Monthly Survey of General Business Conditions: January 25, 1921 Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 1 (Jan., 1921), pp. 1-6 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1928837 . Accessed: 15/05/2014 15:34 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. . The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Review of Economics and Statistics. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 194.29.185.26 on Thu, 15 May 2014 15:34:18 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
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Monthly Survey of General Business Conditions: January 25, 1921Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 1 (Jan., 1921), pp. 1-6Published by: The MIT PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1928837 .
Accessed: 15/05/2014 15:34
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
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R ECENT movements of the curves of our Index Chart indicate that the decline of commodity
prices has passed its most violent stages. It is improb- able that the downward movement of wholesale com- modity prices and also of the volume of business will be prolonged beyond the spring months.
The nature of the period of business revival following the present period of liquidation will probably be indi- cated by the course taken by short-time interest rates, curve C. If we are to have a marked revival in business, we must first have a considerable decline in rates on commercial paper; and unless low rates continue for a year or more a revival in business can scarcely develop into a boom.
The conclusions stated above are based upon the movements recorded in our current Index Chart and upon an analysis of the relations found to obtain be- tween the similar curves shown on our chart for the period I903-I4.
Recent movements of security prices and money rates indicate that liquidation has passed its most acute stage. Furthermore, in December curve B, representing busi- ness, declined less sharply than in October and Novem- ber. As was the case in November, the change is due principally to the fall of wholesale prices, although cor- rected outside clearings also declined. Bradstreet's index number for January i was $I2.66, a drop of 7 per cent
from the figure for December i. Compared with the I3
per cent recession in November, this indicates a distinct slowing-up in the downward trend of commodity prices.
In pre-war business cycles the fall of wholesale prices in times of business recession, according to Bradstreet's
NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APL MAY JUEMUY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APL MAY JUNE JUY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. wDEC.
19 18 | 9 99 | 1920
INDEX CHART. The items locating curves A, B, and C all refer to complete calendar months and the points are plotted in the middle of the spaces allotted to the months.
EXPLANATION: Each of the three curves on the Index Chart is obtained by averaging a group of statistical series, each group being composed of series homogeneous in character; i.e., when corrected for the seasonal influence and normal growth, the series of each group move in the same direction (up- ward or downward) at the same time. The series were all expressed in com- parable units before averages were taken.
Our interpretation of the fluctuations of the three curves of the current index chart is based upon the relationship which was discovered among simi- lar curves for the period I903-I4. All three curves had wave movements, but the upward swings and the crests of the waves were not reached simultane- ously. The major movements of speculation preceded those of business by 4 to io months, and the movements of business preceded those of banking by 2 to 8 months. The sequence of movements holding for upward swings and crests also held for downward swings and troughs.
The rise of curve A, representing speculation, between February and October iQ9I forecasted the rise of curve B, representing business, which took place between April iQ9I and March I920. Low interest rates, curve C, facilitated expansion of both speculation and business until the federal re-
serve banks, in November i919, inaugurated their policy of increasing rediscount rates.
The persistent decline of curve A and the equally persistent rise of curve C, both movements beginning in November igig, forecasted that a decline of business activity and commodity prices, curve B, would be inaugurated in the spring of I920. In fact business unsettlement was noticeable in April and it has increased since that month while various indices of commodity prices have receded since May. The existence of the federal reserve system and the action of the banks in increasing rates and restricting credit made it appear very unlikely that the business readjustment indicated by the index chart would be accompanied by a financial panic. At this writing, we have passed the time in the business cycle when a financial panic would have occurred, if we were to have one.
Finally, the decline of curve C and the horizontal movement of curve A, both beginning in July i920, indicate that the recession of business, curve B, now in progress will end in April i92i. The immediate prospect for the next three months is a slowing down in the decline of wholesoe commodity prices, an easier money market, and increasing security prices.
1 The form of presentation of our "Monthly Survey of General Business Conditions" has been changed from that used in I920. Under the first head, "The Index," are given our forecast drawn from the current Index Chart, the reasons for the forecast, and a statement of the qualifications that appear to be necessary because of factors not covered by the statistics used in the construction of the chart. Under the second head, " Economic Summary," are presented the current statistics that throw important light on the situation, and a discussion of the influences and conditions, not statistically measurable, that appear to be significant. Under the third head, " Statistical Summary," are given the current statistical data which we use in our analysis and Index Chart.
