Monthly Newsletter 1 Altana Corporate Bond Fund UCITS Share Class/ Bloomberg ID $ / ALTCBOU ID £ / ALTCBCG ID € / ALTCBAE ID Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer: Lee Robinson October 2019 -0.30% -0.39% -0.51% YTD 6.52% 5.11% 4.05% Joint – Portfolio Manager: Philip Crate NAV (since inception): $ 104.40 Fund AUM: $ 59,298,394 Key Points The Altana Corporate Bond Fund (“ACBF”) USD-institutional share class generated a negative total net return (after fees) of -30bps in October (corresponding GBP and €-institutional share class returns of -39bps and -51bps, respectively). ACBF performed broadly in line with European IG and HY credit indices (-20bps and -10bps, respectively) in October. However, ACBF underperformed the broader HF Credit Index (total return +83bps) and the Barclays Global Aggregate IG Index (total return +27bps) in October due to negative return contributions from some of our event trades (HEMA, Codere and Valaris). The remainder of the portfolio performed well but not sufficient to completely offset the negative impact of these events. ACBF’s YTD performance stellar: USD-institutional share class net return of +6.52% (equivalent GBP and €- share class returns of +5.11% and +4.05%, respectively). This compares favourably with the YTD total return for the HF Credit Index (+4.45%) and versus the YTD excess return for the Barclays Global Aggregate IG index (somewhere between 2% and 6% depending on currency). Excellent risk adjusted return performance: Sharpe ratio of 2.6 on a one-year look back basis. ACBF continues to be managed on a conservative basis: volatility of 1.77% versus 2.21% for the HF Credit Index and 2.63% for the Barclay’s Global Aggregate IG Index. As of end of October 2019 Annualised returns Volatility Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio ACBF Strategy 1M 3M YTD 1Y ITD* 1Y ITD* 1Y ITD* 1Y $ class -0.30% 0.51% 6.52% 4.59% 4.93% 1.77% 1.54% 2.59 2.64 4.47 HF Credit Index ($) 0.83% 1.32% 4.45% 2.36% 2.66% 2.21% 2.08% 1.07 1.28 1.59 Barclays Global IG ($) 0.27% -0.24% 11.51% 12.72% 5.48% 2.63% 2.56% 4.84 2.14 8.81 * Inception to date numbers are from January 2016 for comparative purposes. Altana Corporate Bond Fund (UCITS) Track Record and Statistics (USD data) Return Since January 2016 21.04% Average Monthly Return 0.42% Consecutive Pos./Neg. Months 6 Max. Winning Streak 2.69% Max. Drawdown -2.40% Annualised SD * 1.57% Sharpe Ratio * 2.64 Fund Size $59.30m Current Weighted Average Yield 5.5% Main Performance Contributors Top Performers Bps Worst Performers Bps 1 ISATLN 3.875 09/09/23 ISAT +14 1 HEMABV 0 07/15/22 REGS -23 2 HATAFI 5.25 11/15/22 REGS +12 2 RDC 4.875 06/01/22 -16 3 RBS 6.425 PERP +7 3 CDRSM 7.625 11/01/21 144A -12 4 BURLN 6.5 08/19/22 +6 4 YELLUK 8.5 05/02/23 REGS -8 5 EGBLFN 6.25 10/30/25 REGS +5 5 BTU 6 03/31/22 144A -8 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.24 Altana Corporate Bonds Fund UCITS HF Credit Index BARCLAYS Global Investment Grade Index October 2019
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Monthly Newsletter
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Altana Corporate Bond Fund UCITS
Share Class/ Bloomberg ID $ / ALTCBOU ID £ / ALTCBCG ID € / ALTCBAE ID Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer:
Lee Robinson
October 2019 -0.30% -0.39% -0.51%
YTD 6.52% 5.11% 4.05% Joint – Portfolio Manager: Philip Crate
NAV (since inception): $ 104.40 Fund AUM: $ 59,298,394
Key Points
The Altana Corporate Bond Fund (“ACBF”) USD-institutional share class generated a negative total net return
(after fees) of -30bps in October (corresponding GBP and €-institutional share class returns of -39bps and -51bps,
respectively).
