations ,
generation of trials was broken when the estimated confidence interval of the objective function exceeds admissible value .
Initial data were as follows:
= =0.95; 0.99, 0.1; 0.2; 0.5; 1.0.
max 100t
Frequency of stopping under admissible interval
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
1
0,5
0,2
0,1
Change of the objective function under admissible interval
182
182,5
183
183,5
184
184,5
1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100
0,1
0,2
0,5
1
Change of confidence interval under admissible interval
01
2345
67
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99
0,1
0,2
0,5
1
Change of the Monte-Carlo sample size under admissible interval
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
0,1
0,2
0,5
1
Change of the Hotelling statistics under admissible interval
012345
6789
10
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
0,1
0,2
0,5
1
Histogram of ratio under admissible interval 1
jt
tj
N
N
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
0,1
0,2
0,5
1
Wrap-Up and Conclisions The stochastic adaptive method has been
developed to solve stochastic linear problems by a finite sequence of Monte-Carlo sampling estimators
The method is grounded by adaptive regulation of the size of Monte-Carlo samples and the statistical termination procedure, taking into consideration the statistical modeling accuracy
The proposed adjustment of sample size, when it is taken inversely proportional to the square of the norm of the Monte-Carlo estimate of the gradient, guarantees the convergence a. s. at a linear rate