[EI J
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index, lasted from I5 to i8 months. The great violence of the decline of the last 8 months, however, makes it appear unlikely that the recession of prices now in progress will continue beyond the shorter interval, 15
months. Fifteen months from the date of the high record for Bradstreet's index, February i, i920, brings us to May I, I92I. It is improbable, therefore, that the general downward movement will be prolonged beyond April I92I.
Judging from the movement of outside bank clear- ings in pre-war periods of liquidation, the decline in the volume of business lasted from II to I3 months. In I920 the high point of outside clearings, corrected for seasonal variation, was in March and there has been a fairly steady decline since that month. Counting i i to I3 months from March I920 we get the dates Febru- ary-April I92i as the probable time of completion of the phase of the business cycle - industrial crisis and liquidation of commodities - now in progress. The data supporting our forecast of October I5 "that the recession of business, curve B, now in progress will end in April I92I " are given in the accompanying table.
ELAPSED TIME AND EXTENT OF DECLINES OF WHOLESALE
COMMODITY PRICES AND OUTSIDE BANK CLEARINGS DUR-
ING PRE-WAR PERIODS OF LIQUIDATION.
Subsequent dates . Per cent of Dates of maxma ominimaoElapsed tme decline
Bradstreet's Indices of Commodity Prices
Mar. I, I 903 July I, I 904 I6 mos. 6.2
Mar. I, I907 June I, i908 I5 mos. I5.4
Jan. I, i910 May I, i9ii i6 mos. 8.3
Dec. I, I9I2 June I, I9I4 i8 mos. 9.7 { May I,I92I I5 mos. 39-3
Feb. I, I920 Aug. I, I92I i8 mos.
Bank Clearings Outside New York City t
July I903 July I904 I 2 mos. 8.o
Jan. I907 Dec. I907 II mos. 26.7
Mar. i910 Apr. i91 I3 mos. 7.8
Oct. I9I2 Nov. I9I3 I3 mos. 8.i
Feb. I92I II mos. i6.8 t A pr. I92I I3 mos.
* Percentage decline from February i, I1920 to January I, I92I.
t Corrected for seasonal movement. t Percentage decline from March I920 to December I920.
In former business crises and depressions there oc- curred a rapid decline of rates on commercial paper, followed by a more or less extended period of low rates. Thus following the crises of I1893, 1 896, 1 899, 190o3,
1907, 1910, and 1913 interest rates declined between 1.70 and 4.34 points during periods ranging from 2 to 8 months. After the decline, rates remained low for periods lasting from I5 to 29 months, with the single exception of the period of 5 months in 1914 when a period of low money rates was terminated by the out- break of war. The data relative to the course of interest
rates in crises and depressions since I 893 are given in the following table:
THE COURSE OF THE AVERAGE MONTHLY RATE OF INTEREST
Sept. I903 6.75 April I904 4.75 23 " 6 t Oct. 1907 7.33 May i908 4.25 I7 "d5 "
Sept. i910 6.3I Jan. I9II 4.6I 20 2
July I9I3 6.66 Feb. I9I4 4.38 5 "? 1
Sept. I9I4 7.60 Mar. I915 3.93 29 5
Aug. i9i8 6.22 Feb. I919 5.4I i6 6
Aug. I920 8.25 ...... .... ......
* Except for one month, October i900, when the rate was 6.o8. t Below 5 per cent for I3 months of the period. T No quotations in November and December. ? Interrupted by the war rise.
The data indicate that a period of cheap money lasting upwards of a year usually precedes any extended revival or boom in business.
II. ECONOMIC SUMMARY
SPECULATION
The volume of sales on the New York Stock Exchange last month was 24,I40,000 shares an increase of about 9 per cent from the November figure. During the fifteen years I903-I7 the number of shares traded in December was usually about 6 per cent below the No- vember sales. New York bank clearings increased from I9,430 millions in November to 20,980 millions in De- cember, or about 8 per cent, nearly twice the nor- mal seasonal change.