ACBF performed broadly in line with European IG and HY credit indices (-20bps and -10bps, respectively) in
October.
However, ACBF underperformed the broader HF Credit Index (total return +83bps) and the Barclays Global
Aggregate IG Index (total return +27bps) in October due to negative return contributions from some of our event
trades (HEMA, Codere and Valaris). The remainder of the portfolio performed well but not sufficient to completely
offset the negative impact of these events.
ACBF’s YTD performance stellar: USD-institutional share class net return of +6.52% (equivalent GBP and €-
share class returns of +5.11% and +4.05%, respectively). This compares favourably with the YTD total return for
the HF Credit Index (+4.45%) and versus the YTD excess return for the Barclays Global Aggregate IG index
(somewhere between 2% and 6% depending on currency).
Excellent risk adjusted return performance: Sharpe ratio of 2.6 on a one-year look back basis.
ACBF continues to be managed on a conservative basis: volatility of 1.77% versus 2.21% for the HF Credit Index
and 2.63% for the Barclay’s Global Aggregate IG Index.
As of end of
October 2019 Annualised returns Volatility Sharpe Ratio
Barclays Global IG ($) 0.27% -0.24% 11.51% 12.72% 5.48% 2.63% 2.56% 4.84 2.14 8.81 * Inception to date numbers are from January 2016 for comparative purposes.
Altana Corporate Bond Fund (UCITS) Track Record and Statistics (USD data)
Return Since January 2016 21.04%
Average Monthly Return 0.42%
Consecutive Pos./Neg. Months 6
Max. Winning Streak 2.69%
Max. Drawdown -2.40%
Annualised SD * 1.57%
Sharpe Ratio * 2.64
Fund Size $59.30m
Current Weighted Average Yield 5.5%
Main Performance Contributors Top Performers Bps Worst Performers Bps
Altana Corporate Bonds Fund UCITS HF Credit Index BARCLAYS Global Investment Grade Index
October 2019
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Fund Strategy
The objective of the Altana Corporate Bond Fund (ACBF) is to generate a positive return in all market phases by investing in a diversified portfolio of corporate bonds globally. The fund sources attractive bond investment opportunities in all major markets, seeks corporations that have an extremely high degree of repayment as well as strong defendable business models. Risks on macroeconomic, geopolitical, sector and issuer levels are limited by following a structured allocation strategy. ACBF takes global exposure either via cash bond positions or derivatives, depending on relative valuations and market opportunities.
€ / ALTCBAE ID. Monthly performance (%). Net of all legal, admin, trading and management fees.
YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD ITD
Note: The UCITS fund was launched in May 2014. From January 2016, Lee Robinson and Philip Crate took over the management of the fund. For full historical data prior to this, please contact: [email protected].
Portfolio Activity & Outlook Performance Review To begin we apologise for the slight delay in the preparation of this month’s newsletter; this was due to time spent
on dealing with a packed quarterly reporting season and a busy new issue calendar in November. Normal service
will resume in December.
Performance for October was somewhat disappointing for the Altana Corporate Bond Fund (“ACBF”) with the fund
reporting a negative total return (after fees) of -30bps (GBP and € share class corresponding negative total returns
-39bps and -51bps respectively). Unfortunately, while most of the portfolio performed well during a negative total
return month for credit a few of the event trades we have on didn’t and this negatively impacted the fund’s overall
performance (more on this to follow). Consequently, while the month’s drawdown was fairly well contained, we still
underperformed both the HF Credit Index (+83bps) and the Barclay’s Global Aggregate IG Index (+27bps) in
October. Having said this ACBF still performed broadly in line with European credit last month which saw
negative returns across investment and sub-investment grade credit (see Figure 1, below).
Obviously we are disappointed with last month’s performance but we remain confident that our strategy will reward
our investors over the long term as our track record over the past few years has demonstrated. Indeed, ACBF’s
YTD performance (+6.52%, +5.11% and +4.05%, for the USD, GBP and € share class, respectively) is still superior
to the HF Credit Index (YTD total return 4.45% YTD on a total return basis). Moreover, while the headline total
return for the Barclays Global Aggregate IG Index seems impressive at 11.5% it has to be remembered that this
number also includes the return of the underlying benchmark sovereign bond. Excluding this duration “kicker” the
true credit return (“excess return” over the underlying sovereign bond) for the Barclay’s index lies somewhere
between 6.2% for USD credit and c.2% for its European counterpart (see Figure 1, below).
Figure 1: Cross Currency Performance Analysis for Credit – October and YTD Analysis
Note: Excess returns approximated by subtracting a similar duration government bond index return from the credit index return. Source: Deutsche Bank, Markit Group
Risk appetite returned to markets once again in October as expectations that the US and China were edging
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towards agreeing on “phase one” of their trade deal, earnings season broadly bettering expectations, the Fed
announcing that it would resume securities purchases to grow its balance sheet and even the latest twist in Brexit
developments all combining to help to boost sentiment. When it was all said and done, out of the 38 assets in our
sample, excluding currencies, 28 produced positive total returns in local currency terms and 37 did so in dollar
terms, following relatively big moves for the euro (+2.3%) and sterling (+5.3%) in particular.
Indeed, that move for sterling weighed on UK assets with the FTSE 100 (-1.9%) and Gilts (-1.9%) the two biggest
decliners last month. The other was Bunds (-1.4%), where 10y yields edged back to the highest since July at one
stage, while Treasuries (0.0%), Spanish Bonds (-0.7%) and BTPs (-0.7%) were flat to slightly negative. The
standout was EM bonds (+2.2%), which had their strongest month since January.
As for equities, leading gains last month was Russia’s MICEX (+6.2%) while the Nikkei (+5.4%), EM equities
(+4.2%) and the NASDAQ (+3.7%) also rallied. The S&P 500 (+2.2%) also climbed for a second month, which
means the index has risen in 8 of the 10 months in 2019 so far. Meanwhile, the move for the euro acted as a bit of
a headwind for European equities with the STOXX 600 returning +1.1% in local currency terms, however converted
to dollars saw it return +3.4% and thus outperform the S&P 500. Elsewhere, European Banks returned +2.2% in
local currency terms and +4.6% in dollars. The biggest underperformer in Europe outside of the FTSE 100 was the
IBEX (+0.7% in local and +3.1% in dollars).
In terms of credit markets, while spreads tightened slightly in October the impact of higher government bond yields
hurt total returns in Europe. Indeed, EUR IG Non- Fin (-0.2%) ended with a small negative return while EUR HY
returned -0.1%. US HY did, however, post a small positive return of +0.4% while IG Non-Fin returned +0.5%. For
completeness, returns for commodity markets last month were by and large positive, including moves higher for
Figure 2: Total Return Performance of Major Global Financial Assets in October (in local currency)
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Mark-It
Performance Contribution October was a frustrating month for the portfolio with a few relatively large negative contributors pulling the fund
into negative return territory. These disappointments to one side, the vast majority of the portfolio performed well in
a broadly negative month for credit outside the US.
The standout contributor in October was ISATLN 3.875% September 2023 with a contribution of +12bp
(“Inmarsat”) Inmarsat bonds reacted favourably to news that the UK government cleared the acquisition of the
company by private equity after it accepted undertakings given by the acquirer relating to national security. The UK
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government said the undertakings provided assurance that sensitive information was protected and that enhanced
security controls were in place to ensure the continued supply of key services used by the UK Ministry of Defence.
Therefore the acquisition will not be referred to the CMA for a phase 2 inquiry. All regulatory approvals for the PE
bid have now been received – the Foreign Investment Review Board in Australia was the last one. We expect the
transaction to be cleared by the UK courts towards the end of November despite last minute objections raised by
some activist hedge funds seeking an improvement in the bid price from the consortium. If all goes to plan
Inmarsat’s shares will be delisted at the end of November (court hearing on 28/29 November) and the company’s
2023 convertible bond will be redeemed at a price of c.152.5 (current bond price 146) shortly thereafter.