Between December 3, when the highest quotations for the month were recorded, and December 2I the average price of twenty railroad stocks fell 7.75 points, or nearly IO per cent; during the same period the average price of twenty industrial stocks fell io.88 points, or I4 per cent. Bond prices showed a similar, though less marked, fluc- tuation; Dow, Jones & Co.'s average for forty bonds falling from $76.23 on December 4 to $73.24 on Decem- ber 23. Industrial bonds and high grade railroad bonds were somewhat less affected by this movement than other issues. During the last third of the month stocks recovered 3 or 4 points, on the average, and bonds a little less. Further advances in January carried bonds above their prices of December 4; while stocks, both rails and industrials were on January 20 only a point or two below their high quotations in December.
These gains have not been wholly due to a discounting of expected business revival. There has apparently been considerable re-buying by those who sold earlier to record losses for tax purposes, a moderate amount of buying for investment, especially of bonds, and some
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trading on the prospect of lower rates for call money -
an expectation which has since been fulfilled. It is probable, moreover, that speculative interests have been trying to extract what comfort they could from the recent activities of Congress. Nevertheless, the greater buoyancy of the industrial issues seems to in- dicate that the recent trend of security prices is, in considerable degree, a reflection of reviving business confidence - a feeling we believe to be justified.
BUSINESS
The volume of business, as measured by bank clear- ings outside New York City, which in the past gener- ally increased about 3 per cent in December, was this year only about one per cent above the November figure. In December clearings of the New England and middle states increased more than the average seasonal amount while those of the southern and western states declined considerably. The following table gives a comparison of the actual bank clearings for various sections in December with those of March, the high record month. This year outside clearings fell about I 2 per cent although December clearings are usually 6 per cent above those for March.
For some commodities, such as hides and textiles, liquidation appears to have about run its course,
OUTSIDE CLEARINGS: ACTUAL FIGURES
(Unit: $I,000,000) Ratio of
Section March December Dec. to Mar.
Middle * ..... .. 3,87I 3,97I I02.5
New England ........ i,852 I177I 95.6 Middle West ... 5,468 4,579 83.7 Pacific . . 8io I,721 95. I1
Other West .......... 25722 2,003 73.6 Southern ..... 3185 2,698 84.7
Total ............ i8,908 i6,743 88.3
* Excluding New York City.
although some further minor readjustments between complementary lines may be necessary; in others, such as non-ferrous metals and grains, the process seems to be nearly complete; but the prices of certain commodities, notably building materials, furniture, and coal, are as high as they were a year ago, and therefore such prices are out of line with basic conditions. We therefore expect further significant price recessions in some lines before spring.
Evidences of reviving confidence are appearing in those lines where liquidation has made most progress. Retailers, in some sections at least, report an encourag- ing response to recent price reductions, and that their stocks are not above normal. There are indications that the deadlock of recent months is gradually passing, although buying in both wholesale and retail markets will doubtless be cautious for several months to come.
BANKING
In general, banking developments continue to be in the right direction. The reserve ratio of the combined
federal reserve banks has increased each week since December 23, while total bill holdings have declined. Without a single exception, those districts that have been relatively large borrowers have improved their position. The commercial paper rate is now 74 per cent with a downward tendency; call money is quoted at 6 per cent, with transactions reported on consider- ably better terms; and time money is lower than for many months. This tendency towards easier money rates will probably continue as the liquidation of the slow loans now held by the banks proceeds.
Between December 23 and December 30 paper dis- counted by Boston, Philadelphia and Cleveland for five other reserve banks in the South and West declined from I20.2 millions to II5.3 millions; and between December 30 and January 2I the figure fell to 6I.6 millions. During the last named period the adjusted reserve ratios for Dallas, Minneapolis, and Kansas City rose from I7.4, 27.8, and 25.2 to I9.1, 34.5, and 37.7, respectively. On the whole, therefore, the banking situation showed satisfactory improvement in Decem- ber and this improvement has been continued in January.
DoMEvSTIC PRODUCTION AND FoREIGN TRADE
The problem of the role that our foreign trade, espe- cially exports, will play in the immediate future has taken a leading place in estimates of the business out- look for I92I. How important an element in our total trade is the foreign market? How can exports of our raw materials to Europe be financed in I92I ? These are questions having an important bearing on the future course of commodity prices.
The relative importance of the foreign to the domestic market for various industries and for different commodi- ties varies greatly. An exact statement of the relative importance of the two markets cannot be made for numerous commodities entering largely into our export business, such as textiles, leather, and lumber, because comparable export and production figures are not avail- able. There are other commodities, however, for which comparable figures of the physical quantity of exports and production are available. The following table gives the percentages that the quantity exported of certain commodities bears to total production of those com-
TABLE I. - RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS TO DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION OF CERTAIN COMMODITIES IN THE FISCAL YEAR
1920 OR THE CALENDAR YEAR 1919
(Unitt: one per cent)
Percentage |Percentage of exports .of exports commodity to produc- om odty to produc-
modities in the United States in the fiscal year ending June 30, I920, or the calendar year i9i9.
It will be seen from Table I that the foreign market is relatively of great importance for tobacco, copper, cotton, wheat, meat, and steel; but the foreign market is also of as great or greater importance for certain manufactured articles not covered by the table.
TABLE II. - VALUE OF MERCHANDISE PRODUCED, EXPORTED,
AND IMPORTED BY THE UNITED STATES IN I909, I9I4, AND I9I9*
Timber cut ......................... .68 .52b .79 c Fisheries ........................... d d d Transportation:
R.R. Gross Freight receipts ..... .... i. 8o 2.o8 f 3.56 9
Total ........... ......... 2I.40 24.49 57.73
Exports of domestic merchandise ....... 1 .70 2.07 7.75 Imports of merchandise ....... ....... I.48 I.79 3.90
Total ........... ......... 3.i8 3.86 ii.65
* In general for agricultural products, farm values are taken; for minerals, values at the mine; for manufactures, the difference between costs of mate- rials and selling values at the factory; and for timber, value of logs at the mill. Export values refer to the port of export and import values to the foreign markets.
a. Estimated by applying the following formula: (Value added by mfg. in 19i4) (Index of production in i919) (Index of prices in i919).
b. IPI5; value for I914 not available. C. i9i8; value for i919 not available. d. Data lacking but the figure is believed to be less than half a billion. e. An average for the two fiscal years ending June 30, i909 and i9i0.
Earnings for i909 were $i,68o,ooo,ooo and for i910 $i,93o,ooo,ooo. Returns of small roads are included in both years.
f. An average for the two fiscal years ending June 3o, I914 and I9I5. Earnings for I914, which exclude small roads, totaled $2,IIo,000,000; earnings for all roads in I9I5 totaled $2,050,000,000.
g. Calendar year earnings of roads having an annual operating revenue of more than $i,00oooo. These roads regularly include over 90 per cent of the entire railroad mileage of the country.
The relative importance of foreign trade to domestic producers may be judged on another basis. If we esti- mate the total value of exportable commodities pro- duced in the United States in I909, I914, and i919 we get 2i.40 billion dollars, 24.49 billions, and 57.73 bil- lions, respectively (Table II). In this estimate freight is added to values of products at points of production in order to get values at points of consumption. These values may be compared with the values of domestic merchandise exported, amounting to I.70 billion dol- lars, 2.07 billions, and 7.75 billions in the three years I909, I9I4, and i919 respectively. The ratios of the value of exports to the value of exportable merchandise in the three years were 7.9 per cent, 8.5 per cent, and I3.4 per cent, respectively. These percentages indicate that the relative importance of our foreign trade has greatly increased since i909 and I9I4.
Our exports have increased in physical quantity as well as in value during recent years. Indices of the quantity of exports (as computed by the REvIEw) in the fiscal years i919 and I920 are i40 for each year, rel- ative to the average for I9II-I4 as ioo. This entire analysis, therefore, indicates that our foreign trade is apt to be an important factor in the business develop- ment of the coming year. Whether it is to be a stimu- lating or depressing factor should become evident in the next two or three months.
III. STATISTICAL SUMMARY
(A) THE SPECULATIVE GROUP
New York City bank clearings for December were 20,980 million dollars, a rise of 8 per cent over I9,430
million dollars for November. The normal seasonal change, however, between these months is an increase of 4 or 5 per cent. Usually, New York clearings for Jan-
ACTUAL ITEMS OF FUNDAMENTAL SERIES OF BUSINESS STATISTICS, I9I9-20 *
GROUP A GROUP B
New York Price of indus- Shares traded Building permits Yield on ten Price of twenty Outside Bradstreet's Bureau of clearings trial stocks t (Units of (Units of railroad bonds railroad stocks t clearings prices * $ Labor prices (Units of (Units of $i) I,ooo,ooo shares) $i,ooo.ooo) (Units of one (Units of $I) (Units of (Units of $I) (Base: average
$I'ooo,000,ooo) per cent) $i'0,ooo,ooooo) for 1913 = IoO)
* Data are monthly averages or aggregates except for two series: Brad- street's prices relate to the first day of the month, and unfilled orders of the United States Steel Corporation to the last day of the month.