The current price for the convertible bond is trading below its estimated take out price because there is a remote
risk that the Inmarsat board will be forced to withdraw its backing for the consortium’s bid if the US Federal
Communications Commission (“FCC”) rules in favour of Ligado Networks. The FCC is currently reviewing a long-
pending request from Ligado Networks to use spectrum near the GPS frequencies to support terrestrial
communications – a positive outcome would greatly benefit the implied value of Inmarsat. It is unclear whether
there will be a definitive decision by the FCC ahead of the UK court review of the Scheme towards the end of
November. We very much doubt any activist hedge fund will have any power to block the Scheme without a
definitive announcement by the FCC. Moreover, we have found no precedent of a Scheme being blocked without
the presence of a counter bid. We think if put forward to a judge, he/she would need to determine whether a
reasonable person would approve the Scheme. We think that it will be difficult for any court to block the Scheme on
the basis of a possible Ligado decision given that it has been pending for 1,000 days and counting. Furthermore it
is also highly likely that a positive decision by the FCC for Ligado will be appealed by certain US government
agencies thereby creating a further delay to any final decision. We remain confident that the Scheme will be
approved at the end of November and that the ISAT bonds will be redeemed shortly thereafter at a premium to
current levels.
HATAFI 5.25% November 2022 (“Haya”) was for a second month a significant performer for the fund with a
positive contribution of +12bps. As we highlighted last month there had been concern that Haya would lose its all-
important contract with Sareb, a Spanish government agency “bad bank” dealing with distressed mortgages. At the
end of October the company announced that it had been awarded a €15bn contract by Sareb lasting until mid-2022
and its bond priced jumped because this removed the overhanging risk of the company losing the entire contract.
Haya will continue working with Sareb under its existing contract until December 31, 2019 and will support Sareb
on the progressive transition to the new business model under a new contract that will be effective from January
1st, 2020. Importantly no upfront payment will be made although we expect margins on the new contract will be
lower than the existing agreement but this could be offset by the provision of other ancillary services provided by
Haya. This is a significant positive for the company and we now expect its current owner, Cerberus, to complete a
sale of the entire business in the near future. We believe that there is further upside to the Haya bond price given
the wording of the bond documentation related to a “change of control” event; in our opinion it is possible that a new
owner would need to repay these notes at par as part of any transaction to acquire the company. Therefore, we
remain comfortable holding Haya bonds in the low 90s given the near term upside potential to par.
Now let’s turn to the negative side of the ledger. HEMABV 0 July 2022 (“HEMA”) was the largest detractor with a
negative contribution of -23bps. This followed the company reporting weaker than expected Q2 results. While the
top line performance was in line with our expectations, earnings were lower because of higher than expected costs.
Net debt of €773m was €15m higher than Q1, and Senior/ Sub net leverage increased to 5.9x/7.4x from 5.5x/6.8x.
We were surprised by the movement in costs and by management’s reluctance to provide any details on current
trading conditions. However, notwithstanding the earnings disappointment we were surprised by the extent of the
bond price movement with the secured bonds falling c.14 points. The underlying picture wasn’t so bad and we felt
this move was overdone. We have updated our forecasts and now assume lower EBITDA growth over the next two
years, but with lfls remaining positive and the majority of the €20mn targeted cost-savings yet to accrue we still see
upside of c. €13mn between current LTM EBITDA (€105mn) and FY21 estimated (€118mn). Net leverage will still
be high at that stage at 4.7x/6.0x in our model, but we believe liquidity will remain adequate and we see positives in
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2020 from a return of earnings momentum and a potentially deleveraging bakery disposal.
The company also finally confirmed that its shareholder Ramphastos will fund the redemption of the remaining
Holdco PIKs (€49mn) which we view as a positive in that, while it doesn't directly impact Opco leverage, it sends a
positive signal of shareholder support and removes the risk (for now) of a draw on Opco resources.
In related news Ramphastos confirmed ahead of the release of HEMA’s Q2 numbers that it was subject to a money
laundering investigation by Italian authorities. Ramphastos has emphatically denied any financial irregularities in its
c. €2.5m investment in an Italian tech start-up (Talenta Labs) in 2017, and expressed confidence that it will be
exonerated by an investigation by Calabrian authorities. This story appeared to be dismissed by the market as
largely irrelevant to HEMA’s credit profile ahead of the release of Q2 numbers but received more attention
afterwards and probably contributed to some of the consequent bond price weakness.
The HEMA bond price saw further downward pressure in early November with its secured bonds falling by another
3-4 points on a poor market technical for the bonds; in response we decided to exit our position and move on. This
was clearly a very disappointing outcome for us but given the uncertainties facing the company and its shareholder
it was the prudent thing to do.
RDC 4.875% June 2022 (“Valaris”) was another notable detractor for the fund with a negative contribution of -
16bps. Sentiment towards off-shore oil services remains weak and bond prices remain pressured. Towards the
end of October the company reported better than expected earnings: Adjusted EBITDA was $35mn, well above the
consensus estimate of $18mn. The beat was mostly driven by lower costs. The company stated that it has reached
$115mn of synergies versus c. $90mn included in our estimates, and we adjust the pace of synergy generation
going forward. Net debt increased $13mn q/q, mostly due to buying back discounted debt with cash. Liquidity
remains solid at $1.56bn in our opinion. We expect liquidity to decline to under $700mn by year-end 2021. During
the earnings call management stated that its contract awards and extensions demonstrate the recent increase in
customer activity for future offshore projects, particularly for deep water work beginning in the mid-2020 and
beyond. We view this update positively.
From our perspective we remain comfortable holding Valaris 2022 bonds on a cash price of c.60 given the group’s
comfortable liquidity profile out to end 2021. Valaris is currently 100% unsecured funded, including an unsecured
$1.7bn RCF, with scope to issue up to $1bn of secured notes it has the financial flexibility to tender for bonds
across the curve at a significant discount to par; and the current market value of its public bonds is comfortably
covered by the valuation of its rigs based on our conservative valuation basis. Our colleague Steffen Dietel
recently published a detailed note on Valaris highlighting the investment opportunity for investors. This research
note is available on request.
CDRSM 7.625% November 2021 (“Codere”) was another significant detractor with a negative contribution of -
12bps. Bonds reacted negatively following the company reporting “accounting inconsistencies” at some of its
LatAm subsidiaries, including its important Mexican unit. The company disclosed the inconsistencies on 7th
October and guided for a c. €20mn impact on FY19 EBITDA. We spoke to the company immediately after this
announcement and we were informed that a forensic accounting review had been launched by an independent
auditor appointed by the company. S&P responded to this development by downgrading Codere to 'B-' (from 'B')
with a negative outlook, although this brought it in-line with Moody's which downgraded to B/stable in September
before the latest setback.
The company provided a further update on 14th November when it released its Q3 numbers. The accounting
investigation revealed that after correcting for the inconsistencies primarily affecting Mexico and Colombia, H1/19
operating revenue for the group would be reduced by EUR 10.4mn and adjusted EBITDA by EUR 16.5mn. In
Mexico, revenues were being overstated using primarily jackpot provisions, while costs were understated as a
result of inadequate monthly accrual of certain costs. They confirmed that the investigation detected no impact on
cash outflows, and no impact on its other operating regions. However, following the conclusion of the accounting
investigation the company now expects lower growth for H2 earnings and as a result revised down its FY EBITDA
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guidance to €245-250mn from €280-290m previously – we had expected guidance to be formally revised down to
€260-270m following the earlier update so this was a further disappointment although we believe that the new
guidance errs on the side of caution for obvious reasons.