t In the REVIEW for June, I920 these prices were revised. They have
been computed throughout by securing monthly means of the daily average prices, at the close, of 20 stocks for each month, rather than by taking means of the highest and lowest daily averages for each month, as formerly.
t The item for January i, I92I is I2.66.
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uary are about 6 per cent above those for December, while in February there is a sharp drop of about 22 per cent from January.
The average price of twenty industrial stocks was $7I.90
in December, compared with $78.40 for the preceding month, a decrease of 8 per cent. The average price of twenty railroad stocks also declined about 8 per cent from November to December; the actual averages were $80.20 in the former month, and $74.20 in the latter.
As the following comparison shows, the indices for both industrial and railroad stocks now stand at about the same point that they did three years ago. Within these three years, however, the industrial stock index showed a rise of nearly 44 points, followed by a drop of similar size; while the railroad stocks rose less than I4 points.
Average price of Average price of 20 industrial stocks 20 railroad stocks
Dec. I9I7 .... $70.20 Dec. I9I7 .... $75.40
Oct. I9I9 .... I I4.00 May i919 .... 88.70
Dec. I920 . ... 7I.90 Dec. I920 . ... 74.20
The number of shares sold on the New York Stock Ex- change was 22,070,000 in November and 24,I40,000 in December. During those two months the volume of transactions was almost twice as great as that through- out the six months period immediately preceding, when sales averaged less than 13,500,000 shares per month.
The average yield on ten American railroad bonds was .0o per cent in December, compared with 5.66 per cent in November and 6.28 last June. Dow, Jones and Co.'s averages show declines for the prices of all classes of bonds during November and December. The December prices of railroad and industrial bonds are 5 or 6 per cent below those for October; for public utility bonds, the decrease was 8 per cent. rhe indices for October, November, and December follow:
The value of building permits issued for twenty leading cities for December was $38,600,ooo, a decrease of 2
per cent from $3g,o00,ooo in November. In December and January there are normally successive declines ot 8 or 9 per cent in the volume of new building. The value of building permits issued has been falling off for over a year; the December I920 figure is 55 per cent below that recorded twelve months previous.
(B) THE BUSINESS GROUP
Bank clearings of the United States outside New York City increased only about one per cent from November to December, while the normal seasonal change is a rise of 3 per cent; the actual totals for the two months were i6,570 million dollars and i6,740 million dollars, respectively. January clearings are usually only slightly greater than those of December.
Bradstreet's index of wholesale commodity prices for January i was $I 2.66, a drop of 7 per cent from the pre- ceding month. The index fell 25 per cent, or one-fourth, during the last quarter of the year, and it has declined 39 per cent since February I920. The current figure is the lowest recorded since October I, i9i6, and is only 37 per cent above the average for I9I3.
The first table on page 6 shows a comparison of Bradstreet's prices for February I, I920, December i,
I920, and January i, I92I.
Between February i, I920 and January i, I921, the greatest declines 66, 59, and 50 per cent, respectively -took place in the "other," textiles, and naval stores
ACTUAL ITEMS OF FUNDAMENTAL SERIES OF BUSINESS STATISTICS, I9I9-20*
GROUP B GROUP C
Business failures importss Production of Unfilled orders invest'ts, etc ouf's Deposits of Rate on four-to- Rate on sixty-to- Dividend (Bradstreet) (Units of pig iron U. S. S. C.* New York bankst New York bankst six months paper ninety day paper payments
(Units of $i,000,000) (Units of (Units of (Units of (Units of (Units of (Units of (Units of one failure) i|ooo tons) |,ooo,ooo tons) $1,ooo,oooooo) $I,000,000,000) one per cent) one per cent) $I'ooUniso)
* Data are monthly averages or aggregates except for two series: Brad- street's prices relate to the first day of the month, and unfilled orders of the United States Steel Corporation to the last day of the month.
t Clearing House banks, including (i) members of the federal reserve bank, and (2) state banks and trust companies not in the federal reserve system.