The reported “accounting inconsistencies” was a surprising development and obviously disappointing from a
creditors perspective. However, management has responded quickly to resolve this issue and seem to have put
into effect systems and controls that will greatly reduce the risk of such an event reoccurring. We applaud this swift
response but nonetheless recognise that the company’s refinancing plans have received a serious setback near
term. The Q3 numbers highlighted a disappointing earnings performance driven by a weakening in Mexican
EBITDA margin and some revenue weakness in Spain. Positively, we note that more than 95% of cash from
Argentina has been repatriated in 2019 and that total liquidity remains robust at €138.1mn including cash of €95mn.
Furthermore, despite the cut in FY EBITDA guidance we expect year end leverage of around 3.2x, which we view
as sustainable. Therefore, despite the latest setback we remain comfortable holding Codere risk on a c.12% bid
yield.
We urge investors to contact the investment team should they require any further information on any of the names
appearing on the main performance list contributor’s table on page 1 of this report.
We thank all of our investors for their continued support. Lee Robinson and Philip Crate
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Altana Corporate Bond Fund UCITS
Risk Report* (USD Data)
Gross Summary Statistics
Since management restructuring: Jan 2016
ACBF UCITS
Annualised Volatility
+1.59%
Downside Deviation*
+1.29%
Skewness -0.39
Kurtosis 4.17
Min 1D Return -0.55%
Max 1D Return +0.57%
Max Drawdown -2.40%
Sharpe Ratio 2.64
October 2019
Annualised Volatility
+1.85%
Skewness -1.10
Kurtosis 1.65
Min 1D Return -0.29%
Max 1D Return 0.21%
Max Drawdown -0.85%
Sharpe Ratio ** -0.76
Correlation with S&P 500:
1 Month 0.44
3 Month 0.27
All 0.22
Drawdown
ACBF UCITS Strategy Histogram of Daily Returns
*Using Gross Daily Performance Data **Strategy figure shows the performance of ACBF UCITS (since 05/2014 launch). Please refer to Appendix I – Strategy performance graph and risk report since fund inception
For any further information, please contact [email protected]. Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Altana Wealth Limited (“Altana”) , which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) in the United Kingdom (FRN: 532912). The Altana Corporate Bond Fund (“ACBF”) is managed by Altana Wealth Limited and is a Sub-Fund of Altana UCITS Funds Plc an investment company with variable capital incorporated with limited liability in Ireland with registered number 540012 and established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities).collective investment in transferable securities under Directive 2009/62/EC. The Fund is a recognised scheme for the purposes of section 264 the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom. Most of the protections provided by the United Kingdom regulatory system, and compensation under the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme, will not be available. The contents of this factsheet are directed only at persons who would be defined as Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparty clients under the rules of the FCA rules. The services provided by Altana are only available to persons classified as Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties (as defined in the FCA rules). As such, no reliance should be placed on anything contained in this factsheet by persons other than Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparty clients. In particular, persons who are Retail Clients (as defined in the FCA rules), should not act or rely upon the information provided in this factsheet and the services referred to herein will not be available to such persons. They are advised to contact their Financial Adviser. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. It is the responsibility of every person reading this factsheet to satisfy himself as to the full observance of the laws of any relevant country, including obtaining any government or other consent which may be required or observing any other formality which needs to be observed in that country. This document does not constitute an offer to sell, solicit or buy any investment product or service, and is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any product or service. The investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all recipients and you should seek professional advice if you are in doubt. Clients should obtain legal/taxation advice suitable to their particular circumstances. This document may not be reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) to any other person without our prior written permission. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Altana does not represent or warrant its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. All estimates and opinions in this document constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. Altana will not be responsible for the consequences of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein, and expressly disclaims any liability, including incidental or consequential damages, arising from any errors or omissions. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks, including but not limited to, currency exchange and market risks, fluctuations in value, liquidity risk and, where applicable, possible loss of principal invested. The information contained in this document is merely a brief summary of key aspects of the Fund. More complete information on the Fund can be found in the prospectus or key investor information document. These documents constitute the sole binding basis for the purchase of Fund units. Issued by Altana Wealth November 2019.