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Chemicals and drugs I.I9 I.I3 I.II 93 98 Other groups . ...... I.23 .62 .42 34 68
All groups . .... .87 13.63 I 2.66 6i 93
groups. The figures for hides and leather fell 36 per cent; that for oils, 34 per cent; that for metals, 33 per cent; and that for foods, 20 per cent. Comparatively moderate decreases were recorded for chemicals and drugs (7 per cent) and for building materials (9 per cent).
Comparison of the group indices for December i and January i shows that the only large recessions were those of 32 per cent in "other," io per cent in textiles, 6 per cent in foods, and 5 per cent in hides and leather.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics index of wholesale commodity prices for December was i89, a decrease of 9 per cent from 207 in November, and of 3I per cent from the record high figure of 272 attained last May.
Following are the group index numbers for October, November, and December:
October November December
Farm products .... ..... i82 i65 I44
Food, etc .204 I95 I72
Cloths and clothing .257 234 220
Fuel and lighting .282 258 236 Metals and metal products .i84 I70 I57 Lumber and building materials. 3I3 274 266 Chemicals and drugs. 2i6 207 i88 House-furnishing goods .37I 369 346 Miscellaneous .229 220 205
All commodities .225 207 i89
A comparison of the figures for November and December shows that farm products and foods exhibited the greatest declines - I3 and I2 per cent respectively. With one exception, the other groups showed decreases ranging from 6 to 9 per cent. Building materials de- creased only 3 per cent.
The November index for all commodities, 189, is 31
per cent below the record high figure, 272, attained last May. This drop is mainly due to declines of 41 per cent in farm products, 40 per cent in foods, and 37 per cent in cloths and clothing. Substantial declines also took place in four other cases -22 per cent for lumber and building materials, 19 per cent for metals and metal products, 17 per cent for the group of miscellaneous
commodities, and I3 per cent for chemicals and drugs. Two groups advanced during the seven months - fuel and lighting rose a fraction of one per cent and house- furnishing goods increased 5 per cent.
Bradstreet's number of business failures for December was I763, an increase of 62 per cent from io88 for the preceding month. December failures are usually about 20 per cent above those for November, and in January there generally occurs a similar rise from December. The number of business failures has been increasing steadily since last May. The average for the year I920
is 7i6 per month. The volume of imports of merchandise into the United
States in December was 266 million dollars, against 32I
million dollars in November, a decrease of 7 per cent. The value of exports was 720 million dollars, compared with 677 million dollars in November; this was an in- crease of 6 per cent. The favorable trade balance for December was 454 million dollars; in November it was 354 million dollars.
Pig-iron production in the United States during the month of December was 2,704,000 tons, a decrease of 8 per cent from 2,935,000 tons in November and of i8 per cent from 3,293,000 tons in October. Generally, the tonnage for December and for January is slightly above that for November.
Unfilled orders of the United States Steel Corporation were 8,I50,000 tons at the end of December, a decrease of io per cent from 9,020,000 tons on November 30.
The unfilled tonnage has declined steadily from I1,I20,-
ooo tons on July 3I - a drop of 27 per cent.
(C) THE BANKING GROUP
The average loans, discounts, and investments of New York City Clearing House banks and trust companies were 5,230 million dollars in December, slightly lower than the November total of 5,260 million dollars, and 3.7 per cent below the record figure of 5,430,000 for October. The average deposits for the same group of banks showed a slight decrease from 4,040 million dollars in November to 4,010 million dollars in December.
The average rate of interest on four-to-six months com- mercial paper in New York remained practically un- changed last month, being 8.oo per cent, compared with 8.o8 per cent in November. The average rate on sixty-to- ninety day commercial paper was 7.88 per cent in De- cember, and 7.92 per cent in November. During the last half of 920, commercial paper rates have varied but little, fluctuating within a range of 4 per cent. During pre-war years, rates usually remained fairly constant from October to December, but in January and Feb- ruary there were generally sharp declines.
Dividend payments by industrial corporations are an- nounced as 51,5oo,ooo for December, compared with $53,300,000, $59,500,000, and $70,600,000 for the corresponding months of 1 91I9, 1 91I8, and 1 91I7.
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